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Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 02 Nov 2019, 08:26:19

Maybe I’m just googling the wrong search phrases otherwise one has to wonder why such fundamental information is so hard to come by.
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby GHung » Sat 02 Nov 2019, 09:27:54

Newfie wrote:
GHung wrote:https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/grain.pdf


I had seen that but it is not a useful data set. I want to see who is exporting soybeans and who is importing soybeans. I don’t much care how mAny soybeans you eat, yet. I’m interested in who the traders are.


US soybean exports by country:

https://www.nopa.org/resources/datafact ... n-exports/

https://oec.world/en/profile/hs92/1201/


Top soybean exporters:

http://www.worldstopexports.com/soya-be ... s-country/

The listed 15 countries shipped 99.2% of global soya beans exports in 2018 by value.

Among the top exporters, the fastest-growing soya beans exporters since 2014 were: Russia (up 1,132%), France (up 243.7%), Romania (up 111.1%) and Germany (up 77.8%).

Those countries that posted declines in their exported soya beans sales were led by: Uruguay (down -67%), Argentina (down -63.3%), China (down -49.8%), Netherlands (down -34.2%) and United States (down -28.2%).


https://oec.world/en/profile/hs92/1201/
Soybeans are the 44th most traded product and the 978th most complex product according to the Product Complexity Index (PCI).

The top exporters of Soybeans are Brazil ($25.9B), the United States ($22B), Argentina ($2.82B), Paraguay ($2.19B) and Canada ($1.91B). The top importers are China ($36.6B), Mexico ($1.72B), the Netherlands ($1.6B), Japan ($1.41B) and Spain ($1.31B).

Soybeans are the top export of Brazil and Paraguay.

Soybeans are also known as soya, soy beans.
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby Nefarious » Sat 02 Nov 2019, 10:22:56

https://www.world-grain.com/articles/12 ... rom-brazil


SÃO PAULO, BRAZIL — Brazil exported 60,000 tonnes of corn to the United States, according to Refinitiv data. The shipment is rare since the United States is the world’s largest corn producer and currently exports between 10% to 20% of its annual production, according to a U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Economic Research Service (ERS) report.


Another shipment transporting 52,400 tonnes of corn is expected to arrive in the United States on Oct. 17, Reuters said.

So that's a total of 112,400 tons of corn shipped to the worlds largest corn producer.
Oh yeah we are doing real well.
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby Nefarious » Sat 02 Nov 2019, 11:12:14

asg70 wrote:
jedrider wrote:USDA SAYS IT'S ALL OVER | Grain Growth Season Halted Early/Mid October
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k9V8Vkh2Wfw


That right-wing hick is a good example of the problem with the US. People in flyover country are the most denialist even though they're ground zero for global warming impacts. Now instead of pure denial we have "it's happening and it's apocalyptic but....it's not our fault so no guilty conscience."


He isn't a denalist. He believes the chaotic weather changes are due to the grand solar minimum,based on historical records on how the weather and climate behaved in past grand minimums and it is apocalyptic and no he shouldn't feel guilty about it.
We shouldn't have to wait long to find out if grand solar minimalist are right by 2025 to 2030 we should be deep into the minimum, That's when things would really be bad.
We are going to find out one way or the other.
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 03 Nov 2019, 07:46:01

From our own front page.

https://www.fastcompany.com/90422553/th ... d-boggling

Interesting but has some serious problems. It notes some place in NY State with a lot of transit due to international shipping to Canada. It talks a lot about inflow and out flow in California counties but does not distinguish what are international import/export driven. It shows movement but not direction. Etc.
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby sparky » Tue 12 Nov 2019, 20:11:54

https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde1119.pdf

not a good year but neither is it bad , there is the production number by the biggest producers
in page 18/19 for wheat ,then coarse grain soy , corn and rice
the food price in real term is identical to what it was 50 years ago , so no drama

