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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 25 Oct 2019, 12:08:44

Meanwhile, in the real world where credible news exists instead of relying on cherry picking, doomer sites, ridiculous energy theories, etc., the broad US market is trading near all time highs.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/25/dow-fut ... rizon.html

The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded 167 points higher, or 0.6%. The S&P 500 climbed 0.4% and briefly traded above its record closing high. The broad index also came within inches of its intraday all-time high. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.6%.

The NASDAQ and Dow are more like a percent off all time highs.

The point, of course, is that the constant crash mongering doesn't reflect reality -- it reflects the usual fast crash doom mongering.

But Amazon is down today, so let's all jump off high buildings, instead of looking at the overall trend. :roll:

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/char ... re-diluted
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 25 Oct 2019, 12:13:18

I can't decide which of the FUD spreaders around here is the best cherry picker. The usual suspects are so very good at it.

But look out guys. Automation is likely to replicate your expertise, and very economically, real soon now. :lol:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby StarvingLion » Fri 25 Oct 2019, 12:14:59

Outcast_Searcher wrote:Meanwhile, in the real world where credible news exists instead of relying on cherry picking, doomer sites, ridiculous energy theories, etc., the broad US market is trading near all time highs.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/25/dow-fut ... rizon.html

The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded 167 points higher, or 0.6%. The S&P 500 climbed 0.4% and briefly traded above its record closing high. The broad index also came within inches of its intraday all-time high. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.6%.

The NASDAQ and Dow are more like a percent off all time highs.

The point, of course, is that the constant crash mongering doesn't reflect reality -- it reflects the usual fast crash doom mongering.

But Amazon is down today, so let's all jump off high buildings, instead of looking at the overall trend. :roll:

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/char ... re-diluted


VF Corporation is an American worldwide apparel and footwear company founded in 1899 and headquartered in Denver, Colorado

VFC stock is down 7% today and has been in total fail mode for months.

DEGENERATE says: "Who cares...just print more fake ponzi money"
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 25 Oct 2019, 12:18:39

StarvingLion wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:Meanwhile, in the real world where credible news exists instead of relying on cherry picking, doomer sites, ridiculous energy theories, etc., the broad US market is trading near all time highs.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/25/dow-fut ... rizon.html

The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded 167 points higher, or 0.6%. The S&P 500 climbed 0.4% and briefly traded above its record closing high. The broad index also came within inches of its intraday all-time high. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.6%.

The NASDAQ and Dow are more like a percent off all time highs.

The point, of course, is that the constant crash mongering doesn't reflect reality -- it reflects the usual fast crash doom mongering.

But Amazon is down today, so let's all jump off high buildings, instead of looking at the overall trend. :roll:

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/char ... re-diluted


VF Corporation is an American worldwide apparel and footwear company founded in 1899 and headquartered in Denver, Colorado

VFC stock is down 7% today and has been in total fail mode for months.

DEGENERATE says: "Who cares...just print more fake ponzi money"

Thanks for making my point.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby StarvingLion » Fri 25 Oct 2019, 12:24:08

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
StarvingLion wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:Meanwhile, in the real world where credible news exists instead of relying on cherry picking, doomer sites, ridiculous energy theories, etc., the broad US market is trading near all time highs.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/25/dow-fut ... rizon.html

The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded 167 points higher, or 0.6%. The S&P 500 climbed 0.4% and briefly traded above its record closing high. The broad index also came within inches of its intraday all-time high. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.6%.

The NASDAQ and Dow are more like a percent off all time highs.

The point, of course, is that the constant crash mongering doesn't reflect reality -- it reflects the usual fast crash doom mongering.

But Amazon is down today, so let's all jump off high buildings, instead of looking at the overall trend. :roll:

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/char ... re-diluted


VF Corporation is an American worldwide apparel and footwear company founded in 1899 and headquartered in Denver, Colorado

VFC stock is down 7% today and has been in total fail mode for months.

DEGENERATE says: "Who cares...just print more fake ponzi money"

Thanks for making my point.


DEGENERATE, DEGENERATE, DEGENERATE.....AT LEAST AT LEAST AT LEAST...When the next AT LEAST increase happens in November I'll make sure to write it on the forehead of your INSOLVENT BRAIN.

UPDATE: The CRIMS cannot support oil. They are TOAST. The Oil Apocalypse will CRUSH'EM like a bug. Trillion $ deficits...who cares...its all FAKE MONEY NOW.

https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/opol ... icy_191023

Operating Policy
Statement Regarding Repurchase Operations
October 23, 2019

The Desk has released an update to the schedule of repurchase agreement (repo) operations for the current monthly period. Consistent with the most recent FOMC directive, to ensure that the supply of reserves remains ample even during periods of sharp increases in non-reserve liabilities, and to mitigate the risk of money market pressures that could adversely affect policy implementation, the amount offered in overnight repo operations will increase to at least $120 billion starting Thursday, October 24, 2019. The amount offered for the term repo operations scheduled for Thursday, October 24 and Tuesday, October 29, 2019, which span October month end, will increase to at least $45 billion.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 25 Oct 2019, 13:30:59

