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Guy McPherson Pt. 1

Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Mon 17 Oct 2016, 21:38:01

Interesting. It is integrity that prevents me from joining the groupthink about AGW.
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Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 17 Oct 2016, 21:57:46

Ibon "...blah, blah, blah uncivil blah blah blah..."

I have no intention to be 'civil' toward people who regularly spread lies about the most important truths of our times.

If Tanada, in the CO2 thread, constantly gave erroneous data, I would be savaging him. But he doesn't, so I don't.

If someone came on here and said that the holocaust never happened, or that large quantities of cyanide were good for you, I would similarly dress them down in no uncertain terms.

But Ibon, apparently, would be most gracious, courteous and 'civil' to such scum.

My hats off to your high-minded chivalry, Ibon.

I prefer streetfighting, myself, when dealing with fascists. But each to his/her own.
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Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby Ibon » Mon 17 Oct 2016, 22:07:01

dohboi wrote:Ibon "...blah, blah, blah uncivil blah blah blah..."

I have no intention to be 'civil' toward people who regularly spread lies about the most important truths of our times.

If Tanada, in the CO2 thread, constantly gave erroneous data, I would be savaging him. But he doesn't, so I don't.

If someone came on here and said that the holocaust never happened, or that large quantities of cyanide were good for you, I would similarly dress them down in no uncertain terms.

But Ibon, apparently, would be most gracious, courteous and 'civil' to such scum.

My hats off to your high-minded chivalry, Ibon.

I prefer streetfighting, myself, when dealing with fascists. But each to his/her own.


What is your ultimate goal, to change minds or to be right?
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Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby GHung » Mon 17 Oct 2016, 22:09:57

KaiserJeep wrote:Interesting. It is integrity that prevents me from joining the groupthink about AGW.


A lot of people refuse to join the 'groupthink' about the planet being more than a few thousand years old. They hold tight to their 'integrity', but at least they aren't risking the futures of their grandchildren so much.

You said, above; "I finally appear to have communicated to some PO.com members that the state of the art in computer simulation - hardware and software both - are inadequate to model global climate."

Maybe so, KJ. You always seem to run home to your momma specialty as if that virtual view of things gives us an accurate picture of what's happening. We generalists view the world, and climate change, through a wide-angle lens, and, all things considered, I think we have a big problem either way. It doesn't take a computer model or advanced mathematics to observe the general trend of things, and it doesn't take a rocket scientist to determine that humans can't keep consuming at current rates and dumping their wastes wherever it's convenient and economical. We're way past that point, and some major consequences are baked in. Extinction event? Maybe not. Civilization-ending process? Almost assuredly. Climate change is only one of the consequences of centuries of bad behavior; behavior which isn't changing much at all.
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Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby Ibon » Mon 17 Oct 2016, 22:39:06

dohboi wrote:I have no intention to be 'civil' toward people who regularly spread lies about the most important truths of our times.


Gotta come back to this comment. What are the most important truths of our time? The facts or the values?

You see, KJ is frugal, abhors shopping and consumption culture, focuses on reducing his energy consumption. His values represent a truth that if spread to those 95% chasing Walmart discounts would certainly have a greater impact than arguing over the factuality of climate change.

You claim he spreads lies and yet his values speak volumes of addressing the dysfunction.

He is an ally and you spit in his face. Why? Over the truth of climate change? Whose truth? What does that truth really do to change values? The very values that KJ practices that accurately point out that industrial civilization could function using 15% of current fossil fuel use.

Hey Onlooker, keep following this, we are delving into the source of polarity and divisiveness here. Ask yourself to what degree this has an impact on the interpretation of data ?
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Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Tue 18 Oct 2016, 03:48:15

Before becoming the sixteenth president of the United States, Abraham Lincoln, whose integrity is legendary, made a speech against the advice of friends. Largely because of that speech, he lost the 1858 election to the Senate. But he said, "If it is decreed that I go down because of this speech, then let me go down linked to the truth."

