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Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby Azothius » Fri 20 Dec 2019, 11:42:28

Australian Crop Report: December edition
[these are forecasts]

.https://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares/r ... rop-report

Winter crop production is forecast to fall by 3% in 2019–20 to 29.4 million tonnes,
which is around 27% below the 10-year average to 2018–19.
Production is forecast to fall for the third consecutive year since record high production was achieved in 2016–17.
Production is forecast to be below average in every state except Victoria, where above average production is expected.

For the major winter crops:
Wheat production is forecast to decrease by 8% to around 15.9 million tonnes,
35% below the 10-year average to 2018–19.

Barley production is forecast to increase by 4% to around 8.7 million tonnes,
3% below the 10-year average to 2018–19.

Canola production is forecast to fall by 4% to around 2.1 million tonnes,
35% below the 10-year average to 2018–19.

Area planted to winter crops is estimated to have increased to just under 18.1 million hectares, partly because a smaller area of crops intended for grains and oilseeds production was cut for hay this year than last year.
The crops planted for grains and oilseeds production that were cut for hay this year were cut in response to high fodder prices and unfavourable seasonal conditions in September in regions with low levels of soil moisture at the beginning of spring.

Area planted to summer crops is expected to fall in 2019–20 for the second consecutive year to 535,000 hectares, which reflects low levels of soil moisture and an unfavourable outlook for seasonal conditions during summer in Queensland and northern New South Wales.
Summer crop production is forecast to decline by 52% to around 1.2 million tonnes.
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby Zarquon » Fri 20 Dec 2019, 18:40:24

Newfie wrote:I’ve been looking for a concise source of data that shows stats for world grain imports and exports. Rice, wheat, corn, soybean. Ideally it would show where major exporters sold and where major importers bought.

I find a lot of BS statistics but not much that puts things into a global perspective. I found statistics.con which MAY have these stats but they want money for access.


Try this site:
https://www.indexmundi.com/agriculture/ ... -harvested

"All data is sourced from the United States Department of Agriculture PSD database. It is updated approximately once per month."
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby Azothius » Thu 16 Jan 2020, 11:46:42

Record 45 million people across Southern Africa face hunger: U.N. food agency
https://www.yahoo.com/news/record-45-million-people-across-122151373.html



JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - The United Nations World Food Programme said on Thursday that a record 45 million people in the 16-nation Southern African Development Community faced growing hunger following repeated drought, widespread flooding and economic disarray.

Southern Africa is in the grips of a severe drought, as climate change wreaks havoc in impoverished countries already struggling to cope with extreme natural disasters, such as Cyclone Idai which devastated Mozambique, Zimbabwe and Malawi in 2019.

Zimbabwe, once the breadbasket of southern Africa, is experiencing its worst economic crisis in a decade, marked by soaring inflation and shortages of food, fuel, medicines and electricity.

"This hunger crisis is on a scale we've not seen before and the evidence shows it's going to get worse," the WFP's Regional Director for Southern Africa, Lola Castro, said in a statement.

"The annual cyclone season has begun and we simply cannot afford a repeat of the devastation caused by last year's unprecedented storms."



In December, the United Nations said it was procuring food assistance for 4.1 million Zimbabweans, a quarter of the population of a country where shortages are being exacerbated by runaway inflation and climate-induced drought.

"Zimbabwe is in the throes of its worst hunger emergency in a decade, with 7.7 million people – half the population – seriously food insecure," the agency said.

In Zambia and drought-stricken Lesotho, 20% of the population faces a food crisis, as do 10% of Namibians.
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Thu 16 Jan 2020, 12:23:44

Azothius wrote:Record 45 million people across Southern Africa face hunger: U.N. food agency
https://www.yahoo.com/news/record-45-million-people-across-122151373.html



JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - The United Nations World Food Programme said on Thursday that a record 45 million people in the 16-nation Southern African Development Community faced growing hunger following repeated drought, widespread flooding and economic disarray.

Southern Africa is in the grips of a severe drought, as climate change wreaks havoc in impoverished countries already struggling to cope with extreme natural disasters, such as Cyclone Idai which devastated Mozambique, Zimbabwe and Malawi in 2019.

Zimbabwe, once the breadbasket of southern Africa, is experiencing its worst economic crisis in a decade, marked by soaring inflation and shortages of food, fuel, medicines and electricity.

"This hunger crisis is on a scale we've not seen before and the evidence shows it's going to get worse," the WFP's Regional Director for Southern Africa, Lola Castro, said in a statement.