If one relied on such doomers like Zerohedge


When the use of the pseudo world "doomer" is outlawed because it is crude, obscene, and probably racists what will they ever replace it with: bloomer, sooner, boomer, or just zoomer? In case anyone gets stuck here is a list of nonsense words to draw from:

tarradiddle - cogs new addition to the PO lexicon. According to the cog "hypothesis of zero parameters" the tarradiddles are destroying the world!

credible news


cnbc? The joke went completely over Starve's head. Now the S&P went up 13 points for only half a $trillion would be funnier.

http://phrontistery.info/nonsense.html
https://sites.google.com/a/saintelizabe ... able-lists
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 25 Oct 2019, 13:42:31

Weekly GDP Nowcast: nyfed.org/GDPnowcast
Q3 2019 → 1.9%
Q4 2019 → 0.9%


Look out below!!!
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 25 Oct 2019, 13:43:59

When the use of the pseudo world "doomer" is outlawed because it is crude, obscene, and probably racists what will they ever replace it with:


So apparently not only do you not have clue about anything to do with the petroleum industry or the economy you also have a very difficult time with the English language

Racist
a person who shows or feels discrimination or prejudice against people of other races, or who believes that a particular race is superior to another.


So given a doomer is not a race this obviously is a pretty stupid characterization, isn’t it?

obscene

offensive to morality or decency; indecent; depraved: obscene language. causing uncontrolled sexual desire.


Well maybe you get physically excited about being called a doomer but that is something to take up with your psychiatrist….again a stupid characterization and misuse of the English language

The term doomer, however, is defined as

A doomer is someone who believes that the global problems, including, but not limited to those of ecological exhaustion, —such as overpopulation, climate change, and pollution–will cause the collapse of civilization, significant human population die-off, and even lead to eventual human extinction.


Which is pretty much what you put forward in each and every one of your posts. So this is what the lawyers would call "fair comment".
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 25 Oct 2019, 13:50:36

Weekly GDP Nowcast: nyfed.org/GDPnowcast
Q3 2019 → 1.9%
Q4 2019 → 0.9%


Look out below!!!


Bloomberg points to a contrary view:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-10-24/the-u-s-will-likely-avoid-recession-in-2020-here-s-why

To avoid a recession in the US in 2020, households need to keep spending, peace needs to break out in global trade wars, and investors can’t get spooked – by the US presidential election or anything else. It is likely that all these things will happen. That’s why Bloomberg Eonomics is forecasting the the US economy will grow 2% in 2020 as the record-length expansion turns 11 years old in June.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 25 Oct 2019, 15:09:49

The U.S. government just reported that the fiscal 2019 budget deficit ended the year at $984 billion, the largest since 2012. The actual national debt increased by about 1.4 trillion during that fiscal year, or 40% more than what was officially reported. Another government fraud!


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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby marmico » Fri 25 Oct 2019, 16:51:13

Armadillo, ETP Bozo (masquerading as central banker Bozo Bedford) and the Cowardly Lion are quite the triumvirate.

The S&P500 is a hair away from a record high, WTI oil is $56 and the Atlanta and New York Q3 GDP nowcasts are 1.7% and 1.9%.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 25 Oct 2019, 19:01:06

Trillion dollar deficits.
110% debt to GDP.
$120B daily repos.
$60B per month Fed balance sheet expansion.
Rate cuts galore.
Sub 2% GDP growth.

"The economy is in a good place" - Jay Powell
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Yonnipun » Sat 26 Oct 2019, 03:21:09

When do you think the stock market scam is finally kaputt? I can not wait to see the faces of the bankers when they have to admit that they should have been studied physics instead of econimics.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Cog » Sat 26 Oct 2019, 03:52:07

Yonnipun wrote:When do you think the stock market scam is finally kaputt? I can not wait to see the faces of the bankers when they have to admit that they should have been studied physics instead of econimics.


Let me sell you a clue here. The bankers will be made solvent before you will be.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 26 Oct 2019, 07:21:22

To avoid a recession in the US in 2020, households need to keep spending,


Bloomberg wants everyone to be in complete, irrevocable, slave bonded debt? How nice of them. Those are the people you really, really need to listen too. They obviously have nothing but your best interest at heart? Said the spider to the fly!

When do you think the stock market scam is finally kaputt? I can not wait to see the faces of the bankers when they have to admit that they should have been studied physics instead of econimics.


It's all right there in the graph. How long can the present system keep working when the debt is piling up at a rate equal to half of the world's GDP? Use your own best judgment. If you guessed a year, or two you are an optimists. Anything more than that, and you are probably an idiot.

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby evilgenius » Sat 26 Oct 2019, 07:27:24

The doom here is largely a component of many poster's lack of faith, but there are certain things to worry about that we could discuss. One of those might be to ask what would happen to the markets if the US does go fully isolationist? Is isolationism going to cut the US markets off from a source of money they have come to rely upon since the oil shocks of the 70's? I think that would take some doing beyond what Trump is up to. His rhetoric places him in a position hellbent upon going isolationist, but the way it might work out doesn't have to mean that the country would become as separated from what is going on in the world as it was in the years prior to WWII.

