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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 05 Jul 2019, 12:44:18

the number of multiple-jobholders soared from 7.855 million to 8.156 million, a monthly surge of 301,000
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 05 Jul 2019, 12:48:58

Armageddon wrote:June saw a surge in full-time jobs, as total US employment hit a record high of 157 million workers, however virtually all of this increase was due to workers being forced to get a second (or third) job, double counting those who can no longer make ends meet on one job alone.

So you're going to jump on the "people can't afford to buy gasoline" meme? Kind of hard to do that with a large and growing average US household income. Or the average car costing over $36,000. If people can't make ends meet, why are fancy large and SUV trucks so popular in the US?

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/12/median- ... 61372.html

https://mediaroom.kbb.com/2019-03-01-Av ... -Blue-Book


But of course, it's always a "conspiracy" and "bad numbers", for any good statistics, to the doomers. :roll:

Is your game going to be to just randomly put a negative spin on EVERY piece of economic news, to fit your theories of doom, regardless of facts, data, or logic? If it is, you're entering "ignore button" territory, re relevance. Of course, there's always the entertainment value of committed doomers who can't ever admit it when they're wrong. :P
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 05 Jul 2019, 12:50:15

Half the payroll gain came from the ‘Birth-Death’ BLS guesstimate; and prime-adult male employment actually sagged 97k in June, collapsing 338k over the past three months, which hasn’t happened since September 2009. Lift open the shiny hood and check out the sputtering engine.


Danielle DeMartino who worked for the FED and is an insider and has many connections, told me that GDP, inflation, jobs reports etc are all manipulated.

You people need to quit being so gullible
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 05 Jul 2019, 12:54:30

Armageddon wrote:June saw a surge in full-time jobs, as total US employment hit a record high of 157 million workers, however virtually all of this increase was due to workers being forced to get a second (or third) job, double counting those who can no longer make ends meet on one job alone.

Yes, of course. Let's pretend that virtually ALL the new jobs in things like health services, business and professional services, etc. are held by people who need three jobs because they "can't make ends meet".

Yeah, that makes sense. :roll:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/05/heres-w ... chart.html

Of course, in the real world, where the median US household wage keeps increasing and is well above $60,000, pretending like the lowest income quintile is the whole country would only be credible to a perma-doomer.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 05 Jul 2019, 13:04:27

Armageddon wrote:the number of multiple-jobholders soared from 7.855 million to 8.156 million, a monthly surge of 301,000

Why not cite such statistics? Or are your sources so poor you're ashamed to do it, as often seems to be the case when I look at such citations, when you bother to give them, from collapse blog X, etc?

...

So knowing how you work, I did a search on "multiple job holders soared in june", and we arrive at good old zerohedge. Which doesn't explain what it means by "job". Which is talking about part time jobs in one of its two charts.

So by all means, play the zerohedge loose figures confabulation game, don't cite your source, and pretend to be credible. :roll:

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07- ... ecord-high
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 05 Jul 2019, 14:05:49

Danielle DeMartino who worked for the FED and is an insider and has many connections, told me that GDP, inflation, jobs reports etc are all manipulated.


If they weren't the equity market would grind to a halt, but that is going to happen anyway. Over the next 12 months world debt will expand by $46 trillion. Global ROC (return on capital) will fall from its present 2.47% to 2.05%. As the debt goes up, return on capital goes down. Bonds are going to explode upward as interest rates follow returns downward. Equities are going down when equity holders discover that they aren't going to make a plug nickel on their stocks. The fairy tale of the momentum trade is about to die a costly, and overdue death. The big banks are already buying bonds with both hands and feet, and the equity market is going to be left out in the rain to wash off a few $trillion of its rotting, and growing progressively stinky hubris. The market is about to relearn the hard way that debt does matter, and oil is not just a black stinky substance that grows on an oil tree.

Fire up the popcorn maker, kick back your feet and watch the greatest show on earth fall flat on its face!

