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Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 11 Apr 2019, 14:50:44

The U.S needs high oil prices...and so does Russia. Sometimes it almost seems as if the U.S and Russia are partners. They are like scissors, creating conflicts and cutting down oil producing nations...Iran, Venezuela, Libya..


They are both stuck with the same unfortunate reality, and that is there is only so much the economy can afford to pay for oil. There is only a finite number of BTU that can be supplied to the economy from a gallon of finished product, and that is going down. Since the industry is no longer replacing its reserves it is having a going out of business sale. The product is likely to be sold at any price they can get for it above their lifting cost. Growth is no longer a part of the equation, and it is no longer even being talked about. They are playing the last hand before the deck burst into flames.

The IEA, in its monthly report for April, pointed out that demand was a “very important” piece of the equation for oil market rebalancing and that faced a wall of uncertainty given the less-than-stellar outlook for the global economy.


https://www.investing.com/news/commodit ... 70-1833948
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 11 Apr 2019, 15:51:32

Yoshua wrote:it was my conspiracy theory for today...a bit crazy.


At least you realize this. Maybe resist the temptation next time and spare us the tinfoil?
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby Yoshua » Thu 11 Apr 2019, 16:26:30

"BP is the last of the international oil majors, including Royal Dutch Shell, Exxon Mobil, ConocoPhillips and ENI, to quit exploring for shale gas in China because of poor drilling results. Its departure leaves the sector firmly in the hands of domestic companies."

Reuters

China is facing problems with falling EROEI. Going from conventional natgas to unconventional in China, would be like being sucked into s black hole.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby Yoshua » Fri 12 Apr 2019, 02:24:32

The demand for oil increased by 1.1 mmbpd in February YoY. The increase came from three nations: China, U.S and India. The demand fell in the rest of the world.

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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby Yoshua » Fri 12 Apr 2019, 02:29:50

The demand for gasoline in the U.S is falling though.

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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 12 Apr 2019, 03:55:44

Yet last week gasoline supplies dropped by seven million barrels?
From Rabbit's weekly report.
Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged
9.4 million barrels per day, up by 1.2% from the same period last year.
Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 4.2 million barrels per day over
the past four weeks, up by 3.1% from the same period last year. Jet
fuel product supplied was up 0.7% compared with the same four-week
period last year.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 12 Apr 2019, 09:16:49

The demand for oil increased by 1.1 mmbpd in February YoY. The increase came from three nations: China, U.S and India. The demand fell in the rest of the world.


you do realize that producers anywhere in the world can ship and sell their oil to any of the countries with increasing demand don't you? It doesn't matter if demand has dropped in some countries if overall demand driven by some country or countries somewhere has increased.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby Yoshua » Fri 12 Apr 2019, 09:57:20

I just shared the data.

Although the data seems to suggest that the global economic slowdown is happening outside of China, U.S and India.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 12 Apr 2019, 10:00:46

China is facing problems with falling EROEI. Going from conventional natgas to unconventional in China, would be like being sucked into s black hole.


China's energy efficiency is already very low. Relying on lower EROEI shale gas is only going to make their situation worse. But China is not alone. The entire world is dying from falling ERoEI. It is the effect of energy starvation. Some countries have already reverted back to the stone age, and most are displaying signs of severe stagnation. 40% of Russel 2000 companies are no longer profitable. Their long slow decline does not bode well for their future. With the entire world's equity markets now pumped up on pseudo money, when the credit markets begin to fail the structure of civilization will go with it. A sure sign of that will be when interest rates world wide have gone negative.

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https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-04- ... 2000-firms
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby Yoshua » Fri 12 Apr 2019, 15:30:34

They got really scared in December when oil and the markets started to fall apart. Then Mnuchin called the big national banks.

China has injected 10 percent of GDP in credit January and March.

Junk:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D3-lvJbWkAA ... name=large
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 13 Apr 2019, 13:52:27

"We are mortal beings doomed to die
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 13 Apr 2019, 14:38:08

A 2% decline rate would lead to a recovery of approximately 65% of the OOIP from 1951-2077.


https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/04/10/peak-ghawar/

This article is claiming that Ghawar will have a 65% recovery rate. I'm claiming that Maxine Waters is going to win the World Beauty contest. One must admit that either is possible? Likely is a different matter!

