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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby StarvingLion » Sat 26 Oct 2019, 11:22:11

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Yonnipun wrote:When do you think the stock market scam is finally kaputt? I can not wait to see the faces of the bankers when they have to admit that they should have been studied physics instead of econimics.

As though a recession, when it occurs, will be the end of the world. As if the stock market is "a scam." If you can't do better than that, go back to grade school.


If a halfwit like Cog buys stock in Ford because some "analyst" said so, then grade school isn't even required.

As for "end of the world", well here is a picture of what The Oil Apocalypse in 2025 will look like:

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 26 Oct 2019, 11:31:04

Let’s not act like this is some sort of ordinary recession brewing. We’ve never had interest rates heading to zero and GDP heading to zero at the same time. It normally takes 5-6 percentage points of rate cuts to turn around a recession. They will have zero when this recession takes hold. We’ve never had Europe and Asia crashing at the same too. China was economic engine that pulled the US out of the Great Recession (along with 15+ trillion dollars of stimulus). We’ve also never had this amount of debt either. 2x as much debt as the Great Recession and deficits are exploding.


Fed Temporary Repos:

9/17: We're doing repos today and tomorrow.
9/19: We're extending repos until 10/10. $75B overnight, $30B term
10/4: We're extending repos until 11/4
10/11:We're extending repos until Jan 2020
10/23:We're expanding overnight repo offering to $120B, $45B term


Nothing to see here...move along
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 26 Oct 2019, 12:10:35

Let’s not act like this is some sort of ordinary recession brewing.


The FED is injecting $120 billion per day into the system; an amount almost exactly equal to the rate of world debt formation. Thousands are dying daily in protests and riots all over the world. California is burning up, and going black. In many areas, including mine, the insects have all but disappeared.

The oil age is over; oil no longer has positive leverage in the economy. The planet is an ecological mess. Praying is once again coming back in vogue, and the churches will once again be full. This is no ordinary recession!!
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby StarvingLion » Sat 26 Oct 2019, 12:28:40

Nothing to see here...move along


It's Nothing but a Gigantic Monstrous Ponzi Scheme

all youze talk about "Debt", "Recession", "Markets", "Interest rates", and other assorted bullshit.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 26 Oct 2019, 12:38:08

Would it surprise you if Trump was a plant and this entire impeachment fiasco was a diversionary tactic to keep the moron sheep distracted while this entire financial system crashed?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby marmico » Sat 26 Oct 2019, 14:08:06

The oil age is over; oil no longer has positive leverage in the economy.


More BS from the ETP Bozo when it comes to powering light vehicles (gasoline), heavy vehicles (diesel) and flight (jet fuel).

Vehicle road miles and passenger air miles keep on rising.

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 26 Oct 2019, 15:41:34

Vehicle road miles and passenger air miles keep on rising.


Next time look up the meaning of "leverage". Spend $1 and get back $2 is leverage of 2. Now try to convert how many miles the Model T Ford did per year into leverage. It leaves one a little confused - unless your latest lobotomy didn't take!

Someone Just Made A Huge Bet The Market Crashes By April
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/someo ... shes-april
The standout trade was one block of 50,000 April $65 calls that were bought for 10 cents (for a total costs of $500,000).


A half million $ bet that the market would crash this coming spring. That is what one calls a "doomer", or in the new, and improved PC lingo a "tarradiddle". The market is betting that the market is going to crash?! Guess What?

Would it surprise you if Trump was a plant and this entire impeachment fiasco was a diversionary tactic to keep the moron sheep distracted while this entire financial system crashed?


Like in SURPRISE, SURPRISE! No. The Debt Bomb has been building for a long, long time. So they are calling it at around $350 trillion. Nice round number! Hold on to your Confederate money, a nice new improved, government digital currency is coming your way. Those oily, paper things are now for museums. It should work, until everything else doesn't. There are lots of games to be played with currency, not many that last for any length of time with the economy. The oil age is over!
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 27 Oct 2019, 01:45:11

Michael Pento explaining the repo market and what’s happening in the economy. He’s one of the best.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=hx00m6IMrt8&t=199s


Wow, I’m really scared now. Somebody hold me
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Sun 27 Oct 2019, 04:13:24

By obervation of posting patterns on this forum one can determine when economy is deteriorating or bouncing back.

At the time when Armageddon is posting much and Outcast Searcher is keeping quiet economy is going down.
If the opposite is true, then yet another fit of money printing and false promises have managed to kick a can down the road once more.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 27 Oct 2019, 05:36:58

EnergyUnlimited wrote:By obervation of posting patterns on this forum one can determine when economy is deteriorating or bouncing back.