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 05 Jul 2019, 16:07:35

Strong jobs market? The US labor force has actually contracted by more than 600,000 workers this year bloomberg.com/opinion/articl… via @bopinion Household Survey jobs down this year by almost 200,000, while twice as many who were earlier unemployed have given up looking for jobs. WOW
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 05 Jul 2019, 16:28:18

#Germany factory orders down 8.6% on a year ago in May, steepest decline since October 2009. #PMI has turned a corner though, suggesting downturn could start to ease in coming months, but much depends on trade war develpments, which remains the biggest concern among manufacturers


There’s that pesky 2009 number again
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 05 Jul 2019, 19:50:04

Armageddon wrote:We keep seeing 2008 and 2009 mentioned a lot. Gee, I wonder why?


You whining about it doesn't count.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 05 Jul 2019, 19:52:22

Armageddon wrote:the number of multiple-jobholders soared from 7.855 million to 8.156 million, a monthly surge of 301,000


And exactly 1 year ago, the number was 8.064 million. And it too surged from the month before.

So things are crashing because seasonal increases in multi-job holders is all you need to get your panties in a twist?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 05 Jul 2019, 20:01:02

Armageddon wrote:Half the payroll gain came from the ‘Birth-Death’ BLS guesstimate; and prime-adult male employment actually sagged 97k in June, collapsing 338k over the past three months, which hasn’t happened since September 2009. Lift open the shiny hood and check out the sputtering engine.


What does that have to do with the stock market crash that isn't?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 05 Jul 2019, 20:08:53

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Armageddon wrote:the number of multiple-jobholders soared from 7.855 million to 8.156 million, a monthly surge of 301,000

Why not cite such statistics? Or are your sources so poor you're ashamed to do it, as often seems to be the case when I look at such citations, when you bother to give them, from collapse blog X, etc?


Because if Army was honest and not some gibberish spouting, collapse pimping doomer dangling any bait he could find fishing for the gullible, he would have to tell you that not only wasn't that job very much at all, but it happens regularly, you can see it in the early summer spike in people holding multiple jobs going back decades.

But when facts get in the way of fishing for the gullible, well, since when is telling the truth the requirement of a zealot?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby marmico » Sat 06 Jul 2019, 03:26:01

the number of multiple-jobholders soared from 7.855 million to 8.156 million, a monthly surge of 301,000


Yes. But in context it is 5.2% of payrolls which is pretty much a nothingburger in the current economic expansion.

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 06 Jul 2019, 10:00:52

"The Fed's dual mandate is to maximize employment. We're not seeing that happen because were seeing a decline in the labor-participation rate." The U.S.'s current labor-participation rate is 62.9%, down from 66% in 2007
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 06 Jul 2019, 10:22:50

onlooker

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently released its latest World Economic Outlook, along with some stark warnings. Exploding public debt resulting from mega bailouts and printing trillions to stimulate economies have limited the policy tools central banks have to deal with future crises.


In other words, central banks are already handcuffed with what they can do to combat future economic problems. They will be unable to handle the global debt bomb when it finally arrives.


The IMF, along with Mckensie, are two of the very few who are even mentioning the "debt bomb" with which the world will soon be dealing. You will also notice that neither of them have provided a long term graph of the situation. Nor do they provide data on the decline taking place to the world's Capital Returns. That is probably because, if they did, the world's equity markets would collapse, and neither want to be blamed for starting an avalanche. Part of the problem may also be because neither of them have an explanation for what is taking place. It falls completely outside the boundaries of conventional economic theory. Conventional theory says that the CB should be able to print forever, the associated decline in Capital Returns says that they can't. When CR fall to zero investment goes to zero, and debt based currencies lose all meaning. Even the IMF doesn't dare threaten every government in the world with extinction.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 06 Jul 2019, 13:23:54

Armageddon wrote:"The Fed's dual mandate is to maximize employment. We're not seeing that happen because were seeing a decline in the labor-participation rate." The U.S.'s current labor-participation rate is 62.9%, down from 66% in 2007

You only mention one half of the dual mandate. Dual meaning two, of course.

