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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 28 Dec 2019, 13:15:12

Armageddon wrote:
Cog wrote:Armageddon has been predicting a stock market crash for years. How has that worked out?


I’m more about the economy than the stock market.


So...you are saying you can't be bothered (or don't know how) to make a financial/economy thread and retype the same things you were saying 15 years ago, in there?

Or that you don't know the difference between stock market crashes and general economic trends and conditions?

How DID you get to be the richest poster in here? The lottery?
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 28 Dec 2019, 14:49:54

How DID you get to be the richest poster in here? The lottery?


ARM

You are heavily invested in PMs; from your posts. I inherited, at birth, mineral rights. In a few years, after ground zero day, let's see who is eating Prime Beef, and who is eating Cat Food. PMs, and minerals both have 7,000 year old track records.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 28 Dec 2019, 15:40:26

shortonoil wrote:
How DID you get to be the richest poster in here? The lottery?


ARM

You are heavily invested in PMs; from your posts. I inherited, at birth, mineral rights. In a few years, after ground zero day, let's see who is eating Prime Beef, and who is eating Cat Food. PMs, and minerals both have 7,000 year old track records.




Hell, if things really crash hard enough, who knows if PM’s will be worth anything. Food and water might be the only 2 things worth anything. But, I’d rather have PM’s than not have them. I also own a 150 farm with a 9 acre stocked lake. 90 min drive from my house unfortunately
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 28 Dec 2019, 18:15:09

Auto Lenders Have Verified Income On Just 7% Of All Loans Since 2017


Can you say desperation?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 28 Dec 2019, 18:56:19

shortonoil wrote:
How DID you get to be the richest poster in here? The lottery?


ARM

You are heavily invested in PMs; from your posts.


PM's haven't done squat compared to equities. He might as well have bragged about poor investing results compared to everyone else if that was his secret.

shortonoil wrote: I inherited, at birth, mineral rights.


Who cares welsher. It isn't a surprise that an inheritance is the only way you could get rich because you sure can't do it based on logical and structured thought, your investment strategy claims down through the years or the ability to do or publish science. Maybe you could come up with an instruction manual for how to not look silly on the internet? At least you've got extensive experience with that one.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 28 Dec 2019, 21:33:36

Central bank gold buying reached a new high in 2019.

Reasons to buy gold:

Rising demand, limited supply.
Inflation hedge.
Also hedge against accelerating financial repression.


But the financial geniuses in here say that gold is a bad investment.


BTW, I dont need any more money, im just protecting what I have
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 28 Dec 2019, 23:31:25

Armageddon wrote:Central bank gold buying reached a new high in 2019.

Reasons to buy gold:

Rising demand, limited supply.
Inflation hedge.
Also hedge against accelerating financial repression.


And how did you become the richest person on this forum buying and holding gold which haven't appreciated near as much as equities over the past decades? recession?

Or are you channeling Alex Jones here again?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Yoshua » Sun 29 Dec 2019, 02:58:08

Venezuela's GDP has contracted by 75% in the last decade from $400B to $100B.

Oil production has declined from 3.5mmbpd to 1mmbpd.

In 1Q2019 the GDP contracted by another 25% YoY.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/ ... cators.png
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 29 Dec 2019, 10:03:21

Oil production has declined from 3.5mmbpd to 1mmbpd.


Which goes to prove that socialists can't pump oil; or something to that effect? Now, Iran is a different case. In that situation anyone who can build a missile that can target Israel can't pump oil. Then of course, at $25 a barrel no one can pump oil; at least for very long.

Apparently, there is more to pumping oil than we are generally led to believe? Figuring out who can pump oil, and who can't is getting a lot more complicated. We obviously need a Congressional committee to figure it all out. If things don't look good they can just impeach hydrocarbons.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 29 Dec 2019, 10:21:10

Worst Market In 30 Years" - 400,000 Commodity Railcars Sit Idle Amid Industrial Recession
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/w ... -recession
Wells Fargo, Citigroup, PNC Financial Service Group, and CIT Group accumulated hundreds of thousands of commodity hauling railcars in North America over the last decade.
.

Depressions will no longer be televised.

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby asg70 » Sun 29 Dec 2019, 10:32:53

Yoshua wrote:Venezuela's GDP has contracted by 75% in the last decade from $400B to $100B.


So now we've circled back yet again to trying to suggest Venezuela is a canary in the coalmine? Do we have to keep listing out the reasons why Venezuela crashed and burned, all of it unrelated to peak oil?

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 29 Dec 2019, 13:14:25

So now we've circled back yet again to trying to suggest Venezuela is a canary in the coalmine? Do we have to keep listing out the reasons why Venezuela crashed and burned, all of it unrelated to peak oil?


Even though Venezuela is looking more like a rat caught in a bear trap than a Tweety Bird in the mine, it has a awful lot to do with Peak. They hold the largest resource of liquid hydrocarbons on the planet, and they "were" one of the world's major producers. For a lobotomized discontent that may not be relevant; then again being able to find your ass with both hands, and a full length mirror may not be either?

Oil production has declined from 3.5mmbpd to 1mmbpd.