"The annual cyclone season has begun and we simply cannot afford a repeat of the devastation caused by last year's unprecedented storms."



In December, the United Nations said it was procuring food assistance for 4.1 million Zimbabweans, a quarter of the population of a country where shortages are being exacerbated by runaway inflation and climate-induced drought.

"Zimbabwe is in the throes of its worst hunger emergency in a decade, with 7.7 million people – half the population – seriously food insecure," the agency said.

In Zambia and drought-stricken Lesotho, 20% of the population faces a food crisis, as do 10% of Namibians.

That is mainly because they are exterminating white farmers in South Africa Republic (as they already did in Zimbabwe) and yet they are too stupid to run business themselves.
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 23 Jan 2020, 05:04:16

Global atmospheric angular momentum has gone net U positive for the first time in the record.

https://atlas.niu.edu/gwo/

https://twitter.com/gensiniwx/status/12 ... 8897850368

Not sure what effect this might have on crop production. But it's...interesting (or would be merely interesting if it were happening on Mars...)
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby Azothius » Wed 26 Feb 2020, 10:58:07

A plague of locusts has descended on East Africa. Climate change may be to blame.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/scie ... st-africa/

Human activity has made an ocean circulation pattern misbehave—triggering a weird confluence of events that has caused the infestations.


The insects behind the mayhem are desert locusts, which, despite their name, thrive following periods of heavy rainfall that trigger blooms of vegetation across their normally arid habitats in Africa and the Middle East. Experts say a prolonged bout of exceptionally wet weather, including several rare cyclones that struck eastern Africa and the Arabian Peninsula over the last 18 months, are the primary culprit. The recent storminess, in turn, is related to the the Indian Ocean Dipole, an ocean temperature gradient that was recently extremely pronounced, something that’s also been linked to the devastating bushfires in eastern Australia.


Recent research suggests this pattern could become more common in a warming world. A 2014 paper led by Cai found that under a worst-case carbon emissions scenario, the frequency of extremely positive Indian Ocean Dipole events could increase nearly threefold by the end of the century. In a follow up study in 2018, researchers found that if the planet warms just 1.5 degrees—a target the world could pass within the next decade—extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole phases could still double. According to Cai, there’s already evidence of the Indian Ocean Dipole trending more positively overall.

Whether that will lead to more plagues of locusts is an open question, but it’s a worrying possibility. Ocean circulation patterns aside, climate change is warming the oceans everywhere, which is expected to trigger more intense downpours. In the Arabian Sea, recent research suggests global warming is already making fall cyclones more intense. At the same time, other research has tied climate change to worsening droughts and failing rains across East Africa, painting a picture of an uncertain future, but one that’s almost certainly more dangerous.

While scientists continue to explore where East Africa’s climate is headed, aid organizations are scrambling to prevent the locust crisis from getting worse. Last month, the FAO called on the international community to pony up $76 million for pest control operations and to protect farmers and pastoralists in five countries afflicted by locusts. Cressman is hopeful the money will come, but he’s concerned about the timing. As the insects continue to multiply, the need for aid could rise considerably, especially if more aggressive control measures aren’t implemented soon.



Desert Locust situation update 24 February 2020
http://www.fao.org/ag/locusts/en/info/info/index.html

Swarms invade the Persian Gulf and continue to breed in the Horn of Africa

The situation remains extremely alarming in the Horn of Africa, specifically Kenya, Ethiopia and Somalia where widespread breeding is in progress and new swarms are expected to form in the coming weeks. In the past few days, there has been a significant movement of swarms over the Arabian Peninsula, unrelated to the Horn of Africa, that reached both sides of the Persian Gulf.

Kenya. Swarms continue to be reported in northern and central areas where they are mostly mature and have laid eggs. Hatching is causing an increasing number of hopper bands to form with new swarm formation expected in the coming weeks. Mature swarms are also present along the shores of Lake Turkana. Aerial and ground control operations continue.

Ethiopia. The situation is similar to Kenya with widespread swarms, breeding and hatching in Somali, Oromiya and SNNPR regions, including the Rift Valley. Movements further north can be expected as well as from adjacent areas of Somalia and Kenya.

Somalia. Breeding continues in the northeast where new immature swarms are expected to form in about one week or so.

Uganda. A mature swarm arrived in the northeast from adjacent areas of western Kenya on 24 February.

South Sudan. Only remnants of an earlier mature swarm have been seen in the southeastern county of Magwi. A second mature swarm was seen near the border on 23 February.

Tanzania. No new reports of swarms.