The key here is to look at Figure 7; average permeability. It ranges from a high of 639 to 52. 65% will show up on the first cold day in hell. That is also possible.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 13 Apr 2019, 15:23:43

This article is claiming that Ghawar will have a 65% recovery rate. I'm claiming that Maxine Waters is going to win the World Beauty contest. One must admit that either is possible? Likely is a different matter!

The key here is to look at Figure 7; average permeability. It ranges from a high of 639 to 52. 65% will show up on the first cold day in hell. That is also possible.


Why don't you entertain us with your vast knowledge of reservoir engineering and come up with your own calculated recovery factor?
that should be good for a chuckle.

Aramco has pointed out that their goal is 70% ultimate recovery from all of the fields on average. A number of years ago there was a paper published in the SPE that looked at wettability in the Shedgum area and via lab work arrived at an ultimate recovery of 72%.

According to Aramco reports by 2010 Ghawar had produced 65 billion bbls of oil. If you use 5 MMb/d since then you end up with ~80 Gbbl having been produced to date. The D&M reserve analysis ended up with 48 Gbbl remaining of Proven reserve. Various work done in the past arrives at OOIP for Ghawar at anywhere from 180 to 190 Gbbl which results in a recovery factor between 68% and 72% which agrees well with what Aramco has said is their achievable goal along with support from lab tests conducted to look into wettability in the northern part of Ghawar.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby dissident » Sun 14 Apr 2019, 10:24:28

If EROEI does not matter and only mass printed fiat does, then how come nobody is tapping into the huge conventional oil reserves left in place after regular production withers away. Why not just dig up and process thousands of cubic kilometers of sandstone, dolomite, etc.? Just print up some fiat and you are all set.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 14 Apr 2019, 10:56:09

If EROEI does not matter and only mass printed fiat does, then how come nobody is tapping into the huge conventional oil reserves left in place after regular production withers away. Why not just dig up and process thousands of cubic kilometers of sandstone, dolomite, etc.? Just print up some fiat and you are all set.


CAT would sure approve that plan. The US has left 65% of its oil in the ground. Maybe Roc owns a ground hog farm? He's sure talking his book.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 14 Apr 2019, 17:58:45

The entire global status quo is on the cusp of the S-Curve decline phase.

 https://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2019/04/assange-and-unforgivable-sin-of.html
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 15 Apr 2019, 14:52:18

onlooker wrote:The entire global status quo is on the cusp of the S-Curve decline phase.

 https://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2019/04/assange-and-unforgivable-sin-of.html


Chalk up another feeble attempt to appeal to authority through perma-doomers.

I am really tempted to start collecting statistics for bogus appeals to athority such as this.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 15 Apr 2019, 15:51:10

The entire global status quo is on the cusp of the S-Curve decline phase.


When the stock market becomes totally about companies buying their own stock back, rather than investing those funds in their own businesses you know we are on the downside of the curve. The best return anyone can find is skimming a 1/4 of a point off the FED.

It looks like Russia is going to pull out to their OPEC deal in the near future. $40 oil will take the profit out of the last oil Ponzi schemes. Then well see who has been swimming naked.

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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby dissident » Mon 15 Apr 2019, 19:30:12

No problem. Venture capital charities will continue to finance red-ink tight oil and gas operations into the indefinite future. LOL.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 17 Apr 2019, 15:14:13

No problem. Venture capital charities will continue to finance red-ink tight oil and gas operations into the indefinite future. LOL.


Apparently they aren't going to have to do much more financing. US production has been essentially flat for the last eight weeks. YOY refinery utilization is down about 5%, and gasoline supplied has tumbled. The US has reached Peak as we projected in January, which means the world has Peaked. Shale can no longer compensate for its legacy decline which in 2018 was 1.43 mb/d. Not helping the situation is the Permian that appears to be gassing out with rising GOR. The world is looking at some tough times ahead as GDP will follow oil production's decline. The world Peaked at a Total Production Energy cost of 60% of the average barrel's energy content. That means that the curve is highly skewed, and the back side of the curve will be steeper than the front.
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_dcus_nus_w.htm

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