[AdamB]

The evolution of human civilization has been driven by energy and technology ever since the day we humans learned how to master fire (energy) and make tools (technology).

No one has claimed we aren't clever monkeys.

Unless we find a new energy source our civilization has now peaked.

Sure...fire...stone age...bronze...iron...steel...industrialization....the only known solution for a doomer to the end of one age is the end of man. Except when it isn't. Lack of imagination on the part of doomers isn't the issue.

Scraping up what's left at the bottom of the oil barrel is not a solution... it's desperation.

Exactly what could have been said in early 1901...as we were busily scraping the bottom of the oil barrel...until we came up with another new technology, and suddenly it turns out that the "less easy" oil worked fine as well. We've done that routine 3 or 5 times now. What part of your vast understanding of the development of oil and natural gas tells you that the next 2 aren't already visible? We know for a fact that people right here on this website knew about the US resource plays before they created Saudi America, what part of your experience in resource development says that the next 2 visible ones aren't waiting for the right economics to do the same thing we did just since this website was invented?

[AdamB]

You can't answer a single question as to why your near 15 year run at claiming the end is nigh hasn't been followed by the end, can you?

Apparently he doesn't live in Venezuela, Iran, Baltimore, or work for an auto manufacture!

Army wasn't proclaiming 15 years ago that Venezuela, Iran or Baltimore were going to collapse by 2006, but the US. And he didn't say anything back then about globalization being the culprit. I would also venture that neither were you.

who wants to also bet that a 100 dollar oil tanks the stock market? and PO and tight supply is the darling news story 24/7. No more pervert of the month.

I'll bet that $80 oil tanks the entire worlds' monetary/financial system.

Only $80/bbl to tank the system. Wow. Did Mike "let me dance free in my underwear in front of the employees because they like it" Ruppert inform your wisdom on that one? Or Lyndon LaRouche?

2020 looks to be the big down turn in employment. The social fabric is going to get stretched to the breaking point this coming year. The mass riots are just getting started.

According to you, there shouldn't even be a monetary/financial system to riot over.

But the real question is, did you welsh on this bet as well as the ones you made in this forum?

I’ve presently got a running $100 bet with several friends and other people that 90% of the world’s major air carriers will be out of business within four years. Of course, I’ve got a piece of information that I have so far failed to share.

[Yoshua]

Fair enough Adam, I don't have any experience in extraction...or technology...or science...or thermodynamics...

The faith of human civilization is now in the hands of you technology minded...no pressure though...

The end of the bronze and iron ages ended in dark ages...but here we are...wondering how to solve this equation.

[Yoshua]

The evolution of human civilization has been driven by energy and technology ever since the day we humans learned how to master fire (energy) and make tools (technology).
Unless we find a new energy source our civilization has now peaked.
Scraping up what's left at the bottom of the oil barrel is not a solution... it's desperation.

Usually when backed against the wall, doomers fall back to generic limits to growth pronouncements like the above. They really aren't useful in making short-term predictions like the topic of this thread.

Technical stock market charts showed that something would happen before the end of this year. They didn't say what would happen.

Then the Repo blew up and the Fed had to start pumping in money into the Repo market and start not QE.

So what happens now? I don't know.

[shortonoil]

by shortonoil » Wed 06 Jul 2005, 20:41:57 wrote:

2005; 15 years ago!! Getting bored, or desperate out there is la la land?

Responses from an excessive compulsive head case, who likes to dig in the outhouse pit for the "smoking turd", are probably not admissible in court.


Federal Reserve Proposes New Rule To Let Inflation Run "Hot" Ahead Of Next Recession
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/feder ... -recession

As the Federal Reserve remains unable to stoke inflation (because it refuses to measure it correctly) and refuses to factor in asset price inflation...

World debt accumulation for 2019 was $43 trillion. That was $43 trillion of currency in circulation that was destroyed, and the FED still can't figure out why there is no inflation at the consumer level? Even with $zillion credit formation, of which Wall Street gets first dibs, Joe Six winds up $2 in the hole. Maybe our fearless leaders are having one of those senior moments? Most of them are about the same age as the Sphinx. Getting your Depends, and a balance sheet adjusted correctly at the same time is a little tricky.

Teaching an old dog new tricks has always been a challenge. Teaching this one that the world's economy is dying of energy starvation would require a marathon. Since this old hound has gotten to the point that you wouldn't even dare move its food bowl, all that we can expect to hear from the Eccles Building is: "Print Egor, Print"!

[AdamB]

The faith of human civilization is now in the hands of you technology minded...no pressure though...

Just as it has always been. The Industrial Revolution sure didn't happen because the Luddites sitting in the corner proclaiming "that there contraption sure ain't even going to replace the way I hand craft a buggy whip!!!" were moving the ball forward.

The end of the bronze and iron ages ended in dark ages...but here we are...wondering how to solve this equation.

Aren't we all? The good news being, the peak oil component of what happens next seems to have been removed, with our new understanding of things like the dynamic resource concept.

[AdamB]

by shortonoil » Wed 06 Jul 2005, 20:41:57 wrote:

2005; 15 years ago!! Getting bored, or desperate out there is la la land?

It was a simple question Short. That you undoubtedly want to avoid answering, considering it reveals A) you really didn't know anything back then either, and B) might be a serial welsher.

I’ve presently got a running $100 bet with several friends and other people that 90% of the world’s major air carriers will be out of business within four years. Of course, I’ve got a piece of information that I have so far failed to share.

On a related topic, when was the book finished? It's been like 15 years you've had to get it published, what was the title and who published it?

