[EnergyUnlimited]

So they did it:
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-49053383
War or no war?

[Cog]

Is it a US flagged vessel? Then no. The UK, who has continually bad mouthed the USA, can send their own fleet to deal with it.

[EnergyUnlimited]

Britain have millions of Muslims within its borders, may alligned with Iran.
War would be interesting.

[Outcast_Searcher]

Is it a US flagged vessel? Then no. The UK, who has continually bad mouthed the USA, can send their own fleet to deal with it.

Unless Trump, who seems to have been showing signs of spoiling for a fight with Iran in recent months, IMO, wants to use this as the excuse.

If it comes to a war between the US and Iran, I just hope all the US neglect of internet vulnerabilities re things like utilities, doesn't lead to some potentially VERY ugly consequences for things like the grid.

Oh, and let's not even talk about activation of various terror cells.

You can't prevent all asymmetric security risks with warships and missiles.

[EnergyUnlimited]

Apparently Iran have captured second british tanker.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news ... ed-by-iran
Brits must do something because within few days all their tankers will be in Iran.
But what to do?
Their carrier is not seaworthy... it leaks.

[Newfie]

Interesting situation for Trump. So far beyond acting beligerantly he has been pretty pacific. My thinking is Iran is betting he has no guts for war.

A lot will depend upon USA political reaction. Will Americans rally?

Interesting stuff.

[EnergyUnlimited]

Is it a US flagged vessel? Then no. The UK, who has continually bad mouthed the USA, can send their own fleet to deal with it.

Unless Trump, who seems to have been showing signs of spoiling for a fight with Iran in recent months, IMO, wants to use this as the excuse.

If it comes to a war between the US and Iran, I just hope all the US neglect of internet vulnerabilities re things like utilities, doesn't lead to some potentially VERY ugly consequences for things like the grid.

Oh, and let's not even talk about activation of various terror cells.

You can't prevent all asymmetric security risks with warships and missiles.

Iran doesn't look for me suicidal.
They are certainly taking into account possible risk of war with US.
What if *there is* a secret pact with China and/or Russia to strike american interests in concerted fashion, should US attack?

[EnergyUnlimited]

Interesting situation for Trump. So far beyond acting beligerantly he has been pretty pacific. My thinking is Iran is betting he has no guts for war.

A lot will depend upon USA political reaction. Will Americans rally?

Interesting stuff.

I am concerned about spreading mental disease on the West and possibility of erratic or ill calculated reactions.
Existing western elites are IMO mentally not fit to deal with stress.

[Newfie]

The other thing is that the IK is in a funny position with May stepping down and being in a transition period.

This may well effect who becomes the next PM on July 22, if I am correct.

The timing is well chosen.

[dolanbaker]

Voting for the PM closes on the 22nd July, new PM announced on the 23rd he will then immediately take office.
By this stage almost all the votes will already be in, so this event wouldn't change anything.

[Plantagenet]

I saw a news report that Iran is secretly offering to allow US inspections of their military sites if the US will resume negotiations and move towards a new nuclear treaty and the end of US sanctions.

Certainly that would go a long way towards fixing the idiotic Obama treaty that did not allow inspections of Iranian military sites for nuclear weapon materials.

Perhaps there is a way out of this mess.....if we can start moving towards a new US-Iran treaty that actually restricts Iranian nuclear weapons production, then we would be on a path towards peace. Iran agrees to a real treaty that will restrict their nuclear program, including inspections, the US agrees to drop sanctions, and we just say no war with Iran.

Cheers!

[dissident]

The hypocrisy is something to behold. Since the UK gives itself the right to seize Iranian tankers shipping oil to Syria, Iran can act likewise. No amount of bitching and moaning from the UK and its pals can remove that fact that the UK engaged in piracy when it
seized the Iranian tanker. And don't invoke the BS "laws" passed inside the US or its minions. These laws have zero legitimacy outside their borders.

To think that the US let Daesh/ISIS steal Syrian oil via massive truck convoys to Turkey and Iraq and now tries to limit the flow of oil to Syria as it occupies Syria's prime oil producing territory to the east of the Euphrates. The US engages in piracy of Syrian oil in Syria, while its poodle, the UK, engages in piracy of oil bound for Syria on the high seas.

