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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 07 Jul 2019, 09:21:10

"Conventional theory says that the CB should be able to print forever, the associated decline in Capital Returns says that they can't. When CR fall to zero investment goes to zero, and debt based currencies lose all meaning. Even the IMF doesn't dare threaten every government in the world with extinction."
Of course debt creationn/limitless printing is ultimately a zero sum game. To get something you must give up something. And as debt increases you give up commensurately ever more than you get in return. So it becomes a futile endeavor and a ticking time bomb as Short has convincingly explained
"We are mortal beings doomed to die
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby marmico » Sun 07 Jul 2019, 09:31:06

World debt is now growing by $51.5 trillion a year, or 61% of world GDP.


Complete and utter nonsense.

The IMF says : •Global debt has reached an all-time high of $184 trillion in nominal terms, the equivalent of 225 percent of GDP in 2017.

https://blogs.imf.org/2019/01/02/new-da ... obal-debt/

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 07 Jul 2019, 10:12:59

More than $10 Trillion in Negatively Yielding Debt.

Deutsche Bank restructuring.

Global Trade plummeting.

Fundamentals in free fall.

I wish there were signs of Systemic Risk somewhere.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby Yoshua » Sun 07 Jul 2019, 11:06:41

"Deutsche Bank - the biggest potential risk to the global financial system than any other bank, the IMF said in 2016 - is exiting equities trading and scaling back its investment banking business in a sweeping €7.4 bln restructuring and will create a bad bank to offload USD 74 Billion of bad assets."

Europe could probably be the epicenter of the next crisis. ECB can print euros, but it can't print dollars to bailout DB if its USD 47 Trillion derivatives book implodes.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 07 Jul 2019, 11:18:42

Complete and utter nonsense.


Another graph from the back of a Crackers Jack's box? But it is right, and the IMF is hallucinating. Sure. That same graph can also be found on the bathroom wall of Joe's Bar and Grill. It has to be right; Joe doesn't allow anything on his walls that isn't true.

I wish there were signs of Systemic Risk somewhere.


How about exponentially exploding world debt; or is that too politically incorrect for the Snowflakes?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby marmico » Sun 07 Jul 2019, 11:34:18

Another graph from the back of a Crackers Jack's box? But it is right, and the IMF is hallucinating. Sure. That same graph can also be found on the bathroom wall of Joe's Bar and Grill. It has to be right; Joe doesn't allow anything on his walls that isn't true.


What a Bedford Bozo - take your moniker pick; ETP Bozo when you post ETP Bozo stuff or Bedford Bozo when you post Bedford Bozo stuff.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 07 Jul 2019, 12:10:54

Yoshua wrote:"Deutsche Bank - the biggest potential risk to the global financial system than any other bank, the IMF said in 2016 - is exiting equities trading and scaling back its investment banking business in a sweeping €7.4 bln restructuring and will create a bad bank to offload USD 74 Billion of bad assets."

Europe could probably be the epicenter of the next crisis. ECB can print euros, but it can't print dollars to bailout DB if its USD 47 Trillion derivatives book implodes.



We could be facing another Lehman moment
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 07 Jul 2019, 12:38:46

More than $10 Trillion in Negatively Yielding Debt.


please provide the data that shows all of this negative yield. As I have pointed out (along with data) yields are positive across all sectors for the first half of 2019

Deutsche Bank restructuring.


and a lot of banks are doing quite well:

J.P. Morgan had record Q1 results in 2019 with earnings jumping to an all time high.

Bank of Montreal had net income up 20% year on year in second quarter, net revenue up 8%, increases in ROE and increased their dividend

Bank of America net income rose 6% in 1st quarter, diluted earnings per share rose 13%, pre-tax income rose 4%.

Wells Fargo net income up 15%, EPS up 25%, net income up $398 MM

BNP Paribas had net income increase of 22% in first quarter, net revenues increase by 10

Global Trade plummeting.


the charts you guys keep showing are based on changes to trade which show a steep drop. What is missed is that global trade is still increasing year on year, just not at the rate it was but it by no means is going negative. The effects of increased tariffs are in control.

