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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 28 Oct 2019, 21:00:57

That's hardly applicable to today.


my point was that a high GDP/debt ratio didn't destroy the country back then and a lower now is not going to destroy it either, especially with interest rates as low as they are.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Cog » Mon 28 Oct 2019, 23:52:28

ATT had a nice earnings beat and a subsequent stock price increase. ATT has outperformed the S&P 500 this year. Good news for a company that has had some earlier difficulty acquiring Times Warner due to government objections.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 29 Oct 2019, 09:12:21

the Real world is that the Stock Market didn't crash


Technology changes. Ooooooh scary!


If the fast crash doomers


One incredible stream of stupid, useless, and demeaning platitudes. It is well orchastrated, and goes well with Biden, the Crazy Dems, and Baghdad Bob's Second, or Third coming. Are you not entertained? But pay no attention to the little guy counting money behind the curtain?

"It makes no difference who makes the laws, as long as I can print the money". N. Rothschild

The neutral interest rate has now fallen to 1.62%, world debt is $341 trillion, and the FED is pumping over twice the total US GDP into the system to keep it from imploding. The market is very aware that it is being pimped for political expediency, but they just can't resist picking up the last couple of nickels ahead of the steam roller. The exit bell will ring, it always does, but this time the entire world will be waiting with increasing nervousness at the exit door. With a few billion hyper ventilating sheep ready at the cliff edge, it should be quit the show. Computers will be smoking, and melting down around the world, and their last dying words will resound across the globe; Sell Vladimir, Sell!
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 29 Oct 2019, 15:35:06

Trump: "Fed. needs to follow other nations with negative interest rates."


Booming economy
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 30 Oct 2019, 08:37:50

The markets are paralyzed today waiting on a yes, or no from the FED. Will they cut a quarter point, or won't they? The market, at one time, operated on EPS, EBITDA, Capex expenditures, and other mundane statistics. It has been expedited; it now runs on the flip of a coin, and an Amazon computer. Everything will be fine. The market has been made idiot proof.

Debt formation will soon be destroying the money faster than Uncle Powell can conjure it up. The Three Ring Circus at the Wall Street Potemkim Village will then be taking a break while they work out the problem of why money appears to be nothing more than a number on a credit/ debit ledger sheet? They won't notice that the economy has stopped working until the lights have gone out, and the bag that held the Gummy Bears is empty.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 30 Oct 2019, 08:56:56

Trump bragging about 1.9% GDP. 1.4 trillion deficit and 1.9% GDP is beyond terrible. How about another 1/4 point rate cut today?

Q3 2018: 2.9%
Q3 2019: 1.9%
That's a 35% drop year over year.

Chaser: US Personal Consumption Q3: 1.7% (est 2.6%, prev 4.6%)
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 30 Oct 2019, 09:58:44

CEO Confidence plunges to lowest since 2009. One of the charts that scare Wall Street

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... all-street
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 30 Oct 2019, 10:26:13

Q3 2018: 2.9%
Q3 2019: 1.9%
That's a 35% drop year over year.


talk about cherry picking....perhaps it's worth looking at the quarterly GDP increase in the context of the last 10 years

Image

Looks pretty normal to me

And we still need to point out GDP is increasing.....it might be at a slightly lower rate than last quarter (0.1% lower) but it is still increasing. It is not negative as you have been predicting would happen for the last 3 quarters.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 30 Oct 2019, 10:36:09

rockdoc123 wrote:
Q3 2018: 2.9%
Q3 2019: 1.9%
That's a 35% drop year over year.


talk about cherry picking....perhaps it's worth looking at the quarterly GDP increase in the context of the last 10 years

Image

Looks pretty normal to me

And we still need to point out GDP is increasing.....it might be at a slightly lower rate than last quarter (0.1% lower) but it is still increasing. It is not negative as you have been predicting would happen for the last 3 quarters.




Spin it how you want, but these are facts

Q3 2018: 2.9%
Q3 2019: 1.9%
That's a 35% drop year over year.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 30 Oct 2019, 10:52:29

Rate cuts - check
QE - check
GDP heading to zero - check

Pretty much everything I predicting is happening.

We are just getting started. This looks like 2007 all over again but this time, the FED has no ammo left.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Yoshua » Wed 30 Oct 2019, 12:00:13

U.S GDP 2%
U.S Deficit 7%

Well...growth is growth...it sure is better than EU where we only have growth in debt without GDP growth.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 30 Oct 2019, 12:15:05

Yoshua wrote:U.S GDP 2%
U.S Deficit 7%

Well...growth is growth...it sure is better than EU where we only have growth in debt without GDP growth.




Heading to zero. Give it time
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 30 Oct 2019, 13:03:17

FED cuts 1/4


No brainer. More are coming
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 30 Oct 2019, 13:48:02

Armageddon wrote:Spin it how you want, but these are facts

Q3 2018: 2.9%
Q3 2019: 1.9%
That's a 35% drop year over year.

Fact: You cherry pick at only superficially negative data all the time. You don't bother with context, trends over time, ensuring you use reliable sources, etc.

And thus your endless predictions are almost always wrong, especially re meaningful time frames, or actionable investment advice.

(With the market hitting new highs, bailing out well over a year ago isn't looking so good).

So keep spewing your "facts". And keep expecting folks with some perspective and education re economics not to take you particularly seriously.

A recession isn't the end of the world, though your ilk no doubt will continue to claim it's so many, many, times.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 30 Oct 2019, 13:52:53

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Armageddon wrote:Spin it how you want, but these are facts

Q3 2018: 2.9%
Q3 2019: 1.9%
That's a 35% drop year over year.

