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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby StarvingLion » Wed 25 Sep 2019, 12:12:43

The CRIMINALS at the local banks won't let me take my "money" out.

What does that tell you?

Answer: NO MORE USABLE CRUDE OIL

Nothing but worthelss paper. Hitlter Economoics:

THE DEBT IS DISGUISED MONEY PRINTING

I'm now working on a Nuclear Powered Cruise Missile with Nuclear Warheads. Its inspiration is the original star trek episode:

THE DOOMSDAY MACHINE.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Dooms ... nal_Series)

I'll have thousands of nuclear powered cruise missiles flying for months and months dumping radioactive dust on all your worthless heads.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Pluto

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 25 Sep 2019, 12:30:01

Armageddon wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Armageddon wrote:One Of Boeing's Top Buyers In India Said To Be Considering A 100-Jet Airbus Deal

I’m sure that’s good for the US economy. I’m sure Boeing will need bailed out down the road

Heaven forbid any US company not get some international order. Congrats. You've proven it. Doom for SURE. :roll:



You’ll be saying that when the FED is bailing out Boeing with more billions. But who cares, it’s only money, right?

Given the accuracy of your predictions since 2011, counting your chickens early is rather silly. But I know, it's what you do.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 25 Sep 2019, 12:35:00

So housing seems to be looking up overall relative to the claims of financial armageddon. Posted for balance re the US economic outlook, since the purveyors of rapid doom (TM) wouldn't want to ever report positive news on the economy. Doing so might interfere with the false, incessant, claims of insta-doom. :roll:

(Of course, we know this is impossible from the doom brigade, since they claim people can't afford motor fuels, etc. OTOH, a median household income well above $60K, and increasing quite steadily over the past decade DOES matter in reality.) https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA646N

Signs point to reheating in housing market as home price gains stop slowdown, S&P Case-Shiller July index says


Home price gains have been shrinking since March 2018, but now signs point to reheating in the housing market.

The much-watched S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index rose 3.2% annually in July, the same gain reported in June. Prices are still cooling in the largest cities, however. The 10-City Composite rose 1.6% annually, down from 1.9% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 2.0% annual gain, down from 2.2% in June.


https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/24/home-pr ... index.html
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby StarvingLion » Wed 25 Sep 2019, 12:58:12

You will all soon be riding OXCARTS:

The Motor Industry is Unsustainable because of Debt

Gross new lending for car purchase was €2.1 billion over the past twelve months, the largest amount of new lending recorded since the series began. Non-PCP hire purchase agreements were the main driver of the increase in new lending

- The Central Bank of Ireland, August 2019

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 25 Sep 2019, 13:18:18

StarvingLion wrote:You will all soon be riding OXCARTS:

The Motor Industry is Unsustainable because of Debt

Gross new lending for car purchase was €2.1 billion over the past twelve months, the largest amount of new lending recorded since the series began. Non-PCP hire purchase agreements were the main driver of the increase in new lending

- The Central Bank of Ireland, August 2019

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Your usual "great" work, I see. No link to the article (just the chart). I presume this is for Ireland only, given the magnitude of the problem cited, and that US car loan's outstanding are over $1 trillion, and have been for years, per several googled sources.

Since when is Ireland the center of the global economy and proof of global trends? The usual cherry picking, no doubt?

Somehow, I think me buying a new car every 12ish years, with cash, will still be possible, regardless of what FUD you want to pronounce via ox carts. After all, only a tiny fraction of a decade's income goes into such a purchase. :idea: And that way I don't need to worry about the digestive tract of the ox, etc. :roll:

I'm all for less lending, and more of people buying what they can afford, and using cash instead of paying lots of interest on debt. But whether the car market contracts, say, 5 or 10% to allow a debt slow-down or not, your claim of 100% ox carts ranks right up there with the rest of your ever-wrong blathered predictions.

Oh, and of course, people could just buy used, buy smaller and more fuel efficient cars, etc. But of course, that wouldn't purvey the image of doom, now would it? :lol:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 25 Sep 2019, 14:05:57

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Armageddon wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Armageddon wrote:One Of Boeing's Top Buyers In India Said To Be Considering A 100-Jet Airbus Deal

I’m sure that’s good for the US economy. I’m sure Boeing will need bailed out down the road

Heaven forbid any US company not get some international order. Congrats. You've proven it. Doom for SURE. :roll:



You’ll be saying that when the FED is bailing out Boeing with more billions. But who cares, it’s only money, right?

Given the accuracy of your predictions since 2011, counting your chickens early is rather silly. But I know, it's what you do.