For the interested few , the critical number is the "end of year" stock ,
it's the margin of safety for people in poor countries suffering famine and people in rich countries being inconvenienced

for those interested in weather and crops , the weekly weather and crop report is the authoritative data for all the world food traders
https://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/pubs/W ... b/wwcb.pdf

Anything else is just net gazing Piffle
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby Azothius » Wed 13 Nov 2019, 09:39:06

Corn harvest still significantly lagging behind average

https://www.agriculture.com/news/crops/ ... -usda-says
CORN
In its weekly Crop Progress Report, the USDA pegged the U.S. corn harvest at 66% complete, below a five-year average of 85%,

SOYBEANS
The amount of soybeans cut totaled 85%, below a 92% five-year average.



================
Crop production projections:

https://www.farmforum.net/farm_forum/us ... 6afa3.html

The latest USDA Report estimated the total U.S. corn production for 2019 at 13.66 billion bushels, which is below the production levels of 14.42 billion bushels in 2018, 14.6 billion bushels in 2017, and the 2016 record U.S. corn production of 15.15 billion bushels. The projected 2019 corn production would be similar to the production level of 13.6 billion bushels in 2015..... The projected 2019 U.S. harvested corn acreage is 81.8 million acres, which is very similar to the 81.7 million acres that were harvested last year.


The USDA Report estimated 2019 U.S. soybean production at 3.55 billion bushels, which is down significantly from over 4.4 billion bushels in both 2018 and 2017, as well as 4.3 billion bushels in 2016.... The 2019 harvested soybean acreage is projected at 75.6 million acres, which is down from 87.6 million acres in 2018.




==================
Localized crop failures/disasters:


Officials Are Using The Word “Disaster” To Describe The Widespread Crop Failures Happening All Over America

https://www.sott.net/article/423731-Off ... er-America

#1 North Dakota: “Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue has approved North Dakota’s request for a Secretarial disaster designation for 47 counties related to late season rainfall and the October snowstorm. The declaration came on Friday, Nov. 8, the same day that Sen. John Hoeven, R-N.D., hosted Bill Northey, U.S. Department of Agriculture’s under secretary for farm production and conservation, to hear from producers at a roundtable and see the impacts of flooding and the early blizzard during a field tour in the Red River Valley.”

#2 Northwest Minnesota: “Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz asked the U.S. agriculture secretary on Thursday to declare a disaster for 12 counties of northwestern Minnesota where farmers are struggling through a very difficult harvest season. The governor said in a letter to Secretary Sonny Perdue that unrelenting bad weather has come on top of challenges farmers were already facing from low commodity prices and trade uncertainties. He told Purdue how the region’s crops have fallen victim to flooding, disease and freezing temperatures, leaving many producers unable to harvest them.”

#3 Iowa: “Last week, according to the Iowa weekly growing season report for the week ending Nov. 3, Iowa’s average temperature was 33 degrees, 12.6 degrees below normal, and with the southerly dip in the jet stream came multiple fast-moving winter-type systems through Iowa during the week, bringing a statewide average of 2.4 inches of snow. Mason City farmer Kevin Pope said with the early snow, all harvest has been halted.”

#4 Ohio: Three local counties are among the 14 in Ohio that the United States Department of Agriculture said are primary natural disaster areas. Champaign, Clark and Miami counties were added to a growing list of designated primary natural disaster areas, which means farmers in those counties can apply for disaster loans. Farmers are eligible only if they suffered a 30% loss in crop production or a physical loss of livestock, livestock products and real estate.

#5 The Red River Valley: “Near Grand Forks, Minnesota, successive nights of subfreezing temperatures from late October into early November caused an estimated $45 million in damage to around 9,000 acres of red and yellow potato crops in the Red River Valley. Wet conditions in October delayed the potato harvest that usually occurs around Oct. 1. This left about half of the red and yellow crops, which are grown for the fresh market, vulnerable to frost damage. This is what Ted Kreis, spokesman for the Northern Plains Potato Growers Association, told Fresh Plaza on Nov. 4.”

