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Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 02 Apr 2019, 13:28:42

Petrobras is an over indebted oil company. Can Petrobras even produce oil from the pre salt reservoirs economically?


No, and they never could. These are mostly small deposits in 15k+ feet of water, under 5,000 feet of salt. This was all PR from the get go. Tell people that over there is a whole lot of oil, and someone will be dumb enough to finance it. Peak is here, and we had better start dealing with it, or we will be eating the weeds out of our lawns very soon.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 02 Apr 2019, 16:53:19

No, and they never could. These are mostly small deposits in 15k+ feet of water, under 5,000 feet of salt. This was all PR from the get go. Tell people that over there is a whole lot of oil, and someone will be dumb enough to finance it. Peak is here, and we had better start dealing with it, or we will be eating the weeds out of our lawns very soon.


Good God do you actually believe the complete and utter nonsense that you continually spew here?
Here are the facts regarding Brazils pre-salt:

Petrobras has been producing from the pre-salt for just short of a decade. In 2010 their production from pre-salt was 41,000 bpd and in 2018 it was 1.5 million bbls/d. The 2018 production comes from 77 producing wells. They note the most productive well in Lula flowing at an average of 36,000 bopd. At Libra oil columns are up to 400 m thick. Lula field now has 9 production platforms active and recoverable reserves are estimated at 7 billion bbls. So yes they could produce it, no it isn't small deposits and it has been producing for a long time at high rates almost entirely the exact opposite of what you infer. Why am I not surprised. :roll:
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby StarvingLion » Thu 04 Apr 2019, 11:32:49

The rockdoc has no credibility post:

1. Global Shale has heterogeneous geology with never ending learning curve and exponential rising costs.
2. rockdoc: "Increase production from Canada"

Canada is totally broke, 1 step away from Venezuela status:

https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/exxon ... 8-article/

Exxon Hits the Brakes on $1.9B Project

Any decision to resume normal activity will depend on future government actions and general market conditions, Imperial said Friday.

3. Productivity improvements

See Well Spacing Disaster, equipment breaking down in new shale areas in Argentina (endless learning curve), etc

4. Decline Rate will remain steady

Bzzzt wrong. Already the reports are coming in that Conventional Oil is now in a significantly higher decline rate.

rockdoc has no credibility. He doesn't want to tell you that Conventional Oil Fields will require 100's of trillions in EOR just to maintain existing production plateau. Shale is a total disaster, hence the umpteenth time a KSA IPO is "in the works".

rockdoc's "pals", The Rockspam and Coffeeguise have abandoned him.

I'm downgrading rockdoc from BuzzardMeat to WormFood.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby StarvingLion » Thu 04 Apr 2019, 11:41:02

The Gold Whackos have no credibility either.

Primary Energy Pursuit with Infinite Fiat: Fracking

Primary Energy Pursuit with new Gold Currency: Fracking

As I have indicated in the post above, Fracking is strictly:

A Bloody Waste of Time

I guess "Armageddon", BW Hill, and The Dissident will have to delude themselves with something else.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby StarvingLion » Thu 04 Apr 2019, 11:54:12

Europe is so broke, it can't afford Used Toasters, nevermind EV's. The EV'ers remind me of The Band Playing on the Titanic; it seems civilized and proper and all, but irrelevant in context.

Physics is Bankrupt. Can't afford a useless Particle Accelerator because, well, these stupid devices are very good at using lots of energy, and not so good at ever generating any energy. Particle Accelerators are an EROEI disaster. The CERN scam has to be shut down because there is no cheap oil.

http://backreaction.blogspot.com/2019/0 ... igger.html

Nonsense arguments for building a bigger particle collider that I am tired of hearing (The Ultimate Collection)
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 04 Apr 2019, 12:38:12

StarvingLion wrote:As I have indicated in the post above, Fracking is strictly:

A Bloody Waste of Time


A waste of time that is producing 7.2 million barrels of oil a day plus a good bit of natural gas. 8)
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby Yoshua » Fri 05 Apr 2019, 05:26:08

The WTI crude oil price $62.

The price is right at the line of resistance. Will it brake to the up side...or will it crash? Well...we will just have to wait and see...
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby Yoshua » Fri 05 Apr 2019, 09:10:25

The coal price has collapsed from resent high.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-aust ... SKCN1RH0IQ
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 05 Apr 2019, 17:38:33

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/S ... rades.html


Saudi Arabia Threatens To Drop Dollar For Oil Trades

Seems more like the ongoing process of abandoning the Dollar
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby dissident » Sat 06 Apr 2019, 13:53:39

StarvingLion wrote:The Gold Whackos have no credibility either.

Primary Energy Pursuit with Infinite Fiat: Fracking

Primary Energy Pursuit with new Gold Currency: Fracking

As I have indicated in the post above, Fracking is strictly:

A Bloody Waste of Time

I guess "Armageddon", BW Hill, and The Dissident will have to delude themselves with something else.



