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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 30 Oct 2019, 16:05:32

Good analysis. It does look like they are losing control fast. Debts and deficits are exploding. Their printing presses will be running 24/7. That’s why I went all in on gold and silver last year. I saw this coming. Hell, Ray Charles could see it coming. We aren’t there yet. They can possibly keep it floating until the election. 1.75 percentage points to work with and massive QE.


$120 billion a day in repo, $60 billion in Not QE, quarter point cut today, and the S%P is up 0.33%. It looks like their ammo is past its "good until date". If they can keep this floating until the electrons I want to see the picture of Trump kissing Powell's butt.

The Market is now run by machines, the humans are used as doorstops for the computer room. The FED has long since had a copy of every one of those programs. They know exactly which buttons to push to produce an organismicly delirious machine. It is very possible that the collapse will happen at the peak of the market. The next depression will not be televised.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Cog » Wed 30 Oct 2019, 19:56:40

In before part 11 of this failed prediction train.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 31 Oct 2019, 03:45:10

Armageddon wrote:Market crash? I’ve been saying the markets are going to continue to rise due to the massive stimulus they are injecting.


Ok. Here are some specific examples from searching your posts on this site, and perusing the results. Direct quotes including all caps, etc by you. (Disclosure: SInce you have problems using the quote function correctly, or at all many times, some of these might be direct quotes you're making, not using the quote function -- letting them do your talking for you.)

Nov 30, 2010: "The housing will NEVER come back"

Nov 30, 2010 "I was just re-iterating some facts for the morons on the board who think there is going to be a recovery."

July 3, 2012: "The entire system is bankrupt."

Oct 23, 2012: "STOCK MARKET IS CRASHING".

Nov. 26, 2012 "we're right on the edge. The trend is not only down it looks a lot like the 2001 and 2008 time frames, as we were heading ... more data this week, but this is not a positive print at all."

Dec 26, 2018: "Here’s how it will all play out

Bear market (currently)
Recession (2019)
0% interest rates (mid 2019)
QE 4 (mid 2019)
Gold $2000
Dollar collapse (late 2019)
Gold $3000
Inflation (late 2019)
Gold $4000
Sovereign debt crises (2020)
Bond market collapse (2020)
The real crash (2021)"

Dec 27, 2018: "Peak oil and market crash are here, just a little later than planned. Grab a seat and enjoy the show."

March 4, 2019: "At some point the stock market will acknowledge all the horrible economic news."

March 8, 2019: "We need to change the title of this thread to “global economic crash”.

May 3, 2019: "Actually, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has been down for two days in a row, and investors are getting kind of antsy."

May 3, 2019: "The bottom line is, the next crash has already begun. It started at the end of 2018, and is only becoming more pervasive with each passing month."

July 5, 2019: "Strong jobs market? The US labor force has actually contracted by more than 600,000 workers this year bloomberg.com/opinion/articl… via @bopinion Household Survey jobs down this year by almost 200,000, while twice as many who were earlier unemployed have given up looking for jobs. WOW"

Aug 2, 2019: "The Russel 2,000 is now officially back in correction territory, down 12.5% from its high. It will likely be the 1st major index to return to bear market territory, but it won't be the last. Of note is that the index most sensitive to the domestic economy is the weakest!":

Oct 8, 2019: "I stay away from stock market predictions due to manipulation."

Oct 24, 2019: "Manufacturing is in contraction (fact)
Service sector in contraction (fact)
GDP heading to zero (1.5 estimates in Q3 and 1% in Q4)
Retail sales falling
Home sales falling
Auto sales falling
Durable goods just fell
Business investment just fell to lowest levels since Trump was elected
CAT earnings just tanked
Boeing earnings just tanked
Amazon earnings just tanked
Ford earnings were bad
GM earnings were bad
FED is pumping in 100 billion per night in the repo market to keeps the banks solvent

More rate cuts coming
Massive QE coming

All this and you still have the fools arguing that things aren’t collapsing. And we are just getting started."

....

(Apparently there was a lot of data missing from 2012 to 2018, which is why there was such a big gap in the quoted examples.)

But yes, of course, all you ever do is "predict the markets are going to continue to rise..." Shame on anyone for interpreting your blather as negative re the market, including you spamming this thread with cherry picked negative stats pretty much EVERY DAY. :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 31 Oct 2019, 07:35:42

I think you are not comprehending a market crash with economic crash. I have stated numerous times that I wish the title of this thread was ‘economic crash’. I don’t give two fucks about the stock market. My wife has several million in a Vanguard fund that is all S&P, so I hope it doesn’t crash.....but it’s going to unfortunately. We’ve went over this several times.