We all admire men and women of conviction. We have an innate and inescapable awareness that we should stand for some things no matter what they cost. To cover our own inner poverty, though, we often scornfully laugh at those who risk much for the sake of a cause or their integrity.

But conviction is essential to faithful living, character building, sanctification, loyalty, integrity and faithfulness to God. Whether we compromise and sin is directly tied to the strength of our convictions.

Strength of conviction in the day-by-day things is the very exercise that determines whether we will have the convictions necessary when all may truly be on the line.

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Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Tue 18 Oct 2016, 04:50:50

One thing that I must point out is that few if any of you, "know" about climate change, AGW, whatever you call it.

You have Faith in the priests in white lab coats, who are preaching the gospel of AGW, and calling carbon dioxide the devil. You have not personally cranked through a climate model, you actually don't know from any observations or calculations or anything else that CC and AGW are real. Even though the whole house of cards is based upon computer climate models, which I have told you are wholly inadequate tools, you are still denying what I have said, as if I were the devil, or at least his prophet. Even though the concepts of religion are something that you have excised from your lives, you are blind to the fact that you have nothing but Faith in white-coated priests who are making a living telling tales of Doom, no different from the old, sincere, and ever-so-earnest TV evangelists one sees in the wee hours of the morning, preaching the End of Days and quoting Revelations from an open Bible.

I think that many of these scientists are sincere in their beliefs, and feel they are justified in attempting to strike fear in their disciples, just as I think many of you are sincere, although I also believe there is no basis for your beliefs. I understand the greenhouse effect, I have known the truth of it since 7th grade, when we used heat lamps and carbon dioxide gas, water vapor, and noble gases, all in bell jars with precision lab thermometers. I understand also that because the greenhouse effect is real, does not mean that you can get valid results from inadequate mathematical models, using incomplete and inaccurate data, and analysis based on flawed theories.

I don't typically debate climate topics anymore for two reasons. First, I recognized that science occupies that spot in your psyche were evolution placed religion, and religion resided for 99% of the time elapsed since one particular ape species left the African plains. It is simply not a genteel thing to do to attack someone's religion, even when they are doubly blind and would deny that they have any religion, because they believe in Science. Secondly, I have moved beyond this useless debate, because I understand too well what most of you do not - it is entirely a moot point whether AGW and CC is real. We occupy this planet in our billions because of cheap fossil energy, and it really doesn't matter one tiny bit whether we are warming the place faster than would happen if we were still limited by the same lack of intelligence that stifles the other primate species.

The apocalyptic doom I do believe in is FF exhaustion. I fear that we will not find alternative energies to use to enrich our lives, that we will blindly go on burning ancient hydrocarbons from under the Earth until we abruptly (at least on a species-centric time scale) run out of accessible cheap energy. Until then, we need to go on burning FF's, pumping oil, digging coal, and spewing carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, because it is not only the most reasonable thing to do, it's the only viable plan, in a scenario where (I really believe) there are possibly 100,000 people out of 7.4+ billion who even acknowledge that there are are issues here - be they climate change, global warming, or FF exhaustion. Because for 99% of the human race, these topics get dismissed out of hand. The 100,000 or so of us that really understand better are mostly having a useless debate about carbon dioxide, because most of you would rather do that then face the grim knowledge that the vast majority of humans will go to their graves, taking us along with them. You understand that our protests have the same net impact as the shrill screams of the thousands of bacteria in a toilet bowl, as you poured in the bowl cleaner.

You didn't listen to them, either. But you can be secure in your moral superiority, because you knew what was gonna happen before it actually did. Now all that remains is to wait for the flush. You understand that, too, don't you?
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Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 18 Oct 2016, 06:13:23

Someone who spreads dangerous lies is not an ally of any sort.

And I've already changed plenty of minds. The ones left are beyond reach. So all that's left for them is ignoring them, or ridicule when they make themselves unadorably unignorable.

