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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 28 Sep 2019, 11:01:44

Another sign of pending recession. Change in industrial production on a year-over-year basis about to head into negative territory, just as in 1991, 2001, and 2008. Also validates my belief that US was in recession in 2016, based on falling Fed Tax Receipts.


Are you off your meds, or just completely delusional? Or just trolling?


You can be assured that no one wants your job. Playing the part of a clueless Wombat is not an enviable position.

$331 trillion in debt is not a recession?? How do you count to 21; drop your pants? $331 trillion in debt is the prelude to the worst depression the world has ever seen. The Pollyanna routine is getting a bit old.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby StarvingLion » Sat 28 Sep 2019, 11:30:14

The frustration of the Haves that wherever they go on their globe-trotting lifestyle, or wherever they try to distract themselves in their 12-cylinder cars, they are hindered by plebs, waves and waves of plebs.


You got it ass backwards. The "rich" people are broke. All they have is fake internet,windmill money or crude oil that is already booked. How many power stations are being built by the "rich"? Zero. How is F-35's 7x24 dropping chemical explosives going to compare to 100's of millions of plebs carrying rpg's? Fail. The "rich" cannot even keep the lights on in 5000 cities.

I'm predicting that large scale chemical explosives are as obsolete as Mushroom Cloud (nuclear) bombs. All they do is enable Rpgs, mortars to become even more powerful.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby StarvingLion » Sat 28 Sep 2019, 11:35:08

The world's economy is dying of energy starvation


Wrong. Energy is a meaningless catch term.

The world's economy is dying of hard currency starvation.

But BW Hill cannot handle that. His mind would immediately implode if he accepted that the situation is utterly hopeless. Then he would do an Aubrey McClendon by ramming his car into a concrete barrier.

Mankind cannot function in the situation of utterly hopeless. Nevertheless, that is what proper crude oil starvation is...it cannot be substituted by other forms of "energy" and it is not simply a technical problem.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 28 Sep 2019, 11:47:30

70% of Americans don’t have $1000 cash for an unexpected emergency. But the stooges on here don’t think we are in a recession? GDP is a flawed gauge to measure the health of an economy. Debt plays too big of a factor.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby StarvingLion » Sat 28 Sep 2019, 13:05:09

$1000 cash for an unexpected emergency.


You mean like admitting that the entire real estate stock is WORTHLESS?

You don't build a monstrous fossil fuel road system and then just put up some solar panels -- Fossil Fuel Civilization != Aztec Civilization

Nothing can fund the EV's in the absence of crude oil.

Without ICE vehicle exports, Japans Building Towers are completely worthless.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Sinclarsorus » Sat 28 Sep 2019, 13:33:10

Yeah don't wait for Solar, Wind, and Hydro to bail us out, it takes a ton of oil energy and supplies to make all this technology. A good example is solar panels, it uses many products made from oil like EVA sheets used to seal the solar cells in between the back sheets (also made from oil) and glass . On top of the panels last maybe 25 years at best if cared for and cleaned, then is thrown into the trash afterwards (So much for green energy) Its the biggest myth out there, it was basically a scam by Wall Street to capture investors money. Wind is a little better, but again consumes a lot of oil products to build these systems and transport them to sites. Basically you get out the same oil energy as you put in, no energy gain at all.

We are actually in a Depression technically since 2008. GNP has lost a potential 5 trillion dollars gain in real growth in the last 11 years. Over 90 million people in the USA have no regular employment. (Both indicators we are in a Depression already. Our Markets are actually crashing up or going sideways as a result from the 2008 bailouts, not down like everyone is waiting for. This will continue till the real economy can no longer sustain the markets looting them. Basically a bunch of corporate raiders are sucking the life out of the host a parasite. This will continue till there is nothing left to steal. Pensions plans and 401 K's will feed this till its all gone in the near future.

Basically if the USA was a person, Uncle Sam makes about 51,000 dollars in taxation income, spends over 65,000 per year. He already has over 700,000 dollars in long term debt. In just a few years will have many balloon payments for unfunded liabilities totaling over 7,000,000 dollars. That's basically bankruptcy, it will never be paid. Retirement doesn't look too good at this point in the game.

The big failure will happen when Agriculture fails from sky rocketing prices in energy leading to a massive crisis world wide.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 28 Sep 2019, 14:03:47

Wrong. Energy is a meaningless catch term.


