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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 13 Oct 2019, 18:26:57

Source please.

But I also have to note that the US Navy has not been a paragon of professionalism the last decade or two.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Cog » Sun 13 Oct 2019, 19:12:45

No alien has ever taken over control of a land based missile. Jeez the concept is ludicrous and exposes the poster has no clue of how launch systems work. I could explain hard wired systems but it would be pointless and Yoshua would just accuse me of being part of the cover up.

I seriously think we have mentally ill people posting on this site as part of their thetapy.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 13 Oct 2019, 20:22:06

Central Bank Issues Stunning Warning: "If The Entire System Collapses, Gold Will Be Needed To Start Over"

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/centr ... ent_stream

Duh
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 13 Oct 2019, 22:38:37

Central Bank Issues Stunning Warning: "If The Entire System Collapses, Gold Will Be Needed To Start Over"


this is a statement from the Dutch bank where this claim comes from:

Shares, bonds and other securities are not without risk, and prices can go down. But a bar of gold retains its value, even in times of crisis. That is why central banks, including DNB, have traditionally held considerable amounts of gold. Gold is the perfect piggy bank – it's the anchor of trust for the financial system. If the system collapses, the gold stock can serve as a basis to build it up again. Gold bolsters confidence in the stability of the central bank's balance sheet and creates a sense of security.


Yeah right, always retains it’s value? Tell that to someone who bought an ounce of gold in 2011 for $1889.70 and saw it go down to $1100 in 2016, currently they are still 31% in the hole from the high. Gold trades...it is not a static priced commodity and as a consequence it has risks.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Yoshua » Mon 14 Oct 2019, 00:39:39

I don't care about government cover ups...but I do hope they make sure that officers who control nuclear missiles are mentally healthy.

This is a story from one of those officers.

https://www.wanttoknow.info/ufos/robert_salas_ufo
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 14 Oct 2019, 01:01:36

shortonoil wrote:
UFOs that sing arias? Why not?

Of course, they were all seen and written by dirt farming, stupid troglodytes of the day with vivid imaginations. Who are you gong to believe all those lying eyes, or the government?


Still backing the troglodytes. Who could have known? How good is their singing? Must be a genetic propensity?

And, all those military officers are snorting aviation fuel? Do they also sing? To even sugget that someone has a better energy source than Exxon, is out right treason.

Take your meds. You seem to be tracking reality even worse than Starving Lion.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Yoshua » Mon 14 Oct 2019, 02:00:18

U.S navy confirms videos depict Unidentified Aerial Phenomena.

https://www.theblackvault.com/documenta ... c-release/
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Yoshua » Mon 14 Oct 2019, 05:59:15

"China Wants More Talks Before Signing Trump’s Phase 1 Deal"

They can't agree on anything. Well...neither can we on this site.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 14 Oct 2019, 07:17:50

Yoshua wrote:"China Wants More Talks Before Signing Trump’s Phase 1 Deal"

They can't agree on anything. Well...neither can we on this site.



Thats great news for the stock market. Trump can keep tweeting fake deals and all the morons will keep believing him.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 14 Oct 2019, 10:31:25

"China Wants More Talks Before Signing Trump’s Phase 1 Deal"

They can't agree on anything. Well...neither can we on this site.


They probably never have been talking to each other; they just sit around all day, and text each other on their cell phones. Like the rest of the government, an ongoing two sentence dialog doesn't produce much in the way of productive action. There might not even be anyone remaining with enough social skills to come to any kind of an agreement? Then again it might also just be about theatrics so the sheep don't notice that the oil age is ending, and the monetary system is on the verge of collapse. Between Britex, China, and the Middle East it looks like a well choreographed version of the soap opera "As the Days Turn", with a side show of "It takes a fool" thrown in for good measure.

Is Washington using it to keep Wall Street dreaming about the next trade where it can make 20¢? Is China using it to blame the Americans for there being no jobs, and why pork cost $37 a pound? Politics is like everything thing else at the end of the oil age. Someplace where they can pretend to be doing something that wouldn't make any difference even if they were!

If anyone actually believes at this stage that anything can be fixed; they took the wrong pill!

Lagarde's Looming Problem: ECB Has 1 Year Of German Debt To Buy Before Hitting A Brick Wall
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/ecb-ha ... ing-limits

With no growth the existing debt grows until it becomes unserviceable, and its service cost overwhelms the system. A point is reached were it becomes impossible to create additional debt! The central banks keep pretending that they can overcome what is mathematically impossible to accomplish.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Yoshua » Mon 14 Oct 2019, 13:37:26

Tomorrow (not) QE starts and everything is (not) fine and the stock market is (not) exited.

