Armageddon wrote:Does the recession start at the beginning of the first negative quarter, or at the end of the 2nd negative quarter?
I believe the official start of a recession is the beginning of the first of at least 2 consecutive quarters.
Armageddon wrote:Does the recession start at the beginning of the first negative quarter, or at the end of the 2nd negative quarter?
AdamB wrote:Armageddon wrote:Does the recession start at the beginning of the first negative quarter, or at the end of the 2nd negative quarter?
I believe the official start of a recession is the beginning of the first of at least 2 consecutive quarters.
A recession is a macroeconomic term that refers to a significant decline in general economic activity in a designated region. It is typically recognized after two consecutive quarters of economic decline, as reflected by GDP in conjunction with monthly indicators like employment. Recessions are officially declared in the U.S. by a committee of experts at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), who determines the peak and subsequent trough of the business cycle which demonstrates the recession.
Yoshua wrote:asg70 wrote:Yoshua wrote:The evolution of human civilization has been driven by energy and technology ever since the day we humans learned how to master fire (energy) and make tools (technology).
Unless we find a new energy source our civilization has now peaked.
Scraping up what's left at the bottom of the oil barrel is not a solution... it's desperation.
Usually when backed against the wall, doomers fall back to generic limits to growth pronouncements like the above. They really aren't useful in making short-term predictions like the topic of this thread.
Technical stock market charts showed that something would happen before the end of this year. They didn't say what would happen.
Then the Repo blew up and the Fed had to start pumping in money into the Repo market and start not QE.
So what happens now? I don't know.
Armageddon wrote:The real tell-tale is freight shipping. The Cass index has been down 11 months in a row.
Armageddon wrote:Now four months in a row under 50 for ISM. Worst collective set of readings since the Great Recession
Armageddon wrote:Heading back to where the Great Session left off due to massive govt / FED intervention.
Armageddon wrote: But this time they are out of ammo.
Armageddon wrote:Well, not quite out of ammo. They own the printing presses. QE 4 will be bigger then QE 1,2 and 3 combined. These coming deficits will be something we’ve never seen before
Armageddon wrote:47% Of GDP – This Is Definitely The Scariest Corporate Debt Bubble In U.S. History
Armageddon wrote:We are facing a corporate debt bomb that is far, far greater than what we faced in 2008, and we are being warned that this “unexploded bomb” will “amplify everything” once the financial system starts melting down.
Armageddon wrote:Thanks to exceedingly low interest rates, over the last decade U.S. corporations have been able to go on the greatest corporate debt binge in history.
The real tell-tale is freight shipping. The Cass index has been down 11 months in a row.
Yoshua wrote:Things are really bad when only the Talibans can save us.
marmico wrote:The real tell-tale is freight shipping. The Cass index has been down 11 months in a row.
Cass is a worthless tell-tale. It was negative year on year for 18 months (March 2015 - September 2016) without a recession.
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