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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby Yoshua » Tue 09 Jul 2019, 03:11:15

The technicals are indicating that Deutsche Bank is about to turn into a penny stock by the en of this year.

European banks can't even survive with zero rates and QE. Something is rotten in Europe.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D_BIdTfXYAc ... name=large
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 09 Jul 2019, 08:14:22

30% Of The Companies In The Russell Are Unprofitable

A global economy awash in debt (both at record levels) is forcing both policymakers and markets to accept the fact that the neutral rate of interest is lower than either thought possible just 6 months ago. Fold in a global economic slowdown, necessitating a monetary policy response, and you get today’s ultra-low yield environment

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07- ... profitable

As world debt growth advances in lock step with petroleum's depletion curve, and capital returns decline with growing debt (interest rates are following close behind), it will be the smaller, and less capitalized firms that will be the first to fail. Access to ever declining capital reserves, as the world cannibalizes its existing assets, will be available mostly to the larger, more influential, and better connected financial empires. The end of the oil age will become a dystopian night mare of mega corporations. Soylent Green comes readily to mind.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby GHung » Tue 09 Jul 2019, 09:13:24

AdamB wrote:..... Because you can't find anything related to the faux stock market crash that is the topic of the thread?


But wait!

Here's another scary sign from the bond market

New York (CNN Business) Something happened in the bond market last week that has occurred before five of the past six major market meltdowns.
The yield on the benchmark 30-year US Treasury bond — the lesser-known but still important fixed income cousin to the 10-year — briefly dipped below 2.5%. In other words, the 30-year was yielding less than the Federal Reserve's short-term federal funds rate.
It's yet another example of the craziness in the bond market right now. It costs less to borrow money for a period of decades than just a few months — a phenomenon known as an inverted yield curve.
The most widely watched yield curve, measuring the difference between the rates for the 3-month US bond and 10-year Treasury, flipped in late May.

The inversion of the 30-year and federal funds rate has happened only six times since 1980. And five of those times it took place just before a significant pullback in stocks: the double-dip recessions of 1980-1982, the savings and loan crisis of the late 1980s, the Asian debt crisis of 1997, the bursting of the tech bubble in 2000 and the Great Recession of 2008.
Tavi Costa, a global macro analyst with Crescat Capital, noted that historical trend in a tweet last week. The only time in the past four decades when the 30-year yield fell below the fed funds rate and was not followed by an immediate crisis was 1986, he added. .....

https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/08/investin ... index.html


......but I'm sure one of you will insist that "correlation does not imply causation", or somesuch.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 09 Jul 2019, 09:54:08

30% Of The Companies In The Russell Are Unprofitable


And so what? Like you the article you link to at Zerobrains simply makes that statement without any backup. As it turns out they are doing the same tired old thing of not understanding the difference between cash profits versus accounting profits, instead choosing to rely on a number that includes non-cash items that are not important to the immediate bottom line (i.e. cash profits). As well, perhaps you missed it but this index is specifically for small-cap stocks and mutual funds. The whole goal for these companies is near term growth (which is what their investors want), not near term profit. As a consequence, they will plow back all revenues (and then some) into growing the company. That is one of the reasons they are in that index in the first place. Making a statement like "30% Of The Companies In The Russell Are Unprofitable" isn't much different than saying something like "the majority of large men shop at Big and Tall shops". :roll:
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby marmico » Tue 09 Jul 2019, 10:28:40

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Source: The Leuthold Group as published by Bloomberg July 24, 2018.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 09 Jul 2019, 11:05:12

rockdoc123 wrote:
30% Of The Companies In The Russell Are Unprofitable


And so what?

...

As well, perhaps you missed it but this index is specifically for small-cap stocks and mutual funds. The whole goal for these companies is near term growth (which is what their investors want), not near term profit.

Given his lack of financial acumen, I doubt he realized it. However, it wouldn't matter. Clearly the motive of doomers like shorty and Armageddon is to spread doomer FUD -- NOT to report accurate, meaningful financial data, in context, or to make a valid point.

The lack of quality of their MANY claims, borne out over time by a horrendous track record re accuracy or timing of such predictions, says it all.