DRC (Democratic Republic of the Congo). A small group of mature Desert Locust arrived on the western shore of Lake Albert near Bunia on 21 February after crossing northern Uganda on strong northeasterly winds. The country last received Desert Locust in 1944.

Saudi Arabia. Ground control operations increased against hopper bands on the Red Sea coast and immature groups and swarms in the interior.

Yemen. Another generation of breeding is in progress on the Red Sea coast where hatching and early instar hopper bands are forming. Immature and mature swarms were reported in the interior during this past week. Surveys remain limited and control could not be carried out.

Persian Gulf. During several days of strong winds, dense immature swarms arrived in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and along the southwest coast of Iran between Bushehr and Kish Island on 20-21 February. More swarms are likely during periods of southerly winds. Control operations were immediately mounted in Iran



Locust invasion devastates crops as Pakistan suffers worst infestation in two decades
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lvOu7us3lpQ
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early indications point to a near-record wheat production in

Unread postby jawagord » Mon 09 Mar 2020, 16:50:26

Oh dear, good thing we have the coronavirus to worry about, looks like another good to record year for cereal grains.

Amid generally well supplied cereal markets, early indications point to a near-record wheat production in 2020.

Global cereal markets in 2019/20 are expected to remain well supplied, comfortably covering the forecast growth in consumption.

FAO’s 2019 world cereal production estimate is currently pegged at 2 719 million tonnes, almost 62 million tonnes (2.3 percent) above production in 2018 and 4.7 million tonnes higher than reported in February. The estimate of global production of coarse grains has been raised by 5 million tonnes to 1 444 million tonnes since the previous report in February, up by 2.4 percent from 2018.


http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/csdb/en/
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby Azothius » Tue 10 Mar 2020, 10:06:59

Extreme Weather Events Expose Vulnerability of Crops Globally

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/extr ... 00030.html

Compare the article that Jawa links to this one, which provides quite a list of regions with (supposedly) impaired growing seasons coming up.

Will be interesting to see which proves more accurate.
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 29 Apr 2020, 12:08:30

Turns out letting “efficient” monopolies control our food supply was a terrible idea.



“If you pull out one little thing in that specialized, centralized, consolidated chain, then everything crashes,” said Mary Hendrickson, a rural sociology professor at University of Missouri. “Now we have an animal welfare catastrophe, an environmental catastrophe, a farmer catastrophe, and a worker catastrophe altogether, and we can trace a lot of this back to the pursuit of efficiency.”


Link >> https://washingtonmonthly.com/2020/04/2 ... are-empty/
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby REAL Green » Wed 29 Apr 2020, 13:16:40

Let's hope there will be an effort to diversify the consolidation:

“Tyson Foods Helped Create the Meat Crisis It Warns Against”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... nd=premium

While Tyson pointed out that the pandemic has affected businesses of all sizes, the producers, which also include Smithfield Foods Inc., have such a stranglehold on output that it leaves the supply chain with few remedies when even just a handful plants are down. There have been about 12 closures at U.S. slaughter plants this month because of coronavirus outbreaks among employees who are jammed together on processing lines. That’s wiped out roughly 25% of pork-processing capacity and 10% for beef -- enough for analysts to say that the country was weeks away from shortfalls. Meat prices are already surging. “This is 100% a symptom of consolidation,” said Christopher Leonard, author of “The Meat Racket,” which examines the protein industry. “We don’t have a crisis of supply right now. We have a crisis in processing. And the virus is exposing the profound fragility that comes with this kind of consolidation…Two U.S. senators are asking the Federal Trade Commission to investigate consolidation in American meatpacking and processing for any anticompetitive behavior resulting from concentration. Senators Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin and Josh Hawley of Missouri said that the high concentration has “undermined the stability of America’s meat supply and become an issue of national security,” according to a copy of the letter sent to the FTC on Wednesday and seen by Bloomberg. There’s a reason meat is so cheap in America compared with the rest of the world. A big part of that is the rapid consolidation that’s allowed meatpackers to operate on huge economies of scale and run lines at lightning speeds that continue to increase. The number of slaughtering plants has plummeted about 70% since 1967, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. A huge chunk of that consolidation came in just the past few decades. In a 2019 report, Tyson lists an acquisition or a consolidation for almost every year of operation starting from 2001, though some of those deals were in packaged food and sometimes made outside the U.S. In Europe, it’s a different story. The top 15 companies account for less than a third of the European Union’s meat production, and the region has seen far fewer disruptions to supply.”
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby careinke » Fri 08 May 2020, 04:21:42

I'm not sure if this is the correct place to put this because a lot of it relates to the "sickness" as my 5 year old granddaughter calls it. Anyway here is an email we got from our cousins who have recently taken over sharecropping our wheatland in eastern oregon. FYI we don't irrigate. Mods feel free to move.

