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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 16 Oct 2019, 22:08:25

Over 7 million Americans are at least 90 days late on their auto loans according to NY Fed


I've posted this before, but of course you ignored it. According to Equifax data the number of credit card delinquencies has been steadily decreasing since 2010.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 16 Oct 2019, 22:16:50

The Federal Reserve reported the number of borrowers with auto loans more than 90-days delinquent shot up by 1.5 million in the fourth quarter, reaching a total of 7 million - the highest mark ever in absolute numbers, though not as a percentage of the auto-loan market, which has ballooned over the past seven years.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.busine ... -up-2019-3


This is from March. It’s worse now
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 17 Oct 2019, 07:34:21

I've posted this before, but of course you ignored it.


Of course it was ignored; it's an entirely different subject?

The Federal Reserve reported the number of borrowers with auto loans more than 90-days delinquent shot up by 1.5 million in the fourth quarter, reaching a total of 7 million


The auto industry is collapsing all over the world. The Chinese saw a 28% reduction in auto production this year. Manufacturing in general is witnessing a major decline. The slope of the World GDP vs. World Petroleum production curve just reached 1.0 at 35.94 Gb. Increasing oil production is not going to pull us out of this one! World GDP will be heading down, and the credit markets will be following. The credit markets are where central bank actions have no impact. The quality of collateral has now fallen so low that new debt formation is being restricted. The monetary system will begin its great unwind this coming year, if the EIA's, and World Bank's data are correct.

There has already been a major disruption in the Repo market. Leveraged Loans, and the BBB rated bond market are up next. Then it will be the massively under funded pensions that implode once all liquidity has vanished. The equity markets will see a massacre. The central banks are pumping money into a Debt Black Hole.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 17 Oct 2019, 10:09:27

Of course it was ignored; it's an entirely different subject?


How is it a different subject? Household debt is household debt. If you can’t afford to pay off your car loan it is almost certain you aren’t paying off your credit card either. And household debt in the US is not as bad a story as you would like everyone to believe.

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real household debt is much lower than it was just a few years ago

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and debt to disposable income is much lower than it was

The auto industry is collapsing all over the world.


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auto sales are at levels comparable with the last decade or so, nothing to see he

Manufacturing in general is witnessing a major decline.


New orders for durable goods continue to be relatively strong historically
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and real output from the manufacturing sector also is historically strong

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and if manufacturing is cratering you would expect there to be increasing unemployment in that area but in fact, unemployment in the manufacturing sector is lower than overall unemployment in the US which itself is at all-time lows.

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 17 Oct 2019, 10:31:47

Fed Injects $104.2BN Via Overnight, Term Repos One Day After Start Of "Not A QE" | Zero Hedge
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 17 Oct 2019, 10:47:47

Fed Injects $104.2BN Via Overnight, Term Repos One Day After Start Of "Not A QE"

One day after the repo market appeared to lock up again, when the Fed's overnight repo operation was unexpectedly oversubscribed again, for the first time since September 25, moments ago - and one day after the Fed's first "NOT A QE" Pomo in which the Fed bought $7.5BN in a 4.3x oversubscribed open-market liquidity injecting operation - the Fed announced it had accepted over $104 billion in collateral as part of today's overnight and term repo operations


... the repo rate was still abnormally above fed funds as repo market remains broken and banks refuse to lend to each other.


The needed quality collateral remaining is no longer adequate to compensate for the exponentially growing debt. The ending of the oil age will be a bankruptcy proceedings.


Massive inventory build, and rig count has fallen again. The DOE is reporting increased US production. One may want to ask where this oil is coming from? They must be running with chokes full open. Apparently they don't plan on being in business for much longer.

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby StarvingLion » Thu 17 Oct 2019, 11:23:05

People, I have more tragic news to dispense:

The IBM Corporation is Dead.

IBM Stock is down 7% today.

M&T Bank Corporation is an American bank holding company headquartered in Buffalo, New York. It operates 780 branches in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, Virginia, West Virginia, Washington, D.C., and Connecticut. M&T is ranked 467th on the Fortune 50.

The Banking "System" is FAILING. MTB stock is down 6% today.