And, another meaningless catch term: Gravity. The knuckle draggers are getting closer by the minute. Once this starts to all break down, the troglodytes are going to be getting hungry.

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70% of Americans don’t have $1000 cash for an unexpected emergency.


50% of Americans don't have $500 in cash for any reason, but they have 15 maxed out credit cards. Don't go to Walmart on ETP re-issue day. They will trample you to death in the candy isle. The world is flat out, busted broke, and there is no recourse. The great unwind will start in the credit markets. First BBB rated bonds, and then the banks. This mess couldn't have been any better if they had planned it.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 28 Sep 2019, 15:06:30

50% of Americans don't have $500 in cash for any reason, but they have 15 maxed out credit cards. Don't go to Walmart on ETP re-issue day. They will trample you to death in the candy isle. The world is flat out, busted broke, and there is no recourse. The great unwind will start in the credit markets. First BBB rated bonds, and then the banks. This mess couldn't have been any better if they had planned it.


perhaps in your bizarro world but in the real world the situation is much different.

household debt as measured against disposable income is much better than it was during the recession and has remained at a fairly static level for the past 5 years....meaning things aren't a lot worse

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the average persons ability to cover debt costs is better than it has been in a long time

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and it is pretty clear that credit card delinquency is actually lower than it has been in years

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but you just make crap up and hope people here buy it. :roll:
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 28 Sep 2019, 15:14:38

Armageddon wrote:70% of Americans don’t have $1000 cash for an unexpected emergency. But the stooges on here don’t think we are in a recession? GDP is a flawed gauge to measure the health of an economy. Debt plays too big of a factor.

Speaking of stooges, if the fast crash doomers are going to define recession as any damn thing you want it to be, why not just reside in an insane asylum, where residents define reality as whatever they believe it to be?

That sort of thinking is just as credible as the folks who insist we never landed on the moon or that the earth is flat, or that evolution doesn't exist, despite all the evidence.

But thanks for playing. And yeah, GDP is such a "bad" measure that it is favored by professional economists with real degrees, advanced degrees, a work life in that field, etc. But your ilk knows better because you've been wrongly proclaiming doom month after month, year after year. :roll:

How could anyone but be in awe of such wisdom? :lol:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 28 Sep 2019, 15:20:50

shortonoil wrote:50% of Americans don't have $500 in cash for any reason, but they have 15 maxed out credit cards. Don't go to Walmart on ETP re-issue day. They will trample you to death in the candy isle.

Funny thing, MANY MANY Americans were flat out broke, living on welfare etc, 35 years ago. I remember my girlfriend's mother complaining how "the welfarers" could buy the best steaks at the beginning of the months when they got their checks.

People were writing songs about being broke, etc. in the 60's.

But now is the end times because you say it is for what, the thousandth time? With no better reasoning than more moaning about the same stuff?

Or the endless false ETP theory flag, long proven to be total bozo territory?

Sure. This time, I'm convinced. :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 28 Sep 2019, 15:25:11

shortonoil wrote:
Another sign of pending recession. Change in industrial production on a year-over-year basis about to head into negative territory, just as in 1991, 2001, and 2008. Also validates my belief that US was in recession in 2016, based on falling Fed Tax Receipts.


Are you off your meds, or just completely delusional? Or just trolling?


You can be assured that no one wants your job. Playing the part of a clueless Wombat is not an enviable position.

As if we'd want your "job". Spraying delusional FUD endlessly, braying about ETP, welshing on debt, and selling worthless ETP pamphlets falsely marketed as useful investment info.

And again with the 5 year old level name calling. If that's all you have, I feel sorry for you.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 28 Sep 2019, 16:48:47

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Armageddon wrote:70% of Americans don’t have $1000 cash for an unexpected emergency. But the stooges on here don’t think we are in a recession? GDP is a flawed gauge to measure the health of an economy. Debt plays too big of a factor.

Speaking of stooges, if the fast crash doomers are going to define recession as any damn thing you want it to be, why not just reside in an insane asylum, where residents define reality as whatever they believe it to be?

That sort of thinking is just as credible as the folks who insist we never landed on the moon or that the earth is flat, or that evolution doesn't exist, despite all the evidence.

