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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby EdwinSm » Thu 03 Oct 2019, 03:00:36

New Day :-D .

The European stock markets seem to have opened flatish, after yesterday's stock market sell off. So the Stock Market Crash is not with us yet (not yet at three month lows).
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Cog » Thu 03 Oct 2019, 03:07:31

*yawn*
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 03 Oct 2019, 05:55:51

So the Stock Market Crash is not with us yet (not yet at three month lows).


S&P down to 2,891. That is a four month low, but the PPT will be here any moment now! There is a story about a little Dutch boy that did the same thing, but he actually did save Holland. Saving JPM doesn't have the same didactic implications? When the FED runs out of Green Stamps, and Fruit Loop box tops there will be a turn for the worse! In the meantime the Market can continue to pretend that it actually is playing with real money. They are doing it to keep moral up. It has the same effect as giving everyone a rubber ducky after the Titanic goes down.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Cog » Thu 03 Oct 2019, 07:00:34

Shorty is no better predicting the stock market than he was oil prices. My shocked face. :shock:
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 03 Oct 2019, 10:26:51

Shorty is no better predicting the stock market than he was oil prices. My shocked face.


Cog thinks of himself as the ultimate endogenously apriori critic because he got a prediction correct one time. He predicted the death of his Gold Fish after he had flushed it down the toilet. The forensics are still outstanding. The chances are it starved to death. He now regards himself as the Mother Teresa of all prediction.

Some can't figure out that when you constantly pump only the best that can be found out of the same source for 160 years you wind up with crap. Crap doesn't do much for the economy and everything goes to shit. They are called stupid people, and the world was endowed with an exceptionally large number of them. Sorry Cog, but we are at the end of the oil age, and the "S" is "H" the Fan.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 03 Oct 2019, 10:48:42

Cog wrote:Shorty is no better predicting the stock market than he was oil prices. My shocked face. :shock:

+1

And predictably, his only response is to call you lots of names. SO convincing.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 03 Oct 2019, 10:56:14

Armageddon wrote:The stock market is now off to its worst quarterly start since 2008. Q4 of 2018 was the worst 4th quarter since the Great Depression, but even that quarter didn't start off this badly. Given that the Fed is out of ammo, how will it keep the house of cards from toppling this time?

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Well, at least this time you didn't call a 3% dip a "crash" this time. That's progress. 8)

Given your track record, why should we believe the crash is imminent this time? Or your house of cards theory? All you and short "have" is quoting debt levels with nothing else in context, cherry picking, and arm waving.

Meanwhile, the most realistic potential event you have to point at is indications we might have a recession, at some point.

Any fair coin has a track record of 50% over time, vs. about zero.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Yoshua » Thu 03 Oct 2019, 11:32:48

ISM export orders vs. S&P 500

This indicates that S&P 500 will collapse by more than 30 percent in 4Q.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EF4R77-WwAA ... me=900x900
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Yoshua » Thu 03 Oct 2019, 11:59:15

The Etp Model has weakness: it's "just" based on science.

It doesn't take in count human behaviour: EIA cooking the books, OPEC + cuts, sanctions on Venezuela and Iran, Saudi attack...

Eventually the Etp Model will be correct though...because it's just based on science.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby mousepad » Thu 03 Oct 2019, 12:05:12

Yoshua wrote:The Etp Model has weakness: it's "just" based on science.

No it's not. It pure BS.


It doesn't take in count human behaviour: EIA cooking the books, OPEC + cuts, sanctions on Venezuela and Iran, Saudi attack...

Eventually the Etp Model will be correct though...because it's just based on science.


You mean it doesn't into account the world? and therefore cannot predict shit?
That's where you're right.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Pops » Thu 03 Oct 2019, 12:08:32

mousepad wrote:
Yoshua wrote:The Etp Model has weakness

LOL, ya think?
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby StarvingLion » Thu 03 Oct 2019, 12:20:55

Cog wrote:Shorty is no better predicting the stock market than he was oil prices. My shocked face. :shock:


Cog, the brilliant combination of The Jet Engine + Chemical Explosives has now resulted in:

Civil War in Iraq.

Gee, Cog, whatcha suppose more Jet Engine + Chemical Explosives will result in?

