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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby StarvingLion » Thu 24 Oct 2019, 11:54:32

I'm going to the local bank and gonna drop my pants and take a shit on their rug and yell:

Here is my collateral for a $1Million loan. You low-life degenerate money printing sluts can then shack up with me while I buy a dozen F-350 7.3L 5MPG gas guzzlers to drive around in circles.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby StarvingLion » Thu 24 Oct 2019, 12:01:24

Now for my latest unbelievable prediction. In a week this will happen:

The New York Fed announced it is increasing its temporary overnight repo operations to $180 billion a day from the current $120 billion

Admit it, you know its going to happen.

Outcast_Searcher: "Hello, is this Bank Runs Anonymous, I'm a DEGENERATE money printing low life. I need your help"
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 24 Oct 2019, 13:16:30

Seven posts in a row! Now don't be bashful Starved, tells us what you really think. Have thought, could think, might think, and didn't think. Concentrate on the last one, if you can?

Fed Injects $134BN In Liquidity, Term Repo Obersubscribed Amid Month-End Liquidity Panic
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-i ... dity-panic

It looks like they are losing it! They are shoveling it into the Good Ship Insolvent with a hay fork, and she's still sinking. World debt only $333 trillion, neutral rate 2.23%, velocity of money 1.36, and only $500,000 per capita in debt, and they lose it? Trump is not going to be happy, Powell must have lost his collection of Green Stamps in a poker game! Where is Mr. Greenspan when we really need him.

Of course, they only had a couple of years remaining anyway, but this is going to make scheduling the all those Coming Depression parties more difficult. Finding good help is getting more and more difficult.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 24 Oct 2019, 15:10:39

With the shitstorm of terrible economic data recently, we may get 1/2 pt cut next week instead of 1/4.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 24 Oct 2019, 15:37:19

Amazon stock is selling off after hours as year-over-year profits fall and holiday outlook dims. It looks like under-employed, overly-indebted Americans are having a harder time going deeper into debt to buy stuff they can't afford. The Fed is going to have do a lot more not QE!

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PS- I hope you are buying gold and silver while it’s still on sale. Keep adding to your preps too.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 24 Oct 2019, 18:50:54

Manufacturing is in contraction (fact)
Service sector in contraction (fact)
GDP heading to zero (1.5 estimates in Q3 and 1% in Q4)
Retail sales falling
Home sales falling
Auto sales falling
Durable goods just fell
Business investment just fell to lowest levels since Trump was elected
CAT earnings just tanked
Boeing earnings just tanked
Amazon earnings just tanked
Ford earnings were bad
GM earnings were bad
FED is pumping in 100 billion per night in the repo market to keeps the banks solvent

More rate cuts coming
Massive QE coming

All this and you still have the fools arguing that things aren’t collapsing. And we are just getting started.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 24 Oct 2019, 22:00:26

Manufacturing is in contraction (fact)


Once again looking at a few months and claiming the world is falling apart. According to longer-term manufacturing there is nothing to worry about here
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GDP heading to zero (1.5 estimates in Q3 and 1% in Q4)


Not according to predictions from the Federal Open Market Committee which is indicating 2.5% for 2nd half of 2019 and 2% for first half of 2020. That compares with similar quarterly changes from 2015 through 2017 and there was no recession then. In fact growth rates in late 2012 were ~ 0.5% followed by a strong 5% change in early 2013.

Retail sales falling


There have been 7 straight months of increases so a one month decrease is not surprising given the trade uncertainty. January 2019 was much more negative (-2.0 versus -0.3 for September) and sales bounced right back up the next month. Retail sales bounce back and forth a lot on a monthly basis each year.

Home sales falling


At $5.38 million home sales in September are higher than they were in March, April, May and June of 2019 and they were 10% lower in January 2019. They rise and fall on a monthly basis as well with May being at $5.36 MM and June being at $5.29 MM followed by a rise in July to $5.42 MM.

Durable goods just fell


One page back in this thread I posted the short term (a few months) and longer-term durable goods orders in graphic format. The recent drop is miniscule in the general up and down that is recorded on an annual basis.

Business investment just fell to lowest levels since Trump was elected


This is actually measured by durable goods orders but nice try at double dipping

CAT earnings just tanked


They didn’t “tank”, revenues were down 5% year on year due to inventory reductions as a consequence of trade and economic uncertainties. Actual profit per share was down by 7%. Tanking means something else entirely…I suggest you stay out of the market.

Boeing earnings just tanked


All to do with 737 MAX deliveries resulting in a drop of 20% in revenues. That has nothing to do with the economy (the aircraft failure is unrelated to economic pressures) as they are still waiting on all the necessary approval elements in order to return to full production.

Amazon earnings just tanked


Based on analysts expectations (which are almost always wrong) versus actual results for the quarter and forward guidance. According to Amazon revenues grew by 24% but guidance for the fourth quarter is down to $80 billion from $86.5 billion (expected by analysts) and a large part of that is not consumer sales related but due to declining sales in Amazon Web Services. It is likely that AWS is facing stiff completion from other cloud services in what is now becoming a saturated market resulting in a continuous drop in AWS revenues.

