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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 11 Jul 2019, 16:55:48

shortonoil wrote:
There might be a rate cut. There might be a recession.

Doom for sure.


Since the stock market has already priced in a cut, at least 3 times, how are they ever going to get the S&P over 3000 at closing. Powell should be interested in one of Bullwinkle’s magic hats about now. Otherwise some trader is going to inherit a life time supply of S&P 3000 hats. This is one cut that will have no effect on the market because it already did. Zero, the point that the banking system starts coming apart isn't far away at this rate.

Maybe instead of hand-wringing over day to day returns, you should step back and look at the big picture. A BALANCED picture including assets AND debt. Including earnings over time. Including things like productivity, efficiency, etc.

But no, that might interfere with your world view. :roll:

Meanwhile, worrying about whether the S&P 500 hits 3000 short term (we're .09 from that at the close -- I'm sure that will feed your conspiracy delirium) is meaningless. Especially if we might have a recession which could drive it down 500 or 1000 or more in the next X years. (If you can't deal with volatility, don't be in stocks). (I deal with it by only being about half in stocks. I can live with lower long term returns, and I like sleeping every night.)

However, the odds that it will cross 3000 meaningfully in the next 10 years, 20 years, and especially 30 years are VERY high indeed, if you take a balanced look at the world and at history.

And don't take my word for it. Try a calculator: https://dqydj.com/sp-500-historical-return-calculator/

The 10, 20, and 30 year returns for the S&P 500 index including dividends and adjusted for inflation, per the above calculator, were close enough to 6.7% annual returns, that it's not worth arguing about. 40 year returns "only" about 6.4% (oh, the horror).

See by how much that dwarfs worrying about the day to day wiggles? 8O

Less delusions, and focus longer than that of a gnat would almost certainly improve the track record of the fast crash doomers.

But, no, they could never do that, since they are so much "smarter" than everyone else -- as if their horrible track record counted for nothing, so we should listen to them THIS time. :idea:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 11 Jul 2019, 17:07:18

Cog wrote:But it didn't collapse and neither will it collapse now. But good luck with all that doomerism. I am having a good laugh.

Funny how since he read something, given the crap he reads, that makes it all true -- like, for sure even. :roll:

Yeah, and I read today that Fed Chief Powell says the relationship between inflation and unemployment is "gone". From a fairly credible source. (CNBC).

But yet, if one reads beyond the headline, he didn't say that at all. He said it has diminished, which appears pretty obvious to anyone who looks at the markets and is more intelligent than, say, a carrot.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/11/the-fed ... -gone.html

In fact, he said this:

“At the end of the day, there has to be a connection because low employment will drive wages up and ultimately higher wages will drive inflation, but we haven’t reached that point. In many cases, that connection between the two is quite small these days,” the Fed chief says.


Somehow, "there has to be a connection" is not exactly saying that the relationship is GONE. :lol:

When CNBC gets things this wrong, just imagine how wrong the typical doomer blog gets things. Then take the wild distortion antics Armageddon and Shorty throw in re their "economic wisdom". :o

Like, say, about how hyperinflation is such a problem when in the real world, not enough inflation in the US is actually a real concern for professional economists, and politicians who want to be elected.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 11 Jul 2019, 19:12:20

You suckers swallow everything they say. These are the same people who back in 2007 said the economy in roaring. Then in 2008-2009 they said they never saw it coming.

Gullible sheep, baaahhhhh.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 11 Jul 2019, 19:59:02

You suckers swallow everything they say.


says the person who regularly uses Zerohedge as his go to source. :roll:

These are the same people who back in 2007 said the economy in roaring. Then in 2008-2009 they said they never saw it coming.


whereas you have been calling for a market crash to end all crashes since at least 2011. How did that work out for you? :roll:
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 11 Jul 2019, 20:19:33

rockdoc123 wrote:
You suckers swallow everything they say.


says the person who regularly uses Zerohedge as his go to source. :roll:

These are the same people who back in 2007 said the economy in roaring. Then in 2008-2009 they said they never saw it coming.


whereas you have been calling for a market crash to end all crashes since at least 2011. How did that work out for you? :roll:




