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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 03 Oct 2019, 17:22:35

3 rounds of bad economic news today and the DOW goes from -335 to +100?

- Unemployment filings up
- ISM service sector report declines
- factory orders decline

Haha, you can’t make this up.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 04 Oct 2019, 00:38:25

Dow goes down--use it as proof of doom narrative.
Dow goes up--simply shrug your shoulders and say it makes no sense while waiting for dow to go back down.

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 04 Oct 2019, 08:54:17

Still...there isn't much human behaviour can do about the laws of physics and depletion.


There can be no question as to what is taking place. We are nearing the end of the oil age, and the monetary system is on the verge of collapse. The world is burning 36 billion barrels a year, and replacing less than 4. The debt is over $300 trillion and growing exponentially. It is now half a billion dollars per man woman, and child. If depletion doesn't get us, then the debt will; and no one seems to have an answer for either. It appears like everyone is trying to act like there isn't even a question! The debt has grown so gigantic that there is no way to address it. Once the defaults begin they will cascade around the world; then it will all start to shutdown. So, let's just all act stupid, and be surprised when the lights to out!
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby evilgenius » Fri 04 Oct 2019, 09:21:04

I think the place to watch for trouble is the bond market. The yield on the ten year is very low, at under two percent. It's lower than that actually, but to state a figure like 1.53 percent isn't really the point. Something is wrong with rates this low. It means that demand for Treasuries is high enough that investors will take such a low rate. That's all fine, as long as the rate structure doesn't reverse course. If things are so great, unemployment is historically low, then we should expect a reversal at some point, in order to slow the economy down. It would be bad if the Fed found itself constrained, as far as rate increases go, at the time when they are necessary.

This economy is interesting because it has been slow to increase wages. Unemployment this low should result in increased wages. I think that the government's deficit spending plays a large role in this. The money available within the economy, the money supply, includes that as a component. Everybody knew this would happen, as it pretty much had to when whomever took over from Obama. Congress said no to spending under him, with the hopes that they could get the ruling party's candidate into power after Obama left office. Regardless of the person who was elected, we should have expected this level of spending.

The thing you have to ask yourself is, can this economy take over for that level of spending when the time comes? Can economic activity replace that amount of government spending? It's definitely possible, given the current low rate structure. Borrowing is how money is made, so things are positioned well for a switch. There will, however, be a philosophical problem at the Fed, as wages going up will trigger inflation worries. This will take place against a backdrop where huge companies, like Amazon, rule the economy in such a manner as may be dangerous for smaller competitors. That doesn't bode well for increased wages, and may keep the Fed in check, but may not engender the necessary amount of economic activity to sideline deficit spending. And, also, there will be worries about foreign investment. The level of uncertainty over what direction that will take is huge right now.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Yoshua » Fri 04 Oct 2019, 11:11:31

Exxon Mobil has warned that its 3Q revenue will be hurt by the low oil price. But oil prices have been around this level for 5 years. So, what has changed? Exxon moved into the shale oil business...the high hanging fruit... scraping up what's left at the bottom of the barrel.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby StarvingLion » Fri 04 Oct 2019, 11:23:14

Noble Energy, Inc. is a company engaged in hydrocarbon exploration. It is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

NBL stock has gone from $60 to $20 in the past 5 years.

Apache Corporation is a company engaged in hydrocarbon exploration. It is organized in Delaware and headquartered in Houston

APA stock has gone from $80 to $21 in the past 5 years.

I guess they are all waiting for The Right Dynamic as in when the Peasants can afford the REAL price of oil which is never.

Oh, Hewlett-Packard is going bankrupt:

HPQ stock has gone from $27 to $16 in just 1 year.

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby StarvingLion » Fri 04 Oct 2019, 11:38:52

The joke called TSLA is falling again. Its gone from $377 to $230 in 1 year.

When it fails, the entire state of California is toast. Whats left, idiots wearing VR Goggles?

Can't afford Natural Gas. They can't afford anything at all.

San Jose Joins Growing List in California to Ban
Natural Gas in New Buildings
Natural Gas Intelligence·

Is California going bankrupt?

https://www.quora.com/Is-California-going-bankrupt

Yes, in fact it is. Here is why, Oil Production since 2014 is a flipping disaster.:

Image
Last edited by StarvingLion on Fri 04 Oct 2019, 11:49:08, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby StarvingLion » Fri 04 Oct 2019, 11:46:40

Lets all go to New Zealand

New Zealand was voted No.1 for Overall Experience, No. 2 for Family and No.2 Overall in the HSBC Expat Explorer survey of over 22,000 expats in 31 countries.

On second thought here is NZ's oil production in the past 10 years.