I love how you guys are obsessed with me. And this thing is just getting started.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby evilgenius » Thu 31 Oct 2019, 09:00:22

This thread is full of short term predictions, when what's wrong with the system is longer term in nature. Those long term issues can boil down, becoming a sudden issue, but looking at the statistics largely cited will only tell you when that has happened, not even that it is close beforehand. The money supply increases the more borrowing there is. It responds, also, to political machinations. These things that people are alarmed about in this thread are more telling of policies at work which hinge upon things in the economy which show up in those statistics than about how it's all going to come crashing down any day now.

I was just reading about another round of testing in the nation's, the US, public schools, for instance. The results were, apparently, dismal. Predictably, the report came with the promise, or threat, that some sort of private sector initiative, school choice, would solve everything. Once again, though, no one brought up how the entire idea of mass public education was designed for an industrialized world, and that globalization has placed us in a post-industrial one. I don't know what form public education should take in the wake of globalization, but teaching children to be adequate cogs in factories is probably not the answer. Competency levels were always about analyzing whether that was being achieved. Perhaps it would be much better to teach children how to comprehend what is going on when larger themes, like memes that sway them, are seeking to influence them. Or, won't that sort of comprehension be important in the coming world?

As far as what is going on within the larger economy as it is related to borrowing, the stats thrown around don't get at the separation of local economies from the greater economy. There has been a great deal of deflationary pressure throughout the system because of that, but it has come alongside a great amount of wealth disparity. Further rate cuts may not be doing those within local economies any favors, as they do nothing to correct the balance of investment. The mom and pop stores are competing against Amazon, and they are losing. They could probably use things like breaks on sales taxes, but the whole idea of their economic base relying upon that form of extraction won't let go. That's another example of the industrial world's ideas reigning in the post-industrial world.

There's a great deal of Balkanization throughout the US, as to one degree or another the local political response to globalization has realized the new playing field or not. In some cases, there is a lot of apparent wealth spread around, mostly extracted from real estate values. In other cases, people are trying to bring back manufacturing. Maybe if rates do go negative, indicating a sort of subsidy to manufacturers, they can succeed? I don't know.

I do know that all of this is taking place among a backlash politically, which has seen Donald Trump elected as president. He is decidedly anti-globalist. There's a recipe in that for each of us winding up on our own, and we should see that. Are these complaints merely showing us the necessity of finally adapting to global trends, or is it time to consider how different everyone else is from us?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 31 Oct 2019, 09:37:33

According to John Williams at Shadow Stats, if they calculated inflation like they use to, we would have had two positive GDP quarters since 2008.

Everything is manipulated. No inflation? Really? Then why are all the containers smaller? Because people are too stupid to look at facts. They believe everything they’re told. They wanted a nation full of idiots, and it’s worked.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 31 Oct 2019, 09:40:06

"Automotive companies have announced 43,025 job cuts this year, 197% higher than the 14,489 announced through the same point last year. It is the highest total in the first ten months of the year since 2009, when 164,440 cuts were recorded."
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 31 Oct 2019, 10:29:57

Powell: "We won't cut any more unless there is a crisis"

Trump: "Our enemies at the Fed must cut more"

What happens next?


More cuts. Duh
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby StarvingLion » Thu 31 Oct 2019, 11:22:19

Why isn't Cog investing in EOG and XOM instead of useless shit like ATT? He won't invest in Oil Companies.

He stuffs hay and water inside his gas tank.

I went into the Ford dealership yesterday. They aren't moving any vehicles at all. I'm going in there in January and offer $5K for a Ford Bullitt. I'll tell'em Commie Cog can cover the rest with his 0% fake money "investing".
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby StarvingLion » Thu 31 Oct 2019, 11:36:56

Gold soaring, Oil Collapsing. The Worthless Junk Currency is in total freefall.

Cog's EPD stock is totally collapsing. Its gone from $40 to $20 in the past 5 years and this clown says it will make you wealthy?

Unfreakingreal.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 31 Oct 2019, 11:47:20

Chicago PMI took another dump

The two standouts from the gory Chicago PMI: New Orders declined to 37.0, its lowest since March 2009. Order Backlogs fell by 13.6 points to 33.1.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 31 Oct 2019, 11:53:00

In before part 11 of this failed prediction train.


There has only been one conclusion: the oil age will end, and the world's existing industrial economy will end with it. Depletion can be no more denied,or stopped than the rising of the sun. We are bound by the Laws of Nature! To believe otherwise is to experience a religious delirium founded in the hubris that we will eventually progress to a state of godhood. There is 10,000 years of history to show that is not going to happen!