But thanks for playing. And yeah, GDP is such a "bad" measure that it is favored by professional economists with real degrees, advanced degrees, a work life in that field, etc. But your ilk knows better because you've been wrongly proclaiming doom month after month, year after year. :roll:

How could anyone but be in awe of such wisdom? :lol:




Typically, economists use GDP per capita as a proxy for a country's standard of living, but as International Monetary Fund head Christine Lagarde, Nobel prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz and MIT professor Erik Brynjolfsson noted at the recently concluded World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, "GDP is a poor way of assessing the health of our economies and we urgently need to find a new measure."

But Outcast Searcher knows all
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Sinclarsorus » Sat 28 Sep 2019, 18:26:40

Armageddon wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Armageddon wrote:
How could anyone but be in awe of such wisdom? :lol:




Typically, economists use GDP per capita as a proxy for a country's standard of living, but as International Monetary Fund head Christine Lagarde, Nobel prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz and MIT professor Erik Brynjolfsson noted at the recently concluded World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, "GDP is a poor way of assessing the health of our economies and we urgently need to find a new measure."


Many doomers would have been right if we didn't have more than a trillion dollars of bailouts in 2008. Lump on top of that 40,000 pages of unfair tax code in the good ole USA that allows companies to get away with hardly any tax at all. (Basically we had to bail out corporations that pay no tax, but expect Uncle Sam to foot the bill.)

If you want to know what is really going on, read the book J is for Junk Economics by Michael Hudson he is a 80 year old economist that nails what is in operation today. Very good book.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Sinclarsorus » Sat 28 Sep 2019, 18:33:31

Armageddon wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Armageddon wrote:
How could anyone but be in awe of such wisdom? :lol:




Typically, economists use GDP per capita as a proxy for a country's standard of living, but as International Monetary Fund head Christine Lagarde, Nobel prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz and MIT professor Erik Brynjolfsson noted at the recently concluded World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, "GDP is a poor way of assessing the health of our economies and we urgently need to find a new measure."


Many doomers would have been right if we didn't have more than a trillion dollars of bailouts in 2008. Lump on top of that 40,000 pages of unfair tax code in the good ole USA that allows companies to get away with hardly any tax at all. (Basically we had to bail out corporations that pay no tax, but expect Uncle Sam to foot the bill.)

If you want to know what is really going on, read the book J is for Junk Economics by Michael Hudson he is a 80 year old economist that nails what is in operation today. Very good book.

YouTube on book here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZM0_7PVuVVg
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Yoshua » Sun 29 Sep 2019, 04:06:49

The U.S economy is growing thanks to U.S government deficit spending at USD 1 Trillion annually.

But the U.S economy isn't growing enough to support the governments deficit spending. That is why the bank reserves held at the federal reserve bank are declining.

Basel lll rules forces primary dealers to take part in treasury auctions. The banks have turned into bag holders of the U.S national debt...since they can't find buyers to those treasuries.

As treasury yields have fallen below the federal funds rate, the interest rate on excessive reserves and the Repo rate...the banks refuse to accept treasuries as collateral.

The Fed will have to restart QE and buy treasuries again?

Today the Fed only accepts treasuries as collateral in the Repo market.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 29 Sep 2019, 09:03:32

Or the endless false ETP theory flag, long proven to be total bozo territory?


False? By whose estimate, yours? You can't even count to 21 to say much less present a dynamic thermodynamic model. Funny. Your analysis will improve immensely if you stick to your limitations: 1,2,3, many.

We are actually in a Depression technically since 2008. GNP has lost a potential 5 trillion dollars gain in real growth in the last 11 years. Over 90 million people in the USA have no regular employment. (Both indicators we are in a Depression already. Our Markets are actually crashing up or going sideways as a result from the 2008 bailouts, not down like everyone is waiting for. This will continue till the real economy can no longer sustain the markets looting them. Basically a bunch of corporate raiders are sucking the life out of the host a parasite. This will continue till there is nothing left to steal. Pensions plans and 401 K's will feed this till its all gone in the near future.


The real problems began about 2005 when the debt began to explode exponentially. Why it happened is another subject. But, that was when the monetizetion process got into full swing, and that was when the problems began to appear. Growing debt destroys liquidity, and the more the central banks had to monetize, the more debt they created. Monetizetion put the monetary/ financial system into a negative feed back loop that can not be stopped. It is growing exponentially. World debt is presently growing by $48 trillion a year. That is $48 trillion in new debt that must be created in the coming year to keep the system from breaking down. That means that $48 trillion in collateral must be posted to secure the debt.

