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Guy McPherson Pt. 1

Re: Guy McPherson

Unread postby Revi » Wed 02 Jan 2019, 11:00:05

He gets a little maudlin around an hour into it. He says that extinction was locked in when the first homo sapiens walked the earth. I suppose it's right in the long run, because every successful species has about a million year run. It will just freak people out to tell them that. One thing is for sure. Guy McPherson is not going to have much of a political career!
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7 days in a week and someday is not one of them

Unread postby Whitefang » Fri 04 Jan 2019, 14:29:20

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cw0AAsGaDg0

Let us live with urgency, as if this could be our last day, our last moment, our last dance on this stage, a fight against death.
Let us drop this acting as if we are immortal beings, as if death will never touch us, a petty arrogant mistake.
Like my dadday dearest at the end of Altzheimers disease, every moment of well being is welcome, a terrible condition, Always looking for home, his family, loved ones, even when he is home with his beloved.


Let us accept that time is not on our side and act accordingly, whatever that means in your personal situation.
Death being the only thing that bring sobriety and therefore control over our idiocy, especially for males who loose their marbles at the drop of a hat :roll:
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Re: Guy McPherson

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 06 Jan 2019, 01:09:36

Revi wrote: Guy makes some great points, and if you talk to other climate scientists they all are saying the same thing.


Guy claimed over the summer that civilization would be ending, September 2018 or so.

Can you please provide a reference showing other climate scientists saying the same thing?
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After sea ice

Unread postby Whitefang » Sun 06 Jan 2019, 09:19:13

Adam,

Guy were wrong on the date, thank God, we are still here alive and well.
He thought that the sea ice would be gone by september, first BOE.
That in turn would trigger collapse of (corn) harvest, consumer confidence down as well as markets, global dimming up in thin air, 3 degrees avarage temperature increase within weeks/months……..end of the world as we know it.
A very likely scenario, alike Paul B. on one of his 500 video's saying the same thing with methane/hydrates in the mix.

Every arctic scientist is well aware of the arctic death spiral, just like all people living up North, literate or not.
That remnant of ice is the only thing holding back a sudden jump, abrupt CC, grain based societies like ours are toast after a 2 degrees temp.increase, that is why so many scientists are studying and monitoring the poles these days, the end of an era, start of a hothouse.
Like your body, like complex life on Earth, it cannot cope with a 4 degrees fever.

I am monitoring the heat daily basis, I think when it reaches or disrupts the sea ice beyond the Kara sea into the Laptev, we will see the moist heat storm after storm moving along East Siberia on to Alaska, moving the sea ice down the Fram, preventing a new winter build up, a new ocean summer and winter in the blink of an eye…...within 2 or 3 years.
What do you think/guess what will happen?

Such a huge system/many things to think of but the trend is clear, the ice, sea and land, snow cover is done for and so are we as a society, we need a stable climate for our crops, we are 100% dependant on the weather.
Imagine bread costing 20 dollars a piece, a burger? That would cause world wide civil war, alike this phony war of terror, a worldwide idiocy made up by the 8000 plus families that control the other 8 billion. A source of great pleasure is that they will not hold things together, they will die like us, they are dependant of control by fear over others.
The elites think they have until 2030, they are closing power plants/oil/gasreservoirs, energy for the masses while prepping to stay afloat in their palaces, even ships with anti rocket systems, anything to keep their stuff together.

I wish we still had a decade or so but it looks grim.
We need a miracle.
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.

Take care,

JCW
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Re: Guy McPherson

Unread postby Cog » Sun 06 Jan 2019, 09:35:12

"A source of great pleasure is that they will not hold things together, they will die like us, they are dependant of control by fear over others."

And there it is folks. The doomerism psychology in all its glory.
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Atlantis

Unread postby Whitefang » Sun 06 Jan 2019, 10:24:10

Yup Cog,

And then I have not even touched on the ultimate conscpiracy……….Doom from garden of Eden on.
What use would it be to keep secrets if humanity stands on the brink of disaster, safe only by the grace of a wonderfull ignorance?
Would you like to know the greatest, darkest secret of them all?
Mind you that it will not help to know things but why not shed some light on affairs while there is still time to work for freedom, for real power, a sort of feeling Lucky, from the belly, not the head, not our petty little mindset.

