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Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby Yoshua » Mon 08 Apr 2019, 12:02:25

WTI USD 64.

The shale oil companies are on average just breaking even at this point with the discount of shale oil to the WTI.

It's a tough world out there.

The WTI broke to the up side. I would have lost my dollar bet.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby dirtyharry » Mon 08 Apr 2019, 13:17:29

A post on POB as below .The start of the unraveling of shale .A 57% decline in 1 year . Get some popcorn .
2019-04-08 (ShaleProfile) US – update through December 2018
https://shaleprofile.com/blog/

(2018) Oil production from wells started in 2018 is at: 3,541,921 bo/day, this is 54.4% of the total 6,512,307 bo/day.

(2017) Oil production from wells started in 2017 peaked in December 2017 at 2,889,460 bo/day, they are now producing, December 2018: 1,178,108 bo/day. Giving a drop from the peak of -59.2% in the last 12 months.

(2016) Production from wells started in 2016 peaked in December 2016 at 1,561,476 bo/day, they are now producing, December 2018: 416,032 bo/day. Giving a drop from the peak of -73.4% in the last 24 months.
After one year they were at, December 2017: 662,907 bo/day. Giving a drop from the peak of -57.5% over 12 months
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 08 Apr 2019, 13:55:06

shortonoil wrote:The Etp Model gives the US about 10 years before it strikes here.


Huh? Last I checked ETP predicted oil prices would hit 0 in, I dunno, 2-3 years max. I take it you want to shift the goalposts to give yourself a clear decade of breathing room in which to troll this forum?
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 08 Apr 2019, 14:11:28

Unlike the USA, Russia has way more fossil fuels than it needs for the coming 100 years.


This is what ASPO had to say about Russia's fields in the mid 2000's. Although they are extensive their cost of development will be extremely high. Russia, to date, has relied on a few mega fields which are showing signs of advanced depletion.

Large Fields
Russia, Samotlor megafield - Smatlor North (TNKBP concession only) - reserves 8.1 billion barrels oil equivalent in place, up to 25% may be recoverable, and 18% has been recovered to date - peaked, production declining at about 9% pa - TNKBP - the Samatlor field was water flooded earlier than necessary, which may have reduced is ability to ultimately recover as much reserve as it should have.

East Siberia - Vankorskoye - up to 660,00 barrels a day by 2014 - reserves 2.5 billion barrels - Vankor is in an extreme climate, making production very challenging, but flow rates from some wells have been exceptionally good. Most of the 200 plus wells will be horizontally drilled and many will be equipped to monitor oil flow rates to maximise efficient extraction. Production is due 2008, at a level of about 40,000 barrels a day. Ultimate production is expected to be between about 500,000 and 660,000 barrels a day - RosNeft.

East Eurasia - Russia -Sakhalin basin area 1 - Chayvo field - commenced 2005 - 250,000 barrels a day (anticip. year end 2006) - reserves 2.3 billion barrels oil - ExxonMobil, Rosneft ONGS - will peak 2007 unless the license area is extended. Also has 17 Tcf of gas.

Medium Sized Fields
Central Eurasia - Russia - Kharyaga - 30,000 barrels a day - reserves of 0.71 Giga barrels, 420 Mb recoverable - Total, Norsk Hydro, Nenets.

Central Eurasia - Russia - Urals/Volga basin - Romashkino - discovered 1948 - mature field in decline - ultimately recoverable reserves ~ 16 gigabarrels - produced so far ?

Arctic
?2006 - Central Eurasia - Russia - Pechora Sea polar continental shelf - Prirazlomnoyo - offshore - 155,000 barrels a day expected - peak expected 610,000 barrels in 2010 - proven reserves about 0.61 Giga barrels -Rosneft/Gazprom

Small fields
2009 - Central Eurasia - Russia - West Salym, Upper Salym and Vadelyp fields - 120,000 barrels per day expected  Salym Petroleum Development NV (50:50 Shell:Sibir Energy) - note Upper Salym has already commenced, Vadelyp is expected in 2006

2009 - Central Eurasia - Russia - West Siberia Uvatskoye project - 60 million tons of oil reserves recoverable - 200,000 barrels a day - TNKBP

Russia has a number of smaller fields in Siberia. As a result of the extremely harsh environment in which they are located their development, if done at all, will be extremely expensive.

