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Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby Yoshua » Fri 19 Apr 2019, 01:12:20

WTI USD 64

As oil prices continue to rise...the global synchronized economic slowdown becomes more visible.

If there only was a model that could explain this phenomenon.

With most producers already post peak oil, combined with sanctions on Venezuela and Iran, and OPEC cuts, oil prices will probably stay high untill something breaks.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby marmico » Fri 19 Apr 2019, 04:49:56

Yawn.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 19 Apr 2019, 07:02:31

With most producers already post peak oil, combined with sanctions on Venezuela and Iran, and OPEC cuts, oil prices will probably stay high untill something breaks.


It looks like they have all Peaked. US production, which was the last growing producer, peaked out with Shale. US production hasn't grown in two months. No other producer has increased production enough to compensate for the declines in Venezuela, Iran, Canadian bitumen and the rest of the world's fields. Without the required petroleum production growth world GDP has been almost stagnant for the last three years at 0.39%. To compensate for the lack of organic growth in the economy (that is needed to service the growing debt burden) the CB have been taking turns injecting credit into the money supply. China just did a cash injection equal to 10% of its GDP. These constant cash injections will drive down interest rates until the credit market collapses. Then we will see a series of cascading defaults that will spread around the world. This type of cascading decline may now be happening with Indian's recent demise of Jet Airways. Jet's bankruptcy may take down Boeing that was already in trouble because it can't build a plane that is safe to fly. With Boeing now in trouble it will affect thousands of it vendors. There is no way to keep the world's $81 trillion economy running without a growing petroleum supply, and the world has Peaked!

Once world GDP goes into decline we may have a year or two before it all falls apart. We will soon know how long we have when the World Bank issues its 2018 GDP report. Then all the shenanigans of stock buy backs, cooked books, magic money creation, and fiscal larceny that has keep the economy running for the last decade will all come crashing down. By then even Wall Street will have figured out that you can't run the modern world without a constant, and forever growing supply of oil.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby Yoshua » Fri 19 Apr 2019, 10:30:32

At peak oil there could be a lot of black swans that might complicate things even more as we push everything to the edge. Boeing could turn into a black swan.

The outbreak of the African swine fever in China could be another black swan out of control and lead to a protein shortage in China.

https://www.vice.com/en_in/article/zmpv ... wine-fever
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 19 Apr 2019, 10:46:25

Yoshua wrote:At peak oil there could be a lot of black swans that might complicate things even more as we push everything to the edge. Boeing could turn into a black swan.

The outbreak of the African swine fever in China could be another black swan out of control and lead to a protein shortage in China.

https://www.vice.com/en_in/article/zmpv ... wine-fever

Yep, or the Venezuelan oil fields ablaze 8O
I think the only way to buy more time for the World Economy is to postpone PO effects. So, to do that make the oil price go higher and keep the Oil Industry viable.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby aldente » Sat 20 Apr 2019, 01:03:28

Sir Douglas Dietrich declared PO to happen at 2025 (not 2005)
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 20 Apr 2019, 08:07:22

At peak oil there could be a lot of black swans that might complicate things even more as we push everything to the edge.


Oil production is no longer growing, but the ERoEI of what remains is still going down. Even if production stays somewhat constant for a brief period, petroleum's ability to power the economy is going down with its declining ERoEI. With no new oil coming on online to keep the ERoEI following the curve downward it is going to look like this at some point in the very near future.:
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That will produce a number of black swans in the economy. The mountain of debt hanging over the economy's head means that there are $80 trillion places for this thing to blow up. Chances are our time is very short. The CB may be able to keep this ship from rolling over for a few years, but that is a long shot. This is about energy, and the oil paradigm is not going to go away fast enough for them to produce a workable response. They are just as likely to make the wrong decisions as the right ones. We are now betting an ounce of luck against a ton of negatives. The future is now buried in very deep shadows of ignorance, hubris, and grandiose illusions. Watch out for the elite, they are more likely to panic, and run over the cliff than the the rest of the sheep. They have farther to fall, and they will be grabbing anything they can get their hands on; on the way down!
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby StarvingLion » Sat 20 Apr 2019, 17:22:39

You're Doomed = SharkFinning + Counterfeit Money + MeltingdownNuclearReactors

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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 20 Apr 2019, 18:12:34

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-04- ... e-industry

SHALE STOCK LOSSES 99% OF ITS VALUE: Investor Warning For The Future Of The Industry?
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 20 Apr 2019, 19:26:25

That article is full of inaccuracies and downright wrong information. As an example, the author goes at length to show that Pioneer Natural Resources is losing money and is going to be a bad investment. All one has to do is pull out the 2018 year-end financial sheet to show this interpretation to complete BS.