Funny, working on a story to say what I like to, I just do not see another way to bring it.
Truth is really stranger than fiction, much, much stranger, way beyond incredible.

Where to start right?

Before or after the flood, the biblical one...….Aboriginals still tell stories about the first flood, moving of the great barrier reef, the folks on the North Sea bottom moving to England or main lowlands. The societies before agriculture might not have been so interested in ruling over this world we have names for, everything you can think of.
Now we are on the verge of a second meltwater pulse and on the brink of finding out that this world is not a solid as it looks like.
Socrates knew things, Plato tried writing it down with the help of allegories…..the cave/Atlantis, the lost kingdom.

You think all those philosiphers of history were wrong in hunting for something hidden in plain view?
All religion wrong in searching for something inside?

Mind and ritual are no key, only saving personal power is.
One of the ways is by silencing the mind but that is just a step, breaking the barrrier of perception, the bubble we tend to live in.

Anyway, freedom and power are personal and so is this world, for your eyes only. Alone in a hostile universe, dark sea of awareness.

So be it.


And yes, I deem tyrannicide as legal, even if it is not out of self defence or defence of friends and family, it will improve the world, make it a better place, clean up the dirt…...drain the swamp like Trump on elite child ritual sex clubs.
For some people there should be no place in this world.

Allrighty then, enough ranting……..

I'll try with a long post/story to make things acceptable, without many typo's and grammar to perfection ok?

Might be better under open topics though :roll:
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Dr.Judah

Unread postby Whitefang » Sun 06 Jan 2019, 12:49:38

https://www.aer.com/science-research/cl ... cillation/

Dr. Judah Cohen from Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER) recently embarked on an experimental process of regular research, review, and analysis of the Arctic Oscillation (AO). This analysis is intended to provide researchers and practitioners real-time insights on one of North America’s and Europe’s leading drivers for extreme and persistent temperature patterns.
With transition to a fall/winter schedule, postings are once every week. Precipitation forecasts will be replaced by snow accumulation forecasts along with more emphasis on ice and snow boundary conditions and their influence on hemispheric weather.



Fun new blog by scientist working on a grant…….

https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1072232091717373952


Real time insights guys and the occasional girl :-D

We will know when that snow and SHTF.

I have to admit that I have been influenced by what I have seen on Twitter about the lack of winter, the lack of any winter weather in the forecast and that winter is likely over. I think that this simply does not acknowledge the times that we live, the present and changed climate and what recent past winters teach us about what to expect.

It is amazing but I have lived long enough where I feel that the climate between my youth and now is appreciably and visibly different. What I am about to say is of course overly simplistic but in my own mind one casualty of climate change is December as a winter month. I have been arguing for at least a decade now that the winter season is shifting ahead in time so that it starts later and ends later. The fall months are warming across the NH (with one notable exception in Siberia) and that warming extends into December. However surprisingly the next three months, January through March are cooling across the NH mid-latitudes. What is causing the asymmetry in early winter and late winter temperature trends? There is an observed increase poleward heat flux (the transport of heat across the latitudes towards the North Pole) in December that is likely contributing to a warming trend in December (though admittedly even in the absence of the trend we would still expect warmer December temperatures just based on an overall warming of the globe). But that increasing trend in December poleward heat transport is also resulting in more sudden stratospheric warmings and weaker stratospheric PV in January. The frequency of severe winter weather is increased following an SSW across the NH mid-latitudes including more Arctic outbreaks and heavy snowfalls. Therefore, temperatures are cooling for late winter starting in January and extending into March.

But what is contributing to greater poleward heat flux in December followed by SSWs in January. My answer has been at least partially the increasing trend in October Eurasian snow cover extent that favors a northwestward expansion of the Siberian high in November and December that is conducive to greater poleward heat flux in the months November and December. This argument was first made in Cohen et al. 2009 but further refined in subsequent papers.
One of those follow up papers that not only included observations but numerical model output is Furtado et al. 2015. For that paper I created two plots with the help of my former colleague and contributor to the blog Jason Furtado (now at University of Oklahoma) one showing the composite of poleward heat flux or vertical component of the wave activity flux (WAFz) and polar cap geopotential height anomalies (PCHs) for falls and winters with high October Eurasian snow cover minus low October Eurasian snow cover.

