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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 23 Nov 2019, 03:55:30

Armageddon wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Let’s wait and see if Trump signs the bill first before you claim victory.

If you're now going to back up and change your claim to "it's only bad if Trump signs the bill", then be honest about it in the first place and either:

1). State that it's really bad IF Trump signs the bill.

2). Wait until Trump signs the bill and THEN claim its really bad.

Instead, you do all this false doom mongering, and then get all shifty when someone calls you on it, and then expect to be considered credible. Doesn't work for short, and doesn't work for you.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 23 Nov 2019, 12:04:35

ShortOnOil Jan 25, 2005 wrote:Because I have seen an innumerable number of bad mining deposit studies over the years, I didn’t take PO as a matter of fact. I did all the research that was possible on the subject. I calculated to the best accuracy possible depletion rates of existing fields and applied PERT methodology to analogous estimates of potential field development and production. In general, I applied all the tools available to me to ascertain the probability of PO occurring in the foreseeable future. My conclusions are that PO has a very high probability of occurring in the very near future. A risk matrix of PO also gives a totally unacceptable potential for world wide disastrous consequences. Unfortunately, I find that I must agree totally with the studies done by Defeyes, Colin and Simmons.


So an ignorant, uneducated jackass disagrees with three world class petro-gelogists? How impressive. Not! It is a rather blatant statement of a self centered, self serving, pathological head case looking to refute what they are entirely unsuited to comment upon with any substance. It is a common response that originates from those carrying a massive, well deserved, inferiority complex. You should get a refund on your last lobotomy. There was nothing that science could have done for you. You apparently always were, and always will be a complete moron deluded by your own exaggerated sense of self worth. But, no one can really blame the surgeons for working on the wrong end. No one informed them that this one had shit-for-brains.

Peak Oil apparently occurred in 2005 - 2007. It has only been through massive central bank intervention to debase the currency, and put the world into a perpetual state of debt slavery that a complete loser like Shale could ever have come into existence. A herd of zombie companies attempting to squeeze a low grade camel pee out of solid rock, at a tremendous loss, did not save the world from its inevitable fate at end of the oil age. It only provided one more baseless illusion of our mythological prosperity.

The world is now coming apart on every front; economic, geopolitical, environmental, and social. It is occurring because the world is now completely, totally, irrevocably bankrupt! The impending implosion of its debt based fiat currency system will herald in a new era of massive world wide poverty, and destitution. Future generations will curse us, and marvel at what was nothing but unbounded, unlimited, credulous stupidity.

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby marmico » Sat 23 Nov 2019, 12:33:34

Yo, Bozo Bedford, formerly known as ETP Bozo. For the fourth time, fix your global debt chart or STFU you effing retard.

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Speaking of lying retards, here is a Bozo Bedford post at the Cassandra Legacy blog on July 14, 2016.

Myself, and some of my colleagues were sitting in an oyster bar in Toronto in May of 2004. That was when Matt had stated that he had recently taken a considerable beating on his stock holdings in Shell Oil. Shell had, out of blue, reduced their reserve estimates by 20%, and the stock had crashed. After voting to pay the bar bill for our partner, we got into a heated discussion as to how much oil was actually available in the world to be extracted. Roy had quipped that "wouldn't it be a bitch to wake up one morning, and find that the last 10 gallons of oil on the planet was in the tank of your car". Matt had replied, "nonsense, there is probably centuries of oil remaining", Roy came back with, "where did you hear that, Shell"? We spent the next two years looking for the answer to that question.

We finally had to admit to that no one really knew. Having worked with many of these outfits over the years we were very well aware of their propensity to invent information that might enhance their business. As a collection of, "if you got a problem we can find the answer" engineers, we set out to figure it out for ourselves.

We soon determined that counting barrels was only a reliable indicator if you were an oil company selling barrels of oil. We began looking for another methodology with which to solve the problem. A fledgling Etp Model appeared as a thermodynamic approach. After attempting to market the study, and finding ourselves on the front steps of a few oil companies we retired it to the file cabinet. A few years later someone said, "we should at least tell people what we have discovered. Let's put up a web site".

Being in the last decade of the oil age is not exactly where I intended to be 20 years ago. But, on the other hand it is not surprising. The world has been pumping the hell out of this resource of a 150 years. It is a little amazing that we have made it this far. We found the answer to the question that we originally proposed because we really wanted to know what it was. Now that the bell is tolling many will be asking, "how could we not have known"? Perhaps, it is just that we really didn't want to know?

https://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/20 ... l-age.html
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 23 Nov 2019, 15:27:37

marmico wrote:Yo, Bozo Bedford, formerly known as ETP Bozo. For the fourth time, fix your global debt chart or STFU you effing retard.

