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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 10 Jul 2019, 11:48:06

Armageddon wrote:Goldman Sachs says Fed. rate cut probability this month now 100%

There might be a rate cut. There might be a recession.

Doom for sure. :roll:

Next?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 10 Jul 2019, 12:06:23

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Armageddon wrote:Goldman Sachs says Fed. rate cut probability this month now 100%

There might be a rate cut. There might be a recession.

Doom for sure. :roll:

Next?




Its going to make 2008 look like a picnic. 2008 on steroids.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 10 Jul 2019, 15:05:23

Armageddon wrote:Its going to make 2008 look like a picnic. 2008 on steroids.

And of course, you saying that repeatedly, even as you waffle on lots of stuff re the details, timing, etc. of your predictions, and even as you've been dead wrong for quite a few years on various doomer claims means that SURELY, you are correct on this. :roll:

If only things like reputation, track record, credibility of sources, etc. didn't matter. Unfortunately for your ilk, in the real world, they do.

But don't worry, I'm sure the hard core fast crash perma-doomer crowd are fans.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 10 Jul 2019, 15:12:24

There might be a rate cut. There might be a recession.

Doom for sure.


Since the stock market has already priced in a cut, at least 3 times, how are they ever going to get the S&P over 3000 at closing. Powell should be interested in one of Bullwinkle’s magic hats about now. Otherwise some trader is going to inherit a life time supply of S&P 3000 hats. This is one cut that will have no effect on the market because it already did. Zero, the point that the banking system starts coming apart isn't far away at this rate.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 10 Jul 2019, 16:01:27

What would have happened in 2008 without QE 1,2,3, ZIRP, bailouts, buyouts, trillions of stimulus?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 11 Jul 2019, 08:10:54

What would have happened in 2008 without QE 1,2,3, ZIRP, bailouts, buyouts, trillions of stimulus?


Chances are bankruptcies would have continued to increase, instead of peaking in 2010. Rather, total world indebtedness has grown from $84.6 trillion in 2010 to $318.5 trillion at present. It bought the US a decade, but Asia, and Europe are now falling through the floor. So far, at the end of the oil age, the US is still the last man standing. That will end in 2022 when interest rates have no further to fall, and the banking system collapses. Goldman believes that their crypto currency can solve that problem; I think they have rocks in their head. Money is just a proxy for energy, and diluted road tar with over priced camel pea bought with GoldmanCoins is hardly going to be the answer.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby marmico » Thu 11 Jul 2019, 08:34:10

Rather, total world indebtedness has grown from $84.6 trillion in 2010 to $318.5 trillion at present.


More BS from Bozo Bedford as he unsuccessfully pivots away from his 5 year old ETP Bozo moniker.

World debt (including the financial sector) numbers in USD are $203 trillion in 2011 and $243 trillion in 2018.

http://files.clickdimensions.com/iifcom ... ril_vf.pdf
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 11 Jul 2019, 08:43:37

Armageddon wrote:What would have happened in 2008 without QE 1,2,3, ZIRP, bailouts, buyouts, trillions of stimulus?


And why does that matter? Crisis was averted. Show a little gratitude.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 11 Jul 2019, 09:20:29

asg70 wrote:
Armageddon wrote:What would have happened in 2008 without QE 1,2,3, ZIRP, bailouts, buyouts, trillions of stimulus?


And why does that matter? Crisis was averted. Show a little gratitude.



Averted or pushed back to a further date? What was solved? With only 2% points of FED ammo and heading into a recession, we are going to find out what would happened very soon.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby Yoshua » Thu 11 Jul 2019, 10:26:35

"I’m still waiting for the good folks at
@zerohedge
to explain their theory of how higher rates would lead to faster wage growth."

Neel Kashkari - Federal Reserve

Time to cut rates to zero and restart QE...before the economy tanks and the revolt starts.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby Yoshua » Thu 11 Jul 2019, 10:31:40

The federal funds rate hit rock bottom and the economy needed QE in addition to save the economy after 2008.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D_M_bLrWsAA ... name=large
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 11 Jul 2019, 11:02:01

Armageddon wrote:What would have happened in 2008 without QE 1,2,3, ZIRP, bailouts, buyouts, trillions of stimulus?


The mega banks would have collapsed and been broken up into smaller functional bits. Joe6P would have benefited greatly from the recovery. Big money people owning majorities in those mega banks would have suffered some paper losses.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 11 Jul 2019, 11:54:34

World debt (including the financial sector) numbers in USD are $203 trillion in 2011 and $243 trillion in 2018.


