Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Guy McPherson Pt. 1

Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 19 Oct 2016, 19:11:36

Well put, dis!
User avatar
dohboi
Harmless Drudge
Harmless Drudge
 
Posts: 18445
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 03:00:00

Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby careinke » Wed 19 Oct 2016, 20:53:49

KaiserJeep wrote:Why do I bother to even talk, I wonder? Read the message directly above yours. The climate changes all the time, and is in a 15,000 year warming trend, since the Ice Age. Not only does that not prove the AGW theory, it's completely normal, and evidence of warming is not evidence of AGW.


Why do I even write, did I say AGW?
Cliff (Start a rEVOLution, grow a garden)
User avatar
careinke
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3645
Joined: Mon 01 Jan 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Pacific Northwest

Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby Revi » Fri 21 Oct 2016, 07:39:12

I think Kaiser is the smartest denier I have ever encountered. I agree that at 350 ppm we were within the boundaries of natural fluctuation, but we are at over 400 now, and there's no end in sight. The only thing that might save us is peak oil. Maybe it will keep us from burning the planet up. Maybe...
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
User avatar
Revi
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 7249
Joined: Mon 25 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: Maine

Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Fri 21 Oct 2016, 11:39:19

Amazingly, pstarr we agree upon that much, resource depletions are increasingly apparent in all walks of life. What happens next is the question. Unfortunately, for most of the 7.4+ billions of humans, cheap FF's have enabled a huge population increase. I think the Third World is now the most vulnerable to shortages of energy and materials, as they are already resting on the razor's edge of living/dying. The developed nations will still have plenty of hardships, but much lower casualties. In the USA they claim that 40% of our food is wasted - enough to feed another 150,000,000 people. A safety margin, if you will.
KaiserJeep 2.0, Neural Subnode 0010 0000 0001 0110 - 1001 0011 0011, Tertiary Adjunct to Unimatrix 0000 0000 0001

Resistance is Futile, YOU will be Assimilated.

Warning: Messages timestamped before April 1, 2016, 06:00 PST were posted by the unmodified human KaiserJeep 1.0
KaiserJeep
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 6094
Joined: Tue 06 Aug 2013, 16:16:32
Location: Wisconsin's Dreamland

Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby ralfy » Fri 21 Oct 2016, 13:12:39

Just the fact that he confuses CC with AGW shows that my decision to put him in my ignore list makes a lot of sense.
http://sites.google.com/site/peakoilreports/
User avatar
ralfy
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 4974
Joined: Sat 28 Mar 2009, 10:36:38
Location: The Wasteland

Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby jedrider » Fri 21 Oct 2016, 14:27:36

ralfy wrote:Just the fact that he confuses CC with AGW shows that my decision to put him in my ignore list makes a lot of sense.


I agree with the ignore list. However, it seems we are dealing with ACC (Abrupt Climate Change). This sends the chills down my back, that within a decade, a huge increase in temperatures can really devastate our living arrangement, not to mention our food supply and our forests.
User avatar
jedrider
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1459
Joined: Thu 28 May 2009, 09:10:44

Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Fri 21 Oct 2016, 14:36:26

ralfy wrote:Just the fact that he confuses CC with AGW shows that my decision to put him in my ignore list makes a lot of sense.


I never said that. I said that climate is constantly changing, and never static. AGW is an untested hypothesis.
KaiserJeep 2.0, Neural Subnode 0010 0000 0001 0110 - 1001 0011 0011, Tertiary Adjunct to Unimatrix 0000 0000 0001

Resistance is Futile, YOU will be Assimilated.

Warning: Messages timestamped before April 1, 2016, 06:00 PST were posted by the unmodified human KaiserJeep 1.0
KaiserJeep
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 6094
Joined: Tue 06 Aug 2013, 16:16:32
Location: Wisconsin's Dreamland

Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 21 Oct 2016, 14:40:18

The long, long paleo-record, for one thing, provides a vast testing ground for GW theory, and it confirms it at every turn.

