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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 12 Oct 2019, 12:07:28

StarvingLion wrote:lOOK OUT BELOW.... EIX stock has been in Total Collapse Mode in the past 5 days...from $76 to $71...Thats Commifornia!

Edison International is a public utility holding company based in Rosemead, California. Its subsidiaries include Southern California Edison, and unregulated non-utility business assets Edison Energy.

Very good. Cherry picking as good as armageddon's. And just as meaningful re the title of this thread. :roll:

As long as you folks are around, Shirley Temple drinkers don't need to worry about supplies.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 12 Oct 2019, 12:17:33

Are you EVER going to talk about finances in context and think about proportions re the overall economy? Re things like the size of the economy, assets vs. debts, etc? Or is that too difficult? Or doesn't that tell the story you want to tell? :o


It's a good point. The current US debt to GDP is a bit over 100% I think. What that means is that if all the GDP was spent on eliminating debt it could be done in one year. People often forget how large the US economy is. Debt payments are currently less than 10% of the annual budget which means they are really not significant historically. Comparing this to the average person is important. As an example, I remember a few years back talking with a number of my wife's colleagues who were young up and coming lawyers. On average they were carrying mortgages in excess of $300 K plus other debt. If we surmise their average salary is around $100 K/annum after tax and they hold loans on at least one fancy car then if they converted over all of their post tax income to debt payoff it would take them a little over 3.5 years to pay off the debt. But for most people they can wrap their head around a debt of $380 K whereas a debt of $20 trillion is just something they can't figure out. Perspective is important.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby StarvingLion » Sat 12 Oct 2019, 12:23:31

I just got back from a tour of The "Federal" "Reserves" new headquarters. Wow Man, Pure Weed Man, Money Printin works DUDE! In just 3 years FRN's will become WRN's (Weed Reserve Notes). You'll be able to smoke your own "currency"...Wow Man!!!!

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby StarvingLion » Sat 12 Oct 2019, 12:50:56

Just Admit The Bloody Obvious: THE "SYSTEM" IS COLLAPSING. Cog, the stupid chick at the bank said my occupation of

Flying Saucer Engineer

does not exist. What a fucking dummy. How else can one secure ME Oil without Flying Saucers and Beam Weapons. Jet Engines and Chemical Explosives sure won't do the job. But they're all a bunch OXCART Drivers...thats what they think they are driving.

https://www.aljazeera.com/ajimpact/oil- ... 50928.html

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby evilgenius » Sat 12 Oct 2019, 12:55:10

It's tough to suggest something like a minimum wage hike as a solution because it sounds like I'm asking for a sudden and grandiose reversal to fix a longer term trend. I bring it up to point out something that has slowly been eroding the economic position of working Americans. I don't think the inequality it has engendered can be fixed overnight. That really would spark hyperinflation.

Mind you, true hyperinflation only results from a widespread lack of faith by the people in a currency. Americans have put up with some fairly high interest rate numbers, and called them normal. They are scary, though. I don't mean to suggest acting radically enough to bring those back. I suppose what I'm advocating for is more of a change in philosophical direction that recognizes the importance of working people's wage levels more so than the current take, under which returning value to shareholders as a corporate mantra has caused a narrowing of the range of interests considered by executives of corporations of investors such that now it takes in inordinately a short term timeframe.

Many of these things are very complicated. For me to throw out such suggestions does make it sound like they aren't. It's kind of like how the cost of healthcare has been rising far in excess of the rate of inflation. I can point out that is largely due to the role that pre-tax employee contributions play in that. Employers are incentivized to pay higher premiums over actually paying employees more pre-tax money because they can say that they are giving employees a raise of sorts, without having to pay the employer's portion of taxes upon that raise. I can say that, but there are other issues to do with healthcare beyond that.

Also, the high cost of higher education is largely due to how the government responds to what higher education institutions charge by seemingly automatically increasing the amount available to students through student loans. It becomes a cycle. There is more to that issue as well, but that may be the number one reason for the increases. None of these things can be fixed overnight, without risking some sort of headlong descent into chaos.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby StarvingLion » Sat 12 Oct 2019, 12:59:27

In just 3 years time, Outcast_Searcher, will go from HEV to OCV. Here he is driving the 2023 Premium Model:

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Pops » Sat 12 Oct 2019, 17:51:32

evilgenius wrote: the importance of working people's wage levels more so than the current take, under which returning value to shareholders

Frankly I think this is how many would vote, I think many thought they were doing exactly that in the last POTUS election when they voted for trump. They voted for Obama and got a wall street bailout... then voted for trump and got a wall street got a tax break.

kind of like how the cost of healthcare has been rising far in excess of the rate of inflation.

