Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 30 Sep 2019, 12:34:45

Armageddon wrote:Fact:

Obama racked up more National Debt than the first 43 presidents combined

Fact:

During Obama’s second term, he added $2.2 Billion/day to the National Debt

Fact:

During Trump’s first term, he has added $2.8 Billion/day to the National Debt

Fact: Real economists don't just look at debt in isolation, and then claim that the world is coming to an end constantly. (If they did, just like clowns like you, they'd be constantly wrong).

Here's an example of what economists actually look at, to see if a recession is likely. It's written in simple enough terms that even simpletons like you and short should be able to understand. Not that you'll ever accept economic reality if it doesn't fit your meme of insta-doom. :roll:

But people wanting some measure of sanity might appreciate perspective from people who actually have a clue re economics.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/30/is-ther ... ators.html

If I could devise a model that would accurately predict the onset of every recession or economic crisis, I’d probably be worth more than Warren Buffett, Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos combined.

But the truth is nobody can accurately forecast when a recession will hit, although there are some leading indicators investors and economists look out for when trying to predict economic activity the coming months.

While you may have heard chatter about the yield curve inverting recently, there are other indicators that are equally or more important. If you’re interested in tracking where the economy could be headed, keep your eyes on these numbers.

Keep in mind, however, that no single indicator can give you a complete picture of the economy’s health.

The key indicators
Employment figures provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics provide a close-to-real-time snapshot of the economy. A decline in payrolls or hours worked — especially for more than a month or two in a row — can signal a slowdown in employment. An increase in unemployment claims is also troubling for similar reasons.

Keep in mind that there may be fluctuations isolated to some sectors of the economy, and that these don’t reflect as strongly on the overall picture of economic health. The unemployment rate stands at 3.7%, near historical lows, and is indicative of a robust employment market.

Housing prices, construction rates and supply are another set of indicators to watch. Generally speaking, when times are good, housing demand is high and prices rise. When demand begins to contract, fewer new homes get built, or existing homes sold. Both of these can indicate a slowdown is forthcoming. However, existing home prices and sales have each continued to increase in recent months.

The Consumer Confidence Index, which details consumer attitudes and buying intentions, is also important to monitor. (By some measures, the consumer makes up approximately 70% of the American economy.) Whether consumers feel confident about spending and the present or future trajectory of the economy tells us a great deal about where our fortunes are headed. At present, this index continues to demonstrate persistently positive consumer attitudes regarding the economy.

You can also take a look at manufacturing numbers and business sentiment. The Institute of Supply Management’s famous ISM gauge is a measure of the overall health of the manufacturing industry via its PMI Index. It shouldn’t read below 50, as anything under that represents a contractionary environment.

Like consumer confidence, if business sentiment is low, it can also foretell a slowdown to come. The most recent PMI figures came in at 49.1, signaling a somewhat contractionary business sentiment and environment.


Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the best measure of an overall economy’s health. Technically, we enter a recession when we have two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. (The first and second quarters of 2019 featured 3.1% and 2% GDP growth, respectively, both indicative of a continued, moderate expansion.) Thus, a decline in the growth rate, while concerning, isn’t actually indicative of a recession. Still, slowing GDP numbers mean we could slip into a negative growth situation, and eventually, a recession, so GDP is still the gold standard by which recessions are truly measured.

Finally, the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index provides a more comprehensive view of the economy, via a composite score derived from a variety of economic indices. It’s a handy gauge of where most major indicators are pointing.

The most recent reading signaled expectation for moderate growth in the second half of 2019. While no single gauge can provide a complete impression of the economic outlook, the LEI is often used as shorthand for economic expectations.

Red, and bold red fonts mine, for emphasis.

Note that the box score, aside from the ISM PMI guage is ALL positive. Note that GDP is the best indicator of economic growth. Note that the endless screeching by the usual suspects isn't worth a plug nickel, except in their little minds.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 7337
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 30 Sep 2019, 14:05:53

World debt in 1978 was $833 billion. It has grown 397 times since then.