Image
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby StarvingLion » Fri 04 Oct 2019, 11:58:53

evilgenius wrote:I think the place to watch for trouble is the bond market. The yield on the ten year is very low, at under two percent. It's lower than that actually, but to state a figure like 1.53 percent isn't really the point. Something is wrong with rates this low. It means that demand for Treasuries is high enough that investors will take such a low rate. That's all fine, as long as the rate structure doesn't reverse course. If things are so great, unemployment is historically low, then we should expect a reversal at some point, in order to slow the economy down. It would be bad if the Fed found itself constrained, as far as rate increases go, at the time when they are necessary.

This economy is interesting because it has been slow to increase wages. Unemployment this low should result in increased wages. I think that the government's deficit spending plays a large role in this. The money available within the economy, the money supply, includes that as a component. Everybody knew this would happen, as it pretty much had to when whomever took over from Obama. Congress said no to spending under him, with the hopes that they could get the ruling party's candidate into power after Obama left office. Regardless of the person who was elected, we should have expected this level of spending.

The thing you have to ask yourself is, can this economy take over for that level of spending when the time comes? Can economic activity replace that amount of government spending? It's definitely possible, given the current low rate structure. Borrowing is how money is made, so things are positioned well for a switch. There will, however, be a philosophical problem at the Fed, as wages going up will trigger inflation worries. This will take place against a backdrop where huge companies, like Amazon, rule the economy in such a manner as may be dangerous for smaller competitors. That doesn't bode well for increased wages, and may keep the Fed in check, but may not engender the necessary amount of economic activity to sideline deficit spending. And, also, there will be worries about foreign investment. The level of uncertainty over what direction that will take is huge right now.


Blah blah blah.

Do you know how to secure oil from NorthCentral Ghawar?

No, you don't. Thats the problem. Everything else is bullshit.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 04 Oct 2019, 12:14:15

September Class 8 Heavy Duty Truck Orders Collapse 71%

Dam son
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 04 Oct 2019, 13:07:44

Armageddon wrote:3 rounds of bad economic news today and the DOW goes from -335 to +100?

- Unemployment filings up
- ISM service sector report declines
- factory orders decline

Haha, you can’t make this up.

Gee, how you spin, as if it's all bad news. Same as it ever was. Wrong as usual.

-- Unemployment at 50 year LOW of 3.5%.

-- Black and Hispanic unemployment rate is at RECORD LOW.

-- Stock Market goes from worry mode to rally mode on Friday (up over 200 points thus far).

Each of the above per CNBC stories today.

But hey, nice cherry picking there managing to catch a negative aspect of employment reports. You definitely belong in the fruit picking industry. /s

...

Overall, re perspective on economic news re the US:

a). Yes, the US continues to look like we MIGHT have a recession in the next year or two.

b). So what?

Again, same as its been since this silly thread where you wrongly claimed scores of "crashes" began.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 04 Oct 2019, 13:18:09

Exxon Mobil has warned that its 3Q revenue will be hurt by the low oil price. But oil prices have been around this level for 5 years. So, what has changed? Exxon moved into the shale oil business...the high hanging fruit... scraping up what's left at the bottom of the barrel.


The cost to produce oil is ever increasing as the total energy to produce it is ever increasing, and energy is not free even for the oil industry. If the price of oil stays constant the oil industry will eventually go out of business. Production cost is not a static condition. In 1960 the Saudi were pumping oil for 25¢ a barrel. The Etp Model tells us that the energy to produce oil is now increasing by 2.1% per year. As the economy can not support higher prices the industry is being squeezed out of existence.

September Class 8 Heavy Duty Truck Orders Collapse 71%


If the stock market was based on the economy that report would hammer it right into the ground. It is not, and the market went up today. The market is completely based on stock buy back, and during the last year 80% of its advances were derived from buy backs. For buy backs to be profitable, and possible it requires very low interest rates, and reasonable corporate earnings. If either one fails the companies that are now buying back their stock will be selling it. That change in corporate behavior should be taking place within a year as the global economy continues to degrade. After that all presumptions of a good economy will be swept away. It will be a complete global rout.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 04 Oct 2019, 13:32:23

shortonoil wrote:
Exxon Mobil has warned that its 3Q revenue will be hurt by the low oil price. But oil prices have been around this level for 5 years. So, what has changed? Exxon moved into the shale oil business...the high hanging fruit... scraping up what's left at the bottom of the barrel.


The cost to produce oil is ever increasing as the total energy to produce it is ever increasing, and energy is not free even for the oil industry.

Instead of endless cherry picking re Exxon Mobil, how about looking at the industry overall?

