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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Sat 13 Jul 2019, 12:09:57

@Outcast Searcher,
I do very much what you say that you do, though I am business owner and this requires a degree of resourcefulness these days.
Regarding doom, I think, we are turning into 3rd world right now and this alone qualifies as a sort of doom (you may call it soft landing though).
New pass time for some Americans:
https://www.bitchute.com/video/WgheGP_RZGQ/
It doesn't look reassuring, does it?
These type of developments are suggesting death by 1000 cuts, not any particular "doom event".
By myself I think that odds of sharp hardcore doom in next 20 years is higher than 1%.
I would say 10-30% and the only realistic risk is that of global nuclear war.
But "thirdworldization" is already a done deal.
It is wise to cater for it.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby Yoshua » Mon 15 Jul 2019, 09:23:09

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby Yoshua » Mon 15 Jul 2019, 10:31:17

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 15 Jul 2019, 13:00:48

Yoshua wrote:S&P 500

The top is in?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D_hTb65XYAE ... name=large



The top isnt in yet. Not until the rate cuts are over. The crack head needs more crack. We’ll see a 1/4 cut this week. Or is that next week they meet? Either way, 1/4 pt cut is coming. That will cause the markets to break another record.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 15 Jul 2019, 13:09:36

Yoshua wrote:S&P 500

The top is in?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D_hTb65XYAE ... name=large

Looking at your posts the past month, you sure do like to claim that prices of things like stock and oil, that the economy, etc. is about to go down. Short term calls.

And of course, a track record of zero, until you get lucky once.

And the benefit of this is what?

If you finally ask if the top is in, and the top is actually in, do you then say "I called it"?

Do you trade on your beliefs? If so, it's hard to believe the results are good.

I've noticed various financial newsletter blogs (in the paper financial newsletter day) liked to market this way. They just show a dozen or so good calls over the last decade and omit the hundred or so neutral to wrong calls. Sadly for them, the internet is now a thing which one can consult.

...

I don't pretend to know the short term ups and downs, and don't think anyone who is credible does know or claim to. I do claim to be long the stock markets roughly 50% consistently over several decades, and decade after decade the combination of dividends, interest, and long term capital gains serves me just fine and lets me sleep at night. (And yes, the markets are volatile. And yes, in the short run, sometimes there are capital losses. Volatility is the price we pay to earn the long term great stock market returns. For me, the 50%ish long stocks rule cushions the volatility enough to make it well worth putting up with).

The few trades I make tend to be at real extremes (selling oil stocks in mid 2008, buying them back in early 2009, buying some S&P 500 Index in the chaos in late 2008 amid all the panic, for example). However, I'm willing to patiently wait for a decade or more for such trades to work out, as the odds improve so much.

For example, buying oil stocks I was holding for the long term at a third of what I'd sold them for 7 months before was hard to get hurt too much on, over time, IMO. Or I figured buying the S&P 500 at a dividend of 4+% was good over time, even if the stock market took a good decade to recover due to bad economic times.

Perspective, patience, and no debt seems a better plan than a constant rash of calls, of which a huge proportion are random and end up wrong.

But of course, (I'll take a stab, here) if it's the end of the financial world in short order THIS time, and you just "know" that, then it doesn't matter, right? :roll:

For what it's worth, I think I'm in Buffett's and the former Bogle's camp, but they advocate for a higher proportion of stocks, for those who can stomach the volatility. Their track records and writings speak for themselves.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 15 Jul 2019, 13:11:45

Armageddon wrote:
Yoshua wrote:S&P 500

The top is in?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D_hTb65XYAE ... name=large



The top isnt in yet. Not until the rate cuts are over. The crack head needs more crack. We’ll see a 1/4 cut this week. Or is that next week they meet? Either way, 1/4 pt cut is coming. That will cause the markets to break another record.

Well, the markets like the idea of rate cuts short term. And they dislike threats of a trade war. And there are a blizzard of other things going on in the economy.

But YOU, of course, claim you can negotiate all that and call the markets reasonably accurately. But of course, you can't, as your predictions and results over the last decade amply demonstrate.

But do carry on. It's amusing.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 15 Jul 2019, 14:46:34

Booming economy? Not according to the Cass Freight Shipment data. The Cass Index is negative for the 7th month in a row. This just ain't exports to China, this reflects declining domestic economic activity


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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 15 Jul 2019, 15:26:29

The Cass Freight Index: A Measure of North American Freight Activity | “With the -5.3% drop in June following the -6.0% drop in May, we repeat...the shipments index has gone from ‘warning of a potential slowdown’ to “signaling an economic contraction.’”


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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 15 Jul 2019, 15:36:57

Armageddon wrote:The Cass Freight Index: A Measure of North American Freight Activity | “With the -5.3% drop in June following the -6.0% drop in May, we repeat...the shipments index has gone from ‘warning of a potential slowdown’ to “signaling an economic contraction.’”

