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Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 10 May 2019, 10:33:09

coffeeguyzz wrote:Whatever the future brings, I believe the concerns surrounding oil scarcity will prove to be grossly unfounded.


Zealots are not to be deterred by facts coffee. They sing in the choir, read from the book given them and hum the mantra to keep history, facts and science at bay. What good is a true believer that learns to think for themselves?
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby Yoshua » Tue 14 May 2019, 10:49:58

Non Opec's Free Cash Flow vs. CapEx

Non OPEC is EROEI negative?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D6h8d5oX4AE ... name=small
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 14 May 2019, 11:16:21

Yoshua wrote:Non Opec's Free Cash Flow vs. CapEx

Non OPEC is EROEI negative?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D6h8d5oX4AE ... name=small


The chart said nothing about EROEI. And EROEI cannot be a negative. The denominator is by definition an energy input, and the metric only begins to function after a given energy input is applied. Therefore it cannot be <0. As the first law of thermodynamics states that energy can neither be created nor destroyed, the output from an energy investment cannot be negative. It can be 0, but not negative. Therefore EROEI can ne 0, but it cannot be negative.

Is it like a requirement of admission into the church of peak to demonstrate technical ignorance at the most basic levels at every opportunity?
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby Yoshua » Tue 14 May 2019, 12:47:29

Petroleum production can have a negative EROEI if the energy is provided from other energy sources.

If the energy mix has a positive EROEI, then it can provide the energy needed to produce petroleum...even if the energy input is higher that the energy received.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 14 May 2019, 15:49:50

Yoshua wrote:Petroleum production can have a negative EROEI if the energy is provided from other energy sources.


Learn what ENERGY is before you pretend that OTHER energy isn't....you know...ENERGY.

Stop proving the point I made previously.

Yoshua wrote:If the energy mix has a positive EROEI, then it can provide the energy needed to produce petroleum...even if the energy input is higher that the energy received.


Pay attention to the equation and stop pretending that your words are a substitute.

Energy Returned / Energy Invested

Do you understand what energy is? Do you understand that the equation does not say other energy or petroleum energy? Do you understand what energy is used for? Do you understand that energy comes in different forms? Do you understand that different forms of energy have different economic cost and value? Do you understand that energy is used by humans to do work, and there is no restriction in that equation telling me where I get that energy from or what it costs?

Do you understand anything about the basics of thermodynamics? Do you know how to divide 2 numbers?
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 14 May 2019, 16:43:10

Tanada wrote:By those standards anyone who speaks with an accent


Nukyular and bigly aren't on the same level as "accents".

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby eclipse » Wed 15 May 2019, 01:54:01

Well, that was fun. But yeah, nuclear has a high enough EROEI that it alone could run society and have plenty of energy left over to 'loan' to whatever scale e-diesel, blue-crude or synfuel industry you want. Diesel for trucking? Jet fuel for airlines? Yup. Got you covered. Just build enough nukes. tps://eclipsenow.wordpress.com/recharge/
Dr James Hansen recommends breeder reactors that convert nuclear 'waste' into 1000 years of clean energy for America, and can charge all our light vehicles and generate "Blue Crude" for heavy vehicles.
https://eclipsenow.wordpress.com/recharge/
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 15 May 2019, 08:56:19

eclipse wrote:Well, that was fun. But yeah, nuclear has a high enough EROEI that it alone could run society and have plenty of energy left over to 'loan' to whatever scale e-diesel, blue-crude or synfuel industry you want. Diesel for trucking? Jet fuel for airlines? Yup. Got you covered. Just build enough nukes. tps://eclipsenow.wordpress.com/recharge/


You've just latched onto nuclear as a panacea. You fail to see all the ways nuclear doesn't work out in the real world (sometimes catastrophically). Very...very...naive. There is no "just" in any mitigation strategy, not the least of which being generating the political will.

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 15 May 2019, 09:25:30

Got you covered. Just build enough nukes.


The last set of calculations we ran on that showed that it would require 36,667 1000 mega watt reactors to replace petroleum's energy contribution to the economy. Do you think the Chinese can have them built by next Friday?

It might not work out too well? Iran has all the yellow cake, and they are in a bad mood this month.

We will now return to our regularly scheduled program of serial spammers.