Concho Resources Inc. is a company engaged in hydrocarbon exploration. It is organized in Delaware and headquartered in Midland, Texas

CXO stock is down 3% today. Its gone from $120 to $62 is just 6 months.

Textron Inc. is an American industrial conglomerate based in Providence, Rhode Island. Textron's subsidiaries include Arctic Cat, Bell Helicopter, Textron Aviation, and Lycoming Engines

Forget ever flying Cessna 172's, snowmobiles, or pretty anything at all. Its all over. TXT stock is down 5% today. Its gone from $65 to $47 in just 1 year.

The "Price" of Oil is failing again. EOG is collapsing. The "Shale" "Oil" "Industry" was a massive fraud. There never was much oil to begin with. The stock chart of GE confirms it.

The US $ is totally collapsing while the price of oil is still falling.

The Buzzards are flying above awaiting your imminent DEATHS.

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby StarvingLion » Thu 17 Oct 2019, 11:39:28

The F-35 Flop is Failing. Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman stocks are collapsing.

The dimwit CEO's could discover a Real Physics Genius in StarvingLion who could provide them with this:

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but they are too stupid...Even Dumber than Cog. Imagine.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Yoshua » Thu 17 Oct 2019, 12:21:57

Industrial production ex. energy and autos are at depressed levels.

Industrial production went into contraction 0.9 % YoY in September.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EHFgDydXUAA ... ame=medium
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 17 Oct 2019, 12:29:15

Industrial production ex. energy and autos are at depressed levels.

Industrial production went into contraction 0.9 % YoY in September.


here is the FRED take on that :

overall it is up considerably over the past few years but seems to have plateaued.

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The Industrial Production Index (INDPRO) is an economic indicator that measures real output for all facilities located in the United States manufacturing, mining, and electric, and gas utilities (excluding those in U.S. territories)
Since 1997, the Industrial Production Index has been determined from 312 individual series based on the 2007 North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS) codes. These individual series are classified in two ways market groups and industry groups. The Board of Governors defines markets groups as products (aggregates of final products) and materials (inputs used in the manufacture of products). Consumer goods and business equipment can be examples of market groups. "Industry groups are defined as three digit NAICS industries and aggregates of these industries such as durable and nondurable manufacturing, mining, and utilities."
The index is compiled on a monthly basis to bring attention to short- term changes in industrial production,. It measures movements in production output and highlights structural developments in the economy. Growth in the production index from month to month is an indicator of growth in the industry.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 17 Oct 2019, 14:42:47

The CASS freight index has been down for 10 months in a row. That alone is almost uneqivalently a sign of a coming recession. Mining fell by 2.56% in one month, reflecting a major slow down in oil and gas exploration. If the FED reduces rates by 0.5% at the next FOMC meeting they will be broadcasting the next upcoming depression.

In the 101-year history of Industrial Production, that reflects a record 142 consecutive months of economic non-expansion, as measured by the Federal Reserve Board’s monthly surveying.

http://www.shadowstats.com/

The slope of the oil production vs GDP curve has reached 1.0. This is the first time that has happened in 161 years! GDP is now in permanent contraction. The energy delivery of petroleum per pound has fallen to somewhere just above that of green oak. If we weren't consuming our existing assets at a frantic pace, the wheels would have already have fallen off. World debt growth of $48 trillion a year testifies to it.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Cog » Thu 17 Oct 2019, 15:37:46

Yep the market was up again and doomers are out in force to tell us investors how horrible it is that we are making money. Oh woe is us. This 10 part thread makes me laugh every day it's updated. Thanks for the humour guys.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 17 Oct 2019, 16:07:25

This 10 part thread makes me laugh every day it's updated.


and eventually one day we will have a recession just like we have had numerous times in the past and that will be the point when they all come out and say ...."we told you so"...."just as I predicted" and other nonsense. Broken clock syndrome at it's best.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 17 Oct 2019, 16:16:06

The entire system is breaking down. The FED is bailing out banks with massive amounts of money on a nightly basis and buying treasuries like never before and you guys are acting like nothing is happening?

