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THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 08 Jan 2019, 13:39:51

dolanbaker wrote:If the transition to EVs continue to escalate at the current rate, we could soon end up with a situation where the price of secondhand ICE cars falls through the floor.

The vast majority of people need and/or want cars. The price of ICE vehicles won't fall much, unless the demand for them falls sharply. That won't happen unless alternatives like BEV's are either significantly cheaper, significantly better, or some combination of both.

So I strongly disagree with "soon" if you mean in the next 5 years (and probably more like the next 10 or 15). And it's not like there will be a large proportion of used BEV's for at least a decade to flood the second hand market -- at any price, since there just won't be that many compared to the ICE fleet.

Now, if instead of pure ICE, you mean people switching to more hybrids, given the mileage difference from the newest technology, and not giving up space, I'm surprised that hasn't been happening more already. Perhaps it will also take higher gasoline prices to wake people up the the fact that 45ish mpg in the city is MUCH more desirable than 20ish mpg in the city. That would be more of a "thing" with new cars though. So far, car dealers aren't pushing them or even making very many available on lots, generally. So that gives buyers less leverage to dicker, making them relatively more expensive compared to ICE's, and gives buyers little choice as to options, color, etc. compared to ICE's. So unless dealers want to move even hybrids, I don't think your "soon" prediction is realistic.

One thing that could change this over time is solid state battery technology, greatly increasing the weight and increasing the power density of batteries, while lowering their cost meaningfully. But from what I read, that is still years away from even potentially being practical at the scale of a BEV, and we don't know if it will ever be a commercial success.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 08 Jan 2019, 13:46:12

asg70 wrote:Battery costs require economy of scale which the conversion business doesn't offer. Sure, if you want to make a stone-age lead sled out of an old VW bug you can do it on the cheap, but a car with decent range and apppointments will cost more to convert than it would to just buy an entry-level new EV. Lastly, gas cars simply aren't designed to accomodate battery packs. They're too heavy and you wind up having to lose cargo or even passenger space to cram them in.

The embodied energy wrapped up in cars and trucks with dead-man-walking powerplants is a tragedy, no doubt about it. I just don't see fleets of heavy-ass F-150 truck conversions anytime soon. Not without something like dirt-cheap ultracapacitors or something.

Plus you have the same issues overall, with Tesla today (especially outside of Southern CA and a relative handful of big cities). The middle class wants confidence in their cars via reliability, serviceability, cost predictability, etc. I just don't see that happening from Joe's EV conversion for cheap shop.

Hell, given the expense and relative reliability issues with something as simple as a significant transmission repair or replacement -- it's often better to just sell and old car for what you can get than to fool with the transmission -- unless you don't mind issues with reliability and durability compared to a car without transmission issues.

Will some people do ICE to BEV conversions? Sure. Hobbyists. Mechanics. Engineers. Adventurous car gusys. Will it become anything remotely mainstream? I just don't see it.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Tue 08 Jan 2019, 15:17:31

At some point after the Oil Peak, operating a BEV will be very much cheaper than an ICE vehicle. Only then will BEVs become mainstream, and then will gasoline and diesel fuel distribution start a decades-long decline.

How desireable is your ICE vehicle when the nearest fuel distribution is 50+ miles from your home? It is the reverse of the situation today, when EV chargers are relatively few and far between. However, remember that BEVs can also be trickle-charged from the grid at your home, and have full range the next morning.

Again, most of you are expecting the ICE-to-EV crossover to be a sudden event. This transition will take decades, and in the 3rd or 4th decade, ICE vehicles will beome non-viable, when the average distance to the nearest fuel distribution takes a significant portion of a tank of fuel to access.
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby dolanbaker » Tue 08 Jan 2019, 17:03:34

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
dolanbaker wrote:If the transition to EVs continue to escalate at the current rate, we could soon end up with a situation where the price of secondhand ICE cars falls through the floor.

The vast majority of people need and/or want cars. The price of ICE vehicles won't fall much, unless the demand for them falls sharply. That won't happen unless alternatives like BEV's are either significantly cheaper, significantly better, or some combination of both.

So I strongly disagree with "soon" if you mean in the next 5 years (and probably more like the next 10 or 15). And it's not like there will be a large proportion of used BEV's for at least a decade to flood the second hand market -- at any price, since there just won't be that many compared to the ICE fleet.