#6 Illinois: “Pritzker filed an appeal of the agency’s denial last week, saying the federal government is withholding assistance from 1.4 million Illinois residents affected by the flooding, which the Illinois Emergency Management Agency determined was the state’s worst in more than 25 years. The conditions caused delays for farmers planting spring crops, including corn and soybean, and prompted the U.S. Department of Agriculture to declare an agriculture disaster in the state in August.”

#7 Colorado: “There is no doubt that extreme weather has greatly impacted agricultural producers over the last several years, and 2019 is no exception,” said Clarice Navarro, executive director for Farm Service Agency in Colorado. “With record amounts of crops prevented from planting nationwide and other devastation, more than $3 billion is available through this disaster relief package passed by Congress and signed by President Trump in early June.”

#8 Kentucky: “The federal government has approved Kentucky’s request for a disaster declaration for counties in which farmers’ crops were negatively affected by this summer’s drought. In an Oct. 16 letter to Brian Lacefield, the state executive director of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Farm Service Agency, Kentucky Agriculture Commissioner Ryan Quarles asks that the federal agency consider a disaster declaration for Kentucky counties that “have suffered losses due to the extreme heat and drought.”

#9 South Carolina: “U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue recently designated six counties in South Carolina as natural disaster areas due to drought. They are: Bamberg, Calhoun, Kershaw, Lexington, Orangeburg and Richland.”

#10 Birch Hills County: “Birch Hills County has joined the County of Grande Prairie and Saddle Hills County in declaring an agriculture disaster. In a release, they say some farmers still have up to 50 percent of this year’s crop that is unharvested, while Hay crops in Birch Hills were harvested late, with some not able to be taken off the ground at all.”

#11 Crookston, Minnesota: “Sugar beet and potato farmers whose crops have been hard hit by excessive moisture this harvest converged on Crookston Tuesday, Nov. 5, to tell U.S. Rep. Collin Peterson about their unprecedented crop losses.”

#12 Idaho: There was sadness and dismay in eastern Idaho’s potato community this weekend as the 2019 harvest wound down and growers began tallying up their losses from October’s disastrous freeze while pondering what to do with the tons of unusable tubers it left behind. This season’s harvest will be marked by tons of decaying potatoes for which there is no home.


======================
harvest progress charts for many crops

USDA 2019 Crop Progress and Conditions, as of Nov 10th:

https://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Ma ... S_2019.pdf
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 13 Nov 2019, 09:46:43

Interesting, thanks.
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby Azothius » Tue 19 Nov 2019, 12:45:31

Food prices set to rise in UK as floods ruin crops
Soaring prices likely as potatoes rot in sodden fields and farmers struggle to sow wheat
https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... ruin-crops

“The rain started on the 23 September in Lincolnshire and in the last six weeks we have had more than six months of rainfall,” he said. “Soil is like a sponge – it soaks up water until it’s full. We have reached that stage where the water is just sitting on top.
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby Azothius » Wed 11 Dec 2019, 10:54:45

Extreme Weather Patterns Killing Vital Crops Across the Globe

https://weather.com/science/environment ... quent=true

New research pushed in the journal Nature Climate Change found that extreme weather patterns brought by polar jet streams, such as heat waves and drought, are increasing the risk of simultaneous harvest failures of vital crops across the globe.


"the risk of simultaneous heat waves has increased 20 times..."

no mention of flooding...
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby careinke » Thu 12 Dec 2019, 02:42:19

We had a record harvest of winter wheat, on our property, this year in eastern Oregon. The wheat is growing without irrigation. Unfortunately we made less this year due to lower prices.
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 12 Dec 2019, 16:27:47

Bad year for crops here (Minnesota)--too wet. Beets rotted in the ground.
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 12 Dec 2019, 17:40:32

When Dr. Guy McPherson visited the University of Alaska earlier this year, I asked him specifically what exactly he believes will lead to societal collapse and then human extinction in the next 20 years or so. McPherson said crop yields would drop and agriculture would fail, and he thought it would happen as soon as the Arctic sea ice goes and the climate goes through another shift to warmer and weirder conditions.

