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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Yoshua » Sat 30 Nov 2019, 11:30:41

Armageddon wrote:
AdamB wrote:
onlooker wrote:End is approaching for fiat money and BAU Capitalusm
https://www.rt.com/shows/keiser-report/ ... t-warning/


<yawn>

Yes...we know...Happy McPeaksters have been saying the same thing since this website came online. It would be funny as spit if the end actually came, it had nothing to do with peak oil, and everything to do with bad fiscal management that took place only AFTER the Happy McPeaksters claimed it was already happening.

Broken clocks...etc etc...




I’ve always wondered if this collapse is due to debt or peak oil. I think both are having a race to the finish line. You can always have a debt reset. You can’t have an energy reset.


Energy and machines allows us to produce amazing things...but they also allows us to strip mine the resources. I think that depletion is the end game.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 30 Nov 2019, 11:32:02

I said that QE 4 will be bigger than QE1,2 and 3 combined


The central banks are attempting to compensate for the debt growth which destroys the currency in circulation. Judging by the debt curve, QE4, will need to be much greater than QE1 - 3 combined.

The chances that the credit markets can absorb that magnitude of liquidity expansion are almost zero. It appears that the central banks intend to purse this course of action until the entire monetary system self destructs. This is the 1% informing us they are not going to lose their preferred positions at any price.

Then what little surprise will they have in store for us? Empty store shelves will inevitably be one of them!

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 30 Nov 2019, 11:57:49

I’ve always wondered if this collapse is due to debt or peak oil. I think both are having a race to the finish line. You can always have a debt reset. You can’t have an energy reset.


Energy and machines allows us to produce amazing things...but they also allows us to strip mine the resources. I think that depletion is the end game.


The data definitely substantiates your statement. The depletion curve always has been, and always will be unrelenting. Absolute confirmation will be coming within the next few months. It will not be a welcomed introduction to reality.

Then again the crazies harbored in the world's capitals just may blow us off the face of the globe. Their trigger fingers appear to be getting increasingly itchy.

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 30 Nov 2019, 12:22:42

Yoshua wrote:Energy and machines allows us to produce amazing things...but they also allows us to strip mine the resources. I think that depletion is the end game.


Depletion was going on before you were born, and the entire time you've been alive. Seems like the act of depletion isn't the end, but just part of the normal process that has given you the internet, grid fired power and a position to complain and pretend it means any more today than it did before you ever even knew what it was.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 30 Nov 2019, 12:33:20

shortonoil wrote:Image


Look at that!! Silly image references from an image site with nothing to back it up except an R^2 number! You would think that The Hill Group would be proud to use the link from their own domain! Of course, that wouldn't be the case if the information used to manufacture silly charts had been so thoroughly discredited by reality that the authors had to pull all incriminating information off the internet to keep the riotous laughter to a minimum.

In either case, is anyone else but me surprised by the fact that we are in Part 11 of the Stock Market Crash!!!...without said crash? Or is it inconvenient to mention reality among those so desperate for bad news of any kind that they can't help but continuing to be...welshing Happy McDoomsters!
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 30 Nov 2019, 14:07:50

Depletion was going on before you were born, and the entire time you've been alive. Seems like the act of depletion isn't the end, but just part of the normal process that has given you the internet, grid fired power and a position to complain and pretend it means any more today than it did before you ever even knew what it was.


You must truly be one of the most ignorant, self serving, self centered people who have ever walked. Depletion destroyed Rome; you imbecile. It destroyed their silver mines in Iberia, and their copper mines in Macedonia. It has destroyed a good portion of the world’s crop lands, and fish stocks. You act like God is going to give you some kind of special access to unlimited resources. He is not, and you have not been given a special pass to rape and plunder the planet. Your attitude that we can take anything that pleases us; that we have some kind of right to all of it, is disgusting. Your mind set is a plague on the planet.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 30 Nov 2019, 14:26:37

Yoshua wrote:
Armageddon wrote:
AdamB wrote:
onlooker wrote:End is approaching for fiat money and BAU Capitalusm
https://www.rt.com/shows/keiser-report/ ... t-warning/


<yawn>

Yes...we know...Happy McPeaksters have been saying the same thing since this website came online. It would be funny as spit if the end actually came, it had nothing to do with peak oil, and everything to do with bad fiscal management that took place only AFTER the Happy McPeaksters claimed it was already happening.

Broken clocks...etc etc...




I’ve always wondered if this collapse is due to debt or peak oil. I think both are having a race to the finish line. You can always have a debt reset. You can’t have an energy reset.


Energy and machines allows us to produce amazing things...but they also allows us to strip mine the resources. I think that depletion is the end game.

