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Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby Yoshua » Thu 28 Mar 2019, 15:16:30

The lights are back on.

"Cities across Venezuela recovered electricity on Thursday after the blackout, the second major one in less than a month. Maduro on Wednesday night blamed the outage on a “terrorist attack” on the Guri hydroelectric facility that provides electricity to most of the country."
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 28 Mar 2019, 21:16:39

And Venezuela relates to the thread...how...exactly?
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 28 Mar 2019, 23:56:14

Yoshua wrote:The oil price broke down from its rising wedge today. The bounce from the collapse in Nov-Dec is over.

The global economy is slowing down. Bond yields are falling, inverting, going negative.

Deflation is coming. Energy is the key (EROEI).

Try specifying something.

What bond yields are going negative, specifically?

The WTI and the Brent oil prices are showing up for the day. Oil (both Brent and WTI) have been in a solid uptrend for over 3 months. Desperately looking for a slight down move in oil for an hour or three is NOT evidence of anything "breaking down".

Deflation may or may not be coming. Even if it does, there is NO evidence energy is the cause.

You sound about as credible as armageddon claiming any decrease in any index is "a crash".
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 28 Mar 2019, 23:58:15

shortonoil wrote:The economy has reached the point where CB currency creation can no longer compensate for organic growth decline. It occurred at an ERoEI of 8.1:1. It also appears to have occurred about the time that legacy declines overwhelmed new production increases. Reserves that will be extracted are declining by 36 Gb a year. $60 oil is breaking the economy.

As usual, you have no clue whatg you're talking about. 2010 - 2014 showed $100 oil hardly bothered the global economy. The only place the economy can't handle $60 oil is in your deluded mind.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby Yoshua » Fri 29 Mar 2019, 08:12:30

Venezuela is going down the net energy cliff (EROEI). The decaying infrastructure is a result of not having enough energy to maintain it.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby Yoshua » Fri 29 Mar 2019, 08:28:13

The U.S is going down the net energy cliff as well. This will have strange political consequences.

A weird observation:

The GOP has said that God wanted Trump to win the presidency. That God's hand is guiding Trump.

Trump has his MAGA crowd and the Qanon cultists at the MAGA rallies. After the witch hunt is now over, Qanon is now their prophet and Trump is their Messiah. Even Christ was attacked by the establishment.

This is freaking weird. America is modern nation.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 29 Mar 2019, 08:48:15

As usual, you have no clue whatg you're talking about.


There you go again, stealing Rockdoc's insults. One would think that the possessor of all human knowledge could at least think of their own degrading, bigoted remarks. Being a complete ignorant jerk is just not enough anymore; you need originality! Stop by the site sometime and I'll give some pointers on how to be a complete total A-hole. I'd stop by yours, but you don't have one? A-hole dot com is still available though. And NO, the economy didn't handle $100 oil. It didn't handled it so well that the CB had to pump $16 trillion of counterfeit currency into circulation to keep it from collapsing. It is now collapsing anyway, and this time it will be permanent.

Historically, and every time that the cost of crude (calculated with WTI) has exceeded about 3.5% of world GDP the price has crashed. It is the maximum that the economy can afford to pay for its oil, and that is the result of the energy that oil can deliver to the economy (which on a per unit bases is going down). The price is again approaching 3% of GDP and will soon collapse again. This time however will be the last. Not much of the world's remaining oil can be produced for less than what it is presently bringing. Any resemblance of a modern technological economy will go with the oil. The Dark Ages will begin again where it left off 1000 years ago almost immediately after the lights go out.

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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 29 Mar 2019, 09:08:43

Venezuela is going down the net energy cliff (EROEI). The decaying infrastructure is a result of not having enough energy to maintain it.


Jesus wept.....the decaying infrastructure is a result of Chavez and then Maduro taking revenues from oil and distributing it as "gifts/social program spending" to the poor indigenous in order to bolster continuing support at the polls at the expense of reinvesting that money back into maintenance and further development in the oil fields. When the price dropped in 2014 that made the situation worse as more and more oil and gas revenue had to be funneled into social programs to maintain the status quo. Time to read a newspaper I think. :roll:
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 29 Mar 2019, 12:29:27

shortonoil wrote:
As usual, you have no clue whatg you're talking about.


There you go again, stealing Rockdoc's insults. One would think that the possessor of all human knowledge could at least think of their own degrading, bigoted remarks. Being a complete ignorant jerk is just not enough anymore; you need originality!

So you have NOTHING meaningful to say. Just more spewing like a small child.

Got it. Totally expected.

Thank you for confirming my observation that YOU HAVE NO IDEA WHAT YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT.

And when you can show me something in writing re this site's rules that demands I ensure my observations are unique by carefully reviewing or memorizing ALL OTHER POSTER'S COMMENTS, even for common phrasing -- be sure and let us know.