Image

Speaking of lying retards, here is a Bozo Bedford post at the Cassandra Legacy blog on July 14, 2016.

Myself, and some of my colleagues were sitting in an oyster bar in Toronto in May of 2004. That was when Matt had stated that he had recently taken a considerable beating on his stock holdings in Shell Oil. Shell had, out of blue, reduced their reserve estimates by 20%, and the stock had crashed. After voting to pay the bar bill for our partner, we got into a heated discussion as to how much oil was actually available in the world to be extracted. Roy had quipped that "wouldn't it be a bitch to wake up one morning, and find that the last 10 gallons of oil on the planet was in the tank of your car". Matt had replied, "nonsense, there is probably centuries of oil remaining", Roy came back with, "where did you hear that, Shell"? We spent the next two years looking for the answer to that question.

We finally had to admit to that no one really knew. Having worked with many of these outfits over the years we were very well aware of their propensity to invent information that might enhance their business. As a collection of, "if you got a problem we can find the answer" engineers, we set out to figure it out for ourselves.

We soon determined that counting barrels was only a reliable indicator if you were an oil company selling barrels of oil. We began looking for another methodology with which to solve the problem. A fledgling Etp Model appeared as a thermodynamic approach. After attempting to market the study, and finding ourselves on the front steps of a few oil companies we retired it to the file cabinet. A few years later someone said, "we should at least tell people what we have discovered. Let's put up a web site".

Being in the last decade of the oil age is not exactly where I intended to be 20 years ago. But, on the other hand it is not surprising. The world has been pumping the hell out of this resource of a 150 years. It is a little amazing that we have made it this far. We found the answer to the question that we originally proposed because we really wanted to know what it was. Now that the bell is tolling many will be asking, "how could we not have known"? Perhaps, it is just that we really didn't want to know?

https://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/20 ... l-age.html

Well, maybe he can lie and try to claim credibility re stupid assertions (and never ever answer a valid criticism re his ETP or MAP) for ANOTHER 15 years or so.

By then, we might well have seen peak global oil demand from EV uptake, even though the demand for petrochemicals globally looks to grow endlessly unless better substitutes can be found. I wonder if his various acolytes will still be listening.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Yoshua » Sun 24 Nov 2019, 08:37:51

The protests spread to another two nations this week: Iran and Colombia.

In Iran people were burning down banks, gas stations and police stations after a gasoline price hike.

In Colombia there are reports of looting and armed civilians protecting their neighbours against looters.

Sounds as if the masses at the bottom are starting to get desperate.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 24 Nov 2019, 09:28:52

U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Continue To Deteriorate


https://seekingalpha.com/article/430862 ... rge-abroad


2016 bounce was caused by Chinese fiscal and monetary stimulus, furthered by US $1.5t corp tax cut.


Good luck fueling this one.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 25 Nov 2019, 08:06:33

Market cap to GDP: 147.5%
Market price to sales: 2.2
Debt to GDP: 110%
Corporate debt: $10 trillion
US debt: $23 trillion
Consumer debt: $14 trillion
Earnings growth: Zero
Q4 GDP growth: 0.5%
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 25 Nov 2019, 11:23:54

Yoshua wrote:The protests spread to another two nations this week: Iran and Colombia.

In Iran people were burning down banks, gas stations and police stations after a gasoline price hike.

In Colombia there are reports of looting and armed civilians protecting their neighbours against looters.

Sounds as if the masses at the bottom are starting to get desperate.

For quite a few years now, any decent sized protests in the news ANYWHERE, and for ANY reason, and you claim it's peak oil related and portending doom.

And yet, you're always wrong on the doom, and always wrong on the peak oil (given that production keeps increasing over time, globally).

What's the point? That you might accidentally be right for 15 minutes some day?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 25 Nov 2019, 11:33:53

Armageddon wrote:Market cap to GDP: 147.5%
Market price to sales: 2.2
Debt to GDP: 110%
Corporate debt: $10 trillion
US debt: $23 trillion
Consumer debt: $14 trillion
Earnings growth: Zero
Q4 GDP growth: 0.5%

The GDP is a forecast. Given your track record, so much for that being in the bag. The other things are just continuations of longstanding trends.

