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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 26 Nov 2019, 20:19:57

Dallas Fed president believes ballooning debt could suddenly become a big issue for economy


What’s next, is he going to tell us water is wet?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 26 Nov 2019, 21:06:24

Yoshua wrote:World total car sales are now down to the GFC level...and this time no one is showing growth.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EKUqmxDWkAA ... name=small



US consumer intentions to buy a new car in the next six months have crashed
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby sparky » Wed 27 Nov 2019, 04:49:17

.
How to boost sales ...easy , any car more than two years old is classified as a clunker
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 27 Nov 2019, 09:53:45

Dallas Fed president believes ballooning debt could suddenly become a big issue for economy



What’s next, is he going to tell us water is wet?


Someone at the FED finally noticed that debt destroys productivity, capital investment, profits, innovation, return on capital, and the economy goes to shit! That must be why they are being paid the BIG bucks! It takes a lot of skill to efficiently suck all the money out of the bottom, and transfer it to the top, while at the same time telling everyone that their Negative Delta Gamma thingamajig is working just fine.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Cog » Wed 27 Nov 2019, 11:13:47

Given the meteoric rise in the market, I'll be buying a new pick up this spring. Maybe a Ford this time.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 27 Nov 2019, 11:27:42

That’s probably a good idea. Turn some of that fake money into something tangible, presuming you are paying cash.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 27 Nov 2019, 11:35:33

5 More Signs That The Global Economy Is Careening Toward A Recession
In all the time that I have been writing about the global economy, things have never looked more ominous then they do right now.

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/5-m ... -recession

Now let's see.....? the big "C" part of C&C is at Peak , the world is dying from energy starvation, the world's debt load is way beyond serviceable, the world is being run by, and for the benefit of a handful of billionaires, the world's social fabric is starting to look like a Japanese flag over Guadalcanal, and the production of everything from autos, to pork chops is crashing.

There is nothing here that a little bit of positive thinking can't cure! Let's not get all negative about the coming end of civilization. Wall Street is convinced that it is just another turn in the business cycle. Buy some call options on hog bristles, and it will all work out just fine.

Reality is beginning to show up a little more frequently than the third Thursday of the month that has a full moon.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 27 Nov 2019, 12:29:45

I still think with more rate cuts and massive printing and QE, they can keep the party going until the election.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 27 Nov 2019, 12:51:26

The Us economy grew at a moderate 2.1% annual rate in the third quarter compared to the Commerce department's initial estimate of 1.9% growth.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/27/us-gdp-q3-2019-second-reading.html

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits declined 15,000 to a seasonally adjusted 213,000 for the week ended Nov 23. This compares to forecasts for 221,000 jobless claims.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/27/weekly-jobless-claims.html

The Commerce Department says orders for durable goods — which are meant to last at least three years — rose 0.6% in October after dropping 1.4% in September. Orders for military aircraft soared 18.1%. Excluding defense, durable goods orders blipped up 0.1%.
The numbers reflected a strike at General Motors, settled in late October. Orders for cars and auto parts fell 1.9% in October and 2.9% in September.
American manufacturing has been hurt by a trade war with China and a slowing global economy. Overall October orders were better than economists had expected.
In addition, a closely watched category that tracks business investment rose 1.2% last month after dropping in September.


https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/27/us-durable-goods-orders-october-2019.html
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby marmico » Wed 27 Nov 2019, 12:56:41

Image
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 27 Nov 2019, 13:54:22

Newfie wrote:That’s probably a good idea. Turn some of that fake money into something tangible, presuming you are paying cash.

I have a good friend who applied that principle in the opposite market -- but diversifying for good value when the relative timing was excellent. When nearly everyone else was in a panic and selling everything not nailed down (or afraid to put cash to work in cheap assets), he bought a very nice house in a great area with a chunk of his retirement savings in early 2009 -- for under half what it had been priced at a year prior.

And he paid cash. He was in his late 40's, and had been saving and investing a significant portion of his salary since day one at his IBM job (at my urging), so he was in good financial shape for his age. But as he put it, he wanted to diversify into something tangible, which could likely be sold if needed, as part of his retirement, especially given how we seemed to have some big financial crisis about once a decade -- and the current one was damn scary, re the magnitude and it being global. And he's put a little money into maintaining the thing, but it's now worth roughly nearly 3 times what he bought it for, and it made his wife and kids VERY happy campers.

So unlike me, he has some bravery as well as financial common sense (my depression era parents pretty much instilled the financial wisdom, but sucked out the bravery part re finances).