Take some lithium Bozo. Your rambling BS above seems to indicate that you think fracking will go on forever. Get a grip.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 07 Apr 2019, 05:19:12

Saudi Arabia Threatens To Drop Dollar For Oil Trades


With the BIS, and even the IMF calling for a new world cyrpto currency the $ is rapidly being demoted to the trash bin of history. Oil is no longer the standard by which a currency can be valued. That is the result of its falling energy delivery capability to the economy, but since we are at Peak, and maintenance of the world's $247 trillion in debt is no longer even remotely possible with the existing system the CB can only continue to exist by introducing a currency system that can be maintained with a negative interest rate. A debt based system can not, so it has to go! The CB will continue to do what they have always done; that is stealing everyone's money. Gold, and silver (to some extent) are the most likely commodities to retain any value in this world where cannibalization of existing assets is the only means of survival.

So let's not kid ourselves, the Saudi will eventually drop the dollar because they won't have any other choice. Since they soon won't have any oil either, it most likely won't make that much difference. The association between world GDP and petroleum production is coming to its end, and when it does so will everything else. The end of the oil age will be preceded by a world in economic ruin.

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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby Yoshua » Sun 07 Apr 2019, 05:33:00

By Rajhi Capital

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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 07 Apr 2019, 07:26:52

The Massive Increase Of Central Bank Paper Assets Warns Of Financial Danger AheadBy purchasing increasingly worthless paper assets, we can thank the central banks for propping up the global economy for the past decade.



https://srsroccoreport.com/the-massive- ... ger-ahead/
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby dissident » Sun 07 Apr 2019, 10:20:52

onlooker wrote:
The Massive Increase Of Central Bank Paper Assets Warns Of Financial Danger AheadBy purchasing increasingly worthless paper assets, we can thank the central banks for propping up the global economy for the past decade.



https://srsroccoreport.com/the-massive- ... ger-ahead/


A natural development in the debt Ponzi racket that has been driving GDP "growth" of the developed world for decades. This sort of debt quality degradation entropy was to be expected. Sort of like printing money like Pancho Villa gives you hyperinflation. There is no free lunch in the form of debt.

The reliance on the debt Ponzi begs the obvious question as to why real growth was inadequate and needed to be doped up. Looks like the winning economic system ain't so hot after all.

All those people who think that paper instruments will drive the real economy and real resource extraction into the indefinite future are terminally deluded.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 07 Apr 2019, 10:22:47

By Rajhi Capital



that graph is labeled incorrectly....the numbers shown are finding and development costs, not operating costs. Concho Resources, as an example, reports their lease operating costs in their quarterly reports and for the 4th quarter of 2018 it was $6.00 - $6.50 per boe. They also point out their break even cost on average is around $28/boe which jives with the F&D number of $29.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby Yoshua » Sun 07 Apr 2019, 10:57:11

Thanks. I actually thought that the operating costs looked too high.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby Yoshua » Sun 07 Apr 2019, 14:36:39

There has been nationwide mass protests in Sudan against the regime as well for some time...and now there is a total power blackout.

Another nation in collapse mode with a decaying power infrastructure.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 07 Apr 2019, 22:02:58

Thanks. I actually thought that the operating costs looked too high.


Actually their estimates are about correct. The EIA puts OP costs in the EF at $25/barrel. In the same document on page 97 its shows OP costs for the Permian at about $35. Permian oil is a lot further from its buyer, and its average well depth is 15,300 feet with an average water cut of 50%. The Permian is better quality oil than most of the other shale plays, and it has higher OP, but it is not cheap. The majors must really be desperate to invest there, but apparently they need the diluent, they know what's coming for the rest of the shale industry, and they don't have any other options. This is going to really whack their bottom line.
https://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/dr ... stream.pdf

$6 a barrel makes no sense. Waste water disposal alone runs $1 to $8 a barrel.
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Another nation in collapse mode with a decaying power infrastructure.


Two nations down and out in 6 months; about 150 more before it gets to the US. The Etp Model gives the US about 10 years before it strikes here. That is assuming it is the last man standing. Standing while glowing in the dark may, or may not count? China and Russia will push the button right after their lights go out. Free Xray treatments, will staying at home, may be one of the better benefits at the end of the oil age.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby dissident » Mon 08 Apr 2019, 09:59:23

Unlike the USA, Russia has way more fossil fuels than it needs for the coming 100 years. And also unlike all the snowflake "ubbermenschen" in the west, it is building up its nuclear power capacity. In addition to solar and wind projects. The only ones that will be pushing the the button are the demented clowns in Washington since they will not tolerate the concept of being second place. I am sure that reality has other plans.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 08 Apr 2019, 11:05:53

Actually their estimates are about correct.


no they are not. The graph posted shows individual companies, some of which are top performers in core areas of various plays. As I pointed out Concho reports their lease operating cost in SEC filings. The EIA study is an average throughout a particular play (and the Permian is $15 - $35) according to their analysis. Their cost analysis breakdown shows they only considered cases where artificial lift and water disposal were necessary when many companies are now using cheaper PCP rather than ESP (much lower cost as they can use produced gas) and reusing all produced water as frack fluid (drops costs). In certain parts of the plays very little artificial lift is needed. Rystad Energy has shown wellhead breakeven in the shales as low as $28/bbl in core areas and overall breakeven prices (which include cost of capital and dividend payments) at around $50/bbl.

Once again the lease operating costs for various companies are reported in their quarterly and year-end reports. Given the chart specified individual companies looking at play metrics which include a full range of reservoir and fluid types (as the EIA did) is entirely misleading.
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