My rate cuts and QE predictions are pretty spot on
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 25 Sep 2019, 14:08:37

Federal Reserve Bank of New York said it would increase the size of overnight cash loans to $100 billion from $75 billion
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 25 Sep 2019, 15:02:53

Armageddon wrote:My rate cuts and QE predictions are pretty spot on

No, they're not. You predict higher rate cuts than we've been getting.

And pretending that ONE topic (if you were accurate re your claims) was enough to make your overall claims accurate is ludicrous.

But thanks for playing.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 25 Sep 2019, 15:08:13

Armageddon wrote:Federal Reserve Bank of New York said it would increase the size of overnight cash loans to $100 billion from $75 billion

And with these being accepted at less than 2% rates recently, why, pray tell is this a big deal?

More FUD spreading, of course.

When the rates get over 5% AND the Fed has to do even larger operations to prevent panic, be sure and let us know.

https://apps.newyorkfed.org/markets/aut ... 01/01/2000
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 25 Sep 2019, 15:35:33

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Armageddon wrote:Federal Reserve Bank of New York said it would increase the size of overnight cash loans to $100 billion from $75 billion

And with these being accepted at less than 2% rates recently, why, pray tell is this a big deal?

More FUD spreading, of course.

When the rates get over 5% AND the Fed has to do even larger operations to prevent panic, be sure and let us know.

https://apps.newyorkfed.org/markets/aut ... 01/01/2000




More significantly, the Fed is doubling the size of the term repo operations from $30 billion to $60 billion.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 25 Sep 2019, 15:38:23

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Armageddon wrote:My rate cuts and QE predictions are pretty spot on

No, they're not. You predict higher rate cuts than we've been getting.

And pretending that ONE topic (if you were accurate re your claims) was enough to make your overall claims accurate is ludicrous.

But thanks for playing.




My predictions aren’t wrong, just early.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 25 Sep 2019, 15:42:51

My predictions aren’t wrong, just early.


much like your continuing prediction of an imminent recession/depression for about the last 8 years. Yeah, just a bit early given during that time period the S&P500 more than doubled. :roll:
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 25 Sep 2019, 15:47:47

Armageddon wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Armageddon wrote:My rate cuts and QE predictions are pretty spot on

No, they're not. You predict higher rate cuts than we've been getting.

And pretending that ONE topic (if you were accurate re your claims) was enough to make your overall claims accurate is ludicrous.

But thanks for playing.


My predictions aren’t wrong, just early.

Of course. :roll:

No self delusion there.

When you confidently predict a half point cut for July, for example, and it is a quarter point, you weren't wrong. 8) (In the real world, the vast majority of actual, professional bank economists -- people who actually understand something of substance about the subject, got it right, per articles I read.)

Meanwhile, in the real world, a couple days ago you were claiming jumping gold and silver prices that day were confirming how bad things are.

Well, silver and gold down pretty hard today. The past two days, silver has reversed your "almost 4%" excitement over the silver jump, prompting the appropriate picture of the cute baby duck going to sleep by asg.

So much for correlating Fed Repo FUD with gold and silver rising.

But of course, things like that don't matter, because when you're wrong, you're right. 8)

Like every dip is a "crash" is right. Like growth is a recession, or even a depression, if the rate of growth is slowing.

Does being basically wrong 8 straight years make you super-right? (Sorry rockdoc, I already had that line in mind -- thanks to your earlier reminders on the subject).

In the real world, overall, you couldn't be more WRONG.
Last edited by Outcast_Searcher on Wed 25 Sep 2019, 15:52:55, edited 1 time in total.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 25 Sep 2019, 15:50:36

rockdoc123 wrote:
My predictions aren’t wrong, just early.


much like your continuing prediction of an imminent recession/depression for about the last 8 years. Yeah, just a bit early given during that time period the S&P500 more than doubled. :roll:



Take away the trillions of govt viagra, QE 1,2,3, bailouts, buyouts, ZIRP, etc and what would have happened? We may soon find out.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 25 Sep 2019, 16:03:20

Armageddon wrote:
rockdoc123 wrote:
My predictions aren’t wrong, just early.


much like your continuing prediction of an imminent recession/depression for about the last 8 years. Yeah, just a bit early given during that time period the S&P500 more than doubled. :roll:



Take away the trillions of govt viagra, QE 1,2,3, bailouts, buyouts, ZIRP, etc and what would have happened? We may soon find out.

Finally, a reasonably phrased predicition. Yes, we MAY, or we may not.

Of course, in '09, '10, the net was full of economic "experts" shrieking that hyperinflation and doom were just around the corner, due to ZIRP, QE, etc.