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For the UMPTEENTH time:

1). We may have a recession. So what? It's not like after a decade of US and global economic growth (unlike the claims of many doomers who call growth a recession or depression), that a recession, which is a perfectly natural thing, isn't well overdue.

2). And, shipping slowdowns are only natural, given all the moaning you've been doing re lower cap goods orders, slower auto sales, etc. Right?

a). Or do you not even realize that?

b). How many cries of doom have we seen on this site in the past 10ish years over the Baltic Dry Index, re shipping slowdowns equalling catastrophe? And they're been wrong 100% of the time, so there's that.

c). And much of the angst re capital goods plans is likely related to tariff concerns, unless you only read the doomer press? I'd say a lot. But of course, if all you do is try to cherry pick doom, you wouldn't want to admit that.

...

3). And of course, recession isn't "collapse", but when spreading FUD is one's hobby, reality is a secondary concern.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 15 Jul 2019, 15:43:34

For the millionth time.....

In 2008, they invented QE 1,2 and 3, had ZIRP, trillions in buyout and bailouts and printed trillions. We are headed right back there. So Einstein, tell us all how they plan to stop this one? Especially with only 2% of FED percentage points.

Also, in 2008, China was booming and was the engine that held up the world economy. They are collapsing faster than the US and most of Europe and Asia are either contracting or near contraction and also near 0% interest rates.
Last edited by Armageddon on Mon 15 Jul 2019, 16:51:04, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby Yoshua » Mon 15 Jul 2019, 16:17:35

The stock market is of course a debt fueled bubble and a rate cute and talk about QE might just create a blow out.

Last year when the global debt started to contract, the stock markets started to fall apart as well in a credit event.

I guess the crash won't come like a lightning from a blue sky. It will probably be announced by a credit contraction, by defaults and by bankruptcies.

Jim Rogers has noticed that the bankruptcies have already started in the periphery: Argentina, Turkey, banks in India and China...
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 15 Jul 2019, 17:48:15

Singapore's second quarter annualized GDP growth rate shows 3.4% DECLINE, worst in 7 yrs&reminiscent of Great Financial Crisis aftermath. with electronic exports falling 6% leading the downturn.

#globalcollapse
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 16 Jul 2019, 11:14:10

Last year when the global debt started to contract


Global debt did not decline. The rate of global debt formation is declining, and that is because the debt is getting bigger. Compared to the previous year it is the rate of growth that is lower, not the debt. Since most of the present debt formation is the service cost on the previous debt, unless that debt is paid off, it will continue to increase. The debt is not being paid off! Government agency debt, corporate debt and personal debt continue to increase.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby Cog » Tue 16 Jul 2019, 11:32:38

Oh the noes. The stock market is at an all time high. Whatever shall I do? I got it. I should take advice from the perpetually wrong. That will surely save me from financial doom.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 16 Jul 2019, 12:24:44

US manufacturing remains in free fall. Second quarter production down 1.2% following a 1.9% decline in the first three months of the year. The President needs to tell the American people the truth- the US economy is in trouble


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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 16 Jul 2019, 12:46:39

Since most of the present debt formation is the service cost on the previous debt, unless that debt is paid off, it will continue to increase.


When debt is acquired it is at a particular rate. That debt may be fixed or allowed to fluctuate some percentage around inflation but usually is at a fixed rate. As an example in the oil and gas business debt that is taken on can run the range from best rates (5-6% up to mezzanine rates of 12%). If a company or individual or country for that matter is paying off the interest charges then the debt doesn't increase, it would only increase if more debt is taken on.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby GHung » Tue 16 Jul 2019, 16:21:15

rockdoc123 wrote:
......., If a company or individual or country for that matter is paying off the interest charges then the debt doesn't increase, it would only increase if more debt is taken on.


Then, again, if said country is paying the interest on existing debt while accumulating new debt? That's where many (most?) countries find themselves; in a seemingly endless cycle. At some point something will have to give, generally in the form of a big reset. Plenty of metaphors for that.

Musical chairs seems about right.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 16 Jul 2019, 18:03:42

Then, again, if said country is paying the interest on existing debt while accumulating new debt?


which is not what Shortonoil claimed. But go ahead and try to obfuscate. :roll:
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby GHung » Tue 16 Jul 2019, 18:12:19

rockdoc123 wrote:
Then, again, if said country is paying the interest on existing debt while accumulating new debt?


which is not what Shortonoil claimed. But go ahead and try to obfuscate. :roll:


Suggesting I'm paying attention to Short? Uh ,,,,,,,
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 16 Jul 2019, 21:35:37

Singapore exports slump even further, down 17.3% in June - CNA “... marking the fourth straight month of double-digit decline, data from trade agency Enterprise Singapore showed on Wednesday.
This was worse than the 9.9 per cent contraction predicted.”

#globalcollapse
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