Yes, because:

1). There's nothing deep in the earth's crust. :roll:
2). Strip mining means we'll mine EVERYTHING by, oh, next week or so. 8)

And yet, in the REAL world, there are plenty of counter-examples. For just two:

It was recently discovered that MASSIVE MASSIVE formerly unknown rare earth metals deposits were found undersea near Japan. It will be accessed when the demand is sufficient, and the price is right, of course.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/12/japan-r ... cific.html

Researchers have found hundreds of years’ worth of rare-earth materials underneath Japanese waters — enough to supply to the world on a “semi-infinite basis,” according to a study published in Nature Publishing Group’s Scientific Reports.

(And that's just ONE find, near Japan. Suddenly "rare earth metals" not looking so rare.) :idea:

And of course, there's lots and lots of crude oil, including frackable oil. The more we look, them more we find, and of course if there is a relative global shortage for any period of time, which will cause the price to rise to over $100, or even over $150 a BBL, well, then, there's lots more incentive to look and produce, and guess what happens to available crude resources over the next decade or so?

And of course, those two tie together, because hopefully with all the EV activity and all those rare earth metals, we don't even NEED all that oil -- assuming we can get smart enough not to burn it all even if it's cheaper in the short run.

...

But yeah, let's say it's the "end game", just like the doomers have always done, decade after decade, because:

a). They MUST be right this time. And we should believe that. :lol:
b). Because technology and how it impacts extraction, conservation, recycling, substitution, and efficiency re the USE of expensive resources NEVER, EVER changes. :roll:
c). Because that's what fast crash doomers do, regardless of any data which might inconveniently show otherwise, at least in the short to moderate term. 8)
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 01 Dec 2019, 13:42:12

Serious Auto Loan Delinquencies (More Than 90 Days Past Due) In Q3 Hit A Historic High Of $62 Billion.

That’s what happens when you try to force cars down people’s throats to boost sales by lowering the loan standards. I said this would happen.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 01 Dec 2019, 15:12:53

shortonoil wrote:
Depletion was going on before you were born, and the entire time you've been alive. Seems like the act of depletion isn't the end, but just part of the normal process that has given you the internet, grid fired power and a position to complain and pretend it means any more today than it did before you ever even knew what it was.


You must truly be one of the most ignorant, self serving, self centered people who have ever walked.


Because I know when oil and gas depletion started, and that it continues to this very day? I'll take that brand. Better than being a welsher, right?
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 01 Dec 2019, 22:06:45

With only a month left in the year, global auto sales are on track for a 3.1 million drop, about 4%, for the year, according to Fitch. That would be the biggest decline since 2008


the Cass Freight Index has declined for 11 consecutive months


Consumer confidence dipped for a fourth straight month in November as economic conditions weaken toward the end of 2019, data released Tuesday by The Conference Board shows.

Global trade on a YoY basis contracted by 1.1% in September, marking the fourth consecutive YoY declines and the most extended period of subdued trade since the financial crisis in 2009.


Down and down we go
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 01 Dec 2019, 22:38:21

Armageddon wrote:With only a month left in the year, global auto sales are on track for a 3.1 million drop, about 4%, for the year, according to Fitch. That would be the biggest decline since 2008


Have you always thought that global auto sales are important, or is this a new addition to your "economy on its last legs" list?

Armageddon wrote:the Cass Freight Index has declined for 11 consecutive months


Sounds pretty bad for shippers. Pretty good for consumers. You didn't venture an opinion as to which was more important in the economy, so I'll ask. Which is more important in the US economy?

Armageddon wrote:Consumer confidence dipped for a fourth straight month in November as economic conditions weaken toward the end of 2019, data released Tuesday by The Conference Board shows.


Wow. Sounds horrible. Did you use this index when you proclaimed the end of the US economy the last time, or is it a new addition to the information you use to proclaim the end?

Armageddon wrote:Global trade on a YoY basis contracted by 1.1% in September, marking the fourth consecutive YoY declines and the most extended period of subdued trade since the financial crisis in 2009.


Sounds like maybe a recession is coming. I asked before, and you studiously avoid answering, what are your suggestions for making a mint on the far side of this potential recession? You seem to be trying to act as a bell weather of some sort, yet without ever mentioning all the potential upside later? Can you expound on that?

For example, back in 2005-2006, you were quite bearish on housing, lamenting that your $450G house was fortunately paid off. Did the housing crisis back then that you were so afeared of decrease the value of your property, or is it worth more now, like most everyone else's housing? You might admit that it is hard to pitch a housing downfall, have it happen, and then have it recover to higher heights and then NOT have an opinion on how to take advantage of the flipside, right? You were able to do it, so how can the rest of us? I did it in equities, did you take advantage of the last recession that way as well?

armageddon wrote:Down and down we go


Since 2005 according to you. You figure we'll get there, one of these decades?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 01 Dec 2019, 22:58:18

Missed this one...