So yeah, I'd say diversifying/balancing some with part of the money one has accumulated during this terrific bull market sounds great. Whether it's for something you need, like say a work truck, and will use for a long time, or its just a shift to some safer investments which wouldn't be crushed in a moderate to bad downturn, but has less chance of high returns. (I could be wrong, but I absolutely do NOT believe that the business cycle has ended, just because we've been fortunate for a decade plus re the economy. I just think trying to time the things accurately and consistently is pure fantasy.)
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 27 Nov 2019, 13:57:22

marmico wrote:Image

It would appear that as usual, in the doom story telling, armageddon neglected to point out how volatile and therefore sketchy (re any real value) that Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast is. Probably too focused on cherries and agendas. :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Yoshua » Wed 27 Nov 2019, 14:16:41

Armageddon wrote:I still think with more rate cuts and massive printing and QE, they can keep the party going until the election.


The U.S needs energy to operate the economy.

The world needs dollars to operate their economies.

As long as the U.S is the largest military power in the world and owns the world reserve currency, the U S will be fine.

A paradigm shift has perhaps really taken place? As the world burns down, the U.S rises.

At least until some point.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 27 Nov 2019, 14:42:08

Yoshua wrote:
Armageddon wrote:I still think with more rate cuts and massive printing and QE, they can keep the party going until the election.


The U.S needs energy to operate the economy.

The world needs dollars to operate their economies.

As long as the U.S is the largest military power in the world and owns the world reserve currency, the U S will be fine.

A paradigm shift has perhaps really taken place? As the world burns down, the U.S rises.

At least until some point.

Um, and how is the world burning down?

Are you talking fincially, even as the global GDP remains positive and the outlook remains positive?

Are you talking climate change? CA is alarming, but it's not the world, and much smarter policies would certainly help a lot. In my view, even though they won't like it, the residents will vote for policies to make it better, given the consequences.

Or something else?

After all, the world "burning down" seems awfully far away from reality, looked at through a remotely objective lens.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 27 Nov 2019, 15:05:49

Wake me when doom arrives.

Image

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 27 Nov 2019, 16:02:20

Durable Goods Orders Jump on Defense Spending

Military spending led the increase in orders and the surge in capital goods as well. Hooray?!
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 27 Nov 2019, 16:05:16

Armageddon wrote:Durable Goods Orders Jump on Defense Spending

Military spending led the increase in orders and the surge in capital goods as well. Hooray?!

So no good statistic ever counts if you can find a way, any way to try and put a negative spin on it.

Got it. :roll:

As usual, your case is "great". :lol:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 27 Nov 2019, 16:59:53

100% Irrefutable PROOF: The US Economy IS NOW IN COLLAPSE... By Gregory Mannarino

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=kUsedFKI- ... e=youtu.be

Watch if you dare. Pretty telling
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 27 Nov 2019, 17:07:27

100% of the real GDP revision higher was an $11 billion upward revision to inventories
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 28 Nov 2019, 01:50:32

Armageddon wrote:100% Irrefutable PROOF: The US Economy IS NOW IN COLLAPSE... By Gregory Mannarino

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=kUsedFKI- ... e=youtu.be

Watch if you dare. Pretty telling

Is this as prescient as what you shared re the QE4 claims on Youtube, when the main hand waving doomer you cited was certain that by November, the Fed would completely lose control and hyperinflation would be upon us.

I realize that's like catnip to you, but as usual re your pronouncements of incoming short term doom, were COMPLETELY wrong, as the SOFR, etc. rates are down below 1.6% and 1.7% at the 99% loan threshold, and drifting downward. Oh, and that is with the operation (which the Fed says is not like the previous QE's to deal with the great recession, but of course, you know so much better because you SAY you're an expert in economics :roll: ).

https://apps.newyorkfed.org/markets/autorates/sofr

If this guy isn't a self promoting scammer like Porter Stansberry (google "Stansberry fraud" for some perspective on that clown), I'm the great pumpkin.

...

I can see why you like this guy though. About a 2% drop in US Industrial production over the past year, and this guy yammers "free fall" about 10 times. Consistent with how you spam this thread with nonsense and say "collapse" a LOT about things that bear no resemblance to collapse. Yeah, SO credible. :roll:

Now, when industrial production is the whole economy, THEN the Fed is lying when they say US GDP is growing and there is a drop in that.

This guy is clearly trying to drum up business re his advertising on this page. He reflects nothing more than what you bray: debt is "exploding" and "everything else is crashing", but shows no real evidence of that.

So thanks for another look at more doomer nonsense. /s

Convincing -- NOT AT ALL.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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