But of course kj's whole position is total bs. Using the same argument, we would have to dismiss as mere 'hypothesis' pretty much everything we know about evolution and astrophysics, to name just two that come to mind.
User avatar
dohboi
Harmless Drudge
Harmless Drudge
 
Posts: 18445
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 03:00:00

Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 21 Oct 2016, 15:17:59

"It is irrational for KJ to ignore/deny anthropogenic climate change. Human greenhouse gas release is a real"

Thanks for that.

We will see how things play out.

Timing is always hard to predict.

We know that resource limits and consequences of GW will become more and more problematic to more and more people going forward. Probably it will depend on which one hits you as to which one you will conclude is the bigger problem.
User avatar
dohboi
Harmless Drudge
Harmless Drudge
 
Posts: 18445
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 03:00:00

Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby Revi » Thu 27 Oct 2016, 08:23:12

I think we are dealing with a "triple crisis" to borrow a phrase from John Howe. He put it succinctly that we are hitting peak oil, peak people and a peak in climate forcing all at around the same time. I agree with him that we needed to do some rationing and we might have been able to transition much easier. Unfortunately we have squandered the resources and are now going to have to pay the piper. 400 ppm is very unusual. It hasn't happened in something like 3.5 million years. We are going to see consequences. Humans weren't around the last time we were at this level.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o4w2KPQEHys
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
User avatar
Revi
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 7249
Joined: Mon 25 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: Maine

Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 27 Oct 2016, 08:26:30

We may be near the peak in climate forcing (or not), but we are nowhere near the point of greatest impact of that forcing.
User avatar
dohboi
Harmless Drudge
Harmless Drudge
 
Posts: 18445
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 03:00:00

Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 27 Oct 2016, 08:40:09

dohboi wrote:We may be near the peak in climate forcing (or not), but we are nowhere near the point of greatest impact of that forcing.


Climate forcing will continue to increase as long as CO2 and CH4 continue to build up in the atmosphere. Currently CO2 is going up ca. 3.5 ppm per year
hall of shame
People who buy new cars and then cry crocodile tears over climate change. The manufacture of a typical new car emits ca. 16 tons of CO2 and a new EV is actually much worse since the battery also has to be manufactured, resulting in a total carbon footprint of ca. 30 tons of CO2
User avatar
Plantagenet
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 22657
Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 02:00:00
Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).

Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby jedrider » Thu 27 Oct 2016, 15:10:05

It's clear that it's going to happen in the life time of some of us. It's clear that it is going to be severe. Maybe, it should be clear that we have only 13 years of normalcy left. Does that make me an optimist? That's a good timeline even though for many of us that is NOT going to change anything we do significantly. That long-term life insurance policy could be debatable cause I doubt you'll be able to collect. It could be that as a society we start pulling apart at the seams. Yes, multiple concurrent shocks to the system will surely bring us a lot of social chaos. We are back to where we were 10 years ago, determining how to survive a crumbling society when it happens. Right now, my society is on a building spurt in silicon valley. Chinese money will be invested in silicon valley until we are flooded out. What other choice would there be?
User avatar
jedrider
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1459
Joined: Thu 28 May 2009, 09:10:44

Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 27 Oct 2016, 15:31:57

"Climate forcing will continue to increase as long as CO2 and CH4 continue to build up in the atmosphere. Currently CO2 is going up ca. 3.5 ppm per year"

Good point. I guess I meant that, if crash comes soon, we will likely see a diminution in the amount of new CO2 and methane introduced into the system. Though of course ANY increase in CO2 and other ghg emissions will increase forcing.

But:

1) it takes some decades for the majority of the forcing to be felt, so we are just beginning to feel something like the full effects of the heating from the CO2 emitted toward the end of the last century (and before).

2) Some carbon cycle feed backs seem to have already kicked in, so it is pretty certain that effects from these feedbacks will continue to heat the planet for a number of centuries at least, even if we ceased all further ghg emissions now.
User avatar
dohboi
Harmless Drudge
Harmless Drudge
 
Posts: 18445
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 03:00:00

Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby litesong » Thu 27 Oct 2016, 16:41:34

KaiserJeep wrote: In the USA they claim that 40% of our food is wasted - enough to feed another 150,000,000 people. A safety margin, if you will.