The rise in global debt slowed sharply in 2018 Fol-
lowing a substantial rise of $21 trillion in 2017, the pace of debt accumulation was
much slower at just $3.3 trillion in 2018

http://files.clickdimensions.com/iifcom ... ril_vf.pdf

IFF looks like they are pumping the money monkey for someone. The IMF doesn't agree with them, or McKinsey. So we are supposed to believe that after more than a decade of constant growth the debt formation process just suddenly took hiatus of 90% in one year. Sure! It is especially hard to believe since the PBOC printed more than that all by themselves.

But our resident sleaze ball, conman, and disinformation specialist didn't quote the IFF, which is a recognized global organization run by a bunch of big banks. He quoted a private firm that hijacked the IFF name, and is run by a pack of ex-Indian and Pakistani goat herders. Another Marmy spectacular piece of bullshit.

Institute of international finance
iif.com © Copyright 2019. The Institute of International Finance, Inc.

The IFF doesn't have an Inc. after its name.

So when does the big, smash, bangup, collapse begin. It is our hypothesis that it will occur when the interest rate falls too low for the banking system to survive. That is dependent upon the Capital Returns of the world's assets, which interest rates follow. By 2022 the average world capital return will fall to about where it was in 1920; at 1.71%. The world's food production will be following close behind. In 1920 the world's population was 1.83 billion; it is now 7.4.

Starting a garden, and raising a few chickens might be a good idea about now!

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby Yoshua » Thu 11 Jul 2019, 12:58:30

Higher rates/yields will kill the economy/corporations.

Lower rates/yields/returns will kill the banks.

Well...that seems to be a hard problem to solve.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 11 Jul 2019, 15:02:36

Seriously.. who can defend this? As the President tweeted "DJIA hit 27,000 for the first time ever earlier today! Why will he not address this- the June US budget deficit was $8 billion, a $747 billion shortfall for fiscal year TO DATE, Treasury reports... Wow.


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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 11 Jul 2019, 15:10:04

Higher rates/yields will kill the economy/corporations.

Lower rates/yields/returns will kill the banks.

Well...that seems to be a hard problem to solve.


And; higher debt levels, which the world is experiencing in spades, are deflationary. How much of the Chinese current account surplus was Chinese cleverness, and how much was exploding debt. Now Trump is talking about Europe's excessive trade balance. In any kind of a balanced world economy this does not happen. Trade wars have been pretty rare over the last half century. World debt will blow the brains out of globalism. By the end of the oil age the world will once again be driven by regional economies. The reality will not go over well with the MIC that depends on a world of far flung mud huts to blow up
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 11 Jul 2019, 15:26:05

the June US budget deficit was $8 billion, a $747 billion shortfall for fiscal year TO DATE, Treasury reports... Wow.


Talking about debt has graduated to the same level as talking about your kids cases of leprosy. It is no longer allowed in polite circles. The "debt" word is taboo. The power of the internet (for whom ever owns it). Maybe congress will pass some late night secession to sell some bonds that nobody is going to buy. The FED will have then bought themselves 453 old farts in Patton shoes. Democracies die when they go broke. Just ask the Greeks.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 11 Jul 2019, 15:36:47

shortonoil wrote:
the June US budget deficit was $8 billion, a $747 billion shortfall for fiscal year TO DATE, Treasury reports... Wow.


Talking about debt has graduated to the same level as talking about your kids cases of leprosy. It is no longer allowed in polite circles. The "debt" word is taboo. The power of the internet (for whom ever owns it). Maybe congress will pass some late night secession to sell some bonds that nobody is going to buy. The FED will have then bought themselves 453 old farts in Patton shoes. Democracies die when they go broke. Just ask the Greeks.




On pace for a 1.5 trillion deficit this year. Just wait until this recession takes hold and the receipts start falling. 2020 will easily exceed 2 trillion. We’ll be multi trillion in the coming years.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 11 Jul 2019, 15:41:45

Tanada wrote:
Armageddon wrote:What would have happened in 2008 without QE 1,2,3, ZIRP, bailouts, buyouts, trillions of stimulus?


The mega banks would have collapsed and been broken up into smaller functional bits. Joe6P would have benefited greatly from the recovery. Big money people owning majorities in those mega banks would have suffered some paper losses.




I read that the credit market nearly froze up. Without credit, the JIT delivery system would have collapsed.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby Cog » Thu 11 Jul 2019, 16:36:00

But it didn't collapse and neither will it collapse now. But good luck with all that doomerism. I am having a good laugh.
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