I'm glad people answer the drivel with sanity and context and real data, once in a while. Same for the chart by Marm. You get some context, and suddenly 30% looks quite normal indeed.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 09 Jul 2019, 12:40:46

German Chemical Giant BASF Tumbles After "Shocking" Profit Warning

As a reminder, last week we showed using Factset data, that the number of companies issuing negative guidance had risen to the second highest on record.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07- ... it-warning

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If the market ever discovers that the decline in corpoarate profits is the result of petroleum's ongoing depletion event the world that we have grown to know will disappear!

DAILY UPDATE (July 8th to 10th) Economy Continues to Weaken / Annual Payroll Growth Slowed to a 17-Month Low in June, Gaining 224,000 Jobs On Top of Some
Downside Revisions / Unemployment Conditions Deteriorated, With Headline U.3 Rounding up by 0.1% but With the Broader Measures Gaining a Full 0.1% / Full-Time Employment Gained for the First Time in Four Months / May 2019 Real Merchandise Trade Deficit Widened on Top of a Revised Deeper April Deficit, Suggestive of a Negative Hit to Second-Quarter GDP / Consumer Liquidity Continues to Deteriorate / May Real Median Household Income Dropped by 0.6% (-0.6%), Amidst Slowing Annual Growth / May Construction Spending Showed Deepening Year-to-Year Declines, Last Seen at the Onset of the Great Recession / Second-Quarter Real Construction Spending Is on Track for a Fourth Consecutive Annual Decline.

http://www.shadowstats.com/

Pretty much following the script; a continually slowing economy, and world debt is a only a measly $319 trillion. At $400 trillion the wheels should be flying off in every direction. GDP includes the service cost of that debt, and the FED is pretending like debt doesn't matter. They aren't even talking about it in the FOMC minutes.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 09 Jul 2019, 12:58:39

shortonoil wrote:If the market ever discovers that the decline in corpoarate profits is the result of petroleum's ongoing depletion event the world that we have grown to know will disappear!

And if the Easter Bunny were real, it would be less surprising than the nonsense you endlessly spew re economics and oil, so there's that. :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 09 Jul 2019, 13:09:44

US corporate confidence has entered free fall

The chart on the left is Morgan Stanley’s Business Conditions index. The index is designed to capture turning points in the economy. It fell to 13 in June from 45 in May. It was the largest one-month decline in the history of the index. It’s also the lowest reading on the index since December 2008.


http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/t ... n-trouble/
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby GHung » Tue 09 Jul 2019, 13:39:40

Armageddon wrote:US corporate confidence has entered free fall

The chart on the left is Morgan Stanley’s Business Conditions index. The index is designed to capture turning points in the economy. It fell to 13 in June from 45 in May. It was the largest one-month decline in the history of the index. It’s also the lowest reading on the index since December 2008.


http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/t ... n-trouble/


.... Meh. I read that about 3 weeks ago, on CNBC I think. The economy hasn't collapsed yet. Must be a bunch of BS. ...

Yeah, here is is: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/13/a-morga ... -ever.html
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby marmico » Tue 09 Jul 2019, 14:06:35

Monthly downtick but no collapse in the NFIB small business optimism index.

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 09 Jul 2019, 14:22:14

GHung wrote:


......but I'm sure one of you will insist that "correlation does not imply causation", or somesuch.


That is a given. But we're all waiting around for the stock market crash, not a recession that should have shown up years ago by now.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 09 Jul 2019, 15:45:21

Chinese Auto Stocks Plunge In Hong Kong After Geely Slashes 2019 Net Profit By 40%

China was the economic engine that pulled everybody out of the 2008 crises. Not this time. Their debt has quadrupled since 2008.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 09 Jul 2019, 18:21:52

Class 8 Truck Orders Crash 70% In June After A 71% Drop In May
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 10 Jul 2019, 05:21:23

That is a given. But we're all waiting around for the stock market crash, not a recession that should have shown up years ago by now.


With world debt growing by $126 billion a day and accelerating, you will see the market crash, and there will be no market at all before anyone ever sees another bull market. The debt is way too big at this point to power another period of expansion. Anyone who believes otherwise believes in the power of magic fairy dust, and unicorn farts.