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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 15 May 2019, 10:21:33

shortonoil wrote:
Got you covered. Just build enough nukes.


The last set of calculations we ran on that showed that it would require 36,667 1000 mega watt reactors to replace petroleum's energy contribution to the economy. Do you think the Chinese can have them built by next Friday?

It might not work out too well? Iran has all the yellow cake, and they are in a bad mood this month.

We will now return to our regularly scheduled program of serial spammers.

http://www.thehillsgroup.org/


Ironic you mention spam and then immediately below it post a link to your false reality website. Judging by your lack of social graces, mathematics ability or technical competence lets just say your estimates of how much of what anyone needs are not worth the electrons wasted to transmit them.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby Baduila » Wed 15 May 2019, 13:49:16

Tanada,

you are the SITE ADMIN.
A good SITE ADMIN has two tasks:
-Neutrality
-Suppression of insults and rowdiness

You don't do both of them. Instead you comment thermodynamic models without understanding a tiny bit of them. You don't have the faintest idea about the science, which is valid for energy transformations from one form to the other.

If you don't know: Scientific models are invalidated by reality, not by likings.
And the reality is still following the oil price extrapolation of the ETP model.
oil_price_190515.png
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 15 May 2019, 14:10:49

Baduila wrote:Tanada,

you are the SITE ADMIN.
A good SITE ADMIN has two tasks:
-Neutrality
-Suppression of insults and rowdiness

You don't do both of them. Instead you comment thermodynamic models without understanding a tiny bit of them. You don't have the faintest idea about the science, which is valid for energy transformations from one form to the other.

If you don't know: Scientific models are invalidated by reality, not by likings.
And the reality is still following the oil price extrapolation of the ETP model.


Here is something for you to mull over. I am both a volunteer and I serve at the pleasure of the site owner. How I do my volunteer work is set by him, not you, and if you have a problem with it I suggest you contact him directly instead of cluttering up the board with inane attempts to insult myself.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Wed 15 May 2019, 14:32:14

If there are any remaining visitors to this site who are still interested in 'real world' hydrocarbon events such as actual, current production numbers, today's releases from North Dakota and Pennsylvania for March will prove informative.

North Dakota - aka the Bakken - had March output of 1,390, 000+ barrels per day ... just a touch under January's record 1.404 million.
Gas was a record 2.8 Bcfd.
Going forward, record output is expected with a possible restrictive effect of poor springtime road conditions.

Pennsylvania produced an astounding 554 billion cubic feet per day ... annualized rate of over 7 trillion cubic feet per year.
This is close to the record.
Better weather and added pipelines ensure new record production going forward.

Both Ohio and, now, West Virginia will post first quarter 2019 results shortly.
The expansive development of both the Utica and also Marcellus in Ohio is picking up momentum due to new players and infrastructure buildout.

The vast, VAST amounts of hydrocarbons being unleashed from the US is now - and for the foreseeable future - upending global dynamics in myriad and profound ways.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby eclipse » Thu 16 May 2019, 01:17:17

"The vast, VAST amounts of hydrocarbons being unleashed from the US is now - and for the foreseeable future - upending global dynamics in myriad and profound ways."
And from a climate POV America shouldn't be doing any of it.
Dr James Hansen recommends breeder reactors that convert nuclear 'waste' into 1000 years of clean energy for America, and can charge all our light vehicles and generate "Blue Crude" for heavy vehicles.
https://eclipsenow.wordpress.com/recharge/
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 16 May 2019, 19:31:53

Baduila wrote:Tanada,

you are the SITE ADMIN.
A good SITE ADMIN has two tasks:
-Neutrality
-Suppression of insults and rowdiness

You don't do both of them. Instead you comment thermodynamic models without understanding a tiny bit of them.


Tanada might not, but I certainly do. Have been asked to comment on them professionally, when one makes it to the level of needing an expert to explain to the less initiated how the net energy game is played. Tanada treats the ridiculous nonsense put out by Short with far more grace then it deserves.

Baduila wrote: You don't have the faintest idea about the science, which is valid for energy transformations from one form to the other.


But some of us do. Some of us even have pointed out why years before Shorty called oil prices wrong, and mangled his "science" (it has been published since last I stopped in, or after it was laughed out of peer review did it continue to just be some nonsense Short still wants to sell to the gullible).