In the US medicine is free-market & for-profit
In a free market, price will rise until supply balances demand
Thing is, when it comes to living and dying, demand is unlimited
so there is no cap on demand, no cap on price.

automatically increasing the amount available to students through student loans

So don't give loans, grants, etc, simply provided public education to anyone who can do the work.
We spend $69B now grants, etc now, we could pay all public tuition for $40B. (2014)
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 12 Oct 2019, 18:10:56

I suppose what I'm advocating for is more of a change in philosophical direction that recognizes the importance of working people's wage levels more so than the current take, under which returning value to shareholders as a corporate mantra has caused a narrowing of the range of interests considered by executives of corporations of investors such that now it takes in inordinately a short term timeframe.


One has to look at this from both sides of the equation. There seems to be some view out there that the management in corporations make out like bandits all the time and the workers get paid peanuts, that has not been my experience nor my observation. In very large companies the Senior executive are well compensated but in return they bring to the table years of experience, education, business sense as well as the people skills to get things done. There are few of them but many, many employees in the company. If everyone was paid the same the majority would just "show up" as there is no incentive to perform. Those that do perform need to be rewarded and as such you have tiered salaries in these corporations. Employees are generally fairly well compensated in these large organizations with many receiving medical and dental benefits, parking, scholarships for children etc. For large companies these aren't some sort of scam as suggested but are necessary to compete with other companies and the fact they are calculated as a pre-tax benefit to the employee is the governments edict. At the same time it does allow the employer to claim costs against taxes which helps keep these incentives in place. For small companies my observation is there is little in the way of salary difference between management and employees. In some cases you will see employees with a higher salary as management often takes their compensation in shares or options.
It's all well and good to say....oh take from the management and give to the employees but then you will see management just go somewhere else as there is no incentive for them and employees will, as I said above, just show up. The system has evolved the way it has in order to be the most successful. If you chase away the incentives for being in charge then those management teams aren't going to be there, the investment banks who finance the company aren't going to be there as they want a top notch management team in place and the major investors/owners/founders aren't going to even bother because there is nothing in it for them. The result of that is no company and no employees. In the end nobody wins.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Pops » Sat 12 Oct 2019, 20:02:53

rockdoc123 wrote:One has to look at this from both sides of the equation. There seems to be some view out there that the management in corporations make out like bandits all the time and the workers get paid peanuts,

Those aren't the sides.
The sides are capital vs everyone else.
Shareholders vs management, workers, customers, environment, society at large, the future.

Who cares what some management flunky makes, they are just as beholden as everyone else, they just don't get overtime.


This reflects my thoughts well, better than I can:
In the recent history of bad ideas, few have had a more pernicious effect than the one that corporations should be managed to maximize "shareholder value."

Indeed, much of what we perceive to be wrong with the American economy these days-the slowing growth and rising inequality, the recurring scandals and wild swings from boom to bust, the inadequate investment in research and development and worker training-has its roots in this misguided ideology.


(warning: content may be unsuitable for some audiences)
.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 12 Oct 2019, 23:30:44

well I read the paper and a pretty good theoretical analysis by someone who has never run a company or been on the board of a publicly traded company. I have, a few times and can state it's wildly incorrect.

Nor does the law require, as many believe, that executives and directors owe a special fiduciary duty to the shareholders who own the corporation. The director's fiduciary duty, in fact, is owed simply to the corporation, which is owned by no one, just as you and I are owned by no one-we are all "persons" in the eyes of the law. Corporations own themselves.


that is not entirely incorrect. There is no "law" stating what the executive or directors fiduciary duties are but there are corporate documents that do. The Board and the Executive are governed by those corporate guidelines as they are approved by the shareholders. So this is just a strawman argument. The Board and the executive are required to serve the shareholder because of the corporation's governance documents. If they don't they can be voted out at a shareholders meeting or sued by the shareholders (which has happened on numerous occasions)

What shareholders possess is a contractual claim to the "residual value" of the corporation once all its other obligations have been satisfied-and even then the directors are given wide latitude to make whatever use of that residual value they choose, just as long as they're not stealing it for themselves.