The Fed's dual mandate is to try and balance BOTH high employment and low inflation.

The labor participation rate, which has been stated MANY times here, but the doomers continue to ignore, has NOTHING to do with unemployment. It's about statistics like the age of the population, the wealth of the population, etc.

If anything, a lower labor participation rate is encouraging in several ways:

1). More jobs per capita for people who need and want jobs.
2). The economy is strong enough to function reasonably well with a lower labor participation rate. (Technology and automation helping there greatly).
3). The economy is strong enough to function reasonably well despite an aging population which sill tend not to work, by choice, or due to health, once it reaches "retirement age" -- where for many folks, is becoming WELL under age 65 -- by choice.
4). In a supposedly "free" country, freedom of choice, supported by economic reality is a good thing.

I'm a prime example. I left the labor force in July of 2007, coincidentally the year you cited. Voluntary early retirement at the ripe old age of 48.

NOT due to unemployment or any problem with the economy. In fact, due to the fact that the economy supported someone who valued personal freedom over lavish spending, and wanted to retire well before old age and bad health made retirement a not-so-great thing.

So I have contributed to the lower labor participation rate, but the economy has taken NO damage (my lifestyle has stayed much the same re spending), and my job was available for some other IBMer.

....

If you constantly distort things, re your statements and claims, it doesn't prove anything to someone who is willing to critically examine such claims. You're not helping yourself, re trying to claim the economy is "weak" or "bad" or that the market is "crashing", just because less people have CHOSEN to work, due largely to demographics.

....

For low unemployment, try the unemployment rate. Of course, for a doomer, you don't want to talk directly about THAT, since it hurts your case re a "bad" economy.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 06 Jul 2019, 14:46:13

If you constantly distort things


Not intentionally; I didn't mean to imply that this is a linear progression; it isn't. World debt is not only growing very fast at present, but according to the IMF it grew from $38 trillion in 2006 to $233 trillion in 2017. It is growing exponentially. At its present growth rate it will be $427 trillion by 2022. Which will be a debt load of over 5 times present world GDP. It is not likely that there is enough liquid capital in the world to finance that magnitude of debt creation. The world M2 money supply is somewhere around $75 trillion.

What kind of figures do you get from the IMF data?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 06 Jul 2019, 15:30:37

The Fed's dual mandate is to try and balance BOTH high employment and low inflation.


Did you get that out of a Chinese fortune cooky? You need to brush up on your Mandrain.
Congress mentioned 3 things, you have got 2. If Illiteracy is your middle name, it is a justifiable mistake.

What are the Federal Reserve's objectives in conducting monetary policy? The Congress established the statutory objectives for monetary policy--maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates--in the Federal Reserve Act. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is firmly committed to fulfilling this statutory mandate.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/money_12848.htm
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 06 Jul 2019, 16:00:57

Yeah sure debt does not matter and the Easter bunny just visited me.
https://www.axios.com/united-states-eco ... 99374.html
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 07 Jul 2019, 08:26:51

Yeah sure debt does not matter and the Easter bunny just visited me.
https://www.axios.com/united-states-eco ... 99374.html


Here is a little wake up call from the IMF. World debt is now growing by $51.5 trillion a year, or 61% of world GDP. Of course, the world's credit markets don't have an additional $51.5 trillion to loan every year, so someone is going to go without. Lehman was the world's largest bankruptcy in history at $691 billion, but it is soon going to have some serious competition.

To move things along a little faster, Return on Capital (ROC) is going down as the debt is going up. Declining returns for the existing debt holders means that they will have even less in available funds for repaying what they already owe! The MSM is going to have to work very hard to try to put a spin on this one, then again after what's coming, they may not even be around any longer to talk about it.

This all has to do with our number one, and most essential commodity; oil. But that is a chart for a different day?

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