I note that KJ is blathering on again, without once addressing any of the points I've made.

Seems to accept that 'the greenhouse effect is real' but can't seem to rub two neurons together long enough to see that burning enough ff to inject over 40 billion tons of CO2 into the atmosphere every year (more like 50 billion when you include CO2 equivalents) has increased that greenhouse gas, with the stunningly obvious result that the greenhouse effect has indeed kicked in and, as kc just pointed out in another thread, the globe will be about 1.3 degrees C warmer than pre-industrial times.

No models are needed or used to come to these conclusions.

But all he can talk about is 'models, models, models...' (as in: " the whole house of cards is based upon computer climate models" lie, lie, and lie...and I haven't even begun to point out that, besides very basic physics, there is also tons and tons and tons of paleo-data that also, again and again, stunningly confirm what is already obvious from the basic physics--CO2 is a GHG and, as such, has a major influence on global climate, increasing temps somewhere between 3 and 6 degrees C with each doubling. And this time we are the ones increasing those CO2 levels and the planetary temperature. Somehow or other, Arrhenius figured that out exactly 120 years ago without computers or models, but people stuck in their own narrowness here can't seem to think their way out of a paper bag of their own making to see the stunningly obvious truth. Yet they call those with the actual science, and the actual scientific community, behind them the ones going on faith. It's really just total BS, and if others can't see it as such, I will try not to go too far out of my way to further enlighten them.)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Svante_Arrhenius

And again, by denying the very basic physics behind GW, and the enormous mass of paleo-studies that confirm it, KJ and other denialist have to say that every single major established scientific body on the planet independently somehow got this wrong, but their relatively untrained individual WAGs somehow have it right...it would be just completely laughably pathetic if the stakes weren't so high.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientifi ... ate_change

"The scientific consensus is that the Earth's climate system is unequivocally warming, and ... is predominantly caused by humans.

No scientific body of national or international standing maintains a formal opinion dissenting from any of these main points. "

Not much use caviling more with one so locked into his own delusions that he can't even contemplate reality.
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Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 18 Oct 2016, 06:41:36

KaiserJeep wrote:.....you have nothing but Faith in white-coated priests who are making a living telling tales of Doom, no different from the old, sincere, and ever-so-earnest TV evangelists one sees in the wee hours of the morning, preaching the End of Days and quoting Revelations from an open Bible.

...science occupies that spot in your psyche were evolution placed religion...


First I must compliment you on your writing, KJ. It's sheer poetry and impressively erudite and fun to read at the same time.

However, your odd belief that religion and science are at all the same shows a fundamental lack of rationality and an ignorance of the rationale behind the scientific approach to the world.

Religion is based on faith. Science is based on the scientific method and on empirical facts. These are very different world views.

Your suggestion that scientists are liars and pseudo-religious charlatans is wrong headed and absurd.

Cheers!
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Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 18 Oct 2016, 07:29:51

Nicely put, P (as usual).
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Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby Ibon » Tue 18 Oct 2016, 08:15:31

dohboi wrote:Not much use caviling more with one so locked into his own delusions that he can't even contemplate reality.


And yet as he himself states he is one of the 100,000 or so that understand that fossil fuel consumption and human overshoot are taking us to the brink of collapse for a lack of an alternative energy and cultural paradigm. More importantly he practices a lifestyle with a minimum carbon footprint. There is not really any computer model required to debate this. So Dohboi, you are actually banging your head against the wall arguing with someone who understands the origins of what are actually causing AGW. The fact that he denies the science or is skeptical to the degree that humans are influencing climate change is disturbing you when he embraces the major solution to deal with it which is reduced consumption.

Remember Dick Cheney, before the Rio conference on climate change, when he summed up so well climate change deniers? That the American lifestyle would not be questioned as it relates to climate change? This is obviously not the source of KJ's denial? His lifestyle says otherwise.