Now, if instead of pure ICE, you mean people switching to more hybrids, given the mileage difference from the newest technology, and not giving up space, I'm surprised that hasn't been happening more already. Perhaps it will also take higher gasoline prices to wake people up the the fact that 45ish mpg in the city is MUCH more desirable than 20ish mpg in the city. That would be more of a "thing" with new cars though. So far, car dealers aren't pushing them or even making very many available on lots, generally. So that gives buyers less leverage to dicker, making them relatively more expensive compared to ICE's, and gives buyers little choice as to options, colour, etc. compared to ICE's. So unless dealers want to move even hybrids, I don't think your "soon" prediction is realistic.

One thing that could change this over time is solid state battery technology, greatly increasing the weight and increasing the power density of batteries, while lowering their cost meaningfully. But from what I read, that is still years away from even potentially being practical at the scale of a BEV, and we don't know if it will ever be a commercial success.

You may be correct over there, but this side of the pond, EVs are being sold as quickly as they're available and the current models will satisfy 90% of motorists 95% of the time. The only issue is supply, so if some manufacturers were to have a programme of converting unwanted diesel vehicles to electric, there would be a ready market. Many of the so-called "crossover SUV" type of vehicles are perfect for conversion as they already have the space to fit batteries under the floor. Even normal saloon type vehicles can be converted if you modify the non-structural floorpan to take batteries.

If the conversions are limited to low mileage vehicles in near perfect condition, they'll sell at 20% below the price of new vehicles (nearly new) with the bonus of new running gear. Sales of ICE cars are dropping in general anyway due to the improvements in longevity and oversupply, plus the fact that some prospective car buyers are waiting to see what the governments are going to do about Diesels, they could be restricted from driving in some cities at certain times in the near future. These are the people who would buy a nearly new converted vehicle, rather than have to wait for delivery of a new EV.
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 08 Jan 2019, 17:33:09

dolanbaker wrote:You may be correct over there, but this side of the pond, EVs are being sold as quickly as they're available and the current models will satisfy 90% of motorists 95% of the time. The only issue is supply, so if some manufacturers were to have a programme of converting unwanted diesel vehicles to electric, there would be a ready market.

Certainly the auto market and related economics in much of Western Europe is different than in the US, given differences in driving distances required, gas taxes, public transport availability, etc.

I guess time will tell whether the new BEV market can ramp up fast enough over the next several years to (mostly) meet consumer demand, or whether there is a large enough shortfall in new BEV supply to make conversions from ICE's to BEV's a big business. IMO, too many quickly changing things re BEV's to make that easy to predict.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby dolanbaker » Tue 08 Jan 2019, 18:48:07

EVs in quarries
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qPjRHkWzBI0
https://www.theb1m.com/article/volvo-cu ... est-quarry

Hydrogen fuel cells have come on in leaps and bounds in recent years as well, they could easily do the heavy lifting stuff.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EW7TFXwduYY&t
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 08 Jan 2019, 18:56:32

dolanbaker wrote:Hydrogen fuel cells have come on in leaps and bounds in recent years as well, they could easily do the heavy lifting stuff.

Now THERE'S an interesting idea I haven't noticed in the Fuel Cell vs. BEV debate. If Fuel Cells can do the heavy duty work, and BEV's can do the light duty distance work, that starts to sound like a good proportion of the solution for replacing FF's with electricity for much of the transpo network.

I'm pretty sure Toyota isn't continuing to pursue Fuel Cells, for example, because they hope to lose lots of money.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 09 Jan 2019, 04:14:34

pstarr wrote:There is not one person on this web site who own an EV (except the guy who sells them)


You're referring to Baha with his new Model 3? He sells EVs?

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 09 Jan 2019, 11:45:01

There was a piece in Wired magazine lately that documented the production-hell at Tesla in unprecedented level of detail. Elon Musk thinks he's just being aggressive but his approach is ultimately a form of mismanagement. Engineers tend not to make good managers because they're more interested in solving problems than operations. They have trouble adopting an if it ain't broke, don't fix it approach. The end result is a lot of trial and error that is great when you have an unlimited R&D budget but not when you have to just go pencils down and ship lots of quality and reliable finished product. I think industry people realize this but Musk doesn't and this is part of why he can't retain C-level talent. So instead he just tries to run the floor himself but he's just out of his element in a lot of areas as nobody is an expert in everything.

A lot of the design considerations of the Model 3 are really not relevant at its current pricepoint. They probably could have gotten by with an all aluminum body like the Model S if that's so much of an issue. Same deal with making it a sedan vs. a small SUV. They did all this to be able to sell it at $35K and it didn't pan out so they just punted the base car indefinitely. In the short-run it hasn't shown up on the balance-sheets but he pissed off a lot of first-day reservists and the market for more of an upscale vehicle has limits.

