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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 03 Jan 2020, 01:19:10


HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 03 Jan 2020, 10:09:51

Rate cuts, QE, GDP declining. It seems I’m pretty spot on


$29 trillion in pseudo currency injections have had quite the effect! Considering that this entire run up has been the result of corporate buy backs, with free central bank money, the out come is pretty predictable. Once earnings degrade, or the credit markets finally crack, as the exploding debt will require, these corporations will transition from buyers of their own stock to sellers. The out come will be phenomenal. Since less than 10% of the population own all of the market it will be hard to have any pity for them. Anyone still in this market is picking up nickels in front of a steam roller. The only question is; can the FED keep it going until the elections. The 10% are betting that it can; then of course when you own all the money in the world there is a tendency to be a little bit overly optimistic! After that will come capital controls, price controls, and every control imaginable. Then they can start picking up the pieces if they can find any, and the bodies of all the Wall Street skydivers. This is like watching a rerun of the Three Stooges that you have seen 12 times before. Not many surprises, but it is still somehow funny.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby marmico » Fri 03 Jan 2020, 12:15:37

BAU. Q4:2019 GDP - Blue Chip Consensus is 1.8%, Atlanta Fed is 2.3%, New York Fed is 1.1%.

https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/nowcast

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 03 Jan 2020, 12:34:10

Weekly GDP Nowcast: nyfed.org/GDPnowcast
Q4 2019 → 1.1%
Q1 2020 → 1.0%


Heading down
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 03 Jan 2020, 12:37:24

BREAKING: ISM Manufacturing Index comes in at 47.2 for December, the lowest since June 2009


Dam son
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 03 Jan 2020, 12:52:54

ISM New York business conditions 39.1 vs 50.4 prior
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Cog » Fri 03 Jan 2020, 15:16:26

Getting a real case of the blue balls waiting for this stock market crash I've been promised.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Yoshua » Fri 03 Jan 2020, 17:09:42

Armageddon wrote:BREAKING: ISM Manufacturing Index comes in at 47.2 for December, the lowest since June 2009


Dam son


QE isn't working anymore.

So what do we do now?
Ask shorty?

Ok, that was a bad joke.

Seriously, what the fuck do we do now?

Buy stocks?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 03 Jan 2020, 21:04:10

DO NOT CALL IT QE! Lol.. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York added $51.15 billion in temporary money to financial markets Friday.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 03 Jan 2020, 21:48:17

Fed balance sheet moves up to $4.174 trillion, highest level in 14 months, up $414 billion over the last 4 months.


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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 03 Jan 2020, 21:57:10

CEO and CFO confidence warned of the bad ISM all along. The overwhelming market hype over a bogus trade deal and Fed easing is typical #FOMO investor hope at the peak of a financial bubble. Corporate management knows what's really going on. The deterioration in the macro is real.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 03 Jan 2020, 22:30:34

TOYOTA DEC. U.S. AUTO SALES -6.1%, EST. +0.8%



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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 03 Jan 2020, 23:10:18

Rail Traffic Continues To Plunge Amid Industrial Recession

Total carloads for the week were 245,048 carloads, down 11.5% compared with the same week in 2018
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby EdwinSm » Sat 04 Jan 2020, 04:01:56

I guess that this is what we need to see in the face of Peak Oil constraints, and in light of the Weather Changes. People need to consume less and this indicates that may be happening.

Armageddon wrote:Rail Traffic....Total carloads for the week were 245,048 carloads, down 11.5% compared with the same week in 2018


On the other hand I had always assumed that this sort of decline would cause panic in the markets, but with the (stock) markets holding up we are in the best of all worlds regarding transitioning to a lower economic level without the economic panic.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 04 Jan 2020, 13:12:33

The manufacturing economy is crashing before the Boeing production halt.... Just wait for the January ISM, gonna be less than 45


When all else fails, they take us to war
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Cog » Sat 04 Jan 2020, 14:18:39

You know the stock market is closed today right?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 04 Jan 2020, 14:44:26

When all else fails, they take us to war


With the US now well on its way into a recession: construction is down, mining is down, the CASS freight index it down, manufacturing is down, debt is exploding, and GDP growth is stuck at a pathetic 2.1% they don't have much option. Rising unemployment will be following along shortly, and that will not be politically acceptable. With high quality oil no longer available to power us out of a down turn, flag waving and the creation of a bogy man are inevitable. Although war will be the worse route to take for the economy, it is the one with the highest distraction potential. It is the one that is always available, it is supported, and encouraged by the MIC, and it gives politicians a soap box from which to proselytize about their undying loyalty to the country. It is a guaranteed short term fix until the next election, and then they can all come piously to the ceremonies at Arlington, and plant flowers in memory of all those who died to keep the banks solvent. The mothers, and wives of those who sacrificed really appreciate the gesture.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Cog » Sat 04 Jan 2020, 15:19:22

You do know the definition of a recession right? Just checking because you seem confused shorty.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 04 Jan 2020, 15:26:13

GDP growth is stuck at a pathetic 2.1% they don't have much option. Rising unemployment will be following along shortly, and that will not be politically acceptable. With high quality oil no longer available to power us out of a down turn,


one sentence, three ridiculous errors. First of all the "pathetic" GDP increase is pretty much on the average quarterly increase since 2010 and the important part of that is "increase" which means by definition we are at least a half year from an official recession. Secondly unemployment is at an all time low, if it rises a bit it has a long, long way to go before it is problematic and finally the LTO being pumped in the US is as high quality as you can get....an assay of the average bbl is pretty close to Brent which is a world marker for top quality oil. Once again you show your ignorance about oil quality versus refineries specs.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 04 Jan 2020, 19:04:12

U.S. Auto Sales: Decimated In Disastrous And Dismal December
"Retail spending growth began to slow as we entered the fourth quarter. Collectively these trends suggest that the consumer may not be capable of single-handedly carrying the economy in 2020, which is why we are expecting another decline in new-vehicle sales.”

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-fina ... l-december

If this isn't a recession, it's the world's best imitation of one!

The next issue is: how long can the central banks keep the monetary system; glued, bubble gummed, duck taped, stapled together?
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