At the time when Armageddon is posting much and Outcast Searcher is keeping quiet economy is going down.
If the opposite is true, then yet another fit of money printing and false promises have managed to kick a can down the road once more.


I think you have that backwards EU. The economy in the USA has been in a boom cycle for going on three years now judging by the amount of visible construction and new jobs being generated. The constant refrain from the tiny perma-doom chorus is more a symptom that their wished for condition is not taking place than proof that it actually exists. Contrariwise the last term of the Obama Administration was nothing positive economically outside of elite pockets like New York City where finance floated by the Central Bankers dominates the economy. Out here in what the coasties call "Flyover Country" the economy is going great gangbusters.

Don't take my word for it, pull up a satellite picture of almost anywhere in the USA from 2015 and compare the amount of heavy construction you can spot to the same images from 2019.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby marmico » Sun 27 Oct 2019, 06:03:07

Next time look up the meaning of "leverage".


The same quantity of oil powers more vehicle miles and passenger miles. That's leverage, you effing bozo retard.

https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/mo ... ec2_11.pdf
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby marmico » Sun 27 Oct 2019, 06:38:59

The economy in the USA has been in a boom cycle for going on three years now judging by the amount of visible construction and new jobs being generated.


Huh? I'll give you a heads up. The red line (PAYEMS) will be revised lower in February 2020.

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Sun 27 Oct 2019, 08:34:58

Tanada wrote:I think you have that backwards EU. The economy in the USA has been in a boom cycle for going on three years now judging by the amount of visible construction and new jobs being generated. The constant refrain from the tiny perma-doom chorus is more a symptom that their wished for condition is not taking place than proof that it actually exists.

OK, but current issues with money generation to stabilize banking system (again) are not reassuring.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 27 Oct 2019, 08:45:17

Tanada wrote:
EnergyUnlimited wrote:By obervation of posting patterns on this forum one can determine when economy is deteriorating or bouncing back.

At the time when Armageddon is posting much and Outcast Searcher is keeping quiet economy is going down.
If the opposite is true, then yet another fit of money printing and false promises have managed to kick a can down the road once more.


I think you have that backwards EU. The economy in the USA has been in a boom cycle for going on three years now judging by the amount of visible construction and new jobs being generated. The constant refrain from the tiny perma-doom chorus is more a symptom that their wished for condition is not taking place than proof that it actually exists. Contrariwise the last term of the Obama Administration was nothing positive economically outside of elite pockets like New York City where finance floated by the Central Bankers dominates the economy. Out here in what the coasties call "Flyover Country" the economy is going great gangbusters.

Don't take my word for it, pull up a satellite picture of almost anywhere in the USA from 2015 and compare the amount of heavy construction you can spot to the same images from 2019.




Housing and auto sucks, but record low interest rates and incentives have kept them from totally collapsing. Lowering the loan qualifications have helped too. They’ll give a loan to anybody with a heartbeat. And with that, you get this:

"Subprime auto loans blow up...60-day delinquency rate surged to 5.93% in August, substantially higher than during the peak of the Financial Crisis at 5.04% in January 2009"
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 27 Oct 2019, 09:45:08

If the opposite is true, then yet another fit of money printing and false promises have managed to kick a can down the road once more.


The FED is now finding it necessary to print at a rate of $44 trillion a year to keep the scales balanced. The rest of the world's central banks are contributing heavily to the pile. That is more than twice the US GDP, and half of the entire world's GDP. That is more like kicking a super tanker down the road than a can. It is obviously a desperation play, and can't be maintained for very long without destroying the world's entire monetary system.

The US appears to be doing better than the rest of the world because it is the go to place of the world's capital outflows. According to the 2016 figures of the IMF, that is about $4+ trillion a year. The US is draining off the bulk of the world's free capital to keep itself afloat. That leaves no future for the remainder of the world, and none for the US when those capital flows stop coming.

If the US is printing half of the world's GDP, where is it going? If it was real we would all be embarrassingly rich! The only sink available on the planet that can absorb that kind of volume is the world's Debt Black Hole! Now at $341 trillion, and growing exponentially. The world is now irrevocably bankrupt, it is at the end of the oil age, and the ecology has been devastated. The central banks can now only print imaginary money that has no real economic value. The world is now feasting at a table laid out by virtual reality. It is an imaginary banquet which is now evaporating back into the illusion that was originally used to seduce us.

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Cog » Sun 27 Oct 2019, 10:31:27

EPD Stock is a good buy at this price point. Good dividend and solid quarterly profits. I don't normally recommend stocks but they are solid for future growth. Analysts put this at a $34/Share future stock price. If nothing else, good dividend.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 27 Oct 2019, 11:25:56

Tanada wrote:
EnergyUnlimited wrote:By obervation of posting patterns on this forum one can determine when economy is deteriorating or bouncing back.