Once the debt growth became greater than the GDP growth that was required to service that debt, the system was doomed. The world is past that point by 9 to 1. Once the credit markets stop functioning for a lack of spread [as interest rates go down as the debt goes up] the world's gigantic mountain of debt all comes tumbling down. We are no more than 100 bps from that point. After that; the present monetary system will disappear. We have been telling ourselves sweet little stories for a long, long time. One of those stories was that debt didn't really matter. Maybe some of those sweet little stories where originally intended as jokes? Debt, has the same irritating characteristics as gravity; it matters:
Image
User avatar
shortonoil
False ETP Prophet
False ETP Prophet
 
Posts: 6393
Joined: Thu 02 Dec 2004, 03:00:00
Location: VA USA

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 30 Sep 2019, 14:20:26

Once the debt growth became greater than the GDP growth that was required to service that debt, the system was doomed. The world is past that point by 9 to 1.


well you have a problem somewhere with your analysis. Debt servicing payments currently make up less than 10% of the annual US budget (about 7.5% last time I looked). That is half of what it was back in the nineties when GDP was much lower. Arguably the US was in a more dangerous situation back then especially with rising interest rates. Interest rates have remained low for a long time and there aren't many credible economists suggesting they will ramp up quickly in the future. Investment gurus suggest that the average homeowner should worry once their mortgage payments exceed 30% of their annual budget....as a nation the US is nowhere near that level with respect to interest payments. Debt is a problem when you can't pay the interest, it isn't when you can.
User avatar
rockdoc123
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 7302
Joined: Mon 16 May 2005, 02:00:00

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 30 Sep 2019, 14:24:02

shortonoil wrote:World debt in 1978 was $833 billion. It has grown 397 times since then.

Once the debt growth became greater than the GDP growth that was required to service that debt, the system was doomed. The world is past that point by 9 to 1. Once the credit markets stop functioning for a lack of spread [as interest rates go down as the debt goes up] the world's gigantic mountain of debt all comes tumbling down. We are no more than 100 bps from that point. After that; the present monetary system will disappear. We have been telling ourselves sweet little stories for a long, long time. One of those stories was that debt didn't really matter. Maybe some of those sweet little stories where originally intended as jokes? Debt, has the same irritating characteristics as gravity; it matters:
Image

Do you ever cite anything with credible citations, or just blabber endlessly and post cartoon pictures and bogus graphs from your meaningless ETP nonsense?

Given your track record, why should we listen to constant hysterical rantings, bereft of meaningful content?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 7337
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 30 Sep 2019, 15:19:26

rockdoc123 wrote:
Once the debt growth became greater than the GDP growth that was required to service that debt, the system was doomed. The world is past that point by 9 to 1.


well you have a problem somewhere with your analysis. Debt servicing payments currently make up less than 10% of the annual US budget (about 7.5% last time I looked). That is half of what it was back in the nineties when GDP was much lower. Arguably the US was in a more dangerous situation back then especially with rising interest rates. Interest rates have remained low for a long time and there aren't many credible economists suggesting they will ramp up quickly in the future. Investment gurus suggest that the average homeowner should worry once their mortgage payments exceed 30% of their annual budget....as a nation the US is nowhere near that level with respect to interest payments. Debt is a problem when you can't pay the interest, it isn't when you can.




Interest rates won’t be raised anytime soon, if ever. We’ll see ZIRP and NIRP long before they are raised. The debt is WAY too high and high rates will crash the system. Imagine the US interest payment exceeding 1 trillion annually if rates are raised. And this would rise exponentially.
User avatar
Armageddon
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5403
Joined: Wed 13 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: St.Louis, Mo

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 30 Sep 2019, 19:47:07

Fitch: World GDP Growth To Hit An Eight-year Low In 2020; MORGAN STANLEY: S&P Earnings Are Poised to Go Negative
User avatar
Armageddon
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5403
Joined: Wed 13 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: St.Louis, Mo

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 30 Sep 2019, 21:13:57

Armageddon wrote:Interest rates won’t be raised anytime soon, if ever. We’ll see ZIRP and NIRP long before they are raised. The debt is WAY too high and high rates will crash the system. Imagine the US interest payment exceeding 1 trillion annually if rates are raised. And this would rise exponentially.

Except that in the short run, the rates aren't raised on all the intermediate and long term debt.

Throwing around words like exponentially doesn't make it so, just like pretending that every blip is a crash doesn't make it so.