Good Morning:



I truly hope this email find you and your family well. So far so good on our end health-wise, except there have been a few articles this past week about COVID cases in Umatilla County spiking. Hopefully that will reverse soon and things will open back up. Fingers crossed.

Anyway, on to farming. The good news is you all had the best stand of wheat I have ever seen – seriously. I have never been so excited about cutting a crop as I was coming into this spring. However, it has decided that it does NOT want to rain here yet and we have experience very near record low rain fall amounts in both March and April. At the ranch here, we are behind nearly 4” of rainfall year to date = about 25% of the annual rain fall. In addition on the 13th of April we received one of the hardest frosts we have had in April – it got down to 17 degrees here and stayed below 20 for over 7 hours. That is very hard on the wheat and inflicts significant damage in the low areas and draws. Needless to say, the wheat it starting to show stress. There is still a chance to cut an average crop…..if it were to starting raining. However, the long-range forecast is not looking accommodating. I attached the 50 year monthly weather history for the Pendleton Airport. The airport gets 3-4 less inches of rain per year that we do here, but it provides a good look. So, what is the downside? Thanks goodness for crop insurance. As you know, we budget 90 bushels per acre. Crop insurance does not allow you to cover 100% of your budget or historical production, but close. You can purchase as high as 85%, but it is very expensive and additional coverage is barely above the additional premium costs. Furthermore, we have really focused on yield the past few years and have raised the average historical yield by nearly 10 bushels per acre. This has really helped in increasing the insurance coverage. So, we use/buy 80% coverage which gives us all a floor or worst case scenario of about 75 bushels per acre. I will keep you posted as we get closer to harvest, but I wanted to give you a heads up we will not be able to send you a yield report that is record breaking this year – a huge bummer, because we had a real chance to do so.



With regard to the wheat market – it is holding in there around the $5.25 level. While it is below costs of production for us (at budgeted yields), it is performing better than most of the other agricultural commodities. Thank goodness most of the wheat is exported and people are buying ramen noodles right now – that is much needed support for the soft white wheat market. Fuel and fertilizer prices have gone down, which is helping also. I have been following the disaster programs very closely. USDA has announced there is money available for crops that have lost over 5% of their value (which wheat has), but they have not given any detail on what or how that money will be paid out. I will keep you posted on this as well. It will be very welcome (a polite way of saying very much neededJ) this year for all of us, given the dry year and the market disruption.



With regard to the ag markets overall, it is truly a disaster. Corn, soybeans, and the animal protein markets are really getting hit hard. Milk prices have dropped from $0.18/pound to $0.11 since January. Many of the dairies are having to dump milk. This causes dairy farmers to take their worst cows out of production and cull them to the meat market. This puts pressure on the meat market and means there are less animals that need feed. Less feed demand means lower feed prices = lower hay and corn prices. As you can see, it is a tough cycle – the primary commodities get into a downward spiral. Vegetables and other markets are suffering just as bad if not worse. My day-job centers around the potato and onion business. With restaurant’s closed, food service suppliers and getting crushed. There are literally hundreds of thousands of tons of potatoes and onions being dumped, fed, or spread back out on the fields in the Northwest right now. Many of the processing plants are idled back and some are even shut down with virus outbreaks. We have a partner who is a vegetable grower in the Imperial and Salinas Valleys of California – they are having to disk down fresh vegetables and cut back plantings from lack of demand. Applebee’s and Subway are two the chains I work with and have been great customers over the years. Applebee’s has reported to us that their sales volumes are off 90% and Subway has told us they have closed 5,000 stores (as a reference, they had 32,000 stores in North America at their peak). Hard to get your head around on what to plant to, how to staff, and overall keep a smile on your face – but, as they say, it can always be worse. Not meaning to be a downer, but a few of you have asked for updates on bigger picture items and there are very few “high-fives” out there right now. However, frozen vegetables and wheat seem to be holding in there ok relative to the broader market – which is solid for you/us as that is what the Helix/Walla Walla ground can produce.



In summary, I am sorry to have to report the dry year and likely resulting poor crop. However, we do have a floor to the downside with the insurance and I think there may be other mitigation to come. I have been working closely with grower groups, agencies, elected officials (both state and federal), and anyone else I can think of that may have programs. Perspective is also important and we keep the small business owners & employees in the restaurant and hospitality businesses in our thoughts as they aren’t even able to open their doors.