At the time when Armageddon is posting much and Outcast Searcher is keeping quiet economy is going down.
If the opposite is true, then yet another fit of money printing and false promises have managed to kick a can down the road once more.


1). I posted 3 times on this thread Friday and four times yesterday. How is that keeping quiet? I post under 2 posts a day on average. (I just checked those three data points. (Verifying claims is a thing that exists).

2). Armageddon floods this site with nonsense pretty much constantly, since the start of this thread (which failed, re its prediction, within a few months). Especially lately, like he's wishing hard for insta-doom. Stretching things more and more. Very often poor or no citations, as per usual.

3). The insta-doomers of all stripes (not just here) have been babbling nonsense for quite a few decades now, always coming up with a new theory from poor sources, when their last prophecy of doom is dead wrong, or turns out to be, say, a recession. If this is a useful pattern, then so is a broken clock.

If you're going to regale us with useful information on timing the economy, seriously, check your facts just a LITTLE, and then try harder. Hint: very few can predict the economy or the markets, but thanks for playing.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 27 Oct 2019, 11:48:47

shortonoil wrote:The FED is now finding it necessary to print at a rate of $44 trillion a year to keep the scales balanced.

Utter nonsense, consistent with your usual total lack of understanding of economics, logic, facts, etc.

Since you don't pay your debts, apparently you don't understand the concept of a LOAN.

When the Fed does a short term loan, it gets paid back. They are NOT expanding the money supply or printing to the tune of the full amount of the daily loans.

It looks like the Fed balance sheet has expanded by about $200 billion over the past two months. This is after declining nearly $700 billion in the previous two years. I know math is hard for you, so that's a rate of roughly $1.2 trillion a year for the recent expansion program.

Instead of using doomer sources like you rely on, how about looking at actual Fed data?

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL

So there's your "QE". $200 billionish balance sheet expansion thus far. Hint: You can move the left hand slider right to zoom in on the chart range to get a better look at the numbers -- if you actually care about numbers vs. spreading nonsensical FUD, repeated from "sources" trying to sell "investment advice", gold and silver coins, etc.

So what's next, another round of name-calling to show how wise you are, since as usual, credible facts and your claims don't agree?

Before you start whining about lack of detail or waving your arms re conspiracies, you can get plenty of detail from the "factors affecting reserve balances link below the chart. Here, for example, is that data for the week ending 10/24:

https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 27 Oct 2019, 12:05:35

Armageddon wrote:Let’s not act like this is some sort of ordinary recession brewing. We’ve never had interest rates heading to zero and GDP heading to zero at the same time. It normally takes 5-6 percentage points of rate cuts to turn around a recession. They will have zero when this recession takes hold. We’ve never had Europe and Asia crashing at the same too. China was economic engine that pulled the US out of the Great Recession (along with 15+ trillion dollars of stimulus). We’ve also never had this amount of debt either. 2x as much debt as the Great Recession and deficits are exploding.

And there have never been rough patches like 1929, 1987, 1997, 2000-2003, 2007-9, etc. etc.

And the economy never grows, so spewing only debt numbers out of context is valid. :roll:

And there have never been global recessions. :idea:

The more you flap your lips, the more hysterical and non-credible you get re your tone.

Of course, when your track record is basically zero, why not go for the emotional play?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 27 Oct 2019, 12:16:20

shortonoil wrote:The FED is now finding it necessary to print at a rate of $44 trillion a year to keep the scales balanced.

I wonder who is more likely to be right, re crediblity on Fed expansion magnitude, you or Wall Street? :roll:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/10/fed-bal ... appen.html

Morgan Stanley estimates that the Fed will purchase up to $330 billion in Treasury bills over the next six months, and will add $15 billion a month thereafter as it looks to determine the proper level of reserves. Strategist Kelcie Gerson wrote that the “optimal” level of reserves is likely around $1.45 trillion, though that will be a “much more of a moving and opaque target.”

That total would actually be somewhat below the current $1.52 trillion in reserves, though the Fed’s emergency repo operations since the September funding shortage have added $179 billion.

Gee. $179 billion since this started in September, as of reporting on 10/11. Funny how that correlates so well with my figure of $200ish billion as of last week. Could it be that, gasp, facts matter in the real world?

Funny how Wall Street, as reported by a credible source overall, is much more in line with the Fed data than empty arm waving hysteria from the usual suspects with FUD to sell something as their entire modus operandi. :arrow: Gee, I wonder if there might, just might, be something to correlations and whether real world data matters? :shock:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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