[Newfie]

Thanks Dolan, the UK methods of choosing a PM are new to me. In the histories I read the PM selection method is always unclear. When did they actually start taking a vote? What did they do before?

[dolanbaker]

The postal vote started about three weeks ago and only Tory party members can vote, they can vote anytime during that four week period, but their votes must be in by the end of 22nd July, counting on 23rd and the winner takes up office almost immediately.

Looks like Boris will get a baptism of fire if this issue isn't resolved by then.

[EnergyUnlimited]

I saw a news report that Iran is secretly offering to allow US inspections of their military sites if the US will resume negotiations and move towards a new nuclear treaty and the end of US sanctions.

I suspect here North Korean negotiating strategy.
All what they need is to buy some time to build a dosen or two dosens of nukes sufficient to annihilate Israel few times around.
At this point Trump and US in general will have to back down.

[Cog]

You really think that Iran glassing Israel won't result in Iran being erased from the planet?Israel has nukes too.

What the Iranians are currently doing with this ship seizure and acts of terrorism is to force the US into dropping sanctions. That approach will not work with the USA, at least not with this administration. But Iran has no other real military options other than piracy. Their military could be destroyed within days if the USA wished it to be so. So far, the Iranians have not directly attacked US warships or US interests. The Global Hawk shoot down notwithstanding. If that changes, the Iranians will find out what a real military is all about.

[EnergyUnlimited]

You really think that Iran glassing Israel won't result in Iran being erased from the planet?Israel has nukes too.

MAD principles apply here and most likely both Israel and Iran would be left alone.
Decision centers determining american policy are really in Israel, and peple there do not consider themselves disposable.
Credible threat of Israel destruction is a war stopper for both Israel and US, particularly if Iran offers no aggression deal.
Israeli situation is also peculiar because of very small teritory.
Successful decapitating first strike against Israel is a credible threat, unlike in the case of US or Russia.
Israel can only rely on US in larger war.

What the Iranians are currently doing with this ship seizure and acts of terrorism is to force the US into dropping sanctions.

Nope.
All what they want is their tanker back and then they will promptly release british one.
I can offer a bet in this respect.

Their military could be destroyed within days if the USA wished it to be so. So far, the Iranians have not directly attacked US warships or US interests. The Global Hawk shoot down notwithstanding. If that changes, the Iranians will find out what a real military is all about.

Open Iraqui styled war on Iran will result in Chinese seizure of Taiwan at the same time.
US doesn't want it for sure, so all what they will do is either few airstrikes or nothing.
Most likely nothing at the moment.
Brits will need to negotiate exchange of ship they have pirated for their ship which Iran have pirated in retaliation.

My taking on the subject is that larger scale war here is unlikely as all parties would loose much and gain next to nothing.

[Cog]

I have a better solution. Just sink or destroy any Iranian vessel that is engaged in piracy. The Iranians can't stop us from doing that and we would be acting well within the norms of using force to stop piracy on the open seas. Any further expansion into outright war would totally be on the heads of the Iranians.

[dissident]

The latest propaganda BS from the chihuahua statelet known as the UK is that Russia confused the tanker with GPS jamming. This crap is for the typical ignorant mass media consumer who has no clue about what qualifications ship navigators need and what equipment is on board tankers and other ships.

1) GPS is not the EXCLUSIVE tool for ship navigation. Tankers have radar and can determine the positions of ships around them.

2) It is a requirement that ships be able to operate without fancy equipment. That is, visually. This narrow section of the Gulf offers plenty of visual clues such as the Iranian coast. Territorial waters are 7 nautical miles. It is very easy to see Iranian land from this distance. If there is any doubt as toward which coast the ship is headed, look at the other coast it would be invisible being over 50 km away. And there is plenty of other ship traffic going in and out of the Gulf. If the tanker crew was somehow being jammed to the point they could not even use their radar, they would not have b-lined for Iranian waters since the overall ship traffic route is parallel to the Iranian coast.

[Cog]

What is not confusing is that Iranian commandos seized a ship in international waters. There is video of them doing a rappel from a helicopter onto the deck of the tanker. The proper use of crew served machine guns could discourage such piracy in the future. Pirates deserve a pirates death.

The latest from Iran is they want to charge a toll to every ship transiting the straight. We are going to need a crap load of dimes if that is the case.