Also, the only region that is experiencing significant below normal sea ice extent is the Barents-Kara Seas. If the positive temperature anomalies remain confined to this region this is supportive of cold in Asia but not eastern North America (see for example Figure 10d from Cohen et al. 2018 and copied below in Figure iv). In fact, low sea ice in the Barents-Kara Seas favor warm temperatures in the Eastern US based on this plot alone. This is something to monitor through the remainder of the winter. The inconsistency between the stratospheric and tropospheric circulations could be forcing from the lack of Arctic sea ice focused in the Barents-Kara Seas.

Currently the stratospheric PV is elongated along an axis from Scandinavia to Quebec with ridging and accompanying warming centered over Eastern Siberia and Alaska (Figure 12). The upcoming pulse of WAFz is predicted to split the stratospheric PV into two sister vortices one over Northwest Russia with the other Quebec and New England while the continued warming wrapping in from Northern Asia is predicted to nudge the center of the ridging into the Arctic basin (Figure 12).

The predicted details of the stratospheric PV disruption are showing better consistency among the weather models. An MMW is highly likely as well as a PV split with one daughter vortex over Eurasia and a second over North America though there is still uncertainty with the amplitude and location of the two daughter vortices. Instead as I discussed in the Impacts section there still remains much uncertainty with the impacts of the stratospheric warming on the weather. Following the peak of the stratospheric warming, I would expect the warm/positive PCHS to “drip” down into the troposphere. On average this dripping takes about two weeks. A sudden stratospheric warming not only leads to a warm Arctic in the stratosphere but also at the surface as well. And a warmer Arctic favors more severe winter weather in the NH midlatitudes including the Eastern US. And as I argued in previous blogs a PV split would also favor cold longer term across Europe. The models struggle correctly resolving this pattern. Expect the models to struggle until the warm PCHs reach the tropopause.

Arctic sea ice growth rate continues at a slow rate and remains well below normal. However the negative sea ice anoamlies are now mostly confined to one region - the Barents-Kara Seas (Figure 13). Normal to above normal sea ice in and around Greenland and the Candian Archipelagos may favor a positve winter NAO. Based on recent research low sea ice anomalies in the Chukchi and Bering seas favors cold temperatures in central and eastern North America while low sea ice in the Barents-Kara seas favor cold temperatures in Central and East Asia, however this topic remains controversial. Recent research has shown that regional anomalies that are most highly correlated with the strength of the stratospheric PV are across the Barents-Kara seas region where low Arctic sea ice favors a weaker winter PV. However it is looking more and more like the the greatest negative anomalies are going to persist in the Barents-Kara Seas this winter and this may be the region most favored for ridging/blocking during the winter months. I expect that the forecasts of lower heights and colder temperatures near Alaska will continue to help sea ice grow in the Chukchi and Bering seas in the near term.



Interesting, a bit long and I have to catch up on the science, ridges, pressures and so on.
But surely ice cover/sea surface temperatures of the Northern Atlantic/Barentz and Kara sea's plays a key role.
The last defence of the arctic sea ice cover.
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Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 07 Jan 2019, 11:12:01

pstarr wrote:After a lifetime of environmental activism, self-destructive behavior and anti-social thoughts . . . I no longer believe AGW/ACC/GW/etc is real. It's a joke.


I fail to see how spending a lifetime in environmental activism leads one to AGW denial. Giving up, maybe, but not denial.

The middle-section, though, that would explain a lot.

Image

And beyond that, what's the point of telling us you think it's a joke? If you want to now push denialist kool-aid go volunteer for the Kock brothers and complete your transition to the dark-side.

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Re: After sea ice

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 07 Jan 2019, 20:15:49

Whitefang wrote:Adam,

Guy were wrong on the date, thank God, we are still here alive and well.


Indeed. How many more claims that make him look silly do you think he will make? He's got at least 2 to his credit already, one for peak oil, and then this last September. I believe his CYA for that one is that if not last September, then the current September.

Whitefang wrote:He thought that the sea ice would be gone by september, first BOE.


Sounds like he doesn't know any more about ice than he did peak oil when he was using it to declare the end of civilization.

Whitefang wrote:
That in turn would trigger collapse of (corn) harvest, consumer confidence down as well as markets, global dimming up in thin air, 3 degrees avarage temperature increase within weeks/months……..end of the world as we know it.
A very likely scenario, alike Paul B. on one of his 500 video's saying the same thing with methane/hydrates in the mix.