Black Friday Is Coming, And 48 Million Americans Still Have Holiday Debt From Last Year


Can’t be true. We are in boom times according to the shills here.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 01 Dec 2019, 23:02:12

Armageddon wrote:Missed this one...


Black Friday Is Coming, And 48 Million Americans Still Have Holiday Debt From Last Year


Can’t be true. We are in boom times according to the shills here.


Noticing that you were proclaiming the end, 5 minutes after you began posting here 14-15 years ago, and never getting the doom you wanted, doesn't make those who notice your never ending story of doom shills. Just observant, and one of those oft claimed, but rarely seen, objective and critical thinking types.

How has Alex Jones been treating you lately? Any good conspiracies you want to mix in with incessant non-stock market crash news?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 01 Dec 2019, 23:14:53

We’ll just have to wait and see how they stop this one.

Record govt debt
1.4 trillion govt deficit
Record consumer debt
Record credit card debt
Record corporate debt
Record student loan debt

Debts and deficits are exploding.

Heading to 0% GDP and 0% interest rates simultaneously, which is unprecedented. QE4 is underway. Repo market bailouts are 100+ billion per night.

Governments and central banks are hoarding gold like never before in history. Gee, do you think they know what’s coming?


It’s almost comical that people are even debating this topic with me. But that’s fine, I’m enjoying it. We are just getting started.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 01 Dec 2019, 23:41:08

Armageddon wrote:We’ll just have to wait and see how they stop this one.


The "we" meaning you and Alex Jones?

How come you aren't talking about cool stuff like you used to?

by Armageddon » Sat 04 Jun 2005, 18:04:07 wrote:predict the year when the draft starts. i say 2006


record record record blah blah blah, you said the same stuff 13-14 years ago, but then you REALLY put it out there. Were you ever caught up in that draft in 2006, because they sure didn't get me!

I haven't found any alien invasion stuff yet, did any of your sources ever give you a bead on them?

Armageddon wrote:It’s almost comical that people are even debating this topic with me. But that’s fine, I’m enjoying it. We are just getting started.


It's almost comical you have been howling at the moon for this long and don't even realize you are an endless broken record...and have been getting started for 15 years! Why not fire back up the cool stuff, aliens, etc etc?I found the Ruppert fetish though. And OMG dude, you called Matt Savinar an optimist compared to you? What was that about? Astrologer optimist!
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 02 Dec 2019, 00:00:19

Typical diversionary tactics
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 02 Dec 2019, 00:05:59

Armageddon wrote:Typical diversionary tactics


You can't answer a single question as to why your near 15 year run at claiming the end is nigh hasn't been followed by the end, can you? Is it diversionary for folks to notice that for all your caterwauling...you are STILL caterwauling? The things you say are bringing about the end, are now the ones you claim SAVED us last time? Who is now being diversionary?
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Yoshua » Mon 02 Dec 2019, 02:34:00

The evolution of human civilization has been driven by energy and technology ever since the day we humans learned how to master fire (energy) and make tools (technology).

Unless we find a new energy source our civilization has now peaked.

Scraping up what's left at the bottom of the oil barrel is not a solution... it's desperation.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 02 Dec 2019, 09:51:31

You can't answer a single question as to why your near 15 year run at claiming the end is nigh hasn't been followed by the end, can you?


Apparently he doesn't live in Venezuela, Iran, Baltimore, or work for an auto manufacture! 2020 looks to be the big down turn in employment. The social fabric is going to get stretched to the breaking point this coming year. The mass riots are just getting started.

Unless we find a new energy source our civilization has now peaked.


The level of civilization is directly proportional to energy consumption per capita. This one is heading in the direction of the Dodo Bird. We are looking ever more like a mollusc than a primate. If net energy is taken into consideration (the energy available to perform work) we are already burning down the house to keep it warm. The amount of fixed assets there are remaining to be consumed is rapidly approaching its limit. The rate of the debt build is a good indication of just how far down he proverbial rabbit hole we have already gone.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 02 Dec 2019, 09:55:06

Yoshua wrote:The evolution of human civilization has been driven by energy and technology ever since the day we humans learned how to master fire (energy) and make tools (technology).
Unless we find a new energy source our civilization has now peaked.
Scraping up what's left at the bottom of the oil barrel is not a solution... it's desperation.


Usually when backed against the wall, doomers fall back to generic limits to growth pronouncements like the above. They really aren't useful in making short-term predictions like the topic of this thread.

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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