Ford earnings were bad


Need to look at the actual third quarter report as it points out much of this is non-cash and one off adjustments partly a product of corporate restructuring. Company adusted EBIT was 1.8 billion versus 1.7 billion for the same period in 2018, adjusted free cash flow was up 0.2 billion versus 0.1 billion for the same period in 2018 and adjusted earnings per share were up 34 cents versus 29 cents in 2018.

GM earnings were bad


Well that’s interesting given that they don’t report third quarter results until Tuesday Oct 29th. So you must be clairvoyant. :roll: They did already report total vehicle deliveries which increased by 6.3% year on year for the third quarter.

FED is pumping in 100 billion per night in the repo market to keeps the banks solvent


OK which banks have actually declared they have solvency problems? As I pointed out up thread the recent uptick in the balance sheet is a long, long way from where it was in early 2018 which could simply mean they have decided the tightening was too quick and to too great a level (which is what the Fed has said essentially).
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 24 Oct 2019, 22:19:05

You can try to spin it any way you want, but it’s not going to change what’s happening. Everything is heading down if you like it or not. Sit back and keep watching.

Another rate cut next week
Massive QE
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Cog » Fri 25 Oct 2019, 03:59:58

Good price point to buy some more Ford stock is what I'm getting out of yesterday's news.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 25 Oct 2019, 07:32:17

"In Every Market Shock Since 2013 Central Banks Have Stepped In To Protect Markets" - BofA


No, really?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 25 Oct 2019, 07:46:38

Subprime Auto Giant’s Loans Souring at Fastest Clip Since 2008 “The percentage of borrowers behind on their loans climbed to 14.5% from 13.8% a year earlier for the loans the company collects payments on” Can I point our we’re not technically in recession?


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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 25 Oct 2019, 08:39:02

Once again looking at a few months and claiming the world is falling apart.


There are, at this moment, mass riots, and protests occurring in 19 countries around the world. Almost exclusively the result of deteriorating economic conditions. That's called "fell" apart.

Even though the FED is pumping massive quantities of new money into the system the markets are going nowhere! At its present rate of improvement the S&P will reach 3,100 with another $100 trillion of counterfeit currency injections! At which point the monetary/ financial system will have long since followed the Dodo bird into extinction. The best that can be done at this point is to temporarily keep the US economy from completely collapsing. The rest of the world is not even doing that well. With the debt headed on an exponential path to the stratosphere temporary means "temporary"

"Temporary"; Antonym; permanent; Definition: for a very short time, not lasting. Synonym: "we are FUBARed".

Get over it, and face the music. It's a nice funeral dirge. Lend a hand; got any suggestions on new dog stew recipes? With their pigs all dead, and their economy in tatters the Chinese are working on some good ones. All of this can only be expected at the end of the oil age.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Cog » Fri 25 Oct 2019, 09:12:05

I missed the absolute low of Ford stock from yesterday but picked up another 500 shares at $8.70/share. Most analysts put the stock price value of Ford at $11/share and some analysts at $12. I guess we will see.

ATT stock is still a buy and has been steadily rising from January 2019. Both Ford and ATT pay consistently high dividends in the 5-7% range. Hard to lose money on them.

But hey, if the doomers say we are headed for a crash, who am I to argue with their success so far in predictions. LOL
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 25 Oct 2019, 09:41:32

You can try to spin it any way you want, but it’s not going to change what’s happening. Everything is heading down if you like it or no


perhaps instead of cherry picking the third quarter losers you might instead look at the third quarter winners (here are just a few positives)

US weekly jobless claims unexpectedly fell last week (there has never been a recession without a substantial increase in unemployment)

GM strike pushed US factory output down 0.5% in September (telling us there are other reasons that companies bottom lines can be impacted other than the economy)

Verizon reported a quarterly profit of $1.25 per share a penny a share above estimates with revenue coming in above Wall Street forecasts

Intel beat estimates by 18 cents a share. Revenues were above forecasts and it raised its full-year revenue outlook

Visa reported a third-quarter profit 4 cents per share above estimates with revenue being higher than estimates. Announced a 20% dividend increase

Alaska Air beat analyst forecasts by 11 cents a share

Dicks Sporting Goods which has a later reporting period announced in late August it’s second-quarter results which surpassed all market estimates for revenue and earnings with seven new stores set to open before year-end.

Lougheed Martin reported net earnings 9% higher than for the same period in 2018. Increased the quarterly dividend and increased share repurchase program.

Aflac (the insurance company with the duck add) reported EPS at $1.16 versus $1.07 analyst estimates

American Airlines reported EPS of $1.42 versus $1.39 analyst estimates

Alaska Air reported EPS of $2.63 versus $2.52 analyst estimates

First American Financial reported EPS of $1.64 versus analyst estimates of $1.44

there is a good article in Financial Post which talks about the dangers of being too negative with regards to the market (ie. you stand a good chance of losing a lot of money)

https://business.financialpost.com/investing/investing-pro/things-are-looking-gloomy-for-investors-but-what-if-all-that-gloom-is-just-a-passing-cloud

Has sentiment ever been so negative when markets have been so buoyant? Surely, something has got to give, right? And given the indicators flashing yellow or red lately, it’s safe to assume that the stock market is due for a comeuppance.