Civil War in Saudia Arabia


Cog is a "Genius". Haha.

Future Cog Telephone Communications: "Hello, do you know where I can get an OXCART?"
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby StarvingLion » Thu 03 Oct 2019, 12:30:00

Japan and South Korea will soon be at a real War. Its inevitable. Cog will say "Great for the USA".

The Japan-South Korea Trade War Is Worrying for the World ...

https://time.com › World › South Korea

7 hours ago - The U.S.-China trade war is inflicting the most damage to the global economy, but it's the trade spat between Japan and South Korea that ...

will Trigger WWIII?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Pops » Thu 03 Oct 2019, 12:43:03

StarvingLion wrote:7 hours ago - The U.S.-China trade war is inflicting the most damage to the global economy, but it's the trade spat between Japan and South Korea that ...

will Trigger WWIII?

I'm kind of a knee-jerk protectionist but trade makes people interdependent. Good trade deals that make states equals are stabilizing.
Nationalism leads to war.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby StarvingLion » Thu 03 Oct 2019, 12:49:45

Pops wrote:
StarvingLion wrote:7 hours ago - The U.S.-China trade war is inflicting the most damage to the global economy, but it's the trade spat between Japan and South Korea that ...

will Trigger WWIII?

I'm kind of a knee-jerk protectionist but trade makes people interdependent. Good trade deals that make states equals are stabilizing.
Nationalism leads to war.


There are no longer any such animals called "good trade deal" and "stability" because of the consequences of massive EOR techniques that are now resulting in too high decline rates in the giant oil fields that really matter.

In other words, somebody has to do the dying.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby StarvingLion » Thu 03 Oct 2019, 13:25:06

Cog, I'm trading in my 2018 F-150 next year for a MONSTER GASOLINE ENGINE(7.3L 430 HP) from Ford . That sucker will probably only get 5MPG and will Save The Shale "Oil" Industry. I'll make millions in my F-250 towing Burnt-out EV's with Skeletons INsidehahahaha......Then we can send Pacifist Weaklings Ghung and BW Hill to the ME War Front for their:

Crimes Against The Internal Combustion Engine

Monster V8 engine to debut in Ford 2020 pickups in fall

https://www.freep.com/story/money/cars/ ... 878556001/

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Yoshua » Thu 03 Oct 2019, 14:10:50

Mice are easier to predict. They will always go for the piece of cheese.

Still...there isn't much human behaviour can do about the laws of physics and depletion.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 03 Oct 2019, 16:22:04

The Fed claims its not doing QE, but last week it's balance sheet expanded by $88.1B. It's grown by $176B in the past 3 weeks. During QE3 at most the Fed's balance grew by $85B per month. So the Fed is buying more than twice as much debt when it's not doing QE than when it was!

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 03 Oct 2019, 17:05:26

Gregory Manorino explains it well

https://youtu.be/4wYecNF1aEY
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 03 Oct 2019, 17:17:13

The Etp Model has weakness


Could you be a little more specific? If it is not the "Entropy rate balance equation for control volumes", you must be referring to a spelling error?
Try finding something that you know something about; like Tiddlywinks, or really stretch your brain, and go for Pick Up Sticks. Once you can break through the 1,2,3, many barrier the sky is the limit. Is that why all the baboons that you taught how to count are still stuck on 3?

At least you don't have to worry about mind control. In your case it would be an oxymoron.

Still...there isn't much human behaviour can do about the laws of physics and depletion.


But, there is something that humans will do about it; they'll die off.

We are nearing the end of the oil age, and the monetary system is on the verge of collapse.
If depletion doesn't get us, then the debt will, and no one seems to have an answer for either. It appears like everyone is trying to act like there isn't even a question! The debt has grown so gigantic that there is no means to address it. Once the defaults begin they will cascade around the world; then it will all start to shutdown. It looks like we will just keep bumbling along until we fall off the cliff! If we can get another year, or two it will be just dumb ass luck for dumb asses.

How the next generation will manage to survive is difficult to comprehend. Their world will look like present day downtown Chicago on steroids. The Mobs, and armed gangs will be the first to fight over food. Self sufficient communities are going to be back in vogue. Many of them with gun towers. It will look like 12th century Europe with walled cities and communities. Scarcities change civilization. Always have!
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