OK, that's just a load of bunk. The shareholders own all the shares in the corporation, the market capitalization of a corporation is the number of shares times the share price and it is that number that determines the value of a company at a particular point in its history. This person has a strange understanding of how corporations handle budgets, debt etc. All of that affects the overall value of a company and it is that value that determines the share price. A shareholder can decide to sell at any point in time and they are not responsible for whatever debt the company might have acquired other than how the perception of that debt affects the share price. The shareholder's value is based on share price and nothing else.

It is true, of course, that only shareholders have the power to elect the corporate directors. But given that directors are almost always nominated by the management and current board and run unopposed, it requires the peculiar imagination of corporate counsel to leap from the shareholders' power to "elect" directors to a sweeping mandate that directors and the executives must put the interests of shareholders above all others.


Obviously written by someone who has some sort of anti-corporation bent and, once again, has never been involved in a corporation. This isn't what happens at all. Directors are not nominated by management the Chairman of the Board generally is brought in along with several other candidates for that spot by the founders or the CEO of a company as it is forming. The general edict nowadays is that the board must be independent and as a consequence, the Chairman is a non-executive appointment. It is the role of the Chairman to appoint independent directors and the management or executive has zero say in the matter other than the rights for voting they have like any other shareholder (the Chairman proposes appointments to the Board and they are voted on at a shareholders meeting). I've been to some pretty contentious shareholder meetings and a couple where proposed directors were refused and one where an activist shareholder actually got a different director appointed. It isn't anywhere near as controlled as this person suggests. And he/she seems to disregard how many votes are actually put forward as proxies by non-attending shareholders.

Milton Friedman, the University of Chicago free-market economist, is often credited with first articulating the idea in a 1970 New York Times Magazine essay in which he argued that "there is one and only one social responsibility of business-to use its resources and engage in activities designed to increase its profits." Anything else, he argues, is "unadulterated socialism."


Like everyone else of my generation who studied some economics at University, we learned from Friedman's text and my best friend ended up being one of his graduate students. What he says is exactly what drives corporations. That is why people invest in companies. If you have no intention of increasing their value and intend instead of doing whatever the hell you want why would they invest? The answer is simple....they wouldn't. There are obviously rogue elements out there that try to feather their own nests but that is a very small minority amongst corporations, there are just too many controls. In the era of whistleblowers and numerous independent audits, this happens very infrequently. But folks think it happens all the time because it is the only time they see something in the press (when was the last time a paper reported on a company doing everything right and being good guys?).
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Yoshua » Sun 13 Oct 2019, 02:34:05

The world is now post peak oil. Post peak oil there is no organic growth. Without organic growth there is no organic credit/debt growth. The central banks are forced to do "organic" money printing (QE, Not QE) to expand the credit/debt bubble.

The Fed is now doing permanent repo operations and will start buying treasuries at a rate of USD 60 Billion a month starting 15th October.

The U.S government has been doing fiscal stimulus and will continue to so by borrowing more money.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Yoshua » Sun 13 Oct 2019, 03:12:01

The U.S navy is now the funkiest entity on this planet. They got a patent on a UFO like ship that in theory could do some funky stuff if it was powered by a nuclear reactor. Now they are seeking patent on a compact fussion reactor.

The navy has also officially declared that the three UFO videos posted by the New York Times show Unidentified Arial Phenomena.

The navy also stated that the videos have not been cleared for public release, they are still classified Top Secret.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Yoshua » Sun 13 Oct 2019, 04:56:47

German car production has fallen to GFC levels and Deutsche Bank with a USD 50 Trillion derivatives book is losing Billions.

When lay offs begin the German massive housing bubble will pop.

GFC 2:0 and Eurocrisis 2:0 and Refugee Crisis 2:0 as Turkey has started a war against the Kurds is about hit Europe.

With QE, ZIRP and USD 15 Trillion in negative yielding bonds, Europe is a total mess.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EGrErvDWwAI ... name=large
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 13 Oct 2019, 08:33:21

The navy also stated that the videos have not been cleared for public release, they are still classified Top Secret.


Now why would they want to do something like that? Since WWII over 1,000 US and British military officers have witnessed, and reported some type of unidentified aircraft that exhibited extraordinary capabilities. Either the entire military officer corp has gone batshit crazy, or something is there? What it is we still are not supposed to have a clue, but you are not supposed to know that there is absolutely nothing the military can do about it! This is all classified to protect you! Isn't that so thoughtful of them?