The inflationistas were crying about US debt and screaming doom via hyperinflation right around the corner in 1985. You've only been falsely claiming it's right around the corner here since about 2011, but still, your prescience is worthless.

The S&P 500 P/E ratio is roughly average what it's been for the past 20 years. But of course, no mention of things like THAT.

https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio

Consumer Sentiment Index stronger for November, per CNBC, but let's not talk about THAT.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/22/us-cons ... -2019.html

You're so unbalanced it's a wonder you can stand up.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 25 Nov 2019, 12:11:30

Sounds as if the masses at the bottom are starting to get desperate.


As the Ponzi scheme known as the fractional reserve banking system continues to implode this will become a world wide phenomena that will soon be happening in everyone’s back yard. It now requires over $8 in new debt formation to generate $1 in additional GDP. The central banks ability to stabilize the system is now very limited, and growing less by the day.

As world debt formation continues to follow petroleum's depletion curve the debt load becomes increasing unserviceable. Oil's tremendous leverage on the way up is working equally well on the way down, and that leverage is growing as the depletion curve advances. Debt creation destroys currency in circulation, which then must be replaced by the central banks if the economy is to continue functioning. As the debt grows the world begins falling into a liquidity trap, and news of liquidity shortages, like the latest US repo failure, become front and center. When debt formation (currency destruction) becomes equal to the currency in circulation all new currency created is immediately sucked into a black hole of insolvency. All new currency created is then destroyed instantly upon presentation to satisfy existing indebtedness. The world's tremendous, and exploding debt begins collapsing into an avalanche of cascading defaults.

That situation will take place at a debt creation rate of $62.8 trillion per year. Along its present course that will be occurring within about two years. The next, and final world wide depression will then be here, and it won't be televised! Assurances of remediation will be abundant, and completely ineffectual. The geopolitical impact will redraw the map of the world. Welcome to the end of the oil age!

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Yoshua » Mon 25 Nov 2019, 13:25:52

There are nation close to apocalypse...and then there are a lot of nations standing in line to join...and then there are nations that stand at the end of the line...

The weaker nations will of course go down first...and so will the weak in every nation.

This is going to be a very complex event.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Yoshua » Mon 25 Nov 2019, 13:56:19

The president of Chile just announced that he will be introducing a bill that will allow the military to police the nation.

The military is specialised in the use of lethal force...
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 25 Nov 2019, 18:40:53

Ray Dalio reportedly bought $1 billion of put options in the S&P 500, and central banks continue to add to gold reserves. What does this signal?


https://www.kitco.com/news/video/show/K ... for-crisis
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 25 Nov 2019, 20:43:42

The Dallas Fed Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey Dips Into Negative Territory for the First Time Since 2016

Chicago Fed "Index Suggests Economic Growth Slowed Further in October"
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 25 Nov 2019, 21:03:19

Global trade contracted by 1.1% in September, marking the fourth consecutive year-on-year contraction and the longest period of falling trade since the financial crisis in 2009.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby StarvingLion » Tue 26 Nov 2019, 12:18:30

The Peasants cannot afford a dollar store...hahahahahaha.

Dollar Tree Stores, Inc., formerly known as Only $1.00, is an American chain of discount variety stores that sells items for $1 or less.

DLTR stock is down 17% today.

Hewlett Packard Enterprise is collapsing again. Down 10%

In other news, Cog the Fake Capitalist won't invest in oil companies...I wonder why?

This is why...his namesake is collapsing.

Cabot Oil & Gas Corporation is a company engaged in hydrocarbon exploration. It is organized in Delaware and based in Houston, Texas

COG is down 4% today...in total collapse mode
Cog's brain was in a jar left open and maggots ate it.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby marmico » Tue 26 Nov 2019, 13:05:39

New Home Sales Near 12 Year High

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New Housing Building Permits Near 12 Year High

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Yoshua » Tue 26 Nov 2019, 14:59:38

World total car sales are now down to the GFC level...and this time no one is showing growth.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EKUqmxDWkAA ... name=small
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 26 Nov 2019, 17:14:56

Semi-conductor fabrication equip sales to drop 26% in 2020.

"UBS sees wafer-fab equipment falling to $26 billion or so in 2020 from $35 billion for 2019."

Sales of semis are lead US GDP indicator.

#Semiconductor chips are used in production-of / embedded-in almost ALL products these days.

When chip mfg equip sales projected -26% next year, it WARNS about ENTIRE ECONOMY.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 26 Nov 2019, 18:21:26

US consumer confidence falls for fourth consecutive month
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