As the debt grows the collateral goes down in quality. That may be what put a $1.4 trillion short squeeze on the banking industry last week. Powell rode to the rescue; he put up about $100 billion in rescue funds. That leaves $1.3 trillion to be rediscovered. Pensions and 401 K's will likely go soon. They are very liquid compared to National Parks.

The vultures are not the cause of the problem, they are the symptom of a fatal disease that must eventually occur to all debt based fiat systems. Debt is the other side of the ledger sheet. They eat themselves up at the rate of interest, and money stops flowing. The debt goes up, and the velocity of money falls. Historically this currency system will be no different than the 3,000+ debt based fiat currencies that came before it. They failed. We are entering a depression. Nothing has been fixed; nothing can be fixed, it is a design error.

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Sinclarsorus » Sun 29 Sep 2019, 14:06:15

The real beginning of the new Service Sector Ponzi Scam started in 1978, when companies talked unions into accepting 401 k investments in exchange for real wage earning raises. By these workers putting the extra money they use to save at banks (over 20%) was then directed into these pre-tax 401k's instead. There by giving Wall Street extra funding to off shore the very jobs the unions worked at and for.

Since that time there was a gradual increase of job losses up to when NAFTA was finally passed in 1993 when Clinton was in the White House. Since then there was a mass exodus of real manufacturing high paying middle class jobs that use to be the core of the real economy. Over that same time Wall Street magically transformed from a zero sum casino game into a core of our new Service Sector economy representing a large portion of modern GNP figures (Another wards its a con, the stock markets do not create economic growth, building things to trade does, not selling securities.)

What happen in 1971 Banks found out they made more money from low income neighbor hoods. Union pay was so good for workers in these jobs with 20 percent savings per year and low debt, hence banks didn't make much money from high paying union type jobs. So basically the plan was to make all workers low income by destroying the very high paying union type companies and build up the loan sharking with credit card operations and high priced real estate scams etc, like it is today. Basically the average worker lives on debt instead of real higher wages inflation wise. The average worker makes about one third to one half of what we use to get in real economic terms counting in rising costs. Inflation has ate up any gains in real economic terms. Its been almost 50 years since all this started, we basically went from a productive vital economy making real products to trade to just working at fast food shops as a career. Nice job Banksters. You what fries with that? lol

Basically Wall Street is taking all the money it takes in to buy stock back, hence all the high prices we have now. There is no investment in the future, so there won't be any long term. Hard to say how long the Ponzi scheme will last, but I think it will bust when retirees start withdraws from this crazy system. Once the core retirees are cashing in on the casino - the game is over, more than likely retirement savings as well. Basically we turned into the biggest casino game of all time, gold rush towns have nothing on this modern economic model. If this system ran our past civilizations we would have gone extinct. The polarization of earnings will eventually destroy the whole system and monetary values in the end. Grade F for modern economics.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 30 Sep 2019, 10:17:58

Fact:

Obama racked up more National Debt than the first 43 presidents combined

Fact:

During Obama’s second term, he added $2.2 Billion/day to the National Debt

Fact:

During Trump’s first term, he has added $2.8 Billion/day to the National Debt
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby StarvingLion » Mon 30 Sep 2019, 11:49:30

BREAKING NEWS FLASH:

Back in 2016, the Department of Justice (DoJ) and Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) started an investigation over Fiat Chrysler Automobiles’ misleading sales reports. Now, more than three years later, the automaker has agreed to pay $40 million to settle the charges imposed by SEC.

Boeing is dropping like a rock again. EOG is dropping like a rock again. The "price" of oil is failing again.

Boeing has no idea how to make a safe airplane any longer.

I'm spending $100/day on gasoline to save the Oil Industry. I'm now going to increase it to $200/day by getting a monster 4x4 from Fiat Chrysler to supplement my F-150

The ugly chick at the local bank said this morning that I'm a:

"Suicidal Lunatic"

I replied "thank you".
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 30 Sep 2019, 12:00:01

Basically Wall Street is taking all the money it takes in to buy stock back, hence all the high prices we have now.


OK there seems to be some misunderstanding here. Wall Street is not the buying back stock given it doesn't actually issue stock. Companies issue stock to shareholders and from time to time they buy that back which raises the companies share price due to decreased supply. Nothing to do with Wall Street other than some of the investment banks own stocks in those companies and are probably happy that the company is buying them back as it increases their value.
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