Are we willing to pull back the veil here? KJ's views are skewed in reference to AGW because he was exposed to the toxic sanctimonious arrogance of progressives out there in California for decades that poisoned his ability to separate the science from the religious zealotry that environmental activists layered on top of the underlying science. His last post addresses this. He throws the baby out with the bathwater though by claiming that AGW is not proven. His inability to embrace AGW is directly related to his inability to accept the cultural baggage that is associated with this. Remember, he is well educated, recognizes human overshoot, recognizes the role FF plays in this, understands the consequences upcoming, and yet still denies the science of AGW. Curious huh? He is not really fighting the science and I am sure he will argue vehemently against me on this. He is fighting a cultural war of sorts.

And so are you and Cid, equally. Binary stars orbiting each other, page after page of posts that have nothing to do with the science and everything to do with defending a decades old narrative of speaking to truth as warriors against the system and corporations that have lead us to the abyss. The science is secondary to this cultural war. The science is presented as a mascot in this cultural war instead of standing on its own merit. As long as this marriage of zealotry and science stays firm we will not be able to move this subject toward consensus in the greater culture. Dohboi, you are equally incapable of separating this as KJ is. You both fail the test of objectivity in this regard.

Consequences will eventually act as a sledgehammer to trump these cultural inhibitors that keep us divided.

I believe in AGW. I do not need any more evidence that humans are influencing our climate. I am very ambiguous about the severity of the consequences but I am pretty sure the outcome will crush the narratives that currently frame the arguments on both side of this interesting debate we are having here.

I surrender this debate over to the physical realities unfolding as each year brings us closer to consequences that will be far more effective at influencing this debate and changing minds than the way we see the cyber wienies being flashed around on these pages :)
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Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby Ibon » Tue 18 Oct 2016, 08:17:35

dohboi wrote:Nicely put, P (as usual).


I agree. KJ, you have to take a big breath and consider this.
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Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby Ibon » Tue 18 Oct 2016, 08:25:40

Plantagenet wrote:
Your suggestion that scientists are liars and pseudo-religious charlatans is wrong headed and absurd.

Cheers!


Science is science, zealotry in the interpretation of this science is what KJ should be addressing instead of the science. He believes that this zealotry is motivating climate change scientists. I disagree with this. Climate scientists are not here on this message board. Most of the ones I have met are not tainted by this zealotry although the activists on the other hand stink of it. This has got KJ all bent out of shape even though he will certainly provide us with another interesting post to read disputing this :)
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Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby ralfy » Tue 18 Oct 2016, 10:25:21

One of the inevitable responses to both global warming and peak oil is a decrease in resource and energy use. If one does the latter in any case, then denial of either is a waste of time.
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Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby jedrider » Tue 18 Oct 2016, 12:00:12

We tolerate KJ because of his eloquence. But, it is mostly BS (Bull Shit). It's like a refrain in the background to give in to our instinct and ignore this existential threat and try to justify that feeling. But then you catch yourself that logically it cannot be argued away, and it is almost painful to realize that. Some of us look away, but some of us stare at it, unable to unfix our gaze. :)
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Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Tue 18 Oct 2016, 13:40:22

Your musings here are humorous for me, but not especially instructive. I am not a Democrat, a Republican, a Libertarian, an Independant, nor anything you would likely recognize. I see politics as high comedy, tempered with moments of drama and even tragedy when warfare replaces words. I speak both of verbal warfare and real warfare, the clash of ideas and of armies.