I am worried that will happen. Right now, there are many trends that require huge investment to see them through. Among them are; driverless cars, electrifying the transport grid, automating manufacturing such that manual labor that has always been necessary would be made redundant and responding to climate change. There is also something coming with money that looks pretty scary, if you are a private person. Soon, the maxim "cash is king" may no longer hold, as there may no longer be any cash around to use when plastic won't do. These things could spell doom, or not. They could be answers to problems man has faced for centuries. Just as well, in the wrong hands, they could harm people in ways we've never seen before.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 26 Oct 2019, 10:49:50

rockdoc123 wrote:
When the use of the pseudo world "doomer" is outlawed because it is crude, obscene, and probably racists what will they ever replace it with:


So apparently not only do you not have clue about anything to do with the petroleum industry or the economy you also have a very difficult time with the English language

Racist
a person who shows or feels discrimination or prejudice against people of other races, or who believes that a particular race is superior to another.


So given a doomer is not a race this obviously is a pretty stupid characterization, isn’t it?

obscene

offensive to morality or decency; indecent; depraved: obscene language. causing uncontrolled sexual desire.


Well maybe you get physically excited about being called a doomer but that is something to take up with your psychiatrist….again a stupid characterization and misuse of the English language

The term doomer, however, is defined as

A doomer is someone who believes that the global problems, including, but not limited to those of ecological exhaustion, —such as overpopulation, climate change, and pollution–will cause the collapse of civilization, significant human population die-off, and even lead to eventual human extinction.


Which is pretty much what you put forward in each and every one of your posts. So this is what the lawyers would call "fair comment".

Thanks rockdoc123 for pointing out some very simple facts with objective sources.

It's pretty clear to me that shorty is getting further around the bend (re reality). His ranting re total nonsense now seems to be on pretty much all subjects. Just making up whatever his emotions tell him. Cute in a very small child. Not so much for an adult.

I'll second rockdoc's observation: If shorty has a meltdown over being called a doomer, then a good place to start would be to stop BEING a doomer with, if not every one of his posts, certainly the VAST majority of his posts. :!:

Oh, and if he's now going to be wound up over being called stupid, well, that's pretty much his go-to whenever he doesn't have a rational/meaningful come back when his points or lack of facts are criticized, so there's that.

Shorty, believe it or not, objective reality is "a thing". Incessantly ignoring that won't score you credibility points among rational adults.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 26 Oct 2019, 10:55:59

marmico wrote:Armadillo, ETP Bozo (masquerading as central banker Bozo Bedford) and the Cowardly Lion are quite the triumvirate.

The S&P500 is a hair away from a record high, WTI oil is $56 and the Atlanta and New York Q3 GDP nowcasts are 1.7% and 1.9%.

Those pesky facts. They're so persistent. Once again, this thread should be renamed to something rational. Not that this would happen on this site, of course.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 26 Oct 2019, 10:59:19

Yonnipun wrote:When do you think the stock market scam is finally kaputt? I can not wait to see the faces of the bankers when they have to admit that they should have been studied physics instead of econimics.

As though a recession, when it occurs, will be the end of the world. As if the stock market is "a scam." If you can't do better than that, go back to grade school.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 26 Oct 2019, 11:21:57

evilgenius wrote: There is also something coming with money that looks pretty scary, if you are a private person. Soon, the maxim "cash is king" may no longer hold, as there may no longer be any cash around to use when plastic won't do. These things could spell doom, or not. They could be answers to problems man has faced for centuries. Just as well, in the wrong hands, they could harm people in ways we've never seen before.

Yes, the world changes. Why should we always believe that THIS time, that spells doom? As you say, various aspects could go either way. The idea that we keep muddling along, but with things different, as always, seems far more likely, given humanity's track record re new technology.

Why is it that THIS time the "scary" re money is so different than what pessimists have been regaling us with since at least the 60's? Really nasty recessions were a "thing" in the 1800's, so it's not like recessions are new, for example.

There's nothing intrinsically valuable about cash money. Paper money has ALWAYS been inflated away over time. It's all about faith. What is the magical event that will prevent plastic money from working? What's the magical event that will prevent gold and silver and gems from working?

Your summary that things could get better or worse seems to sum up the way things have ALWAYS looked, since, say 1300 (based on what I know about world history).

And for one specific example re technology in your previous post:

In the news, serious folks in the automated vehicle area (i.e. NOT ELon Musk) are routinely pushing their time frames for true FSD (full self driving) way back. They acknowledge that the problems associated with reliable FSD are much more difficult than they realized. And when it arrives, if it takes an extra decade or two to be fully built out, so what?

The "threat" of FSD is just one example of advancing technology and jobs that societies around the world are going to have to decide how to deal with. There are a variety of alternatives. The big "problem" is much more likely to be a big fight over how resources are distributed than that devices able to do a hell of a lot of work for us and make us safer is a road to doom. And re fighting over the distribution of resources -- same as it EVER was.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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