B-b--but-but-but what about my potato chips. I know... I know. The ice cream & the frozen meat will be gone because the refrigerator won't run & the chocolate candy will melt because there ain't gonna be no more A/C. We don't have enough property to grow more 'an about a month's worth of tomatoes & string beans. B-b--but-but-but what about my potato chips.
litesong
permanently banned
 
Posts: 270
Joined: Fri 31 Jul 2009, 10:15:52

Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby ritter » Thu 27 Oct 2016, 18:24:36

dohboi wrote: I guess I meant that, if crash comes soon, we will likely see a diminution in the amount of new CO2 and methane introduced into the system. Though of course ANY increase in CO2 and other ghg emissions will increase forcing.


Unfortunately, if things crash, I think there is an equal chance we revert to burning the cheapest, dirtiest fuels we can grub out of the ground.
ritter
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 858
Joined: Fri 14 Oct 2005, 02:00:00

Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby jedrider » Thu 27 Oct 2016, 18:49:49

litesong wrote:
KaiserJeep wrote: In the USA they claim that 40% of our food is wasted - enough to feed another 150,000,000 people. A safety margin, if you will.


B-b--but-but-but what about my potato chips. I know... I know. The ice cream & the frozen meat will be gone because the refrigerator won't run & the chocolate candy will melt because there ain't gonna be no more A/C. We don't have enough property to grow more 'an about a month's worth of tomatoes & string beans. B-b--but-but-but what about my potato chips.


When the plentiful food system breaks down then that is the end of the age of optimism, for certain. That will keel over the whole financial edifice. We won't become a nation of vegetarians willingly! Probably about 40% of the nations agriculture is at risk between drought and floods just by extrapolating what we are already experiencing. Then, what about this 'abrupt' climate change: What does that do?

Anyway, the fact that we actually do indeed have a world wide network of food distribution means that SOME places will be able to increase their harvests, such as currently, the EU and Russia. Doesn't 'abrupt climate change' break that, too? Cold places become warm (good) and then, too hot (bad).
User avatar
jedrider
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1459
Joined: Thu 28 May 2009, 09:10:44

Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby litesong » Fri 28 Oct 2016, 01:47:50

jedrider wrote:When the plentiful food system breaks down then that is the end......


The only food that provides more calories than calories it takes to produce is the potato. Not sure what that means. It may mean that potatoes may be the only food to be mass produced & able to be delivered to people economically. Other food may have to be produced locally...very locally. No strawberries in the winter. Best strawberries (& ears of corn) are produced in Washington state.....best boysenberries, too. Best huckleberries & blueberries are above 4000 feet in the Washington Cascade mountains.
litesong
permanently banned
 
Posts: 270
Joined: Fri 31 Jul 2009, 10:15:52

Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby careinke » Fri 28 Oct 2016, 01:50:15

ritter wrote:
dohboi wrote: I guess I meant that, if crash comes soon, we will likely see a diminution in the amount of new CO2 and methane introduced into the system. Though of course ANY increase in CO2 and other ghg emissions will increase forcing.


Unfortunately, if things crash, I think there is an equal chance we revert to burning the cheapest, dirtiest fuels we can grub out of the ground.


I will be using renewable biomass, sequestering carbon, and improving the soil at the same time. :)
Cliff (Start a rEVOLution, grow a garden)
User avatar
careinke
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3645
Joined: Mon 01 Jan 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Pacific Northwest

Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby careinke » Fri 28 Oct 2016, 01:56:54

litesong wrote:
jedrider wrote:When the plentiful food system breaks down then that is the end......


The only food that provides more calories than calories it takes to produce is the potato. Not sure what that means. It may mean that potatoes may be the only food to be mass produced & able to be delivered to people economically. Other food may have to be produced locally...very locally. No strawberries in the winter. Best strawberries (& ears of corn) are produced in Washington state.....best boysenberries, too. Best huckleberries & blueberries are above 4000 feet in the Washington Cascade mountains.


The vast majority of food produced needs to be produced locally in order to have any chance of being sustainable, much less regenerative. We are closer than you think, I believe around 80% of the food today is produced and consumed "locally."
Cliff (Start a rEVOLution, grow a garden)
User avatar
careinke
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3645
Joined: Mon 01 Jan 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Pacific Northwest

PreviousNext

Return to Environment, Weather & Climate

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google Adsense [Bot] and 4 guests