"Liberalism is Faith in Intelligence." - Professor Sidney Hook

The dig, despite its humorous intent, explains why liberalism's commitment to rationality has never precluded an exuberant irrationalism of its own: To the extent that modern liberalism has replaced reason with faith as its foundation, its faith in reason is unreasonable. Assured that all human wrongheadedness and intransigence can be cured by education, and that the social expressions of these undesirable qualities signify "problems" to be solved by political action, liberals envision politics as "simply education generalized" and the end of politics as social perfection (entailing, as Michael Oakeshott noted, social uniformity). Yet the human record demonstrates that human beings, individually and collectively, are not perfectible: also, that every attempt to prove experience wrong has had highly unpleasant effects. For liberals, the fact of human imperfectibility would be tragic--if liberal ideology were inclined to understand history as tragedy, which it isn't. The excessive rationalism of liberalism, moreover, commits it paradoxically to a relativistic theory of truth which holds that no objective truth exists-and that, if it does, we could never prove that objective truth was, in fact, what we had hold of. This reasoning amounts to a form of anti-intellectualism that is wholly unexpected from the premier intellectual tradition of modern intellectualism. - James Burnam, Suicide of the West: An Essay on the Meaning and Destiny of Liberalism, 1964


I am the anathema of liberal thinking, a considered realist and a conservative. I used a simple mathematical tool that undergraduate engineers were taught in the late 1970's, and discovered that today's state-of-the-art computers do not have the capacity to simulate global climate. I do not suggest that thousands of climate scientists are wrong, or that they are being deceptive. I note only that they missed a vital first step when they blindly attempted to create climate simulations - most probably because it is no longer necessary to perform this step in almost all computer simulations, and almost certainly the tool assessment is no longer necessary for the vast majority of such computer models. I would guess that those branches of science and those scientists who simply regard computers as tools were never even taught tool assessment.

There are other arenas and computer applications where our current digital tools are proving inadequate. Remember the delicate tracery of the multiple intertwined rings of Neptune, photographed by Voyager:
Image
...we don't have computers that can model this amazing bit of orbital mechanics. The speculation is that the complex gravitational interaction of the planet, the moons of the planet, the ring material itself, and the oh-so-tenuous tenuous solar wind at that great distance are all combining to twist streamers of dust, but without a mathematical model of this behavior, it all remains speculation.

The present state of education and indeed the general level of education within the US populace is deplorable. Somehow we've swallowed whole the myth that you can be a well-rounded, educated person without knowing any science and mathematics whatever; but engineering and science majors are automatically uncultured boors, hardly fit for polite society.

We have a Council of Economic Advisors, and we debate economic policy, and everyone listens as these soothsayers pontificate about monetary policy; and meanwhile the president's Science Advisor is a low-ranking White House official, there is no Engineering Advisory Council, and there is no cabinet-level post held by an engineer. More than a majority of the seats in every major legislature in the land is held by lawyers, but there are about two engineers in Congress, and no cabinet-level post held by an engineer or scientist.

Now go again to your typical university. Find an engineering students and a social science student. I'll bet you anything you like that the engineer will have read about as much history and literature and genuine liberal arts as the social scientist; while the social scientist will know nothing of engineering and physics, little of biology, and no mathematics. He may protest that he "took stat"; which will mean that he knows how to do cookbook calculations to produce the mean, median, and mode of a bunch of numbers. Given a little help he may also be able to compute the standard deviation; and with a textbook and a bit of luck he might even be able to do a "T" test, although the odds are that he won't have the foggiest notion of what the T test assumes. (An amusing aside, the "T" test was developed by a practicing engineer as a means of sampling and monitoring the quality of stout at the Guinness brewery.)

Go now to a rally protesting a nuclear power plant. There'll be a lot of students here. How many will be engineers? And how many will be social scientists? Of the social scientists, how many will understand anything of nuclear physics? How many will know the difference between ionizing and non-ionizing radiation? Why are they screaming "millions of dead"?

I am a retired engineer, who still publishes works in his other great passion, which is History. I am an observer of human behaviors in all their delicious complexity, and I still dabble in Astronomy and Philosophy. My other minor at University was Economics, which I no longer indulge in, having decided that was one of the Voodoo sciences.

