Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 01 Jan 2020, 02:55:47

Armageddon wrote:Consumer Confidence Disappoints As Hope Fades

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/con ... hope-fades


I don’t think our cornies in here are going to like 2020 very well by the way things are shaping up.

So, beyond the usual 5 minute cherry picking doomers use to get attention, consumer confidence has been roughly flat for 2019. Yeah, it's a total catastrophe. :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 7585
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 01 Jan 2020, 03:01:56

sparky wrote:.
There is little doubt a financial crash will happen in the near future
that's a normal , crash are the natural consequence of growth
the only question is not "how bad can it get " of course it will be really bad , that's what crashes are

the real question is ........can it break the international financial structure beyond repair

Funny how if you call a big market drop a "crash", still, the doomers are wrong a good 90% of the time.
And even that isn't a "financial" crash, re the whole financial system. The 2008-2009 great recession was, of course -- while it lasted. (Though often doomers have their own economic definitions and call the last decade of recovery a recession or even a depression, in the real world, calling a hamster an Elephant doesn't make it so.)

But even with that track record, as per usual, you claim "There is little doubt a financial crash will happen in the near future." Based on what? Endless bad calls means the next call must be right THIS time?

How about admitting that you THINK there will be a financial crash that is real bad yadda yadda, and give better reasons than "growth" to justify your opinion?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 7585
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 01 Jan 2020, 03:09:04

Armageddon wrote:A Major Bank Admits QE4 Has Started, And That Stocks Are Rising Because Of The Fed's Soaring Balance Sheet

What’s next, they going to tell us water is wet?

Fantastic citation, as per usual from you. :o

So why did stocks rise from late 2015 through August 2019 while the Fed balance sheet was falling over $700 billion? And why did stocks rise from Feb. 2018 to Aug 2019 while the Fed balance sheet was contracting at a meaningful clip (over $600 billion)?

Looks like since you're such a (self proclaimed) economic expert, you need to come up with new theories / conspiracies. (And learn to cite specific claims like an adult.)

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 7585
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 01 Jan 2020, 03:17:47

Armageddon wrote:Consumer Confidence Disappoints As Hope Fades

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/con ... hope-fades


I don’t think our cornies in here are going to like 2020 very well by the way things are shaping up.

Well, in 2019, the S&P 500 Index was up nearly 29%. That's without dividends.

https://www.macrotrends.net/2490/sp-500-ytd-performance

With dividends, that's 31.22%.

https://www.ytdreturn.com/on-s-p-500/

NOT exactly "a stock market crash", now was it? And nor did the economy crash, since you like to change horses midstream, re your claims of what you're talking about. 8)

So given you fill this thread with constant tales of imminent doom, why in the HELL should anyone care if you are (as per usual for the past 15 years) gloomy about 2020? :lol:

Congrats, however, on being, as Clint Eastwood's Dirty Harry character would say "a legend in your own mind". You'll always have that. :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 7585
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 01 Jan 2020, 10:01:13

A Major Bank Admits QE4 Has Started, And That Stocks Are Rising Because Of The Fed's Soaring Balance Sheet


What’s next, they going to tell us water is wet?


We are also receiving more and pages of meaningless drivel from the misinformation specialists. Their attempt to dissuade prudent decision making is falling on an ever increasing number of deaf ears. Like the central banks they are pushing on a string, and the string is getting shorter and shorter. The "let's just ignore reality" coupon is now past its "use by" date.

The chances are, QE4 is not going to have much impact. The number of pseudo dollars needed to give the economy a boost is growing exponentially. 2020 will be the year when central bank intervention will cease to have an effect. Printing additional currency into a contracting economy is just an act of desperation. The FED will be back to cutting rates before this new year, of a new decade, has ended. When they have reached zero the time value of money will have disappeared, and so also will have the bond markets. We are at the end of the oil age, and also the debt based currency system that was used to bring it about.

If energy inputs decline, or the cost in energy exceeds the value of net energy you get, then debts of every kind that can no longer be repaid and the whole system implodes.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/2020s ... ing-itself

James Kunstler gets it; It looks like a lot of other people arel also. We are now just hanging on by our finger nails!

Image
User avatar
shortonoil
False ETP Prophet
False ETP Prophet
 
Posts: 6530
Joined: Thu 02 Dec 2004, 03:00:00
Location: VA USA

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 01 Jan 2020, 10:28:31

In the last decade the US added nearly $11 trillion in debt while growing GDP by only $7 trillion.
In other words: Every $1 in growth came with over $1.5 in additional debt.


While the official unemployment rate is at 3.5% the labor force participation rate remains at decades lows with 96 million Americans not in the labor force.
User avatar
Armageddon
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5555
Joined: Wed 13 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: St.Louis, Mo

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 01 Jan 2020, 12:21:37

shortonoil wrote:James Kunstler gets it; It looks like a lot of other people arel also. We are now just hanging on by our finger nails!