Rates are going to zero and QE to infinity is all they can do at this point.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 17 Oct 2019, 16:33:56

IMF fears the world's financial system is even more destructive than in 2008

The International Monetary Fund has presented us with a Gothic horror show. The world’s financial system is more stretched, unstable, and dangerous than it was on the eve of the Lehman crisis.

Quantitative easing, zero interest rates, and financial repression across the board have pushed investors - and in the case of pension funds or life insurers, actually forced them - into taking on ever more risk. We have created a monster.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... tive-2008/
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 17 Oct 2019, 19:17:32

Soft data getting obliterated everywhere.

This time was a business barometer in Chicago area.

Now contracting to levels only seen during bear markets & recessions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 17 Oct 2019, 21:41:20

shortonoil wrote:The CASS freight index has been down for 10 months in a row. That alone is almost uneqivalently a sign of a coming recession. Mining fell by 2.56% in one month, reflecting a major slow down in oil and gas exploration. If the FED reduces rates by 0.5% at the next FOMC meeting they will be broadcasting the next upcoming depression.

In the 101-year history of Industrial Production, that reflects a record 142 consecutive months of economic non-expansion, as measured by the Federal Reserve Board’s monthly surveying.

http://www.shadowstats.com/

The slope of the oil production vs GDP curve has reached 1.0. This is the first time that has happened in 161 years! GDP is now in permanent contraction. The energy delivery of petroleum per pound has fallen to somewhere just above that of green oak. If we weren't consuming our existing assets at a frantic pace, the wheels would have already have fallen off. World debt growth of $48 trillion a year testifies to it.

Of course. When facts aren't on your side, make stuff up. When you have to use shadowstats lunacy and claim 142 months of non expansion, when there's been a global GDP expansion trend for the past 120 plus months, loony and clueless doesn't begin to describe it. But coming from you, it's quite normal.

And meanwhile, in the real world, with energy consuming devices like cars and computers and light bulbs and furnaces and on and on and on getting more and more efficient, oil, which is roughly the same as it's been for a hundred years once blended, produces MORE work per unit than ever. (Almost everyone with a little education uses bbls for oil, why are you using pounds?)

Not that your nonsense deals in anything resembling the real world. Only retarded doomer fantasies that can't be backed up by credible facts or logic.

We may well have a recession, by the way. Which is no big deal. Same as it ever was.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 17 Oct 2019, 21:48:50

shortonoil wrote:
I've posted this before, but of course you ignored it.


Of course it was ignored; it's an entirely different subject?


You not even understanding what the subject is, is quite consistent with your ignorance re economics demonstrated by your posts over time.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Yonnipun » Fri 18 Oct 2019, 04:37:29

I will never invest my money. Yes , you can make some short term money when you already have millions but for ordinary people it is pointless. Let me give you an example. Our country decided 17 years ago that it is a good idea for people to start saving money for pensions and they even made it compulsory for people born after 1983 to start collecting it. 2% from the paycheck went to the pension fund that was administrated by private banks. The state also added 4% from their side from taxes( actually by the account of current pensioners). And now 17 years later they are going to tear that system down and make it optional because the efficiency and productivity of those funds are cleary negative. Those people who did not join with this stupidity have now bigger pensions than those who joined. I myself did not join because I aready browsed tpeakoil etc back then , and knew that eventually all of this shit is going down one day. Collecting money for the future is just stupid.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 18 Oct 2019, 07:53:33

IMF fears the world's financial system is even more destructive than in 2008


The IMF has figured out how to read its own graph. Revelation!! In 2008 world debt was $64 trillion; in 2020 it is $341 trillion. But they aren't going to say the numbers; it might spook the sheep.

Collecting money for the future is just stupid.


As the debt grows the interest rate must go down, or the debt can not be serviced. Since debt begots debt, if you saved $1 today you would have less than $1 in the future. The difference pays the salaries of the people who figured this all out to begin with. After working all of your life you will get a free cardboard box to live in; so stop complaining.

Those people who did not join with this stupidity have now bigger pensions than those who joined.


Now the government has to figure out how to get that! That's Plan B, and the FED is working on it. They are going to create more debt.

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