Venezuela is, and always has been, one of the most screwed up societies on earth. Unfortunately, for a while, I had the opportunity to work there! They were a sitting duck at the cut off point when the price of oil could no longer be maintained at a high enough level to make continued production possible through a free market mechanism. Someone had to go to support the price, and they left themselves as number one candidate for the oil thugs to bring down. Petroleum can no longer deliver enough energy to the consumer to pay for its extraction, and processing. Its quality has fallen to a level were the world can no longer afford all that it can produce. It is now a social cost as opposed to a benefit, but it is still the most valuable commodity used by this oil driven modern economy. For every thing to continue working it must be produced, regardless of the price. The price in human misery will be horrific. The curse of oil has just begun. The millions that have already died to secure the oil will just be the beginning.

Iran was number two to be taken out as a sacrifice to the oil deities. Since depletion rides a one way vehicle, with no reverse, number three will be coming along any day. The only way now to keep producing oil is by destroying our ability to produce it. Like everything else past the energy half way point, how we will continue to produce oil will be running backwards. Economies will be going down, and the debt will be going up. Because everything that has to do with oil follows a skewed logistic curve, the back of the curve will be a lot steeper, and shorter than was the front. Oil has been King, but like all kings its rein ends with its demise!

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 29 Dec 2019, 13:30:40

Yoshua wrote:Venezuela's GDP has contracted by 75% in the last decade from $400B to $100B.

Oil production has declined from 3.5mmbpd to 1mmbpd.

In 1Q2019 the GDP contracted by another 25% YoY.


Chavez says it is 21st Century Socialism

What is your point, socialists can't produce oil and gas?
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 29 Dec 2019, 13:32:58

shortonoil wrote:Apparently, there is more to pumping oil than we are generally led to believe?


Indeed. You wrote like a huge paper proving you don't know anything about it, is it a surprise that your ignorance is the norm in the populace at large when it comes to oil and gas production operations?
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 29 Dec 2019, 16:13:10

Indeed. You wrote like a huge paper proving you don't know anything about it,


And: you haven't written any papers! Surprise. Keep working on that postage stamp, you'll get it filled-in eventually?

With all of your knowledge on the subject itemized, you can bring a new dimension to the discussion; (brain constipation)!

So now we've circled back yet again to trying to suggest Venezuela is a canary in the coalmine? Do we have to keep listing out the reasons why Venezuela crashed and burned, all of it unrelated to peak oil?

Even though Venezuela is looking more like a rat caught in a bear trap than a Tweety Bird in the mine, it has an awful lot to do with Peak.......
cont:


see above:
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 29 Dec 2019, 16:53:18

shortonoil wrote:
Indeed. You wrote like a huge paper proving you don't know anything about it,


And: you haven't written any papers!


More than you have fingers and toes.

I have a suggestion for greenhorns like you though. Try learning something about the subject matter before putting pen to paper. Just a suggestion, we all start somewhere, and I've had my own issues with fits and starts in my early publishing days.

You should understand that faith based belief ideas don't tend to do well in any science based peer review process, as you now appear to have discovered. Just a hint, so next time you won't get kicked off the porch before you can even make it in the door to close the sale...let alone have it be so embarrassing that all evidence of it needs removed from the internet for fear of the damage it will do to your reputation.

Stick to what you know next time, you'll probably do better the next go-round.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 29 Dec 2019, 18:27:46

Jim Rickards Warns That Tsunami Of Debt Could Upend The Economy

At some point, an economic problem deepens so much that the piper has to be paid. Both in the U.S. and globally, one of those problems appears to be mountains of debt.[/b]


Jim Rickards is essentially correct, but his graph is off by $45 trillion; which has nothing to do with the validity of his argument. 50bps would probably do it.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 30 Dec 2019, 08:09:49

Chinese President Xi Installs Finance Experts To Avoid "Lurking, Devastating Debt Bombs
And while central banks around the world are cutting interest rates and pumping liquidity into markets on the premise of a return to global growth in 2020, China is currently preparing for a slowing economy and financial armageddon.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/chine ... omic-risks

It looks like this little bugger is getting real.

China - 1
FED - 0

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a little instruction needs to include depletion:

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 30 Dec 2019, 08:37:34

As real economic dynamics ie. excessive debt, low EROEI etc intrude on the fabricated dynamic of the central bank manipulated market, the only question remaining is not the if the Crash will happen 'its baked in" but when. https://m.investing.com/analysis/a-mark ... -200495036
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 30 Dec 2019, 10:44:41

As real economic dynamics ie. excessive debt, low EROEI etc intrude on the fabricated dynamic of the central bank manipulated market, the only question remaining is not the if the Crash will happen 'its baked in" but when. https://m.investing.com/analysis/a-mark ... -200495036


Some fairly simple calculations tell us when it has to happen "by"; but they don't tell us if it will happen "before". Like a ball game at 40 to 0 in the top of the ninth we are now just running down the clock. In the interlude we get entertained by a Washington, DC rerun of the Young and the Restless starring a cast of Carrot Top, and the wicked witch of the East, Fossil Face Pelosi. Enjoy the show, its free unless one happens to be a tax payer.
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