Actually, there is a lot of information about these craft that can be found in newspaper clippings from the 1880's and 1890's. That was before there was a free press? Over 13,000 articles by independent newspapers from all over the country have been located about the sky ships of that period. Often with detailed drawings. Of course, they were all seen and written by dirt farming, stupid troglodytes of the day with vivid imaginations. Who are you gong to believe all those lying eyes, or the government?

Questioning the PTB has historically never been good for your health. Because of the massive implications of these sightings, this one will put you in the loony bin if you dare to question it. Just keep saying to yourself, "there is nothing there", "there is nothing there".
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby evilgenius » Sun 13 Oct 2019, 09:25:51

I don't think that a corporation that considers more than the short term is socialist. You certainly couldn't say that the US car companies under oligopolistic competition were socialist. You could say, however, that they did become unresponsive to the potential threat of reduced barriers to entry by competing foreign car companies. But I'm not sure that a more equitable solution would be managed statically. It's more like the competing voices for direction; higher share price, increased dividends, investment in the future might somehow have their say as and when each became important within the environment. The thing I've been saying about wages might take care of itself, as management realized that was an important thing to pay attention to in order to satisfy those goals. There's no reason a market of sorts can't be the thing that sorts those interests out.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 13 Oct 2019, 12:09:09

Yoshua wrote:
The navy has also officially declared that the three UFO videos posted by the New York Times show Unidentified Arial Phenomena.

UFOs that sing arias? Why not? 8)

(Maybe, sort of like how someone sarcastically using calling someone "genius" looks silly when they can't spell it, if you're going to discuss UFO's re aerial phenomenon, you should be able to spell that.)

OTOH, since when did discussions re doom (like this thread) require credibility by the doom mongers?

Oh, and it must be a slow day re stock market crashes, when the conversation moves to UFO's. I notice how shorty is lapping that up and jumping to claim on the order of a thousand citings, without ANY citations. Gee, another amazing surprise. :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 13 Oct 2019, 12:17:56

shortonoil wrote:Actually, there is a lot of information about these craft that can be found in newspaper clippings from the 1880's and 1890's. That was before there was a free press? Over 13,000 articles by independent newspapers from all over the country have been located about the sky ships of that period. Often with detailed drawings. Of course, they were all seen and written by dirt farming, stupid troglodytes of the day with vivid imaginations. Who are you gong to believe all those lying eyes, or the government?

It was also a lot more common in the past to believe in things like ghosts. Like before modern science was taught in the classroom via public education.

But no doubt, every single "sighting" MUST be from someone who actually saw a UFO, and not someone who was confused by a glare, ambiguous size/distance, or is just making stuff up (a concept you should be VERY familiar with). :roll:

So instead, when I hear my house give a surprisingly large "CRACK" sound at times in the evening, and decide it's got to be from contraction in the cooling air, should we:

1). Presume I'm lying or wrong, and it must really be a ghost? (Because, science dosesn't matter if we want to imagine the weirdest things when we don't understand something. 8) )

2). Presume the person who heard the same kind of thing 150 years ago when religion was often taken a lot more literally, and decided it was a ghost was right?

3). Perhaps, just perhaps, try to think rationally, apply Occam's Razor, etc.

4). Or go with the shorty mentality and "intelligent" wit, and call everyone childish names who doesn't believe UFO's are all over the place? :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 13 Oct 2019, 13:56:37

UFOs that sing arias? Why not?

Of course, they were all seen and written by dirt farming, stupid troglodytes of the day with vivid imaginations. Who are you gong to believe all those lying eyes, or the government?


Still backing the troglodytes. Who could have known? How good is their singing? Must be a genetic propensity?

And, all those military officers are snorting aviation fuel? Do they also sing? To even sugget that someone has a better energy source than Exxon, is out right treason.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 13 Oct 2019, 15:11:17

It seems a lot of economist believe in “the invisible hand” and “infinite growth.” I can get the concept behind the first but the second flies in the face of physics. UFO’s are at least possible, infinite growth is not.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Yoshua » Sun 13 Oct 2019, 15:38:25

I'm not trying to convince anyone about the phenomena.

The U.S navy takes the Unidentified Aerial Phenomena seriously and is trying to remove the stigma about subject among its personal, since the objects operate in restricted military air space.

U.S senators have been briefed about the phenomena by the navy and so has Trump.

The phenomena has appeared above nuclear silos and taken control over the missiles, ready to be launched before they were shut down.
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