Again, I hope you and your family are well. We were planning to make trips to see you all this spring, but will rain check for post COVID-times.



Best Regards,

XXXXX
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby REAL Green » Fri 08 May 2020, 05:29:59

My market for breeding stock goats is lower with less calls. My cattle do not sell until October so I will wait and see on that. I have a partnership with my neighbor where essentially, I am raising his genetics for his herd replacement animals. The steers he sells after he puts more weight on them. So, I originally bought his cows and use his genetics. He brings his bull over to breed them and when he returns in October, after I have raised these calves, he picks up his bull and buys my calves. This allows me to focus on goats.

I am glad I am not doing this to make money. I do it for pasture management and a food bank in case SHTF. I try to cover my cost but becuase I keep stocking rates low for permaculture reasons I just cover costs. Part of this is also I have built up my operation doing things right with quality equipment. I am in this for the long haul. I love this way of life so that is a reward in itself. I am growing both herds slightly becuase I am forecasting food shortages from the current virus volatility. Animals are being culled and marginal operators exiting the business becuase of the volatility.

My operation could triple with goats and quadruple with cattle because I have the infrastructure in place. If there is a real food crisis, I will grow in size to do my part. Up until now since I did not need the money this activity was focused on permaculture of small stocking rates accommodating nature into the equation. The wild critters love my grazing system because I leave food and cover for them. In fact, fields that have light grazing are better than fields left to over grow. Grazing was once part of the natural ecosystem. Too little is as bad as too much. I am a green prepper so food is part of the effort too.
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby sparky » Fri 08 May 2020, 18:27:14

.
@ Newfie
"I’ve been looking for a concise source of data that shows stats for world grain imports and exports. Rice, wheat, corn, soybean."

the authoritative data set on farm production , the weekly weather and crop report
from page 22 the state of the world crop is mentioned


https://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/pubs/W ... b/wwcb.pdf
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 08 May 2020, 18:56:21

Carinke,

Thanks for that post. We have friends who are small herd dairy farmers in PA. Those milk prices will crush them.

I just got off the phone with a friend who witnessed 40,000 pounds of seed potatoes being wasted.

If I read your article correctly it sounds like some farmers won’t have cash to plant the next crops. Which would explain wasting seed potatoes.

With all this food being wasted who is not being fed? Was it all for overseas shipment? I mean even if Applebee’s and Wendy’s don’t buy still someone eats. So how can the system tolerate this wasteage without someone’s starving? Will we not meet export demand?

So many questions.
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 08 May 2020, 19:18:11

Newfie wrote:even if Applebee’s and Wendy’s don’t buy still someone eats.


My thoughts exactly. What I'm thinking is there is already huge waste baked into the food system such that when people shift to eating at home less agricultural products are needed. I already know that a ton of the food that gets produced never goes in anybody's stomach in the end but this may be concrete evidence of such. It does, however, show how much of a carrying capacity buffer exists. Food shortages in the short term are really going to be more due to mismanagement and other above-ground issues.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 08 May 2020, 19:29:41

ASG,

It’s a thought, but not a proven conclusion. Maybe correct and maybe something else going on.

With the restaurants at 90% shutdown that would mean almost 100% of the food going to the restaurants was wasted. That can not be the whole answer, something else is going on.
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 08 May 2020, 23:37:03

My thoughts exactly. What I'm thinking is there is already huge waste baked into the food system such that when people shift to eating at home less agricultural products are needed. I already know that a ton of the food that gets produced never goes in anybody's stomach in the end but this may be concrete evidence of such. It does, however, show how much of a carrying capacity buffer exists. Food shortages in the short term are really going to be more due to mismanagement and other above-ground issues.


the problem isn't about need or demand. People still need to eat. The issue is the restaurants are no longer the consumer of food products and the supply chain was set up such that the vast majority of its food went to restaurants not to stores or markets. With Covid shutting down a lot of the various parts of the supply chain it ends up being broken. The food manufacturers still have product that normally they would supply to both markets and restaurants but now everyone is at home and the food needed by markets is much higher and the food needed by restaurants is almost nil. These supply chains apparently have contracted over the years to be more efficient but as a result, they can't just push a button and change how they deliver food. As a consequence there is a bunch of produce (as an example) that should go to restaurants that end up being tossed out and although the markets are getting what they always got because everyone is at home the demand is that much higher. With the meat plants shutting down because of Covid you would think it would create way worse problem than it has so far. The reason it hasn't is that much of the demand for those products and the supply chain were to send various meat products to restaurants. My own observation is the stores are doing OK and I live in a province where 3 major meat plants were shut down. The situation is a bit more complex than folks imagine I guess.
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby REAL Green » Sat 09 May 2020, 07:27:17

