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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 02 Jul 2019, 13:13:09

Every business cycle has ended with a stock market top. This business cycle has been fueled by zero rates and QE. What comes next is anybody's guess.


It also came with the largest increase in world debt in history, $224 trillion, and is finishing up with the lowest return on capital in history (at least since the GD) of 2.47%. No doubt about it, it has been a smashing success if you happen to be one of the minority that owns stocks. Gene and Gail at the local bistro; not so good. The average return on capital is now so low that the return doesn't even cover the maintenance cost. If one thinks that the CB can fix that problem they are trying to run at Nascar with a three wheeled ox cart.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 02 Jul 2019, 14:18:19

So what is all this malarkey about the market doing so well?? Returns are terrible. Really, really, really bad. Much worse than they were the previous year.

S&P 500 Annual Total Return: -4.38% for 2018


The S&P 500 Annual Total Return measures the total return that the S&P 500 index returned for each calendar year. The S&P 500 is significant because it is used as the index for the whole market. On YCharts, you can also view the S&P 500 Index. Historically, the S&P 500 went as high as 37.56% in 1995, and as low as -37% in 2008.
S&P 500 Annual Total Return is at -4.38%, compared to 21.83% last year. This is lower than the long term average of 8.18%.

https://ycharts.com/indicators/sandp_50 ... urn_annual

We are approaching the end of the oil age, and debt is going up, and returns on capital are going down. The world average for capital returns is now 2.47%. By 2030 it will be 0.77%. World debt is now $298 trillion, by 2030 it will 1,080 trillion; if we make it that far (which seems doubtful). It is all spelled out in the energy equations, which implies that one can read.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 02 Jul 2019, 14:52:47

So what is all this malarkey about the market doing so well?? Returns are terrible. Really, really, really bad. Much worse than they were the previous year.

S&P 500 Annual Total Return: -4.38% for 2018


Most of us are actually living in the middle of 2019 in case you haven't looked at a calendar lately. :roll:

The S&P 500 has been booming this past 6 months

The S&P 500 advanced 0.6% to 2,941.74, led by the financials sector. For the month, the S&P 500 jumped 6.9%, its best June performance since 1955. The broad index is also up more than 17% this year, marking its biggest first-half gain since 1997.


The US Stock market as a whole is up 18.62% in the first half of 2019 and the Global Stock Market if up 13.76% over this same period.

And before you go on and on about the last part of the year always being worse (which it isn’t historically) let's look at the S&P 500 10 yr annualized total returns up to February of 2019. According to Goldman Sachs the recent 10 yr trailing return for the S&P 500 ranks in the 94th percentile since 1880 with the market having regained 300 percent from its financial crisis low in March 2009.


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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 02 Jul 2019, 15:37:59

Wow! UK Construction #PMI just cratered to 43.1, 49.2 expected!


#globalcollapse
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 02 Jul 2019, 15:47:09

Armageddon wrote:I’ll say it slow so you can understand. The stock market has nothing, I’ll repeat that, nothing, to do with the economy.


The stock market is the topic of this thread. And when it is just another mechanism to increase (or decrease) wealth, then of course it has to do with the economy. In either case, the thread topic has nothing to do random stock metrics or increases or decreases in sales of a single item that you happen to want to include ONLY because it went down.

Apparently, as you have the stock market, missed all the UP stuff going on in your rush for uni-directional doom news.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 02 Jul 2019, 15:49:51

Armageddon wrote:Wow! UK Construction #PMI just cratered to 43.1, 49.2 expected!


#globalcollapse


Which has nothing to do with a stock market crash apparently.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby marmico » Tue 02 Jul 2019, 16:44:07

Boss, da US consumer is still alive!

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby Cog » Tue 02 Jul 2019, 19:14:20

Part eight of failed predictions by the Doomer gang. So sad.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby GHung » Tue 02 Jul 2019, 19:48:19

Cog wrote:Part eight of failed predictions by the Doomer gang. So sad.


What is sad is you ignoring/violating the US Flag Code.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 02 Jul 2019, 22:22:56

What is sad is you ignoring/violating the US Flag Code.


I think you are going to have to point to the appropriate article in the Flag Code. As far as I am aware it only covers use of the actual flag, not pictures of it.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby GHung » Tue 02 Jul 2019, 23:14:46

rockdoc123 wrote:
What is sad is you ignoring/violating the US Flag Code.


I think you are going to have to point to the appropriate article in the Flag Code. As far as I am aware it only covers use of the actual flag, not pictures of it.


The flag should never be used for advertising purposes in any manner whatsoever. It should not be embroidered on such articles as cushions or handkerchiefs and the like, printed or otherwise impressed on paper napkins or boxes or anything that is designed for temporary use and discard. ....