If you have to cite the constantly wrong Kunstler, you're pretty desperate. He, like the other perma-doomers has been pretty much constantly wrong for decades. His Y2K call was epically stupid, and OBVIOUSLY stupid -- if he could have been bothered to consult anyone with some actual expertise in computers. :roll:

Of course, he made plenty of money selling things like "Y2K buckets", so there's that. :roll:

But I know, I know. It's always your NEXT call where the DOOOOOOOOOOOM will be seen. :lol:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 7585
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 01 Jan 2020, 13:00:08

Armageddon wrote:In the last decade the US added nearly $11 trillion in debt while growing GDP by only $7 trillion.
In other words: Every $1 in growth came with over $1.5 in additional debt.

While the official unemployment rate is at 3.5% the labor force participation rate remains at decades lows with 96 million Americans not in the labor force.

Your ignorance of economics re the labor force participation rate is typical for you. The demographics of the country are changing. There are far more retirees, for example. That does NOT imply some sort of "problem" with jobs outside your distortion field of ignorance. Especially one demonstrating any sort of SHORT term doom. Longer term, funding social security to the level people expect re benefits is an issue. If however, nothing is done and benefits are reduced at some point to 75 or 80% of current benefits, it doesn't exactly spell armageddon, though it will piss off a lot of seniors.

Of course, GDP is something measured annually (annual economic activity), while you're talking about total debt accumulated over many decades. Mixing apples and oranges, despite your "expertise" in economics. 8) (I know, I know, selling instadoom constantly is hard work.)

If you're going to whine about debt, use a comparable statistic to compare wealth: like assets. Like any accountant WITH THE FIRST CLUE does on something called a BALANCE SHEET.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases ... eet/chart/

Now, per the Fed, the US household and nonprofits had assets increase from $77.4 trillion a decade ago, to $130 trillion in Q3 2019 (latest figure they give, but given the trend, likely more in Q4).

And how about liabilities for that group? They only increased $2.1 trillion over the same period.

So let's get a ratio for those. 130 - 77.4 = 52.6. 52.6 / 2.1 = over 25.

So for every dollar in debt growth in this giant part of the US economy (which actually elects the government and pays a huge proportion of the taxes, BTW) grew their collective assets over TWENTY FIVE times more than their collective debt in the period you're wailing about.

So do we all go hide under our beds?

...

The key issue is whether the debt can be paid (as rockdoc and others have pointed out repeatedly, but you're too dense or focused on doom to admit). Since the doomers want to slant things and distort things to try and portray instadoom constantly -- they steadfastly refuse to take an honest look at overall numbers and overall growth in factors like assets AND debt in the economy. Since, to do so would NOT portray instadoom, and after all, we CAN'T have that in doomerville. :roll:

You and your ilk wailing debt debt debt without ANY meaningful context endlessly might be good sport, but it's also a key example of why your constantly wrong for many years to decades on end, so there's that. :idea:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 7585
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 01 Jan 2020, 13:16:56

Armageddon wrote:In the last decade the US added nearly $11 trillion in debt while growing GDP by only $7 trillion.
In other words: Every $1 in growth came with over $1.5 in additional debt.

I wanted to discuss corporate debt in a separate post, vs. the prior one.

I'll let experts do the talking, who have done the hard work of gathering the data I want. (And the Fed seems to chop US up corporate debt and assets into various categories, or I'm missing something).

Bottom line, IN CONTEXT with US corporate profit growth, US corporate debt doesn't look like a problem. We need to keep an eye on it, especially if interest rates rise a lot, but instadoom, it is NOT.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/is ... or-concern

The amount of corporate debt has been growing since the recovery from the Great Recession, but this aggregate growth in the amount of debt appears mostly consistent with the robust growth in corporate profits.

Debt as a share of the total firm financing mix is much lower today than it was during the 1980s and early 1990s. The mix of debt tilts in the direction of loans versus publicly-traded bonds, and because well-crafted covenants are an important tool for protecting against loss, it is important to continue to pay attention to changes in covenant quality over time.

Finally, rising interest rates could quickly erode the profitability of firms that have borrowed at floating rates or using short-term debt.

(Red text mine, for emphasis). We already know what happened re decades of insta-doom predictions from the 80's and 90's, now don't we? :roll:

...

So if things look fine outside corporations overall (despite doomer claims) and things look OK re corporations, so much for the idea of insta-doom because of the cry of "debt debt debt" (out of context).

Not that I'd expect the constant braying from the usual suspects to change, of course. :lol:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 7585
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 01 Jan 2020, 15:00:19

Nice regurgitation of some unfounded, and mostly ridiculous opinions that you hold. Your excessive compulsive mania is getting the better of you. You are acting, as they say; a little daffed!
Image


The proverbial debt bomb may go off in China. If China's imports from it principle suppliers, Taiwan, and South Korea are any indication, China is not growing. On its present growth trajectory the debt bomb will go off somewhere. That does not have to be the US. We ignore what is going on in China at our own risk.