I called the 2008 crash too. Never thought they could kick the can down the road this far, but they are out of road now. The 2008 debt crises is now 2x as big as it was back then. They had 6% of FED rate cuts to use, they now have 2%. Good luck with that. Uncharted waters we are in.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 11 Jul 2019, 20:40:10

I called the 2008 crash too.


you don't have any other mantra other than crash, crash, crash. Broken clock syndrome

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 11 Jul 2019, 21:33:09

rockdoc123 wrote:
I called the 2008 crash too.


you don't have any other mantra other than crash, crash, crash. Broken clock syndrome

Image




Considering the debt they are creating, a crash is the only outcome. They’ve created an unsustainable system and there’s no other way it will end. We are on the verge of multi trillion dollar deficits with exponential growth.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 11 Jul 2019, 22:18:18

Armageddon wrote:These are the same people who back in 2007 said the economy in roaring.


Not true. I used to read a blog called Housing Panic back in 2007. I knew a housing crash was coming. I didn't know how severe, but I saw it coming...independently of the oil price runup.

This time around, frankly, I don't really care whether the financial system goes the way you're saying or not, because all it really does is create a chaos situation a decade or two in advance of global warming. What difference does it really make? Your precious metals won't save you from that.

I get that you're trying to shock and scare us, but we're all pretty much old-timers here. We've gone through our stages of grief. Stop expecting us to come across like we're pissing our pants. We have not blindly chosen how we lead our lives. If we don't want to dump our net worth into precious metals, that's our prerogative. (BTW, for the record, I have a small amount of money in PM).
ATTN: SHORT LOST A BET AND HE WON'T EVEN ADMIT HE MADE ONE. HIS POSTS HAVE NO CREDIBILITY AND HE SHOULD NOT BE WELCOME HERE
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby Cog » Fri 12 Jul 2019, 03:53:27

Recession does not equal collapse no matter how much the doomer gang wants it to be the case. Bear markets do not equal collapse either. Like outcast searcher indicated, those of us who have been in the market for the long term, have pretty much seen all of this transpire before. We collect our dividends, decide on our risk level, sell stock for a profit on occasion, and sleep rather well at night. Its hard to beat the market for wealth generation over the long term.

Oh yeah and in before "This time is different". Its always been different doomers.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 12 Jul 2019, 07:49:43

DHL Sounds Alarm On Collapsing World Trade: "Significant Downturn" Underway

A new quarterly report from logistics company DHL, measured global air and sea cargo trade volumes between March and June, found trade data continues to deteriorate in the US and China as there is still no resolution to end the trade war, reported South China Morning Post (SCMP).


Image

So, like the two other times, when macro matters again global stocks will crash.


Then again maybe the skyrocketing global debt that is driven by the coming end of the oil age is what is crushing world wide enterprise? Like global warming it is considered inconceivable that it could be anything other than human activities. The natural phenomena that has existed since the beginning of time must be ignored, or the stories that economists tell might not be taken seriously. People can become difficult to control if they aren't willing to believe the ridiculous.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07- ... n-underway

"I Thought The Numbers Would Be Bad, But This Is Ugly" - Singapore Economy Unexpectedly Tumbles; Chinese Exports Slide

The latest confirmation that global trade is suffering its gloomiest period since the financial crisis, if not outright depressionary as we pointed out two months ago...

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07- ... es-chinese

Of course, a world buried in $319 trillion in debt, couldn't have anything to do with it spending less money. Why would spending money slow down because the world is running out of it? That is just a fairy tale like depletion!
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby Cog » Fri 12 Jul 2019, 08:04:44

Once the tariff war with China is settled in the USA favor, trade will resume. In the meantime, carry on perma-doomers.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Fri 12 Jul 2019, 10:35:41

Cog wrote:Once the tariff war with China is settled in the USA favor, trade will resume. In the meantime, carry on perma-doomers.

