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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Yoshua » Fri 27 Dec 2019, 04:25:21

In the last decade:

S&P 500 is up 289.1 %
S&P Energy is up 0.3 %
Crude Light is down 23.0 %

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EMxsi1RWoAY ... me=900x900
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Cog » Fri 27 Dec 2019, 06:06:36

Armageddon wrote:
Cog wrote:So Armageddon is predicting both record highs and a crash. Such useful investing information. LOL How could a person go wrong with such useful insights?



Look who agrees with me

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-ma ... MgUI3eiRbz


I can find an analyst who believes in everything I believe in. It means exactly nothing in predicting market direction or individual stock moves.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 27 Dec 2019, 08:46:02

Yousha said:
In the last decade:

S&P 500 is up 289.1 %
S&P Energy is up 0.3 %
Crude Light is down 23.0 %

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EMxsi1RWoAY ... me=900x900 Yos


World debt is up 303%.

It looks like the only business remaining that is worth doing is printing money! Young people today need to save up their money, and buy a printing press! The biggest crime in history was committed when this generation left the next one with absolutely no future. This generation has a place in the history books; the most self centered, self serving critters to have ever roamed the planet.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 27 Dec 2019, 09:05:05

Fed’s balance sheet “continues its epic rise” — up by an avg $101.5b per month since September, compared to $80b per month during QE3. “It’s hard not to imagine this influence on stock prices,” says @pboockvar
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 27 Dec 2019, 09:59:55

Yoshua wrote:In the last decade:

S&P 500 is up 289.1 %
S&P Energy is up 0.3 %
Crude Light is down 23.0 %

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EMxsi1RWoAY ... me=900x900


So now you want to prove that the title to this thread is ridiculous as well? Perhaps this information would be better posted in the "Stock Market Made Army Rich While He Claims Collapse" thread?
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 27 Dec 2019, 10:02:58

shortonoil wrote:World debt is up 303%.


And you are $250 of that at least, in what you owe on the bet you welshed on.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby marmico » Fri 27 Dec 2019, 10:57:39

World debt is up 303%.


More BS from Bankrupt Bozo Bedford. World debt is up ~50% in the last decade.

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 27 Dec 2019, 12:24:33

More BS from Bankrupt Bozo Bedford. World debt is up ~50% in the last decade.


Beware: retard attack! More crap from the idiot that can't tell the difference between a line graph and a bar chart. Plus, it is for the last decade. Your bar chart doesn't have 2010 nor does it go to 2020. Are you still trying to figure out what year this is? How impressive.

Image

Yousha said:
In the last decade:

S&P 500 is up 289.1 %
S&P Energy is up 0.3 %
Crude Light is down 23.0 %

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EMxsi1RWoAY ... me=900x900 Yos


We still are not seeing any major changes in US oil output. LTO exports are still growing; which indicates a world shortage of diluent, or Shale is cutting the price heavily. Overall, US exports of finished product, and imports of crude are pretty steady. The real canary in the mine will be when one of the two above begin to fall. Oil production, and consumption are pretty heavily subsidized by almost everyone, so the monetary system is likely to crack before oil goes into its last final steep, and terminal decline. Looking at the catastrophic rate of debt formation we probably don't have long to wait. If the GDP figures are even mildly accurate, that will be within a year or so at most. Of course, that black swan never stops flying, and we are way out on the proverbial limb.

http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_dcus_nus_w.htm
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 27 Dec 2019, 13:42:46

shortonoil wrote: More crap from the idiot that can't tell the difference between a line graph and a bar chart.


As opposed to more crap from the welsher who can't tell the difference between thermodynamics and price?
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 27 Dec 2019, 14:10:48

LTO exports are still growing; which indicates a world shortage of diluent, or Shale is cutting the price heavily. 


For the 15th million time….it isn’t diluent. Diluent refers to what you put into pipelines to reduce the viscosity of other oils. In fact the LTO profile, in general, is almost exactly the same as Brent. This means it is immediately useful in almost every refinery in Europe when exported. The light oil from North Africa that supplies refineries in southern Europe could easily be displaced by LTO. When Libya went offline there was quite a panic to find light oil to replace its. So basically you still have your head firmly inserted with regards to what is being produced and now exported in the US. Why not listen to someone who understands the facts and issues rather than just making crap up?

Oil production, and consumption are pretty heavily subsidized by almost everyone,


OH, really? Care to give us the details on that? There are no subsidies for the production of oil in North America. Trying to suggest that allowing companies to write off exploration expenditures is somehow a subsidy is just stupid given every company producing any product is allowed to write down their expenses against taxes. There is no special deal. And outside of a few countries in the Middle East and North Africa consumption is not directly subsidized either. You see direct fuel subsidies (price is set artifically low) in places like Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, etc given there is considerable government oil/gas wealth and a population that doesn’t consume a lot of fuel to begin with. But there are no fuel subsidies in the main consuming nations. There is a lot of confusion with the use of the term "subsidy" in regards to oil and gas so you had better be specific about what it is you are referring to.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 27 Dec 2019, 14:23:50

marmico wrote:
shortonoil wrote:World debt is up 303%.


More BS from Bankrupt Bozo Bedford. World debt is up ~50% in the last decade.