The thing, though, is this: “safe” doesn’t always turn out to be right. As much as there looks to be plenty of downside risk to equities, investors might want to be careful not to overreact to data or news and abandon equities altogether.



And yet, it’s also reasonable to note the counterbalances to the gloom in this case. One is that employment and consumer spending (supported by low interest rates) remain very strong — and consumers account for about two-thirds of U.S. GDP. Another is that manufacturing now represents barely more than 10 per cent of U.S. economic activity. Manufacturing companies, however, represent more than 40 per cent of the S&P 500’s market capitalization, which helps to explain the post-PMI swoon in a way that doesn’t suggest widespread fear so much as tactical reallocations.

The point is, with so much uncertainty, downside risk might be getting too much play, and that might lead some investors to ignore upside risk.

So where’s the upside? Easy money. Low, low rates. Central bankers who will do anything to forestall a recession.

The continuing low-to-lower interest rate environment could do a few positive things for equity valuations. One is that as much as policy-watchers worry that central banks are pushing on a rope in hopes of stimulating economic activity, in the end it just might work. Monetary stimulus typically takes a while to kick in; it’s possible we’re just in the lag phase now, and come this time next year we’ll be talking about an earnings rebound rather than an earnings recession.



Compare all that negativity with just the dividend yield of the S&P 500 — it’s almost two per cent, and it’s higher than the yield on a 20-year U.S. Treasury. In fact, low rates put a premium on dividend-paying equities, and many of those are blue chip companies in defensive sectors. So they might provide a hedge against a downturn while offering exposure to the upside in terms of yield. And on the earnings side, low rates support higher stock valuations — historically, anyway.

Of course, the global economy could still go completely pear-shaped and everyone will lose. But we don’t know what we don’t know. Even though things look gloomy, investors might regret it if they completely run for cover — the gloom might turn out to be a passing cloud
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Cog » Fri 25 Oct 2019, 10:11:04

If one relied on such doomers like Zerohedge for financial investing advice in the 2007-2009 time frame, one would have locked in your losses and sold everything and hid your money under a mattress. But instead had you bought practically any stock during the lows of the recession, you would have quadrupled your money.

But of course doomers would say it was all government manipulation. Of course there was but from the investor standpoint its about making money and not losing it.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 25 Oct 2019, 10:35:10

Central Bank Hints At A "Big Reset" And Reveals A Possible Solution
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/centr ... e-solution
In article published by the De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB), or Dutch Central Bank, has shocked many with its claim that “if the system collapses, the gold stock can serve as a basis to build it up again. Gold bolsters confidence in the stability of the central bank’s balance sheet and creates a sense of security.”


After a part of the international banking system states the words “if the system collapses”, the obvious question to ask is:

Do they think the system will actually collapse?


Unfortunately gold will not power an economy that is dying from energy starvation. Depletion is cutting drastically into fossil fuels ability to power the economy. There are solutions, but unfortunately there is no political will to exercise them. The problem has not yet even been generally recognized. If we wait too long we may find ourselves in a position where we can't even help ourselves. The fossil fuel age is ending, and it will take a lot more than tax breaks for renewables to turn that around. We either face the inevitable, or join the Carrier Pigeon on history's list of failed species.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Cog » Fri 25 Oct 2019, 10:39:48

OH MY GOD. ZEROHEDGE IS PREDICTING THE APOCOLYPSE. RUN FOR THE EXITS FOLKS. THIS TIME ITS FOR REAL!!!!! **

** Unlike the other one thousand times that Zero brain has predicted the end of the world
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby StarvingLion » Fri 25 Oct 2019, 11:20:11

There are solutions


And here it is, The Power is Going OFF in Commifornia and everywhere else... EIX is down 11% today.

Edison International is a public utility holding company based in Rosemead, California

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby StarvingLion » Fri 25 Oct 2019, 11:43:01

Cog, GE, F, and XOM are SOARING today...HAHAHAHAHA...

"Health"Care system is failing and more deindustrialization. Thats the idiots like Cog notion of "Wealth" generation.

Exelon Nuclear electric power generation company continues to drop like a rock.

Ventas, Inc., a real estate investment trust, invests primarily in real estate serving the United States healthcare industry

VTR has gone from $74 to $67 in just 1 month.

Albemarle Corporation is a chemical company with corporate headquarters in Charlotte, North Carolina. It is a specialty chemical manufacturing enterprise. The company employs approximately 5,400 people

ALB stock has gone from $91 to $64 in just 1 year.

Here is Cog's Future Economy in 2023..."I can see food but for some reason by stomach still growls"

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Last edited by StarvingLion on Fri 25 Oct 2019, 11:57:44, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby StarvingLion » Fri 25 Oct 2019, 11:56:21

Cog, look at the "price" of oil is NOT going up as planned. OMG, the crims can't print enough phoney money to even move it at all.

Its only weeks before Cog becomes just another EV Kook waiting for the power to go off.

Apache Corporation is a company engaged in hydrocarbon exploration.

APA stock is down 7% today.
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