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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 02 Dec 2019, 19:16:38

Armageddon wrote:Does the recession start at the beginning of the first negative quarter, or at the end of the 2nd negative quarter?


I believe the official start of a recession is the beginning of the first of at least 2 consecutive quarters.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 02 Dec 2019, 19:47:17

The real tell-tale is freight shipping. The Cass index has been down 11 months in a row.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 02 Dec 2019, 20:23:48

AdamB wrote:
Armageddon wrote:Does the recession start at the beginning of the first negative quarter, or at the end of the 2nd negative quarter?


I believe the official start of a recession is the beginning of the first of at least 2 consecutive quarters.




https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/recession.asp

A recession is a macroeconomic term that refers to a significant decline in general economic activity in a designated region. It is typically recognized after two consecutive quarters of economic decline, as reflected by GDP in conjunction with monthly indicators like employment. Recessions are officially declared in the U.S. by a committee of experts at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), who determines the peak and subsequent trough of the business cycle which demonstrates the recession.


I think you're right Adam. Of course, that point can't be determined until AFTER there are two consecutive negative quarters to measure, and whatever lag time there is to gather the measurements.

Thus, like most of the stuff Armageddon constantly confidently brays, re macro-economics, saying the US is currently in recession is just a guess. Naturally, he will claim it is a "correct" guess, despite his terrible track record re economic predictions, because he thinks he is "schooling" people in economics. :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 02 Dec 2019, 20:29:46

With GDP flirting with 1%, a small decline or revision and we could actually be at the beginning of a recession. So to say we aren’t in a recession because we haven’t had 2 negative quarters is asinine.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 02 Dec 2019, 20:30:55

Yoshua wrote:
asg70 wrote:
Yoshua wrote:The evolution of human civilization has been driven by energy and technology ever since the day we humans learned how to master fire (energy) and make tools (technology).
Unless we find a new energy source our civilization has now peaked.
Scraping up what's left at the bottom of the oil barrel is not a solution... it's desperation.


Usually when backed against the wall, doomers fall back to generic limits to growth pronouncements like the above. They really aren't useful in making short-term predictions like the topic of this thread.


Technical stock market charts showed that something would happen before the end of this year. They didn't say what would happen.

Then the Repo blew up and the Fed had to start pumping in money into the Repo market and start not QE.

So what happens now? I don't know.

So a three day surge, of which only one day was bad, is now "blowing up"? Typical doomer tripe.

How about not constantly blatantly overstating things, if you want to be taken seriously?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 02 Dec 2019, 20:53:59

Armageddon wrote:The real tell-tale is freight shipping. The Cass index has been down 11 months in a row.


Your tell-tale maybe. Remember when the McPeaksters were soiling themselves over the BDI index?

Is this an index you have learned precedes recessions and whatnot, or did Alex Jones clue you in to it?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 02 Dec 2019, 23:34:52

Now four months in a row under 50 for ISM. Worst collective set of readings since the Great Recession

Heading back to where the Great Session left off due to massive govt / FED intervention. But this time they are out of ammo. Well, not quite out of ammo. They own the printing presses. QE 4 will be bigger then QE 1,2 and 3 combined. These coming deficits will be something we’ve never seen before
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 02 Dec 2019, 23:50:35

47% Of GDP – This Is Definitely The Scariest Corporate Debt Bubble In U.S. History

We are facing a corporate debt bomb that is far, far greater than what we faced in 2008, and we are being warned that this “unexploded bomb” will “amplify everything” once the financial system starts melting down.

Thanks to exceedingly low interest rates, over the last decade U.S. corporations have been able to go on the greatest corporate debt binge in history.



https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-fina ... us-history
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 03 Dec 2019, 00:03:03

Armageddon wrote:Now four months in a row under 50 for ISM. Worst collective set of readings since the Great Recession


And in the past this has been positively correlated with upcoming recessions?

Armageddon wrote:Heading back to where the Great Session left off due to massive govt / FED intervention.


Not "left off", but "doom stopped in its tracks". This is where it becomes interesting, as you use increased debt as an argument for doom, an instead it stopped your last claim of doom. And now you are using the same way as you did last time, when it now appears evident it isn't quite as clear an indicator as you've hoped.

Armageddon wrote: But this time they are out of ammo.


According to you pre-recession, debt wasn't ammo, but our doom. So now you are back to debt as a solution. Which is it, and why do you use it inter-changably as both cause of doom, and cure?

Armageddon wrote:Well, not quite out of ammo. They own the printing presses. QE 4 will be bigger then QE 1,2 and 3 combined. These coming deficits will be something we’ve never seen before


Of course they own printing presses. They always have. And it turns out they using them can be advantageous. Yet you portray exactly this power as something both cause and cure.