Now I have to go mark up my absentee ballot. I'm voting for Trump, based on the belief that our political system needs a large dose of purgative.
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Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby Hawkcreek » Tue 18 Oct 2016, 13:53:20

KaiserJeep wrote:I am a retired engineer, who still publishes works in his other great passion, which is History. I am an observer of human behaviors in all their delicious complexity, and I still dabble in Astronomy and Philosophy. My other minor at University was Economics, which I no longer indulge in, having decided that was one of the Voodoo sciences.


TMI, really, but I understand that your credentials are important to you.
I've worked with a lot of engineers, who all felt the same.
I do believe that engineering is a great skill set, though. Couldn't have all these electronic doodads without it.
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Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby jedrider » Tue 18 Oct 2016, 14:09:22

Your POINT, KJ? Nice writing, as if you can dilute reality by throwing a bunch of words at it!
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Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Tue 18 Oct 2016, 14:58:52

The short version:

My point would be that the majority (presently 94%) consensus of IPCC member climatologists is based upon multiple flawed analyses of climate, caused by using inadequate computer simulations.

I'm not saying that the 94% are wrong, nor am I saying that the 6% minority of professional climatologists who look at the climate model results and dispute the AGW consensus are right. All I am saying is that our hardware and software tools are two orders of magnitude from being adequate to make valid climate simulations, and that no policy decisions should be based upon such flawed climate models. This in spite of the fact that in the 195 member nations of the IPCC, multiple politicians have incorporated AGW planks in their political platforms for the purpose of vote pandering.

Then I'm noting that most of you couldn't tell on your own whether the globe is warming or not. In fact, indisputable evidence based on the Milankovitch cycles says that overall we are in a 15,000 year warming trend, and that this trend (caused by the Earth's orbital cycle) dominates all others. Secondary effects exist, the warming ebbs and wanes, and is anything but a constant, even trend. For example, most of you have insisted that the Earth-facing satellite data that says that we are in an 18-year cooling trend that should bottom out around 2020, must be wrong - although Physics says that the satellite temperature measurements of an entire global hemisphere should be the most accurate data we have. But, you scream shrilly, the ice is melting...and it never occurs to you that large tropical waters that relinquish a fraction of one degree's worth of heat can cause a temperature swing of several degrees in the much smaller arctic oceans, and in spite of the ice melting, the globe might be cooling for a brief period.

Nevertheless, many of you, based on personal experience, have deduced that your personal observations over say no more than 50 years of this 15,000 year warming stretch, conclusively convince you that AGW is real. I really, really doubt that such assessments are valid as well.

Of course, we've been here before. Now is when most of you trot out the tired old rhetoric of scientific consensus of opinions, and I point out the multiple times in the past when the overwhelming consensus of the vast majority of scientists the world over was wrong.

Now I will ever so gently suggest again that for most of you - almost all of you - that Science has replaced Religion in your consciousness, and that there is no amount of evidence that disputes AGW that will ever shake your Faith on this topic. But NO, you will say, I don't have any Religion, I believe in Science, and I always will, and you cannot convince me otherwise. It will never ever enter your pointy little heads that you are professing the Faith of the True Believer, or that this is anything but Scientific.

End of summary.
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Warning: Messages timestamped before April 1, 2016, 06:00 PST were posted by the unmodified human KaiserJeep 1.0
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Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Tue 18 Oct 2016, 15:25:12

PS to the above: Now is when many PO.com members are so profoundly upset with my Heretical suggestions about the infallibility of the great god Science that they claim to be putting me on their "Ignore" list, although most eventually re-enter the fray.
KaiserJeep 2.0, Neural Subnode 0010 0000 0001 0110 - 1001 0011 0011, Tertiary Adjunct to Unimatrix 0000 0000 0001

Resistance is Futile, YOU will be Assimilated.

Warning: Messages timestamped before April 1, 2016, 06:00 PST were posted by the unmodified human KaiserJeep 1.0
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