Russia - Verkhnechonskoye - the 'largest' oil and gas field found in East Siberia. Isolated, awaiting the Russian Governments implementation of the Eastern Siberia –Pacific Coast pipeline system. The cost may be 10 billion dollars.The costs of drilling in the harsh Siberian conditions are an enormous barrier to development.

Russia's long term production potential is far from assured. Like so much of the world's remaining petroleum resource most of it is likely to be more expensive to extract than the economy can afford. Falling ERoEI will reduce its value to society to zero.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 08 Apr 2019, 15:26:10

How long a time will the Venezuelan oil buy us Short?
Because we sure seem intent on getting it all for ourselves
https://truthout.org/articles/the-us-is ... venezuela/
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby Cog » Mon 08 Apr 2019, 15:58:59

Might as well ask a random guy on the street that question onlooker. Shorty has proven he knows less than nothing about oil.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 08 Apr 2019, 16:38:52

Once again there seems to be individuals here who can't make up their mind. First off they were arguing Venezuela oil is worthless...too heavy, nobody wants it and now they are arguing the US is prepared to go to war just to get that oil that apparently according to their earlier convictions was worthless. Did you guys miss that point in debate class where they tell you it isn't a good idea to contradict yourself? :roll:

The US does not need Venezuelan crude. They currently import 20 MMb/yr from Venezuela which is a mix of heavy oil and blended heavy with medium crude (at it's all time high they only imported 60 MMb/yr). That makes up only 6% of total imports. If the US is finding itself short of heavy oil for the refineries (which it is not) then the solution is to solve the pipeline bottlenecks from Alberta which is currently suffering from stranded resources. No war required there, although I'm sure there would be support for the US capturing Canada's Prime Minister and renditioning him for an extended period! :roll:
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 08 Apr 2019, 17:55:56

How long a time will the Venezuelan oil buy us Short?


As far as I can determine, excluding the hype about 500 Gb, Venezuela has about 40 - 60 Gb of oil that could be used to supplement US consumption. For the US that would translate to about 7 years of supply. You must also remember that the US has about 1/2 a million stripper wells that produce about 2.5 mb/d to add to that number. By drilling all those wells in conventional formations the US has already invested the funds to secure some of its long term supply. If the economic situation does not deteriorate to the point where the economy can not function, they should continue to produce for many decades. Throwing in another million, or two of deep water and Canadian oil, by reducing its exports of finished product, the US might survive in some reasonably coherent form for another 15 to 20 years. But it is very hard to see what will transition past the 2030 "dead state". That is the point where the average barrel falls below the ERoEI of 6.9:1, and can no longer add value to the economy. It is the point where half of the world's production could only serve as an energy transfer mechanism. Without a functioning economy to supply the needed energy to transfer, it would have no value.

Venezuela is a very difficult situation. It is obvious why the Russians and Chinese want to limit US access to the Venezuelan fields. US arms manufactures who have used the Russian, mostly concocted, terror hoax to keep extorting a $1 trillion a year from the US government have not produced a friendly atmosphere with those nations. Shutting off US access to future oil supplies would be a strategic maneuver. Without Venezuela the Russians would out last the US in this last, and ending oil war of attrition. But in reality there is very little that Russia can do to reboot the Venezuelan economy; which is rapidly headed back to the stone age. They don't have the money, or the diluent. The ending of empires have always been treacherous periods of history. This one will be no different.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby Cog » Mon 08 Apr 2019, 19:47:14

Well shorty once again proved he knows nothing about global oil production and supply.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby StarvingLion » Mon 08 Apr 2019, 19:53:22

Boeing stock is on the brink of total collapse. Its stock chart is the same as GE as it began to tank.

BA down 5% today.

You know what this means: Boeing stock tells us the state of North-Central Ghawar. And that state is its now in

Steep Terminal Decline

Which means a bunch of crows will soon be burrowing into your butts.