China Cuts Reserve Ratio By 50bps Ahead Of January's $400 Billion "Liquidity Hole

Addressing just this, the PBOC said the planned reduction will save about 15 billion yuan in funding costs for banks in a year, indicating that the benchmark loan prime rate will likely be lowered as banks reduce their submissions for the rate’s calculation in late January, which in turn will force the PBOC to cut the RRR further, resulting in an even lower loan prime rates and so forth, which brings to mind a recent striking op-ed published in the Global Times, which predicted that China would be the next major country to cut rates to zero.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/china ... idity-hole

Image
User avatar
shortonoil
False ETP Prophet
False ETP Prophet
 
Posts: 6530
Joined: Thu 02 Dec 2004, 03:00:00
Location: VA USA

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 01 Jan 2020, 16:14:09

The cornies are an angry group on here. The closer we are getting to the crash, the angrier they are getting. I think down deep they are realizing what’s coming.
User avatar
Armageddon
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5555
Joined: Wed 13 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: St.Louis, Mo

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Cog » Thu 02 Jan 2020, 05:50:20

Why would we be angry? If we had followed your doom advice we wouldn't have been invested in one of the longest bull markets in history. It is simply fun to poke at the fast crash doomers, since their ludicrous predictions have been so flawed.
User avatar
Cog
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 13046
Joined: Sat 17 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Northern Kekistan

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 02 Jan 2020, 08:23:28

At 668 tonnes, net purchases of gold by Central Banks in 2019 touched the highest level since the 1970s.


They know what’s coming
User avatar
Armageddon
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5555
Joined: Wed 13 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: St.Louis, Mo

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 02 Jan 2020, 09:26:59

At 668 tonnes, net purchases of gold by Central Banks in 2019 touched the highest level since the 1970s.


They know what’s coming


They sure do, and a crystal ball is not needed to see why. The market has leveraged central bank liquidity injects to absurd levels. $720 billion in FED injections drove the market up $33 trillion; a 48:1 leverage. We saw it again today with the Chinese injecting a mere $115 billion, and the entire market exploded up. Meanwhile, as the market is on a nose bleed upward rise, volume is collapsing. Crunch time is coming soon. There will be a gigantic pile of over valued stocks, and no one is going to want them. We will have entered a "bid-less" market, and the day of reckoning will have arrived.

Of course the central banks want gold. They know what their pseudo currencies will soon be really worth; just about nothing.
User avatar
shortonoil
False ETP Prophet
False ETP Prophet
 
Posts: 6530
Joined: Thu 02 Dec 2004, 03:00:00
Location: VA USA

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 02 Jan 2020, 17:50:16

Armageddon wrote:The cornies are an angry group on here. The closer we are getting to the crash, the angrier they are getting. I think down deep they are realizing what’s coming.

I think it's clear that as time goes on, you are getting more divorced from reality, so there's that.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 7585
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 02 Jan 2020, 17:54:03

shortonoil wrote:Nice regurgitation of some unfounded, and mostly ridiculous opinions that you hold. Your excessive compulsive mania is getting the better of you. You are acting, as they say; a little daffed!
Image

Congrats on all the brilliant analysis and factual refutation of all data I present. :roll:

Par for the course for you -- childish name calling and making stuff up, ad nauseam, is all you have.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 7585
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 02 Jan 2020, 19:26:12

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Armageddon wrote:The cornies are an angry group on here. The closer we are getting to the crash, the angrier they are getting. I think down deep they are realizing what’s coming.

I think it's clear that as time goes on, you are getting more divorced from reality, so there's that.



Rate cuts, QE, GDP declining. It seems I’m pretty spot on
User avatar
Armageddon
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5555
Joined: Wed 13 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: St.Louis, Mo

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 02 Jan 2020, 22:59:00

Armageddon wrote:The cornies are an angry group on here. The closer we are getting to the crash, the angrier they are getting. I think down deep they are realizing what’s coming.


The frustration comes from you barging into a stock market crash thread and saying the end is nigh day in and day out for many months while the stock market has largely soared. All of your repetitive talking points (QE, ZIRP, NIRP) have been off-topic since day-one.

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
asg70
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3171
Joined: Sun 05 Feb 2017, 13:17:28

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 02 Jan 2020, 23:06:16

asg70 wrote:
Armageddon wrote:The cornies are an angry group on here. The closer we are getting to the crash, the angrier they are getting. I think down deep they are realizing what’s coming.


The frustration comes from you barging into a stock market crash thread and saying the end is nigh day in and day out for many months while the stock market has largely soared. All of your repetitive talking points (QE, ZIRP, NIRP) have been off-topic since day-one.



Zirp,nirp, QE and rate cuts are rocket fuel for the stock market....for now
User avatar
Armageddon
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5555
Joined: Wed 13 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: St.Louis, Mo

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby marmico » Thu 02 Jan 2020, 23:27:18

Image
marmico
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1089
Joined: Mon 28 Jul 2014, 13:46:35

PreviousNext

Return to Economics & Finance

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 15 guests