Now, have sustained high rates for, say, over a decade -- then that becomes a big problem.

https://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/rep ... eddebt.htm

I looked at the most recent annual schedule, first link:

https://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/rep ... nn2018.pdf
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 7337
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Yoshua » Tue 01 Oct 2019, 07:06:48

GERMAN SEPT FINAL MANUFACTURING PMI 41.7

No one will understand that when Germany and the Eurozone really starts to crater, that it's related to falling EROEI...since almost no one knows what it is.

At least everyone one on this site will be able to say: This has nothing to do with EROEI. This has to do with European socialism.
Yoshua
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1696
Joined: Sat 28 May 2016, 05:45:42

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby mousepad » Tue 01 Oct 2019, 08:41:50

Yoshua wrote:that it's related to falling EROEI..


It's not. EROEI has very little to do with a humming economy and full employment.
mousepad
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 60
Joined: Thu 26 Sep 2019, 08:07:56

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 01 Oct 2019, 09:33:21

"It’s Almost Impossible To Buy": Japanese Bond Crash, Margin Call Send Shockwaves Around The Globe
For a dramatic preview of what will happen in a flash to all those record low interest rates without the backstop of central banks and ravenous pension fund, look no further than what happened in Japan overnight


Summarizing this ominous day for Japan's bond market - and economy - MUFG Bank's Takahiro Sekido put it best: "Japanese bonds have reached the point where it’s almost impossible to buy."
For the sake of Japan, the global bond market, and the entire global financial system, he better be wrong.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ny-fe ... -operation

As the debt increases interest rates go down, and liquidity disappears. The liquidity shortage appears to now have become a permanent fixture of the credit markets. NY Fed Starts New Quarter With Unexpectedly High $55BN Repo Operation

The end of the oil age will be preceded by a world in economic ruin, and the end of the oil age is near at hand. The ERoEI of petroleum has fallen below 8:1, a minimum of 6.9:1 is required to run our modern civilization. The world has consumed 87% of its total extractable reserves. The exponentially exploding debt will be the last nail in this economy's coffin.

Image
User avatar
shortonoil
False ETP Prophet
False ETP Prophet
 
Posts: 6393
Joined: Thu 02 Dec 2004, 03:00:00
Location: VA USA

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Yoshua » Tue 01 Oct 2019, 09:52:08

U.S ISM manufacturing PMI 47.8 (lowest since 2009)
U.S new export orders 41.0

Trump blamed the Fed and the strong dollar.

Looks like even maga is diving into the abyss...or humming into...

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EFzL9cCX0AE ... ame=medium
Last edited by Yoshua on Tue 01 Oct 2019, 10:26:11, edited 1 time in total.
Yoshua
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1696
Joined: Sat 28 May 2016, 05:45:42

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Yoshua » Tue 01 Oct 2019, 10:25:17

DEUTSCHE: “ISM at 47.8 is bad but new export orders at 41 is even worse, see chart below. There is no end in sight to this slowdown, the recession risk is real.”
Yoshua
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1696
Joined: Sat 28 May 2016, 05:45:42

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 01 Oct 2019, 10:49:49

shortonoil wrote:https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ny-fe ... -operation

As the debt increases interest rates go down, and liquidity disappears. The liquidity shortage appears to now have become a permanent fixture of the credit markets.

Except when they don't. They didn't until 2008, and haven't consistently since then.

ANNNNNNNNNND, since we love zero hedge, FUD, and cherry picking, AND ignoring context, let's pretend that in the real world, quarter end fed funding isn't a thing, and that in the news, that went well, given the recent funding concerns (per Reuters). :roll:

https://kfgo.com/news/articles/2019/sep ... n=business

But once a ghost story teller, always a ghost story teller. Too bad your track record is zero, or you might be able to scare people with a brain.

There is NO evidence, aside from your wild delusions, that the world has consumed 50% of its resources, much less 87%, BTW. And as always, let's pretend that technology, adaption, substitution, conservation, recycling, etc. are all impossible because FUD is fun. :idea:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 7337
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby StarvingLion » Tue 01 Oct 2019, 11:31:28

Cog, how is GE doing today? Down 4%. GE is now in total collapse mode. Idiot CEO: "2020 will be better"....HAHAHAHA.

Ford collapsing too.

XOM in the 60's...DOOM. I arrived in Aug 2013. XOM's forever high was June 20, 2014 at $103. Damn, I was off by less than 1 year.

Deutsche Toilet Paper Windmill Bank is tanking again.