Strikes me that devaluing our currency through increased debt is a tool, and a powerful one for the US to use.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 03 Dec 2019, 00:08:00

Armageddon wrote:47% Of GDP – This Is Definitely The Scariest Corporate Debt Bubble In U.S. History


Scary for you perhaps. I once found it quite profitable to purchase bankrupt oil and gas operators from the court and apply lean and mean practices to them. Creative destruction as it were.

You appear to be quite scared of all sorts of things. Why?

Armageddon wrote:We are facing a corporate debt bomb that is far, far greater than what we faced in 2008, and we are being warned that this “unexploded bomb” will “amplify everything” once the financial system starts melting down.


By Alex Jones? Or the same people that convinced you LAST time that debt was bad? Back before you learned it was a cure for some problems instead?

Armageddon wrote:Thanks to exceedingly low interest rates, over the last decade U.S. corporations have been able to go on the greatest corporate debt binge in history.


Sure. You have a problem with borrowing at low rates rather than high ones? You are somehow surprised that folks borrow more at lower rates?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Yoshua » Tue 03 Dec 2019, 02:52:13

U.S ISM MANUFACTURING PMI (NOV) ACTUAL: 48.1 VS 48.3 PREVIOUS; EST 49.2

U.S ISM MANUFACTURING NEW ORDERS INDEX (NOV) ACTUAL: 47.2 VS 49.1 PREVIOUS

U.S ISM MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT (NOV) ACTUAL: 46.6 VS 47.7 PREVIOUS

This happens despite the Fed's stimulus of $60B a month...which equals 3.0% GDP a month...

Either the stimulus isn't working...or the print would be even worse without stimulus...or the money just goes into pumping up the stock market bubble...
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Yoshua » Tue 03 Dec 2019, 04:38:27

S&P 500 Futures

If technical charts mean anything...then the top is in...and now comes the crash.

https://i0.wp.com/northmantrader.com/wp ... C729&ssl=1
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby marmico » Tue 03 Dec 2019, 05:07:45

The real tell-tale is freight shipping. The Cass index has been down 11 months in a row.


Cass is a worthless tell-tale. It was negative year on year for 18 months (March 2015 - September 2016) without a recession.

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby marmico » Tue 03 Dec 2019, 05:28:39

Manufacturing output via FRED through October 2019. Weak but only a crash for doomers.

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Yoshua » Tue 03 Dec 2019, 05:29:51

Trump’s trade deal with China is dead. China has already signed an agricultural deal with Brazil and Argentina.

Trump just imposed tariffs on steel and aluminium from Brazil and Argentina…claiming that the devaluation of their currencies are hurting U.S producers…and of course to punish them for hurting U.S farmers.

Trump has restricted sales to Huawei on national security issues. Huawei’s latest smartphone doesn’t have any U.S components. China now either produce or source components from other nations.

Trump is now looking at targeting E.U with tarrifs and House and Senate will soon impose sanctions on E.U over Nord Stream 2.

The U.S is still the largest military power in the world and owns the world reserve currency. So what's next?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 03 Dec 2019, 08:40:02

A year and a half of trade talks:

Trade deal coming soon
China wants a deal
Trade deal going well
Trade deal ready to sign
China wants a deal
Ok, we'll do phase 1 instead
We agreed to phase 1
Phase 1 coming soon
China wants a deal
Phase 1 going well
Let's wait until after the US election.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Yoshua » Tue 03 Dec 2019, 10:01:20

The Talibans want to make a deal. But it's got to be the right deal.

What? Who?

The Talibans.

Are you dreaming?

................

Things are really bad when only the Talibans can save us.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 03 Dec 2019, 10:46:44

Yoshua wrote:Things are really bad when only the Talibans can save us.


What do the "Talibans" have to do with the stock market?

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 03 Dec 2019, 11:18:33

It looks like the market may be starting to crack. Most major indexes down almost 2%. With $160 billion a month being pumped into it by the FED this was not supposed to happen. With corporate earning flat since 2014, and revenue gains almost nothing a 70% increase in the S&P spells trouble. The gains have been 100% attributable to stock buy backs. Any glitch there will send the market to the basement in the fast lane.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/f ... electronic
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 03 Dec 2019, 11:34:21

marmico wrote:
The real tell-tale is freight shipping. The Cass index has been down 11 months in a row.


Cass is a worthless tell-tale. It was negative year on year for 18 months (March 2015 - September 2016) without a recession.

Image


Thank you for answering the question I asked Armageddon.

But the real question is, did he know it was worthless before he used it, or did he know and use it anyway because his specialty is just grabbing any metric that says "worst ever in the last 6 months!" and posting it pretending it supports a stock market crash anyway?
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