When I look at the big picture I really think VW has a better shot than Tesla long-term. The current VW is pretty far removed from the Dieselgate scandal. All of the people involved have been purged. And it scarred them enough to want to push towards EVs as a rebranding effort. They have expertise in operating at scale where Tesla lacks. The only thing they need to prove is that they can source enough batteries.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Wed 09 Jan 2019, 14:21:02

The article above is a perfect description of working at a Silicon Valley startup company. The only wierd thing: Tesla is far too old to be considered a startup.
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby Yoshua » Wed 09 Jan 2019, 17:38:37

Burning fossil fuels to produce electricity and burning fossil fuels to produce all the machines that use electricity...will save us from using fossil fuels?

Sure...sounds like a good idea.
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby jawagord » Wed 09 Jan 2019, 20:47:56

asg70 wrote:There was a piece in Wired magazine lately that documented the production-hell at Tesla in unprecedented level of detail. Elon Musk thinks he's just being aggressive but his approach is ultimately a form of mismanagement. Engineers tend not to make good managers because they're more interested in solving problems than operations. They have trouble adopting an if it ain't broke, don't fix it approach. The end result is a lot of trial and error that is great when you have an unlimited R&D budget but not when you have to just go pencils down and ship lots of quality and reliable finished product. I think industry people realize this but Musk doesn't and this is part of why he can't retain C-level talent. So instead he just tries to run the floor himself but he's just out of his element in a lot of areas as nobody is an expert in everything.


Maybe he didn't hire the right engineers?

Manufacturing Engineering

An industrial production expert, the manufacturing engineer researches and develops ways of designing, building, and shipping products on time and within budget.

A manufacturing engineer determines the best ways to use machinery to maximise efficiency – keeping costs down and increasing company profits. When new machinery is required it’s the manufacturing engineer who researches the current technology and techniques to make sure that the most appropriate equipment is purchased and it is integrated in the most efficient way possible.


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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 10 Jan 2019, 01:07:19

jawagord wrote:Maybe he didn't hire the right engineers?


Maybe for some of them but he poached a lot of good people from other companies including a manufacturing guy from Audi. The problem is once they started at Tesla Musk told them not to follow standard procedures and to do untested moonshot type stuff like "alien dreadnought" which turned out to be a cluster-F. That's part of the reason for all of the turnover. When you bring someone in they are going to expect to apply what they've learned, not tell them to throw out the rulebook. It sounds sexy and disruptive but there's a reason there's a rulebook and if you're going to deviate from it you have to make a damn good argument, one which Musk didn't make.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
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HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 10 Jan 2019, 01:21:37

Yoshua wrote:Burning fossil fuels to produce electricity and burning fossil fuels to produce all the machines that use electricity...will save us from using fossil fuels?

Sure...sounds like a good idea.

So in your world, solar cells, wind, wave, geothermal, etc. is fossil fuels?

Well, that's as credible as your economic theories and claims -- i.e. not at all.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby Yoshua » Thu 10 Jan 2019, 02:08:08

A solar panel won't even produce enough energy to produce another solar panel...and the infrastructure...and the machines that consume electricity...and the batteries.

And they don't work at night and during winter...or on a cloudy day.

Good luck!
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby careinke » Thu 10 Jan 2019, 04:47:29

Yoshua wrote:A solar panel won't even produce enough energy to produce another solar panel....


No, but ten will, and they will do it over and over and over.....
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 10 Jan 2019, 05:34:42

Yoshua wrote:A solar panel won't even produce enough energy to produce another solar panel...and the infrastructure...and the machines that consume electricity...and the batteries.

And they don't work at night and during winter...or on a cloudy day.

Good luck!

Re intermittency, as if batteries didn't exist. As if Musk isn't demonstrating good battery backup power at commercial scale (it seems to me he's better at this than making and servicing quality cars) You're living in the past.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby Yoshua » Thu 10 Jan 2019, 07:44:36

In a future world, with 10 percent of today's population, located around hydro power stations, an electric civilization might flourish.
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby Cog » Thu 10 Jan 2019, 09:16:03

Have you moved to a dam yet?
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 10 Jan 2019, 10:48:12

Yoshua wrote:A solar panel won't even produce enough energy to produce another solar panel...and the infrastructure...and the machines that consume electricity...and the batteries.
And they don't work at night and during winter...or on a cloudy day.


The Koch brothers thank you and other similar doomers for furthering the cause of FUD.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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