China was the economic engine that pulled everybody out of the 2008 crises. Not this time. Their debt has quadrupled since 2008.


The question now is whether, or not the CCP will be willing to push the button before they lose power. Seems likely. It is hard to see them going quietly into the night.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby marmico » Wed 10 Jul 2019, 05:41:34

With world debt growing by $126 billion a day and accelerating


Pay close attention Bozo Bedford. You should have done it when you were in grade 3 learning addition, subtraction, multiplication and division.

$126 billion per day x 365 days per year equals $46 trillion. 2018 world nonfinancial debt is ~$180 trillion and is not growing $46 trillion per year and accelerating. According to the Bank of International Settlements, debt grew $2.5 trillion from 2017 to 2018 at USD market exchange rates.

https://stats.bis.org/statx/srs/table/f1.2
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 10 Jul 2019, 07:51:53

Pay close attention Bozo Bedford. You should have done it when you were in grade 3 learning addition, subtraction, multiplication and division.

$126 billion per day x 365 days per year equals $46 trillion. 2018 world nonfinancial debt is ~$180 trillion and is not growing $46 trillion per year and accelerating. According to the Bank of International Settlements, debt grew $2.5 trillion from 2017 to 2018 at USD market exchange rates.


Pay close attention you numbskull; try reading a graph you stupid bird brain.

Image

Now here is the interesting part, world debt formation is a function of the Total Energy to Produce petroleum, and its products. At an Etp of 99,400 BTU/gal, or an ERoEI of 6.9:1 the rate of world debt formation goes to infinity.

Now numbshull, try reading something from a source that does know what they are talking about.

https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insig ... leveraging

The values from the chart 240 above agree exactly with McKinsey's data. So stuff it you mutton headed, disingenuous little twerp. The end of the oil age, and all that implies is right on schedule.

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby marmico » Wed 10 Jul 2019, 08:57:08

The values from the chart 240 above agree exactly with McKinsey's data. So stuff it you mutton headed, disingenuous little twerp.


No they don't Bozo Bedford. To start out the chart is labelled "nonfinancial debt" and McKinsey's 5 year old chart includes financial debt.

McKinsey says that nonfinancial debt was $105 trillion in 2007, the BIS says $112 trillion; McKinsey says debt was $154 trillion in 2014, the BIS says $156 trillion. Fairly close data points. The BIS says $180 trillion in 2018. You ask McKinsey what they say?

Bozo Bedford's Chart says $38 trillion in 2006 and BIS says $98 trillion meaning that Bozo Bedford's chart and the $126 billion per day is complete and utter nonsense.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 10 Jul 2019, 09:50:51

marmico wrote:Bozo Bedford's Chart says $38 trillion in 2006 and BIS says $98 trillion meaning that Bozo Bedford's chart and the $126 billion per day is complete and utter nonsense.

But to bad sources which don't agree with multiple good sources, clear lack of basic understanding of financials and oil, he adds lots of childish name calling.

How can we not believe him with THAT amazing trump card? :roll:

But of course, he and Armageddon persist in the antics of posting any negative stat they can find, out of context, often from poor sources or uncited, backed up with pre-school insults to those who disagree.

Meanwhile the market is hitting new highs instead of crashing. This thread, which was proven wrong, should have been shut down years ago. The economic disaster they predicted re the 2018 correction has turned into new market highs instead.

Again, this thread should be closed down or renamed "ongoing recession watch" or some such.

Again, props to Cog for calling new 2019 market highs, and being proven more and more right.

In their minds, apparently the fast crash doomers are "always winning", as long as they can find SOME negative stat, no matter how poorly sourced or out of context, to bellyache about.

I'm pretty sure that's a clear sign of dementia.

I still think we could roll into a recession in the next couple years -- however, it won't be of the nature or for the reasons these folks keep randomly predicting.

Funny how with all the "record debt" screeching (or falsely reported), there is no acknowledgement of things like larger assets, more capital, more earnings, the larger economy, and on and on. Again, context matters, but not to the clowns who only report random "bad" stats to try and spread FUD.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 10 Jul 2019, 10:01:14

Goldman Sachs says Fed. rate cut probability this month now 100%
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