Image


Why is it that the welsher can't offer credible citations to back up the vast majority of his claims?

I think his track record says a lot about that. :o

...

And yet, time after time, he expects to be taken seriously. Are you armageddon posting under a different name, perhaps?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 27 Dec 2019, 15:11:35

shortonoil wrote:World debt is up 303%.

Speaking of the real world vs. frantic doomer fake debt claims, we have this:

Per the St. Louis Fed:

However, the absolute value of global debt is not a very informative number. A better way of understanding its magnitude is measuring global debt as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP). Using this measure, world debt appears to have peaked at 245% of global output in September 2016 and to have fallen to 238% of global GDP in March 2019.2 The decline since 2016 suggests that post-crisis levels of global debt may finally be stabilizing. Since its peak, the average debt-to-GDP ratio for the 10 quarters ended in March 2019 was 238%. This is up from 207% during the 10 quarters preceding the financial crisis.

Global debt stabilization does not universally assume that all sectors of an economy or even all national economies are simultaneously stabilizing. But rather, individual sectors in the economies most responsible for driving the previous trend have begun to stabilize.

https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications ... stabilized

Red font mine, for emphasis.

As usual, this doesn't mean the global economy is a bowl of cherries, but it DOES point to the fact that, as I repeatedly have said, looked at in overall CONTEXT, instead of endlessly shrieking "debt debt debt" and using doomer sources, the state of the global economy doesn't look at all like inevitable insta-doom, despite the non-stop claims by the usual suspects.

And again, I'll go with what the Fed is saying over random uninformed arm wavers, until it is proven (not claimed via consipiracy theories), that I should do otherwise.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 27 Dec 2019, 16:06:45

Which Way Is Domestic Manufacturing Really Leaning?
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/whi ... ly-leaning

Image

Death of a thousand cuts!

How Today's Central Bankers Threaten Civilization
https://mises.org/wire/how-todays-centr ... vilization

The central banks have no other option. Petroleum depletion is forcing the creation of excess funds to prevent a market collapse. How long they can continue without creating distortions in the economic system that will bring about its ending, is the only question.

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 27 Dec 2019, 17:04:32

The first time you doomers appealed to authority through zerohedge it didn't move the needle. What makes you think the 1,000,000th time will?

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 27 Dec 2019, 19:47:02

shortonoil wrote: Petroleum depletion is forcing the creation of excess funds to prevent a market collapse.


You lost your bet over making similar ignorant assumptions before welsher. How about you pay up before spinning the same silly tales you were 15 years ago?
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Yoshua » Sat 28 Dec 2019, 02:09:12

World GDP is up 50 % the last decade.

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY ... start=2008

The world GDP is today $90T.
The world stock market cap is $90T...or 100% to world GDP.

Everything is priced to perfection.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Yoshua » Sat 28 Dec 2019, 04:37:10

"Inflation expectations and bond yields are telling you that we are all becoming acclimated to a world without growth. And that there is nothing a central bank can do about it." Alhambra

Here in Europe we have zero rates, close to zero yields and zero inflation and GDP growth at zero.

This is what Armageddon is predicting for the U.S in 2020.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Cog » Sat 28 Dec 2019, 08:28:53

Armageddon has been predicting a stock market crash for years. How has that worked out?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 28 Dec 2019, 10:25:16

Cog wrote:Armageddon has been predicting a stock market crash for years. How has that worked out?



I’m more about the economy than the stock market. Rate cuts and QE are what I’m predicting, and that’s steroids for the markets...... for now
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 28 Dec 2019, 11:42:42

Here in Europe we have zero rates, close to zero yields and zero inflation and GDP growth at zero.

This is what Armageddon is predicting for the U.S in 2020.


It is going to be a lot worse than Arm can even begin to image. If the US had not wantonly, and purposely destroyed the economies of Iran, and Venezuela (two innocuous little countries to take 5 mb/d off line) crude would now be 25$ a barrel. The world's petroleum producers would be shutting their doors in rapid succession, and world economies would be folding up like cardboard boxes left out in the rain. The premeditated, and intentional destruction employed to keep prices elevated will only have a short term impact. The ever advancing cost of petroleum production from its inevitable depletion will wipe out any effect before Trump gets a chance to demonstrate his off the wall hairdo, and 5 word vocabulary at his next coronation.

When the US, and its allies found it necessary to force production cuts to keep their own petroleum industries in business they rang the bell at the top for the end of the oil age. They well demonstrated that a working price for oil is no longer possible, except through unenforceable, and affective, only in the short term, intimidation. $300 trillion in unserviceable debt, central banks gone printing mad on steroids, and a 5 mb/d desperation, near gun point cut, is the perfect recipe for an in your face economy with a near dated shelf life.

The Blitzkrieg of economic destruction approaching will have economists drooling in their beards, Pelosi screaming at the top of her voice in the House, and MIC collaborators demanding that the US bomb Russia. With the collapse of the monetary system, and its associated economy the last bare threads of the social fabric that holds civilization together will be torn to shreds. California will secede to fall on its own into the Pacific, and North Dakota will be back to pumping cows in place of oil. The wolves are at the door, and modern civilization is teetering on the apex, and thanks to our next quarter foresight there is nothing but a great abyss below.
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