Annnnnnnnnnnnnnnd we've had a decade of unbelievably low inflation (given the past 50 years of history) instead.

You see? It's not that hard to be reasonable. You could say you FEAR high inflation, or you're WORRIED about high inflation and cite the higher gold price, etc. as your reasons.

It's the excessive doom mongering and fact distorting that strays so far into the area of delusion, especially when expressed as absolute certainty.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 25 Sep 2019, 16:09:42

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Armageddon wrote:
rockdoc123 wrote:
My predictions aren’t wrong, just early.


much like your continuing prediction of an imminent recession/depression for about the last 8 years. Yeah, just a bit early given during that time period the S&P500 more than doubled. :roll:



Take away the trillions of govt viagra, QE 1,2,3, bailouts, buyouts, ZIRP, etc and what would have happened? We may soon find out.

Finally, a reasonably phrased predicition. Yes, we MAY, or we may not.

Of course, in '09, '10, the net was full of economic "experts" shrieking that hyperinflation and doom were just around the corner, due to ZIRP, QE, etc.

Annnnnnnnnnnnnnnd we've had a decade of unbelievably low inflation (given the past 50 years of history) instead.

You see? It's not that hard to be reasonable. You could say you FEAR high inflation, or you're WORRIED about high inflation and cite the higher gold price, etc. as your reasons.

It's the excessive doom mongering and fact distorting that strays so far into the area of delusion, especially when expressed as absolute certainty.



There’s definitely something on the horizon and it won’t be pretty. You just can’t keep printing trillions and think nothing will happen. The deficits are exploding and will continue to do so.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 25 Sep 2019, 16:30:54

Dollar Liquidity Crisis Accelerates As Month-End Nears, Record $92 Billion Demand
As month-end looms, demand for dollar liquidity is accelerating dramatically with today's Fed operation oversubscribed - with around $92 billion of demand for The Fed's $75 billion offering...

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/dol ... ion-demand

The situation is deteriorating. The quality of oil, and probably all fossil fuels, has fallen to a level that makes a growth economy no longer possible. World debt has grown to a level that is now unsustainable. As the current monetary system fails the window of opportunity for acquiring other marketable assets, like PMS, will soon be closing. Any asset that the government can tax won't be held for long. Social breakdown is the end game.

It's the excessive doom mongering and fact distorting that strays so far into the area of delusion, especially when expressed as absolute certainty.


There’s definitely something on the horizon and it won’t be pretty. You just can’t keep printing trillions and think nothing will happen. The deficits are exploding and will continue to do so.


The entire inter-banking system is back on FED life support to prevent it from freezing up. The $trillions in excess reserves that the banks were supposed to have weren't there when it came time to use them. That is hardly delusion; that is fact! There’s definitely something on the horizon, and it is down right ugly.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 26 Sep 2019, 14:18:09

Repo Market Guru: "Whatever Changed Last Week Is Clearly Still A Problem
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/repo- ... ll-problem

the fact that we’re discussing a quarter trillion dollars is telling as to the depth of the constraint in repo."

Indeed it is, and unfortunately neither the Fed nor apparently anyone else, still has a clue what is going on.


$1.4 trillion in excess reserves appears to have gone "Poof", and no one seems to know where it went! The world's $331 trillion, and growing at $131 billion a day in debt is overwhelming the system. The debt accumulation is representative of fossil fuels depletion rate.

The world's economy is dying of energy starvation, and we now have a Globalized slow down in progress. The monetary system will fail completely when there is no profit to be found in a loan book. Rates must come down as the debt goes up so that service cost do not collapse the economy. Somewhere between the FFR, and zero the credit markets disappear; that is when no one can make money loaning it.! Then things will get really interesting.

Kennedy's executive order# 1110 will then be re-issued. The King of currency will become the Treasury Issued Dollar. It will be backed by species; gold, silver, used Tesla batteries, and a few tons of "something" the NSA has buried in its basement. That would work except ..... that there will not be many of them! The TID shortage will make the 30's Great Depression look like a cake walk.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 26 Sep 2019, 16:56:09

US Government Adds Almost Half a Trillion Dollars to National Debt in One Month
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Yoshua » Fri 27 Sep 2019, 00:38:22

The U.S government is borrowing USD 1 Trillion annually.
The U.S corporates are spending USD 1 Trillion in share buy backs annually.
Where is that money coming from when global trade is in contraction?

China isn't responding to stimulus.
The other Asian economies are in export depression.

The Eurozone isn't responding to M1 growth.
European banks can't make money on negative yields...wait until the corporates start to default on debt...then the banks will really start to lose money.
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