He once claimed peak oil doom was a likely scenario.. I'm thinking...you don't ask a run of the mill college prof about complex issues and expect much.

Whitefang wrote:I wish we still had a decade or so but it looks grim.


We didn't have a decade after peak oil hit either. 14 years ago now. I'm thinking....there are no facts about the future, and "looking grim" is no different than this being claimed to happen...it looked grim as well. And never happened.

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Re: Guy McPherson

Unread postby Revi » Tue 08 Jan 2019, 09:56:23

I think he's a lot like we were back in the day. We were predicting near term collapse of civilization due to a lack of fuel, and he's predicting a near term collapse in the climate system. We found out that the system can keep itself alive much longer than we thought. He will find the same. There are feedback loops that will keep us going for a while also. Gaia has a few tricks up her sleeve yet. We may not be doing so well, but the whole system is going to keep going. One of the scenarios, which is a hothouse world may be enough to cook off us pesky humans. I don't think all life will go at this stage of the game however. We still have another billion years before that happens. Read Lovelock's Ages of Gaia for an idea of the life cycles this planet has gone through. It's been hot before and very cold. The last 2.8 million years of ice ages were a way to cool the planet in the face of a sun that is putting the system into overheat mode. We are pushing it into the overheat, and now Gaia is going to warm the planet with a self cleaning oven cycle.

https://books.google.com/books?id=YWom2 ... over&hl=en
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Re: Guy McPherson

Unread postby Sys1 » Tue 08 Jan 2019, 16:23:54

It's not because Guy McPherson was wrong than doom future is not at the horizon.
He was a bit pessimistic but not by far.
By the way, the world can collapse as soon as tomorrow. All it needs is someone to launch several nuclear warheads on major towns which would trigger automatic military retaliation aka global thermonuclear apocalypse.
Back to the topic : It's impossible to predict when the world will collapse. Everyone who tried failed.
Just like this old story of the boy who cried wolf, people tend to think that as all those doom-mongers were wrong, the world will basically be fine forever.
Nevertheless, we can see since 2008 that :
1) Poverty is increasing everywhere
2) Debt is going exponential
3) Nationalism thematics and politics have more and more success on the planet
3) Since 2010, almost every year is hotter than the precedent with new global record temperatures , meaning global climate change is not linear. It is in my opinion the most important threat we have.
4) Climate refugees is not any more a theory, it's the reality of Europe and soon the one of the USA (if not already with the US/Mexican wall).
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Re: Guy McPherson

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 08 Jan 2019, 22:52:11

pstarr wrote:The wolves of Chernobyl


If you think it's so safe over there why don't you take a trip and go take a few pics inside the old melted down tower? Take Plant with you since he loves to fly.
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Re: Guy McPherson

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 09 Jan 2019, 03:07:22

pstarr wrote:Once again, science eludes you.


The point eludes you. If you're such a gambler at heart, put your money where your mouth is and go over there for a while. Revel in the "harmless" irradiated goodness and then check back with us. I mean, it's probably gonna be a far safer doomstead than the redwood curtain if you really think the radiation is safe.
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Re: Guy McPherson

Unread postby Revi » Sat 12 Jan 2019, 21:22:16

We are having a pretty typical winter so far in Maine, but I have heard that Detroit was yet to have a major snowfall earlier in the month. We are teetering on the edge of a climate catastrophe. Anyone who doesn't think so has their head so far up their butt they can't see anything.
The ocean is warming up quicker here than most places on the planet. I heard that 2018 may not have been the warmest air temperature wise, but the oceans are warmer than ever before. A new record! Oceans hold something like 80% of the warming we have produced so far. They warm up really slowly and take just as long to cool. Even with our normal cold winter this year the water temp in the gulf of Maine is still 3 degrees warmer than normal. I don't agree with Dr. McPherson on the near term extinction, but I can see that it's going to get nasty soon. Imaging a category 5 hurricane making it to NYC on the wings of much warmer water. See what I mean?
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Elite prepping

Unread postby Whitefang » Sun 13 Jan 2019, 15:28:22

I remember Guy saying that the elite knows and are prepping for the end of the world as we know it.