When the top ten oil companies by revenue had net profits of about $210 BILLION in 2018, doesn't exactly look like insta financial doom, now does it? Oh, and all were solidly profitable.

https://www.oilandgasiq.com/strategy-ma ... -companies

The fact that oil prices don't always go up, or that oil prices impact profits isn't exactly news, now is it? (Hint: that's the case for ALL commodities).

I can't decide whether you or SL are more delusional. Congrats. :roll:

...

I know you can't grasp this re your endless spewing of economic and oil nonsense, but over time, if the oil price must be higher to make the oil industry prices, PRICES WILL RISE, re the forces of supply and demand. Same as it ever was.

Oh, and re your "people can't afford oil" nonsensical yammering, the mid 2010 to mid 2014 period with average oil prices near $100 just proved that isn't an issue. People may grumble, but if they need it, they'll buy it. And good news, more and more choices like HEV's are now available that are convenient, reliable, and burn a hell of a lot gasoline, should the price get high enough to be a real issue. :idea:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Yoshua » Fri 04 Oct 2019, 14:12:08

USA CEO confidence survey has hit recession low. Corporate share buy backs are at record high, while the insiders are selling.

The Fed is in a rate cutting cycle and is now trying to figure out if this is a mild slowdown or a hard landing.

The Fed's Repo operations will continue until at least 4th November.

The Fed said that U.S exports are down becaus of a global slowdown. Sure, even I understand that. But is the U.S an island, isolated from the global downturn?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EF9zXkqXYAE ... me=900x900
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby marmico » Fri 04 Oct 2019, 14:39:17

Today's prints for Q3 2019 GDP:

Atlanta Fed GDPNow: 1.8%
https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

New York Fed Nowcast: 2.0%
https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/nowcast
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 04 Oct 2019, 15:00:29

The Fed said that U.S exports are down becaus of a global slowdown. Sure, even I understand that. But is the U.S an island, isolated from the global downturn?


Is the US insulated? The FED has been baling those dollars back for the last several years. Even though they have been bailing like crazy, it looks like the boat is still half full. US foreign currency supply has hardly changed. The US is still consumer powered! The consumer supply chain is Global. Go Figure! The FED is making a great big wild ass guess here; they may be dead wrong!
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 04 Oct 2019, 15:11:25

Show me a time in history when this has happened at the same time

-record govt debt
-record govt deficits
-record corporate debt
-record consumer debt
-record credit card debt
-record student load debt
- GDP slowing to under 2% and headed to 0
- FED rates at 2% and headed to 0
- Manufacturing in contraction
- service industry near contraction
- most of Europe in recession
- most of Europe at 0% interest rates and lower
- Trucking collapsing


This thing is just getting started. Phase 1 was the 2008 crash. That was halted by ZIRP for a decade, QE 1,2 and 3, bailouts, buyouts, trillions of stimulus, etc. We are entering phase 2 now. ZIRP, NIRP and massive QE are on the way.

Can they stop this one? Time will tell
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby mousepad » Fri 04 Oct 2019, 15:32:26

Armageddon wrote:-record govt debt
-record govt deficits
-record corporate debt
-record consumer debt
-record credit card debt
-record student load debt

some man's debt is another man's credit.
The bigger the economy, the bigger the debt.

- GDP slowing to under 2% and headed to 0

Good. Perpetual growth has to stop sometime, the sooner the better.

- Manufacturing in contraction

Good. There's already enough crap out there.

- most of Europe in recession

Great, maybe the conquest of europe by 3rd world will stop then.

- Trucking collapsing

Nothing wrong with having less trucks on I-5 between LA and SF, don't ya think?

Can they stop this one? Time will tell

I hope not. But there's a high probability that things are not as bad as you wish they are, and the world will muddle forward.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 05 Oct 2019, 09:00:48

some man's debt is another man's credit.
The bigger the economy, the bigger the debt.


When in fear, when in doubt, spew out some consoling, lame platitude! We can all feel so much better now!


Can they stop this one? Time will tell


We don't know, but a neutral interest rate of 2.25% is a heck of a lot less than 4.0. Even if they do stop it this time, how long can they continue to prevent the collapse. The debt is continuing to grow explosively, and the neutral interest rate is heading toward zero.

This is all about simple Risk Management. Cost = Risk X Probability. Even if the probability was small the risk is GIGANTIC. We are talking about the potential end to modern civilization; at least as we have known it. Any sane, thinking individual will take what ever evasive action that is possible in the face of such odds.

Then there are those who would bet their entire life savings on the 7th horse of the 7th race because it showed up on a lottery ticket. They deserve no sympathy. History is littered with the remains of such hubris. They act as the fertilizer for any upcoming green shoots.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Cog » Sat 05 Oct 2019, 09:17:46

I don't even have to check my stocks anymore when the market is up. I just check this thread and the doomers are posting why the stock market being up is a disaster and fake news.
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