God damn if it doesn't seem like Guy might be right.

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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby Azothius » Sun 15 Dec 2019, 04:19:59

That is my belief. Once the arctic ice cap melts below a minimum critical threshold, the stable climate we once knew is now long gone, and we transition from our current climate instability to climate chaos, and we are no longer able to raise sufficient food crops, then civilization collapses and there is a mass die-off.

Though, I do not believe that it leads to human extinction so quickly. Those in less developed countries, living in less affected latitudes, who know how to conduct subsistence farming would survive. Also those in northern latitudes, who know how to hunt, trap, fish, and forage could maintain a "tribal" existence, so long as there is some remnant of a "growing season". Until the planet shifts from climate chaos to the increasingly dire effects of runaway global warming. Then, of course....

Yes, I am saying nothing new.
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 15 Dec 2019, 09:12:53

In the future, food shocks are likely to get much worse. The risk of multi-breadbasket failure is increasing, and rises much faster beyond 1.5c of global heating – a threshold we could hit as early as 2030 should emissions continue unchecked.

"Such shocks pose grave threats – rocketing food prices, civil unrest, major financial losses, starvation and death.”



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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 15 Dec 2019, 11:06:32

Though, I do not believe that it leads to human extinction so quickly.


Humanity has lived, and flourished through 10 ice ages. Number 11 is not likely to bring about the final nail in the coffin. Humans are harder to kill off than coach roaches. The most likely cause for human extinction is humans. Our obsession with technology will turn us into something that is not quite human. One tour through social media gives numerous examples of the one eye, one horned flying purple people eaters that are taking over. If that doesn't convince you, spend an hour at WalMart! In a few generations, what was once humanity, will have evolved into a blob in a power chair.
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby Sweeney » Sun 15 Dec 2019, 11:09:28

Regarding the figures given above for soya beans, I don't think they are grown at all in the Netherlands, it's not warm enough, so they are not really a producer. They import soya beans and then export them again. Perhaps that applies to some of the other countries mentioned.
I live in France and I'm not aware of ever having seen a field of soya beans. They may be grown here, but I don't think that they are a major crop.
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 15 Dec 2019, 12:01:33

Regarding the figures given above for soya beans, I don't think they are grown at all in the Netherlands, it's not warm enough, so they are not really a producer.


It is not a matter of temperature, it is a matter of land availability. Here in Eastern Virginia, with its wide expanses of once rich, flat ground, one farmer with a combine can grow thousands of acres of beans. What once was soybeans is now planted in wheat and corn. The farmers would happily grow beans if the Chinese had any pigs left to eat them.
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 15 Dec 2019, 13:58:45

I can’t find good food export/import data. Strikes me that some countries import and then reshoot and claim it as an export.
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby Fredrik » Mon 16 Dec 2019, 13:52:00

Central Europe currently has average summer temperatures of about 24 degrees (celsius). Theoretical maximum growing temperatures are about 32 C for wheat, 35 C for corn and 38 C for rice.

(I know the warming doesn't happen slowly and uniformly but comes with prolonged heatwaves and droughts, and rice requires a large amount of precipitation - which is assumed to increase in the higher latitudes however.)

In any case, there is still some margin left for agriculture in the temperate zone, but not enough to feed the whole world. I made a back-of-the-envelope calculation which indicated that with current production, and a major transition from meat to a cereal/vegetable diet, Canada could feed all of North America and most of Central/Eastern Europe would be sufficient for Europe, Russia and some of the Middle East. India and China would see drastic reductions in population and possibly cease to exist as nations.

If massive crop losses become an almost yearly event, many wealthier producing countries will be tempted to try geoengineering, most likely with airborne release of sunlight-blocking particles. But this would create major problems of its own.
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