[Yoshua]

This time the equation has some dark components attached to it. We can't fail this time since we have nuclear reactors that must be attended to. We can't enter a dark ages and avoid radioactive poisoning.

Not sure if nuke nations are ready to enter the dark quietly either...

[asg70]

Doomers never have a long-term memory. They have a pattern of behavior. The end is always nigh. It was nigh 15 years ago and it's nigh now. That the level of panic back then was unwarranted never occurs to them. Getting a realistic handle on the doom-o-meter isn't the objective. Maintaining a constant level of panic is an end to itself.

[Yoshua]

Doomers never have a long-term memory. They have a pattern of behavior. The end is always nigh. It was nigh 15 years ago and it's nigh now. That the level of panic back then was unwarranted never occurs to them. Getting a realistic handle on the doom-o-meter isn't the objective. Maintaining a constant level of panic is an end to itself.

Well...of course... that's what we doomers live for.

[Yoshua]

A hydrogen atom sometimes takes another electron into its orbit and turns into a negative ion.

The universe always seeks balance and will reject one of the electrons.

Which one?
When?
In what direction?

Well...we don't know. According to quantum mechanics it happens by chance.

Einstein thought that this theory was reducilous. He hadn't observed anything thing in the universe happening by chance. According to him everything is run by a perfect mechanism.

So...my question is: when does a specific hydrogen atom in the universe take another electron into its orbit?

[shortonoil]

Well...of course... that's what we doomers live for.

The "doomers" (what ever they are) are probably also responsible for all the dog kicking, kitten drowning, and gopher poisoning taking place. In a world of virtual fantasy realists need not apply! They should have to write on the blackboard a thousand times, "I will not believe my own eyes, ears, or brain". These blasted independent thinkers could cost Google $billions. If they aren't stopped they might even start taking care of themselves? If they don't start getting their priories straight Amazon should drone them with massive piles of cheap Chinese junk, and charge it to their already maxed out credit cards.

15 years: world debt has increased by $299 trillion. The next 10 generations can fix that; as soon as the fish come back, and the 10,000 tons of poisonous nuclear radio nucleotides wash out of the Pacific. Nothing to see here; move along and be good little sheep, or it will be deducted from your social credits. It will be just in time for Christmas.

[AdamB]

15 years: world debt has increased by $299 trillion.

Indeed. And Armegeddon said it would end the world back when it was far less. And then he said that borrowing more saved the world. Now he has decided it is going to end the world. Again. Pretty silly, we all agree.

At what point during the last 15 years did you realize you were just parroting old ideas...and they weren't working out so well?

[Yoshua]

Now...can anyone of us imagine of an experiment that would make the quantum mechanics theory invalid? Well...Einstein did.

[Armageddon]

15 years: world debt has increased by $299 trillion.

Indeed. And Armegeddon said it would end the world back when it was far less. And then he said that borrowing more saved the world. Now he has decided it is going to end the world. Again. Pretty silly, we all agree.

At what point during the last 15 years did you realize you were just parroting old ideas...and they weren't working out so well?

I’ve heard experts say we were on the verge on a complete global collapse in 2008. The credit markets were nearly shut down. Without credit, everything stops. The FED had an emergency meeting to supply massive liquidity to stop it. What’s coming this time is going to dwarf 2008

[Armageddon]

U.S. manufacturing sector weakens further in November - ISM

November ISM headline miss 48.1 vs. 49.2 forecast (last 48.3); New Orders 47.2 vs. last 49.1; Employment 45.5 vs. 48.3 forecast; Backlogs (future demand) to 43, down from 44.1; 13 of 18 industries contracted w/metals weakness leading the charge as "order book continues to shrink"

[Armageddon]

US Construction spending CRATERS! And Manufacturing falls AGAIN.. The US Economy IS IN RECESSION...


Twitter

[rockdoc123]

The US Economy IS IN RECESSION...

Horsecrap.....there has not been 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP, there hasn't been one quarter of negative GDP in a very long time.
Also employment levels have never anywhere near this high in any previous recession.
But keep making stuff up.

[Armageddon]

The US Economy IS IN RECESSION...

Horsecrap.....there has not been 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP, there hasn't been one quarter of negative GDP in a very long time.
Also employment levels have never anywhere near this high in any previous recession.
But keep making stuff up.

Does the recession start at the beginning of the first negative quarter, or at the end of the 2nd negative quarter?

[AdamB]

I’ve heard experts say we were on the verge on a complete global collapse in 2008.

You did. Ruppert, Savinar, Alex Jones, you seemed to be quite the fan. Said experts having variously killed themselves, decided that their true vocation rather than doom expert was palm reading, or were conspiracy fruitcakes from the get go. Quite a band of experts you kept in your back pocket back then.

Nowadays you seem to quote more stats than anything else, and presume that said stats mean doom. Did you ever stop along the way to reevaluate how poorly the older claims of collapse fared? And why didn't you start up a economic news/collapse thread rather than putting economic stats in a stock market thread?

The credit markets were nearly shut down. Without credit, everything stops. The FED had an emergency meeting to supply massive liquidity to stop it. What’s coming this time is going to dwarf 2008

We'll see. I haven't found you saying anything back then to the tune of "gee things are gonna crash, but then they'll turn into a fantastic equities opportunity and we'll all make a mint...but then the next collapse will be a doozy!"

A realization I came to a long time watching Happy McPeaksters is just obvious...doomers gotta doom. It wouldn't matter if it was 2012 again...you'd be saying the same thing. Wanna bet if I do a review of your 2012 posts, after the recovery was moving and oil prices are high, that you would be saying the same thing you were before the recession? And still are?