Fact: You cherry pick at only superficially negative data all the time. You don't bother with context, trends over time, ensuring you use reliable sources, etc.

And thus your endless predictions are almost always wrong, especially re meaningful time frames, or actionable investment advice.

(With the market hitting new highs, bailing out well over a year ago isn't looking so good).

So keep spewing your "facts". And keep expecting folks with some perspective and education re economics not to take you particularly seriously.

A recession isn't the end of the world, though your ilk no doubt will continue to claim it's so many, many, times.



My timing might be a little late on things, but it’s never wrong. Timing is nearly impossible to predict because of the extraordinary measures they use to temporarily halt the inevitable collapse.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby GHung » Wed 30 Oct 2019, 14:01:31

Outcast_Searcher wrote: .....

A recession isn't the end of the world, though your ilk no doubt will continue to claim it's so many, many, times.


Funny, that. The only person here I recall repeatedly using the phrase "the end of the world" is you.
Blessed are the Meek, for they shall inherit nothing but their Souls. - Anonymous Ghung Person
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 30 Oct 2019, 15:02:05

Funny, that. The only person here I recall repeatedly using the phrase "the end of the world" is you.


You have exposed his true nature; he is a closet tarradiddle; aka "doomer"


My timing might be a little late on things, but it’s never wrong. Timing is nearly impossible to predict because of the extraordinary measures they use to temporarily halt the inevitable collapse.


Your timing isn't bad considering how many variables must to analyzed. There is a simple approach to the problem. It is our hypothesis that debt formation destroys the currency in circulation. Debt always shows up on the debit side of the balance sheet. The liquidity declines that the central banks are attempting to compensate for through currency creation result from that debt formation. As the debt is growing exponentially they will soon be unable to inject enough currency into the system to keep it working. The credit markets that must function for them to inject that liquidity are their Achilles heal. Helicopter money, which they may attempt to use, will destroy the economy very rapidly through hyperinflation. World debt is now growing at approx. $48 trillion a year. Collateral issues for their monetization process will be appearing very soon. We will see it coming as increasing stress in the credit markets. We have just had one such instance with repo.

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 30 Oct 2019, 15:06:07

Armageddon wrote:My timing might be a little late on things, but it’s never wrong. Timing is nearly impossible to predict because of the extraordinary measures they use to temporarily halt the inevitable collapse.

If that were the case, why no hyperinflation (much less high inflation), despite you calling for it since 2011?

Completely wrong persistently isn't a little late, no matter how delusional you are.


By the way, in the real world, re current mainstream news:

S&P 500 closes at a record as Fed signals no rate hikes until inflation rises ‘significantly’

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/30/stock-m ... treet.html


So your claim for zero rates relatively soon isn't looking so good. Just like your claims of a market "crash" have been persistently wrong for this entire thread.

But of course, you're just a "little" late. :roll:

Define "little"? Multiple decades?

What the hell good are your rantings if they are COMPLETELY impractical?

Seriously, re your overall claims vs accuracy, you sound like you belong in a mental institution. Good company with shorty, starving lion, etc.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 30 Oct 2019, 15:10:30

shortonoil wrote:
Funny, that. The only person here I recall repeatedly using the phrase "the end of the world" is you.


You have exposed his true nature; he is a closet tarradiddle; aka "doomer"


My timing might be a little late on things, but it’s never wrong. Timing is nearly impossible to predict because of the extraordinary measures they use to temporarily halt the inevitable collapse.


Your timing isn't bad considering how many variables must to analyzed. There is a simple approach to the problem. It is our hypothesis that debt formation destroys the currency in circulation. Debt always shows up on the debit side of the balance sheet. The liquidity declines that the central banks are attempting to compensate for through currency creation result from that debt formation. As the debt is growing exponentially they will soon be unable to inject enough currency into the system to keep it working. The credit markets that must function for them to inject that liquidity are their Achilles heal. Helicopter money, which they may attempt to use, will destroy the economy very rapidly through hyperinflation. World debt is now growing at approx. $48 trillion a year. Collateral issues for their monetization process will be appearing very soon. We will see it coming as increasing stress in the credit markets. We have just had one such instance



Good analysis. It does look like they are losing control fast. Debts and deficits are exploding. Their printing presses will be running 24/7. That’s why I went all in on gold and silver last year. I saw this coming. Hell, Ray Charles could see it coming. We aren’t there yet. They can possibly keep it floating until the election. 1.75 percentage points to work with and massive QE.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 30 Oct 2019, 15:13:54

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Armageddon wrote:My timing might be a little late on things, but it’s never wrong. Timing is nearly impossible to predict because of the extraordinary measures they use to temporarily halt the inevitable collapse.

If that were the case, why no hyperinflation (much less high inflation), despite you calling for it since 2011?

Completely wrong persistently isn't a little late, no matter how delusional you are.


By the way, in the real world, re current mainstream news:

S&P 500 closes at a record as Fed signals no rate hikes until inflation rises ‘significantly’

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/30/stock-m ... treet.html


So your claim for zero rates relatively soon isn't looking so good. Just like your claims of a market "crash" have been persistently wrong for this entire thread.

But of course, you're just a "little" late. :roll:

Define "little"? Multiple decades?

What the hell good are your rantings if they are COMPLETELY impractical?

Seriously, re your overall claims vs accuracy, you sound like you belong in a mental institution. Good company with shorty, starving lion, etc.




Market crash? I’ve been saying the markets are going to continue to rise due to the massive stimulus they are injecting.
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