Hint: you'd be more successful deflecting by jingling keys at another small child. And I know, other people have used the phrase "jingling keys" before, including myself. :lol:

I'm sure you'd be exactly as successful in that endeavor as you are in saying anything meaningful about oil or economics, or making good predictions as well. :roll:

You know, just making up your own reality and actually believing in it could qualify you for the loony bin, right? Or are you too far gone to see that?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 29 Mar 2019, 12:41:36

Cog wrote:So when your model fails to predict anything useful, you go back to blaming some other nebulous force as to why you are wrong. How convenient for you all.

And how credible. :idea: :roll:

I suppose I should hide now, as I'll be accused of being a stupid, evil, nebulous force. Another example of the amazing integrity and crediblity of the ever awesome short! /s

Isn't it an AMAZING coincidence how both unprovable conspiracies and nonsensical theories like the ETP are constantly done in by a web of dark, nebulous forces.

NO CHANCE of course, that the common theme there would be paranoia... :?: :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 29 Mar 2019, 12:50:11

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Yoshua wrote:The oil price broke down from its rising wedge today. The bounce from the collapse in Nov-Dec is over.

So, your (likely stolen / copied) observation re technical analysis is the usual Yoshua FAIL in less than one day. Congrats! :roll:

How many thousands of silly calls of that caliber are you going to regale us with over time, in your attempts to make shorty look correct, prove doom, etc?

Hint: At least PRETEND you know something about technical analysis, and wait a week, or better a month or two and see if your call even BEGINS to be confirmed.

But I know, you're so desperate to show ANY figure that might look like doom, you want to spew all that you can. It's as though a truckload of nonsense is far more credible than a handful of actual reasonable points / observations, in your mind.

Hint 2: It's not. But I know, you'll keep playing, having nothing better to do.

Meanwhile, WTI is back over $60, the ETP bozo looks worse and worse, and you keep frantically trying to defend him.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 29 Mar 2019, 14:22:23

Yoshua wrote:Venezuela is going down the net energy cliff (EROEI). The decaying infrastructure is a result of not having enough energy to maintain it.


Image

Venezuela is where Russia was around the time of the fall of the soviet union. They have more exploitable hydrocarbons but socialism has (temporarily) destroyed their ability to do anything with it. This has been explained multiple times but doomers keep clinging to your narrative.

Note that people like Orlov previously clung to the fall of the soviet union as a harbinger of what the world would look like post-peak only to look like idiots when russian oil production actually BOUNCED BACK under their current clemtocratic flavor of capitalism emerged.

Point being that doomers ALWAYS serve up above-ground issues as false proof of geologic depletion/exhaustion.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 29 Mar 2019, 15:29:49

NEXT OIL DOMINO TO FALL? Mexico Becomes A Net Oil Importer

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-03- ... l-importer
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby Yoshua » Sat 30 Mar 2019, 03:56:00

The poor in Venezuela voted for food, medicine and education...thinking that the oil wealth was there.

The poor in the U.S will vote for food stamps, health care and free education in 2020...thinking that the wealth is there?

Even the weirdo in the Whitehouse is a better choice. Democracy is a dangerous tool in these strange days.

I have noticed that it is really hard to call the top in the oil price...but we very close now?

The WTI technical chart:

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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 30 Mar 2019, 06:49:22

I think such charts are useless because tomorrow's price is not effected by any past price or set of conditions but only on the then current supply and demand conditions.
But playing with your chart out of boredom, why don't you move your long term trend line up from the valleys to connect the peaks in June and October. That would project out to a peak of about $85 and keep right on rising if you extend the chart a few more years forward.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby Cog » Sat 30 Mar 2019, 10:13:00

Chartists seem to believe that charts magically constrain prices or predict the future. Charts are a tool but don't bet money on them.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby Yoshua » Sat 30 Mar 2019, 10:14:39

That was the channel the WTI price moved in... untill it hit the wall of a longer term falling trend line and the price collapsed by breaking down to the downside of the support line of that channel.

Bored? Let's see if the WTI price reaches the old support line, which is now the line of resistance...and then crashes...or breaks to the upside.

I bet one dollar that the price will crash!
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 30 Mar 2019, 10:23:38

Yoshua wrote:

I bet one dollar that the price will crash!

By what date and how far? I'll bet a dollar it will double if I don't have to say when. :)
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby Yoshua » Sat 30 Mar 2019, 10:24:26

Cog wrote:Chartists seem to believe that charts magically constrain prices or predict the future. Charts are a tool but don't bet money on them.


Too late.

:)
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby Yoshua » Sat 30 Mar 2019, 10:28:46

vtsnowedin wrote:
Yoshua wrote:

I bet one dollar that the price will crash!

By what date and how far? I'll bet a dollar it will double if I don't have to say when. :)


Let's not make this too complicated. I say it won't brake the line of resistance.
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