Eating out needed a cleanup. Supply chains are going to adapt and this will be messy. Back in 03 I had a bar and restaurant and I can tell you that it does not pay. You need to be a corporate chain to make it and now even that will be reshaped. There are too many of these eat places just like with retail. Food delivery is changing. So much is now online too. This virus shock is a great time to clean this mess up that was developing over decades. Have you seen the prices for a meal anymore and many restaurants are not making it? WTF! I can walk in a restaurant and tell you if they will make it. It is all about volume of the small margin, simple really. Fast food cost is outrageous anymore too and that used to be the cheap food. Food delivered via many restaurants and almost all fast food is medically bad. This does not mean eating at home will improve that much but having an economy based on a food delivery system that sends you to the ER with chest pains is probably a good thing to reduce.

I was also farming back in 1999 for a few years. This was another trial by fire by high volume of small margins with rising overhead costs. I see a big hit coming to food productivity from these disruptions. This was happening before the virus too with economics and weather issues. Trade wars have created havoc. This points to something that I always found amusing and that is when these pseudo scientist in the economics field talk about a 50% growth in food supplies to support population growth and increasing wealth. That is now over. The same is said about water and energy.

I have been talking peak globalism now for years. I have described it as an undulating plateau of growth and decline up until now. Much of the last decade of growth is bad debt so you can’t call that real growth. Now I will call peak food. Peak water is there too. Probably peak oil (demand) hitting supply is here. We are living in amazing times and I have coined this as the great shift from growth to decline. What do I know I am just a nutter doomer? LOL. This inflection will be minor but don't think it will not be painful. The problem is expectations along with population growth will cause some serious hurt feelings as people become poorer. Countries are going to fail. Segments and sectors will be haphazardly rationalized into something else in a quick searing over the flames but also a crawfish boil. Food is central to this growth ceiling. The rationalization of the restaurant part of the food chain that is global will be huge. It will not be made up and this will mean food like oil will have peaked from huge global demand shock. Population peak is ahead once this reality turns into results.
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 09 May 2020, 08:44:19

REAL Green wrote: Up until now since I did not need the money this activity was focused on permaculture of small stocking rates accommodating nature into the equation. The wild critters love my grazing system because I leave food and cover for them. In fact, fields that have light grazing are better than fields left to over grow. Grazing was once part of the natural ecosystem. Too little is as bad as too much. I am a green prepper so food is part of the effort too.

Do you find a hard grazing with the goats every so often helps trim back the weed species that the cattle pass by?
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby Ibon » Sat 09 May 2020, 09:04:31

vtsnowedin wrote:
REAL Green wrote: Up until now since I did not need the money this activity was focused on permaculture of small stocking rates accommodating nature into the equation. The wild critters love my grazing system because I leave food and cover for them. In fact, fields that have light grazing are better than fields left to over grow. Grazing was once part of the natural ecosystem. Too little is as bad as too much. I am a green prepper so food is part of the effort too.

Do you find a hard grazing with the goats every so often helps trim back the weed species that the cattle pass by?


I know a Colombian organic coffee farmer who grazes goats in his coffee plantation for weed control and their droppings fertilize his plantation. Apparently goats don't eat coffee leaves which is surprising since I thought goats eat everything including newspaper!

I considered grazing a few goats here on our coffee plantation but after talking to the locals I decided against it. Every attempt to raise sheep and goats in this valley failed because of Mountain Lions and Jaguars. Goats and sheep are the perfect prey size for these big cats and the game camera we have on the trail near our coffee plantation has documented both cats.

Weather here has changed since 40 years talking to the old timers. A bit warmer but mostly a disruption in the rain / dry season cycle. Dryer with later onset of the rainy season. We are now well into May and we still have not had the first monsoon down pour. Our coffee all flowered 15 days ago and we are anxiously awaiting the first big rain for a good fruit set. We have 2500 seedlings ready in bags as well to be planted in the grove and we wait the rains.
Patiently awaiting the pathogens. Our resiliency resembles an invasive weed. We are the Kudzu Ape
blog: http://blog.mounttotumas.com/
website: http://www.mounttotumas.com
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