IN 2017 Pioneer saw revenues of $5.46 billion and in 2018 that went to $9.42 billion. Total cash expensed (removing DD&A) ended up with total costs (including debt financing) in 2017 of $3.75 billion and that went to $6.63 billion in 2018. And this includes capital associated with the purchase of oil and gas properties ($1.8 billion in 2017 and $3.9 billion in 2018). Exploration drilling amounted to $106 million of that in 2017 and $114 million in 2018. What this means is that revenues – costs prior to spending on drilling and land purchase in 2017 was ~$3.6 billion before tax and in 2018 was ~$6.8 billion before tax. Suggesting the company can’t fund it’s own operations is just basically stupid. Even after E&P spending, they are making a profit according to their finances. It is clear the Sirrocco fellow doesn’t know how to read an annual or quarterly report. Take his investment advice at your own risk. Not surprising it shows up on Zerohedge. The website for the financially illiterate.

for those interested the Pioneer Natural Resources 2018 full year report can be found on their website: http://investors.pxd.com/investor-overview
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 21 Apr 2019, 06:37:22

That article is full of inaccuracies and downright wrong information. As an example, the author goes at length to show that Pioneer Natural Resources is losing money and is going to be a bad investment.


When a company's cash flow does not align with its profits; and visa verse, they are manipulating their financials. Shale's cash flow has not aligned with its posted profits in 15 years. It has $320 billion in debt to show for it. The US government has displayed the same behavior since World War II, and it now has $22 trillion in debt as a result. The world has $253 trillion in debt, and a cash flow of 57. Now that oil production has begun its permanent decline that will come back in spades, and it won't take long. The pump monkeys will be standing in the same bread lines as everyone else.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby asg70 » Sun 21 Apr 2019, 06:57:45

rockdoc123 wrote:That article is full of inaccuracies and downright wrong information.


Which is to be expected from Zerohedge, hence linking to them from here has no impact beyond preaching to the converted.

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby dissident » Sun 21 Apr 2019, 09:03:20

shortonoil wrote:
That article is full of inaccuracies and downright wrong information. As an example, the author goes at length to show that Pioneer Natural Resources is losing money and is going to be a bad investment.


When a company's cash flow does not align with its profits; and visa verse, they are manipulating their financials. Shale's cash flow has not aligned with its posted profits in 15 years. It has $320 billion in debt to show for it. The US government has displayed the same behavior since World War II, and it now has $22 trillion in debt as a result. The world has $253 trillion in debt, and a cash flow of 57. Now that oil production has begun its permanent decline that will come back in spades, and it won't take long. The pump monkeys will be standing in the same bread lines as everyone else.


That is something all the Ponzi scheme GDP worshippers in this thread simply can't understand. They really believe the Ponzi racket can go on forever. How can anyone who treats red ink companies as viable be taken seriously? Such companies by definition have to be propped up. How are they propped up? The magic of the market place? How about a Ponzi racket. We are told that the red ink companies have investors. How are such investors able to recover their investment? Before bitching about inaccuracies in some article, the defenders of their faith should worry about their own inconsistencies.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 21 Apr 2019, 09:28:43

When a company's cash flow does not align with its profits; and visa verse, they are manipulating their financials. Shale's cash flow has not aligned with its posted profits in 15 years. It has $320 billion in debt to show for it. The US government has displayed the same behavior since World War II, and it now has $22 trillion in debt as a result. The world has $253 trillion in debt, and a cash flow of 57. Now that oil production has begun its permanent decline that will come back in spades, and it won't take long. The pump monkeys will be standing in the same bread lines as everyone else.


Manipulating their financials? Have you been in a coma since the sixties perhaps? The numbers I quoted come from the fourth quarter filings to the SEC. Those numbers were audited by a major accounting firm who is legally at risk for not identifying false claims. The company itself is at risk of having its shares halted trading, fines and potential imprisonment for falsely reporting. Since Sarbanes Oxley there are very few small companies that would take this risk let alone a large company like Pioneer. To claim otherwise is simply you saying "oh...the numbers don't agree with the doom I want to spin so they must be lying". :roll:

You, like your cohorts here, have a very poor understanding of accounting principles and how free cash flow is calculated. It always includes depreciation, depletion and amortization which are accounting calculations very useful to the corporation as it allows them to get valuable tax considerations and also useful in understanding the total value of a corporation at the point of sale or merger (value of all those products owned that can be depreciated and are no longer "worth" what they were when they were paid for). In reality, DD&A takes no part in day to day business of oil and gas companies (as I have said in your own annual look at home budget do you include the depreciation on your house and car? Of course not). What does is the money you receive in revenues and the money you pay out to get those revenues on a yearly or quarterly basis. The income portion includes revenue from sales or oil, gas, and properties whereas costs include E&P expenses, OPEX, debt financing, G&A, etc. As I pointed out in the case of Pioneer their revenues minus the costs before E&P and property acquisition easily leave enough for them to conduct their business through cash generated (i.e no new debt) and in fact still have cash on hand remaining. It is all there in stellar black and white in their financial reporting, perhaps you need to learn to read a balance sheet. But according to you, anyone who doesn't report numbers that back up your ridiculous accusations is somehow lying even though it would mean the end of their company.

And you can mindlessly go on and on about debt but Pioneer like many oil and gas companies over the past couple of years has been gradually reducing their debt burden. That is also apparent from their filings. If what you and your cohorts here keep ranting about was anywhere close to the truth there wouldn't be any oil and gas companies operating in the unconventional as they would long ago have gone out of business. Banks are not loaning large amounts of money to oil and gas ventures anymore and there is certainly little appetite for equity investments (i.e new IPO or RTO) which means these companies have to be self-funding. As I point out from the financial filings of many of these companies you can see they are capable of that. I pointed out the same thing on another thread with respect to Concho Resources who someone here claimed was going bankrupt and the numbers instead showed that they were paying for all land acquisition and drilling out of their cash flow without taking on new debt.

How can anyone who treats red ink companies as viable be taken seriously?


Perhaps it requires being able to read a balance sheet properly. Your entire rant shows you haven't a frigging clue what the financials of any of these companies look like. What I pointed out was precisely the information they have filed. So pull your head out of your backside.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby StarvingLion » Fri 26 Apr 2019, 20:06:05

When will rockdoc explain why the recent Saudi prospectus states that Solar and Nuclear will never be more than boutique in KSA for the next 10 years.

It proves that Solar is a total scam. Did rockdoc tell you that? Nope.

When will rockdoc announce the magic energy device that will enable massive EOR? Answer: never.

When are you fools going to realize that:

Electricity != Oil

The intrinsic monetary value of Electricity in the absence of Oil is effective $0.

You are not Electro-Chemical systems, you are Chemical-Electro Systems...without the precious hydrocarbons, you are dead.

When will rockdoc admit that The No Diesel Industry cannot get the real oil out of the ground. The BOE Shale Slop is not a usable type of crude oil. The No Diesel Industry went broke in 1980 and could no afford its own steel...now it cannot afford exotic refineries.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby StarvingLion » Fri 26 Apr 2019, 20:32:37

When will the Solar Scammers admit that Energy Storage is an Oxymoron. Unbounded deployment of Energy Storage is effectively a futile attempt to break The Principle of Energy Conservation (PEC) thus guaranteeing Negative EROEI

You cannot store Energy. You can only store Action.

And Uranium or economically, ecologically, and militarily useless.

Bankrupt K-12 Education System in 2025: "Kids, if you get perfect grades, you will graduate to become Chicken Pluckers"
Idiotic Politicos: "We are going full tilt to be a 21st Century Super-High Tech Solar Society two levels below Caveman"

Level 8 Society: Hemp Oil and Yak Dung Burning
Level 9 Society: Caveman
Level 10 Society: Solar PV
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby StarvingLion » Fri 26 Apr 2019, 20:35:28

Below is The Worldwide Headquarters of The "Federal" "Reserve" in 2025. These worthless sacks of shit will indeed discover The Technological Singularity by being squashed like a Bug from Dropping EROEI between 2020-2025. Bye Bye Vermin!

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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby StarvingLion » Fri 26 Apr 2019, 20:39:04

This Moron is only 5 characters from being a perfect prediction of 2050. It should be entitled From Cave Man to Cave Man. The idiot says 30 million morons are already living in caves. Its going to be a tremendous growth industry.

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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby StarvingLion » Sat 27 Apr 2019, 17:04:41

The Bankrupt "Federal" "Reserve" is blowing its last wad. What will be the result of this EOR; a cliff. You're doomed.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/artic ... ds-decline

Even $45 Billion Can’t Keep PetroChina’s Wells Gushing

The state giant is paying a prohibitive price to raise production from oilfields that appear to be in terminal decline.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 28 Apr 2019, 07:24:56

So, trying to kill two birds with one stone. Debilitating a key rival and trying to prop up shale by causing the oil price to rise


https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2019/0 ... n-a23.html
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