Bye bye
You're screwed. Admit it.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 08 Apr 2019, 20:46:18

I can't imagine what Boeing's stock price driven down by their troubles with the 737 Max has to do with the oil flow in KSA or the Ghawar oil field.
On a side note the Asphalt from Venezuela makes some of the best highway pavements ever constructed. It has the right blend of aromatic oils in it to keep the pavement flexible, strong and cracked free for decades of winters and millions of heavy truck loads. Asphalt cements made from dilbit and other sources of heavy oil may pass weight and viscosity tests when new but they just don't last as long in the road.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby Cog » Tue 09 Apr 2019, 03:23:22

Boeing's stock price, even with their technical problems with the 737, is higher than it was in December 2018. Can't any doomer read a stock chart? Boeing is going to be around a long time. Military contracts are worth a lot even if the civilian side is having problems.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby StarvingLion » Wed 10 Apr 2019, 11:06:58

Boeing stock is in total freefall. BA stock will be $5 in two years.

GE stock is again collapsing. Hows that GE stock doing for ya Cogfidence Man

Its all a big coincidence...HAHAHAHAHA.
You're screwed. Admit it.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby StarvingLion » Wed 10 Apr 2019, 11:48:21

Cog wrote:Boeing's stock price, even with their technical problems with the 737, is higher than it was in December 2018. Can't any doomer read a stock chart? Boeing is going to be around a long time. Military contracts are worth a lot even if the civilian side is having problems.


The military is completely bankrupt. The bill from the Iraq war caused the currency collapse in 2008.

That was almost 20 years ago. Now, you couldn't run those useless F-35 junks for a week without causing a currency collapse.

F-35's and Abram tanks are useless against AK-47's, RPG's, mortars, IED's....
You're screwed. Admit it.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 10 Apr 2019, 12:07:17

StarvingLion wrote:
Cog wrote:Boeing's stock price, even with their technical problems with the 737, is higher than it was in December 2018. Can't any doomer read a stock chart? Boeing is going to be around a long time. Military contracts are worth a lot even if the civilian side is having problems.


The military is completely bankrupt. The bill from the Iraq war caused the currency collapse in 2008.

That was almost 20 years ago. Now, you couldn't run those useless F-35 junks for a week without causing a currency collapse.

F-35's and Abram tanks are useless against AK-47's, RPG's, mortars, IED's....

The military can't go bankrupt as long as there is a taxpayer left standing.
As to F-35s they are being deployed on schedule even to Air National Guard units like Vermont's Green Mountain Boys.
https://www.wcax.com/content/news/New-d ... 77801.html
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 10 Apr 2019, 15:36:37

Well shorty once again proved he knows nothing about global oil production and supply.


Surely the CogMister as more specific references to include? He just couldn't remember them on such short notice. Maybe he forgot where he put the postage stamp he had them written on.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 11 Apr 2019, 10:05:05

It's been fashionable ever since Iraq War 2 to suggest any foreign policy tension with an oil producer is a pretext for a resource-grab. But that's all it is, a knee-jerk accusation. (Chavez pretty much built his political support on this paranoia, as did others.) Trump is shameless enough to rationalize a resource war if he felt it necessary but aside from that one strike he ordered in Syria in retaliation for gassing civilians he has been relatively isolationist in his foreign policy. He's sometimes a saber rattler, but just isn't a neocon. That won't stop people here from continuing to predict an invasion, of course. No amount of common sense stops the silliness here.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 11 Apr 2019, 12:23:49

How long a time will the Venezuelan oil buy us Short?
Because we sure seem intent on getting it all for ourselves


How long we have may not necessarily be a part of oil's present decline. The damage may have already been done as the world's GDP to Debt ratio appears to be rolling over. Managing the debt is going to be growing more difficult at an exponential rate. If the CB go ballistic we will know why.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby Cog » Thu 11 Apr 2019, 13:37:46

Invading Venezuela doesn't gain the US anything but problems. We already have access to plentiful oil supplies.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby Yoshua » Thu 11 Apr 2019, 13:48:00

The U.S needs high oil prices...and so does Russia. Sometimes it almost seems as if the U.S and Russia are partners. They are like scissors, creating conflicts and cutting down oil producing nations...Iran, Venezuela, Libya..


Well...it was my conspiracy theory for today...a bit crazy. At least they should by secretly conspiring to raise oil prices.
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