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 07 Jul 2019, 13:10:54

AAR: June Rail Carloads down 5.3% YoY, Intermodal Down 7.2% YoY
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 07 Jul 2019, 13:15:38

Q2 GDP Forecasts: Around 1.5%

All time record personal debt
All time record govt debt
All time record credit card debt
All time record corporate debt
All time record annual budget deficit at nearly 1.5 trillion


And GDP is only 1.5% in a Summer quarter?


That’s brutal
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 08 Jul 2019, 13:29:54

And GDP is only 1.5% in a Summer quarter?


were not you the one predicting first a Q1 negative GDP and then when that didn't work out a Q2 negative GDP? What is the average first half 2019 GDP pray tell?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 08 Jul 2019, 14:37:20

And GDP is only 1.5% in a Summer quarter?


That’s brutal


When it is taken into consideration that the GDP also includes the cost of servicing the world's present debt of $319 trillion, which is growing by $126 billion a day; that 1.5% doesn't look very attractive. Does anything have a growth rate of 6 significant figures? Didn't think so.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 08 Jul 2019, 14:44:31

It is not very often that one sees everything across all indexes, including gold, showing up red.

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/f ... electronic

When in fear, when in doubt, run in circles scream and shout! Mr. Market is having an episode!
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 08 Jul 2019, 15:32:47

Adding insult to injury was the OECD leading indicator, which dipped in May to 99 from 99.1 in April and 99.3 at the turn of the year. The overall level is now the lowest since the global economy was trying its utmost to climb out of the Great Recession in late summer 2009.


There’s that 2009 number again. Wonder why?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 08 Jul 2019, 15:55:54

Consumer Credit Hits All Time High As Credit Card Debt Surges


The economy is so good that people feel the need to run up their credit cards.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 08 Jul 2019, 17:23:07

Adding insult to injury was the OECD leading indicator, which dipped in May to 99 from 99.1 in April and 99.3 at the turn of the year. The overall level is now the lowest since the global economy was trying its utmost to climb out of the Great Recession in late summer 2009.


here is the description of what is actually happening with that leading indicator:

Among large OECD economies, only Japan and Canada have seen a change in assessment this month (to stabilising growth momentum from easing growth momentum last month) while in the United Kingdom last month’s tentative signals of stable growth momentum have now been confirmed, although large margins of error exist due to continuing Brexit uncertainty.
Among other major OECD economies, the CLIs continue to anticipate stable growth momentum in France and easing growth momentum in the United States and the euro area as a whole, particularly in Germany and Italy.
Among major emerging economies, the CLIs continue to anticipatestable growth momentum in China (in the industrial sector), India and Russia, and now also in Brazil.


So US and parts of Europe are still seeing easing growth but everywhere else it is stable growth. Doesn't sound as bad as you would want everyone to think does it? :roll:
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby marmico » Mon 08 Jul 2019, 18:38:44

The economy is so good that people feel the need to run up their credit cards.


Credit card debt to disposable personal income has been flat as a pancake for 7 years and is lower than the 2007 prior business cycle peak.

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 08 Jul 2019, 18:58:39

U.S. Consumer Borrowing Climbs on Bigger Credit Card Balances - Bloomberg “... suggesting Americans’ favorable economic outlook is underpinning continued spending.” How exactly is surging credit card buying w/declining weekly income growth a good thing?


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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 08 Jul 2019, 19:24:54

Armageddon wrote:I wish there were signs of Systemic Risk somewhere.


Because you can't find anything related to the faux stock market crash that is the topic of the thread?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 08 Jul 2019, 22:25:36

AdamB wrote:
Armageddon wrote:I wish there were signs of Systemic Risk somewhere.


Because you can't find anything related to the faux stock market crash that is the topic of the thread?

Well, he finds plenty of nonsense on doomer blogs, and makes stuff up by taking things way out of context. So for the constant doom mantra crowd with a track record of roughly 0% over time, that's "something", I suppose.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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