One of the best intervieuws of a former top employee of the top 8000:

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=du ... ORM=VDRVRV

oops, bing video, Maybe YouTube works better, Anyway...Ronald Bernard.

Story about a US general with a lighter in a dark room....one light can enlight, truly enlighten, light up the darkness for those that live their lives in boredom/habit, without magic, eyes accustomed to the dark.
So thank you Bernard for sharing this and not giving in to those that do terrible things.
Child sacrifice for them is a way to bind people, he said no, he refused and they let him go after some torture.
He died and came back in a hospital after his body crashed, found out that he is more than his body.
That is his reward after surviving his ordeal.
Darkness has no way to get us if we refuse it, we might wake up to the real world.
We humans have so much power and options that we do not use, such a bummer.

Eyes wide shut, a docudrama from Kubrick?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eyes_Wide_Shut

I do not mind people doing the sex/dope/party thing, all ok with me.
If they are wiping out traces banksters, they must be convinced the end of the global economy, free markets has come.
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Re: Guy McPherson

Unread postby Revi » Sun 13 Jan 2019, 16:37:23

I don't know about what Guy is talking about, but I have a friend, who I met when I was showing my film, Peak Oil: A Love Story. He was one of the few who showed up. He showed up because of the title. He does earthwork in Western Maine and one day he asked a client who is a big oil guy why he was clearing up an old intervale farm. He replied that he wants to have a place to bug out to when it gets nasty. I guess the idea is that it's close to the Canadian border, and it's an isolated farmstead, surrounded by mountains for when it gets nasty. And he wasn't his only cusomer who was preparing a bug out spot.
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Re: Guy McPherson

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Sun 13 Jan 2019, 23:54:10

We are teetering on the edge of a climate catastrophe. Anyone who doesn't think so has their head so far up their butt they can't see anything.


:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: +1
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The level of injustice and wrong you endure is directly determined by how much you quietly submit to. Even to the point of extinction.
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Arctic Warm Wedge

Unread postby Whitefang » Fri 18 Jan 2019, 16:39:00

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 364,71.744

Heat is beyond the end of the world, Yamal peninsula and Wrangell Island, both still freezing but only around minus 10 degrees Celcius. I think the firework really starts when the warmth from the pacific meets the heat from the Atlantic.

https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2 ... R2_nic.png

On the positive side, Kara sea looks fine, Spitsbergen East is frozen, we might still be ok for the next 2 or 3 years.
Even Holland is freezing, looking forward to snow on the Belgian Ardennes to test my winter gear.

Guy thinks we will be falling into the abrupt CC abyss when the polar vortex is history, I agree with him, was it Richard Abbey that told us a 10 degree temperature increase a year is possible? After a phase change, from ice to water, solid Vortex and atmosphere to a chaotic dynamic system, fluid as can be.
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Re: Guy McPherson

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 23 Jan 2019, 15:45:20

One of the linchpins of Guy's thesis is that the cooling effect of aerosols is more like 2 degrees C or higher, rather than the .5 degrees that has become the more recent consensus. But he may, sadly turn out to be closer to right on this point afterall:


https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2 ... 104611.htm

"New research shows that the degree to which aerosols cool the earth has been grossly underestimated, necessitating a recalculation of climate change models to more accurately predict the pace of global warming."
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Re: Guy McPherson

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 23 Jan 2019, 17:29:27

dohboi wrote:One of the linchpins of Guy's thesis is that the cooling effect of aerosols is more like 2 degrees C or higher, rather than the .5 degrees that has become the more recent consensus. But he may, sadly turn out to be closer to right on this point afterall:


https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2 ... 104611.htm

"New research shows that the degree to which aerosols cool the earth has been grossly underestimated, necessitating a recalculation of climate change models to more accurately predict the pace of global warming."


Yup. I saw that too.

Guy seems to have a very good understanding of the way things work in the climate system, even if he's not a climate scientist himself.

The implication of this all is very important. If aerosols from diesel and coal use are actually COOLING the planet, then closing coal plants and switching to EVS and getting carbon out of the system would quickly reduce the number of aerosols in the atmosphere, producing an almost immediate INCREASE in global temperature of 1-2°C.

Now we can't keep pumping out CO2 into the atmosphere, and we can't stop doing things that pump out CO2 into the atmosphere.

Image
Its like Catch-22, but on a global scale.

Cheers!
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