Baduila wrote:If you don't know: Scientific models are invalidated by reality, not by likings.


Those of us with extensive publications to their credit know this. You and Short do not, and last I heard Short couldn't even get his through review. Sounds like science doing its job...politely declining things that really aren't.

Baduila wrote:And the reality is still following the oil price extrapolation of the ETP model.
oil_price_190515.png


And that is why Short didn't pay off his bet on the accuracy of his spurious relationship? Do tell!
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 16 May 2019, 19:38:38

eclipse wrote:"The vast, VAST amounts of hydrocarbons being unleashed from the US is now - and for the foreseeable future - upending global dynamics in myriad and profound ways."
And from a climate POV America shouldn't be doing any of it.


Fortunate I guess then that the place is peakoil.com and not NTHE.com? I'll admit that the fast crash peakoil doomers were looking for 2 decades ago didn't trigger their favorite doom fantasy league scenario, and then they latched onto climate change. I'll bet they'll admit that it just doesn't have the kick of fuel running out next week and handing them the outcome they have been wishing for all these years though.

I'm with you though philosophically. As opposed to the misanthropes that just want doom. I EV for a reason. Downsized the entire household some 9 years ago now. Turns out, you can also save a bunch of money doing these kinds of things even if doom itself never even shows up!
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby eclipse » Thu 16 May 2019, 22:35:34

AdamB wrote:I'll bet they'll admit that it just doesn't have the kick of fuel running out next week and handing them the outcome they have been wishing for all these years though.

Yeah, I know of young 19 year old that lost hope and committed suicide during that hype. It destroyed his parents. Climate change is a real and present danger, but I see it as a series of exponential challenges just as a whole new bunch of climate and weather modification exponential technologies arrive as well! The ultimate race! So can we dim just a tiny fraction of the incoming sunlight (maybe half the warming) and not have nasty side effects (like cancelling the Monsoon?) We'll see.

I'm with you though philosophically. As opposed to the misanthropes that just want doom. I EV for a reason. Downsized the entire household some 9 years ago now. Turns out, you can also save a bunch of money doing these kinds of things even if doom itself never even shows up!

Good job.
Dr James Hansen recommends breeder reactors that convert nuclear 'waste' into 1000 years of clean energy for America, and can charge all our light vehicles and generate "Blue Crude" for heavy vehicles.
https://eclipsenow.wordpress.com/recharge/
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby Yoshua » Fri 17 May 2019, 14:41:18

There Is only now...in constant movement.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby Baduila » Mon 20 May 2019, 13:28:26

@ Adam

If i understand you correct, you know thermodynamics and have checked shortys derivation of the ETP Formula. So you own the book of Moran/Shapiro "Fundamentals of Engineering Thermodynamics", and you have seen the steady state entropy rate balance in chapter 6. The next equation follows directly out of the steady state entropy rate balance.


non_sequitur2.png


What do you think of this equation (from page 8 of shortys paper):
Is a minus sign missing ? What is the effect if the sign is missing ?
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 20 May 2019, 16:26:59

Baduila wrote:@ Adam

If i understand you correct, you know thermodynamics and have checked shortys derivation of the ETP Formula.


Oh goodness sock puppet, the speed at which you jump to the very specific and meaningless is very...shorty like?

Try reading what I wrote. I didn't say anything about Shorty's equations, although I have in the past. Mostly related to how he shouldn't tell reservoir engineers like me what we do for a living if he doesn't know. I will add a caveat however Short, and that is if the peer review finally happened after your last paper rejection, then I will certainly examine that in its entirety. But when it can't even get into review, in the science world not even making it that far is the equivalent of not even making it through the first 10 seconds of the Gong Show.

Did you ever pay up on those bets Short?

Baduila wrote:So you own the book of Moran/Shapiro "Fundamentals of Engineering Thermodynamics", and you have seen the steady state entropy rate balance in chapter 6. The next equation follows directly out of the steady state entropy rate balance.


I've got an even better question...can you please reference the petroleum engineer that Bedford Hill consulted who told him that equation is used by us during our normal reservoir management calculations? I would like to give them a call and find out what school they went to and under what circumstances that equation was ever used.

Baduila wrote:What do you think of this equation (from page 8 of shortys paper):
Is a minus sign missing ? What is the effect if the sign is missing ?


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