Obviously the government knows (not) what is best for us all.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 14 Oct 2019, 14:23:41

Tomorrow (not) QE starts and everything is (not) fine and the stock market is (not) exited.


Morgan Stanley is saying that the market is now at a peak, and will head downward from here. That may be true? Earnings are looking to get weaker, and stock buy backs will be constrained. With Leveraged Loans now playing the part of 2008 MBS it is really anyone's call. The market still prices in that the central banks can affect the equity and bond markets. The only power the central banks have, at this point, is to affect them negatively. With a neutral interest rate of 2.3% they don't have much clot remaining. It took almost 5 points to get us out of the last recession. In 2018 it took $7.17 of new debt to generate $1 in additional GDP. The S&P advanced about 1 point? Looking at the debt curve, 2019 will be worse; ad infinitium. The central banks have lost their mojo.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 14 Oct 2019, 15:19:32

The latest from Cass Freight “With -3.4% drop in Sept, following -3.0% drop in Aug, -5.9% drop in Jul, -5.3% drop in Jul & - 6.0% drop in May, we repeat from previous 4 months: the shipments index has gone from “warning of potential slowdown” to “signaling economic contraction.”

Cass: “Bottom line..More & more data are indicating that this is the beginning of an economic contraction.”
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 14 Oct 2019, 15:35:50

Yoshua wrote:Tomorrow (not) QE starts and everything is (not) fine and the stock market is (not) exited.

Obviously the government knows (not) what is best for us all.



Massive money printing is coming
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 14 Oct 2019, 18:38:57

Consumer Sentiment Spread at 20 yr Low Indicates Recession - the spread between the U of Mich sentiment survey and the Conference Bd, last seen in 2000. Will this drop in consumer sentiment drive falling retail sales?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby EdwinSm » Tue 15 Oct 2019, 03:58:01

Arm...I see that you are quoting the year on year changes for the Cass index. Yes, the index is down from last year, but UP from 2016 and 2017.

This page from Cass itself https://www.cassinfo.com/freight-audit-payment/cass-transportation-indexes/cass-freight-index has the month-on-month number of shipments up, but the expenditure flat.

I notice that the full report (pdf download, from the above link) talks of the year-on-year data, and it is therefore a very negative report. Along the lines of...
We know that freight flows are a leading indicator, so by definition there is a lag between what they are predicting and when the outcome is reported. Nevertheless, we see a growing risk that GDP will go negative by year’s end.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Yoshua » Tue 15 Oct 2019, 07:59:48

When the Fed did QE after the GFC oil prices recovered and stayed around USD 100 until the Fed ended QE.

Today oil is around USD 50 as the Fed returns to do (not) QE. Will Fed's (not) QE raise oil and commodity prices again? Can the Fed do that heavy lifting again?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby marmico » Tue 15 Oct 2019, 08:09:24

The Cass Freight Index: Shipments is a nothingburger.

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Yoshua » Tue 15 Oct 2019, 08:17:35

The FOMC has tried to help insure against the downside risk to the U.S. economy by dramatically altering the path of monetary policy during 2019, Bullard says.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 15 Oct 2019, 10:59:49

Not Transitory - Fed Liquidity Handout Surges To Near $90 Billion
So much for the 'transitory' liquidity shortage arguments put forth by commission-takers and asset-gatherers, The NYFed accepted $87.7 billion (in o/n and term) repo today - the highest level yet.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/not-t ... 90-billion

The situation is deteriorating rapidly.

We know that freight flows are a leading indicator, so by definition there is a lag between what they are predicting and when the outcome is reported. Nevertheless, we see a growing risk that GDP will go negative by year’s end.


With debt leverage in the system now at 41:1; $1 dollar for debt service is supporting $41 in debt, any decline in GDP will produce an avalanche of defaults in the world's $331 trillion debt market.

Massive money printing is coming


Helicopter money is the last trick in the CB's play book. It will destroy the financial system in short order. Helicopter money represents the situation were the system can no longer absorb additional debt, and the monetary system's role as an indicator of the economy's status has come to an end. It will be the point where the velocity of money falls rapidly toward 1.0, and economic activity ceases. It will be the last gambit of the CB just before the final crash. No reboot will occur because the amount of energy that will be needed to power up a failed economy will not be available. The rate of debt accumulation, the falling velocity of money, declining interest rates, the clustering of historical indices, and the energy equations point to that time as being very close at hand.

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