No part of the flag should ever be used as a costume or athletic uniform. However, a flag patch may be affixed to the uniform of military personnel, firemen, policemen, and members of patriotic organizations.[3] The flag represents a living country and is itself considered a living thing. Therefore, the lapel flag pin being a replica, should be worn on the left lapel near the heart.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_St ... f_the_code


".... in any manner whatsoever...."
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby Cog » Wed 03 Jul 2019, 03:12:31

The flag should never be used for advertising purposes in any manner whatsoever.

What exactly am I advertising with a flag avatar there Ghung? I did not realize that you were such a super patriot. From my observations it is the left who typically burn actual flags to protest one thing or the other. Prove me wrong.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 03 Jul 2019, 07:02:19

".... in any manner whatsoever...."


Benedict Arnold didn't get it either! Selling out someone's ideals has a long established tradition. Anything to make a buck.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby GHung » Wed 03 Jul 2019, 08:14:08

Cog wrote:The flag should never be used for advertising purposes in any manner whatsoever.

What exactly am I advertising with a flag avatar there Ghung? I did not realize that you were such a super patriot. From my observations it is the left who typically burn actual flags to protest one thing or the other. Prove me wrong.


The intent of the code is clear. And I'm not "the left", though I understand your simplistic binary thought processes. You've always assigned silly labels to people who disagree with you. Funny thing is, you've convinced yourself that you are smart. Must be a coping mech.

I, for one, never had to pretend I'm a Patriot. It just came naturally I guess, and never included parading around pasting the flag everywhere, trying to impress people.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby Cog » Wed 03 Jul 2019, 10:01:07

I could go back to the Confederate battle flag but people might think I was a Democrat since it represents their values. Yeah I know you aren't a patriot. That wasn't difficult to figure out. But I hear there will be a heavy Antifa presence in DC on July 4th. I'm sure you can hook up with them and burn a flag if that is your pleasure.

But I digress. How is that stock market crash going for you Ghung? Still buying gold or shorting the market?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Wed 03 Jul 2019, 10:14:19

Cog, those were in fact unkind things to say to Plant. BTW, I consider him a Patriot.

I am a Conservative, and Plant is a Moderate by my standards. However he has risen above partisanship, and you have not. Civil discourse requires that one respect the other party and their beliefs. Plant is way better than the self-described "Progressives" around here, who are in fact blinded by ideology.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 03 Jul 2019, 10:16:21

shortonoil wrote:
".... in any manner whatsoever...."


Benedict Arnold didn't get it either!


Is he relevant to you because he couldn't get ridiculously stupid papers past peer review either?

Or because before he was a traitor he also was a welsher?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby Cog » Wed 03 Jul 2019, 10:58:39

KaiserJeep wrote:Cog, those were in fact unkind things to say to Plant. BTW, I consider him a Patriot.

I am a Conservative, and Plant is a Moderate by my standards. However he has risen above partisanship, and you have not. Civil discourse requires that one respect the other party and their beliefs. Plant is way better than the self-described "Progressives" around here, who are in fact blinded by ideology.


You seem a bit confused as to who I'm having a conversation with. Here is a clue. Its not Plant.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 03 Jul 2019, 11:09:07

Gold Is Spiking, Bond Yields Plunging As China Composite PMI Tumbles

The issue is entirely liquidity risk, meaning dollar shortage. The bond market sees this in global monetary conditions and hedges against it in a manner consistent with forecasting imminent FOMC rate cuts. This global PMI data therefore confirms the economic consequences of something that must already be substantial.


https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07- ... mi-tumbles

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The dollar shortage is resulting from a decline in Capital Returns. World average Capital Returns are now 2.47% per year. Lower Capital Returns bring fewer dollars into existence. Capital Returns are declining as the result of increasing debt, and debt formation is the process of destroying capital. Increasing debt is resulting from an economy that is now contracting from energy starvation. The S&P floating around its magic number of 3,000 will end in a catastrophic collapse. The central banks can not print more liquidity without increasing the debt. The market is soon to discover that the central banks are pushing on a string.

The global economy continues to weaken, and attempts to abandoned the dollar will prove futile. No debt based currency can survive for long in a declining economy. The last yearly GDP expansion of $4.87 trillion was in conjunction with debt expansion of $33.4 trillion. It now requires $6.86 in new debt to increase the world's GDP by $1. This is a one way street that can only lead to the destruction of the present economic system.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 8

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 03 Jul 2019, 12:13:36

Here is data on the Return on Equity updated as of January 2019 for 103 US corporate sectors.

Image


Slightly greater than 51% of all sectors have Return on Equity greater than 15%, only 6% have negative ROE and 27% have ROE less than 10%


Doesn't seem like bad news to me....although I sure someone here sees a bear behind every tree. :cry:
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