I am perfection.
Last edited by StarvingLion on Tue 01 Oct 2019, 11:56:35, edited 1 time in total.
Cog's brain was in a jar left open and maggots ate it.
StarvingLion
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1490
Joined: Sat 03 Aug 2013, 17:59:17

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 01 Oct 2019, 11:35:06

FYI.. US Manufacturing is an essential component of gross domestic product, that's 12% percent of U.S. economic output. AND manufactured goods comprise HALF of U.S. exports. Well this aspect of our "booming economy" just took a nosedive...

Twitter
User avatar
Armageddon
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5403
Joined: Wed 13 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: St.Louis, Mo

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby StarvingLion » Tue 01 Oct 2019, 11:40:13

Armageddon wrote:FYI.. US Manufacturing is an essential component of gross domestic product, that's 12% percent of U.S. economic output. AND manufactured goods comprise HALF of U.S. exports. Well this aspect of our "booming economy" just took a nosedive...

Twitter


"America" is a Giant Dope Farm waiting for the Scamazon EV Truck to deliver lawn clippings and sawdust to peasants.

Thats all Fakebook Currency is good for.
Cog's brain was in a jar left open and maggots ate it.
StarvingLion
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1490
Joined: Sat 03 Aug 2013, 17:59:17

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby StarvingLion » Tue 01 Oct 2019, 11:46:20

Cog, Raytheon and Lockheed Martin stock are collapsing in the past few days. I wonder why.

I guess nobody believes the F-35 Flop will "protect" KSA or that any of that anti-drone shit is worth a dime.

Soon, Cog and rockdoc will be headed to New Zealand. I wonder how those brainless crooks in NZ are ever going to secure oil.
Cog's brain was in a jar left open and maggots ate it.
StarvingLion
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1490
Joined: Sat 03 Aug 2013, 17:59:17

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Cog » Tue 01 Oct 2019, 11:49:20

StarvingLion wrote:
Armageddon wrote:FYI.. US Manufacturing is an essential component of gross domestic product, that's 12% percent of U.S. economic output. AND manufactured goods comprise HALF of U.S. exports. Well this aspect of our "booming economy" just took a nosedive...

Twitter


"America" is a Giant Dope Farm waiting for the Scamazon EV Truck to deliver lawn clippings and sawdust to peasants.

Thats all Fakebook Currency is good for.


Please seek the help of a mental health professional that you so desperately need.
User avatar
Cog
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 12838
Joined: Sat 17 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Northern Kekistan

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby StarvingLion » Tue 01 Oct 2019, 12:49:45

Cog wrote:
StarvingLion wrote:
Armageddon wrote:FYI.. US Manufacturing is an essential component of gross domestic product, that's 12% percent of U.S. economic output. AND manufactured goods comprise HALF of U.S. exports. Well this aspect of our "booming economy" just took a nosedive...

Twitter


"America" is a Giant Dope Farm waiting for the Scamazon EV Truck to deliver lawn clippings and sawdust to peasants.

Thats all Fakebook Currency is good for.


Please seek the help of a mental health professional that you so desperately need.


GE now down 5%.
BA tanking....
F tanking...down 3%
DE tanking....
EOG collapsing....

Price of oil...tanking
Gold...soaring.

Online Brokers are collapsing...Etrade down 17%. The Peasants made such a killing investing in GE that commissions must be 0 now.

People, BANK RUNS ARE IMMINENT. The Human Robot at the local bank said she'll stick a needle in my leg and seize my properties if I keep taking "money" out of the "bank".

Facebook "Currency" isn't worth the shit out of my ass. "America" to KSA: "All we have to offer is Facebook Currency". Binny: "Help me, please". The MASSIVE HORDES are surrounding KSA and the F-35 Flop won't do the "RICH" a damn bit of good.

KSA will extremely soon be a BURNING WRECK.

TRUTH: Shale "Oil" is a complete FRAUD.

Every prediction I have made has turned out true.
Cog's brain was in a jar left open and maggots ate it.
StarvingLion
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1490
Joined: Sat 03 Aug 2013, 17:59:17

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 01 Oct 2019, 13:41:16

ISM falls to decade low missing consensus of 50. New orders 47.3. Construction spending misses as well.


What will GDP be revised down to? 1.5?
User avatar
Armageddon
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5403
Joined: Wed 13 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: St.Louis, Mo

PreviousNext

Return to Economics & Finance

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 15 guests