China's Bond Market Faces Turmoil Amid Maturity Deluge
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/china ... ity-deluge

While the US bond market has had its share of harrowing slumps and vomit-inducing short squeezes in the past year as consensus shifted from one of "the neutral rate is far away" to "here comes NIRP", China's bonds have been a bastion of stability, trading in a tight range between 3% and 3.50% for the past year

That may be about to change.

The reason: a wall of bond maturities is about to flood across China’s sovereign-bond market, which in the past three months has already been reeling from a global sell-off and rising inflation.

According to Bloomberg, more than 2 trillion yuan ($283 billion) of local-government notes will mature in 2020, a record and 58% more than this year’s level.


Image

A fiat currency is an entry on a credit/ debit ledger. It is a bookkeeping activity. Originally this was done by counting sea shells, and pretty rocks. Then pieces of gold, silver, or even chunks of iron. About 1000 years ago? someone invented the double entry bookkeeping system. It was much simpler than carrying around boxes of rocks. When goods and services are produced they are placed on the credit side of the ledger. When they are consumed it goes on the debit side. When more is consumed than produced the money in circulation goes down (the balance on the ledger declines) and the central banks print more to replace what has disappeared. They simply make the number on the credit side bigger.

In a balanced economy the amount consumed equals what is produced, and the money supply remains constant. Credits going on it equal debits coming off the ledger. There is enough money for the economy to pay its bills. Our present economy is consuming much, much more than it is producing. $48 trillion a year, and growing. That is the amount that the world debt is increasing.

When the central banks increase the size of the number on the credit side it increases the money in circulation. To make that money usable it must be transferred to the credit side of the general economy's ledger sheets. That is accomplished through the credit markets. The credit markets are the Achilles heal of the debt based monetary system. If the system becomes too out of balance, with debits exceeding credits, the issuers of the debt begin to get concerned that they aren't going to get paid back. That is the essence of a credit crisis.

The world now has $341 trillion in debt, and most of that is held by entities that can not repay it. The US has over 5 $trillion in BBB rated, almost junk, bonds, and Europe is in even worse shape. There is $17 trillion in negative rate debt that is so bad that they had to pay someone to take it! The world is consuming much, much more than it is producing.

Depletion is like a human aging. They are still moving, but going slower and slower. The fossil fuel age is getting old, and production of goods and services has not kept pace with consumption because of it. When the leverage on oil reachs 1:1 we will be back to hauling around boxes of pretty rocks, or swapping pieces of gold. The last time we checked that leverage was 1.18:1, down from its high of 10.7:1.

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 31 Oct 2019, 14:06:22

Chicago PMI Plunges To Worst Drop In 39 Years

After a brief, hope-filled, bounce in August, October's Chicago PMI is a shitshow, plunging from 50.4 in August to 43.2 (contraction) in October (well below the 48.0 expected).
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 31 Oct 2019, 18:52:18

Bank runs in China have started. It will spread to Europe soon, then to the US.

Things are coming a part and it’s happening fast. Riots and protests in over 25 countries currently too.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 31 Oct 2019, 20:17:42

Armageddon wrote:I love how you guys are obsessed with me.


Yep. It's always been about the attention for you.

evilgenius wrote:This thread is full of short term predictions, when what's wrong with the system is longer term in nature. Those long term issues can boil down, becoming a sudden issue, but looking at the statistics largely cited will only tell you when that has happened, not even that it is close beforehand.


Leave it to evilgenius to put everything in its proper perspective. Thank you for some much-needed reason amidst the constant short-term fearmongering.

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 31 Oct 2019, 20:17:48

The Fed's balance sheet surged by $51.1 billion last week, and is now back above $4 trillion. The balance sheet expanded by over $250 billion in the past 7 weeks. The Fed is actually expanding its balance sheet twice as fast now that it's not doing QE than when it was. QE on steroids!


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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 31 Oct 2019, 20:42:48

here is what the balance sheet looks like as of recent

Image

The Fed over tightened and now they are aggressively trying to get back to a level that they haven't specified yet. A long way to go to get where they were 1.5 years ago when they started tightening.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 31 Oct 2019, 20:57:01

Long way to go? Not at this rate.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 01 Nov 2019, 10:43:24

Manufacturing ISM Contracts Third Month, Production Down Sharper
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 01 Nov 2019, 11:45:22

Atlanta Fed's GDPNow fell to 1.1% for fourth quarter from 1.5% Can’t think of a better reason to rally.
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