I suspect that it will go in a different way.
Major splits in global trade, iron courtains, military buildups, several reserve currencies (and gold as the only way to settle deals between competing blocks).
These are examples of outcomes to be expected.
Trade war won't be won by US nor China but global tensions are likely to grow.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 12 Jul 2019, 10:53:49

JUST IN: Steven Mnuchin says the U.S. will run out of cash by September


No big deal, Just print a few more trillion. It’s just paper.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Fri 12 Jul 2019, 11:20:31

@Armagedon,
These days money are rather *typed* not printed.
So with access to right computer you could make $100000000000000000000000000000000000 in about 2-3 seconds.
Do you need more?
Type $10^10000000000000
BTW, the number above is far greater than a number of Planck volumes in Hubble volume (~10^385).
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 12 Jul 2019, 12:14:05

EnergyUnlimited wrote:@Armagedon,
These days money are rather *typed* not printed.
So with access to right computer you could make $100000000000000000000000000000000000 in about 2-3 seconds.
Do you need more?
Type $10^10000000000000
BTW, the number above is far greater than a number of Planck volumes in Hubble volume (~10^385).



Indeed
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 12 Jul 2019, 13:09:33

Cog wrote:Once the tariff war with China is settled in the USA favor, trade will resume. In the meantime, carry on perma-doomers.

The perma-doomers certainly won't admit that the main issue in the short term is fears about trade.

But of course, if all the FUD they're typing can be explained away with simple logic, or perspective, they're not going to like that.

Funny how with all the constant braying about global debt, nary a comment about global assets, global profits, global earnings, global GDP over time.

Except of course for the various nonsensical claims that 10+ years of growth is a "depression", people in the first world generally can't afford motor fuel, hyperinflation is imminent since multiplication is a thing, calling every minor correction or even downward blip in statistics a "crash", etc.

Yup, credibility indeed. :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Fri 12 Jul 2019, 13:23:09

Outcast_Searcher wrote:The perma-doomers certainly...
Yup, credibility indeed.

They only need to be right once though...
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 12 Jul 2019, 14:00:12

They only need to be right once though...


They will be right when the liquidity in the system is no longer sufficient to cover the service cost of the debt. When the credit markets can no longer absorb what the Central Banks need to print to cover that debt it will be D day for the financial system. At $7.88 trillion a year, and climbing rapidly we don't have long to wait.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 12 Jul 2019, 14:13:22

EnergyUnlimited wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:The perma-doomers certainly...
Yup, credibility indeed.

They only need to be right once though...

So we hide under our beds our entire lives? And get coming generations of our families and friends to do the same? And that accomplishes what, exactly, besides supporting the doom-for-profit industry?

Or, we can live our financial lives in a prudent, balanced, way, and get on with our lives, as the most practical measure, since we can't control it if herds of space aliens attack, or whatever, anyway.

By living almost debt free (I did have one car loan to establish some credit early on, and did have one credit card, which I always paid off every month with zero interest paid -- so it was for convenience, not taking on debt). As for debt, that's IT. And I retired comfortably for maintaining my lifestyle of choice at age 48, by living frugally. Not painfully. Not suffering because I did without things I really needed like food, shelter, health care, reasonably comfortable furniture (if my back got to hurting -- I replaced the problem, for example), a car that was reasonably reliable, etc.

Just without all the often expensive NONSENSE that a huge proportion of first worlders and especially Americans feel they must have to "keep up with the Joneses", even while they carp about money problems, how they can never retire, etc.

So there's balance. There's common sense. There's planning ahead for the probable and desirable with sufficient means like retirement, and the inevitable (like old age and needing some help, unless you die young).

Having a doomstead might buy someone a month or so in an extreme event, if they get lucky. But if it's really WWIII or giant meteor strike, or anything else that has the zombie horde out and pervasively banding together to attack any viable food source, I'm NOT buying that 98% plus of the doomsteads are going to allow their owners to live a happy, productive life for decades while the rest of humanity dies due to lack of resources, disease, etc. And I think the extreme event is on the order of under 1% likely over the next several decades -- not the certainty or near-certainty the fast crash doomers try to claim. So there's that.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby Cog » Fri 12 Jul 2019, 17:42:30

This stock market crash has been very profitable for most people since 2009. Maybe we are doing it wrong.
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