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Guy McPherson Pt. 1

Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Sun 16 Oct 2016, 04:31:32

I'm not advocating we quit the use of fossil fuels. Won't make a difference. We are too far gone. We were too far gone thousands of years ago, we are just finding out now. Geological processes initiated 8000 years ago set us on a track we have no control over.

It's over. The vast majority die in the near term no matter what. Far more than your figures. There is no blame, it just is what it is. We probably accelerated it with the use of fossil fuels so it's happening sooner than it would otherwise, but it was already inevitable. Just sooner now than later. We had no way to know. We are in an extinction level event. No one gets out alive.

All I can suggest is live for today. Make the best of the time you have left.

It is the ultimate human hubris to believe we were ever in a position to prevent this. Some things are just bigger than us.
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Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby kiwichick » Sun 16 Oct 2016, 04:32:22

so ......petroleum fuelled agriculture is a part of the problem but not feeding people is not the solution

one of the first steps is dis incentivizing population growth in high consumption countries .....like New Zealand , Australia , Canada, USA , Western Europe and the UK

but that would involve our so called leaders ,both in politics and religion , facing the facts and telling the truth

good luck with that
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Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Sun 16 Oct 2016, 07:28:46

Cid, "geological forces" have nothing to do with this, other than their role in FF production. The urge to procreate and occupy territory and to exclude other tribes than yours from your territory are basic ape behaviors. The only thing different about humans is the foreknowledge of our self-caused doom.

Sometimes the AGW fanboys get so sanctimonious about climate change that they need a reminder about what "stopping" the warming means. Until and if we can satisfy our food growing and transport with alternative energies, it means the genocide of humans - and acknowledging this and working to replace FF's a necessary first step. I honestly believe that our Western-style civilization can be run on 15% of the energy we consume now. That's enough of a reduction to make alternative energies the main energy source and to stretch out the remaining FF's for centuries.

But it does nothing to save the third world populations where FF's make the difference between malnutrition and starvation. Even for the Westerners, it requires re-implementing and rebooting our civilization from the ground up to be energy-efficient. That would require at least a generation of serious hardship for us, which is why it's never happening - most Americans think that not having somebody to vote for is a hardship. Meanwhile they are hauling their lazy carcasses around in three tons of metal, and wasting 40% of the food they buy.
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Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 16 Oct 2016, 08:35:25

What is happening in the Arctic is quite obvious now. The permafrost which is the only thing that was keeping the methane below trapped, is melting in an accelerated fashion. Plumes, blowholes and other indications of large releases have been increasingly observed. I guess some here have not read the extensive postings by Cid especially on the runaway global warming has arrived threads. I have yet to hear anyone rebut with merit the conclusion Cid reached from extensive research about the catastrophic peril of the ESAS and the methane escaping from there. This article I found is revealing in so much as the "On one side of this debate are those declaring the apocalypse is nigh due to, what they think, is an inevitable catastrophic methane release driven by an unprecedentedly rapid human warming of the Arctic. A release large enough to wipe out global human civilization. These doomsayers are fueled by a number of scientists (usually Arctic observational specialists) who continue to express concern — due to an increasing number of troubling, if not yet catastrophic, rumblings coming from the Arctic carbon store. The Arctic is warming faster than it ever has, they accurately note. And this very rapid rate of warming is putting unprecedented and dangerous stresses on carbon stores, including methane, that have lain dormant for many millions of years. The risk of catastrophic release, therefore, is high enough to sound the alarm. On the other side are a number of mainstream news outlets backed up by a group of established scientists. This group claims that there’s generally no reason to worry about a methane apocalypse." https://robertscribbler.com/2015/03/09/ ... n-craters/
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Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby Paulo1 » Sun 16 Oct 2016, 08:36:07

Very good post, KJ. Sad but true. The question I have, will a reset be a slow grind down or a series of events impossible to deal with? One just has to look at the disruptions of migrations in EU to see what even small changes bring. (Certainly not insignificant to the migrants, but small compared to what a total disruption might bring).

Somehow I don't think living in a renewable Nirvana will remain unaffected by when entire continents could explode in hunger. I always laugh at the Chinese buying farm land in Africa for their own needs. Rhodesia wasn't too long ago and my local city is awash with newly arrived South African doctors seeking refuge right now, and have the means to find it. In fact, our rural valley just welcomed a South African denturist who will commute to work from his farmhouse paradise. Just yesterday I read a new NASA report predicting a more dire SW decades long drought.
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Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby Ibon » Sun 16 Oct 2016, 09:10:18

onlooker wrote:What is happening in the Arctic is quite obvious now. The permafrost which is the only thing that was keeping the methane below trapped, is melting in an accelerated fashion. Plumes, blowholes and other indications of large releases have been increasingly observed. I guess some here have not read the extensive postings by Cid especially on the runaway global warming has arrived threads. I have yet to hear anyone rebut with merit the conclusion Cid reached from extensive research about the catastrophic peril of the ESAS and the methane escaping from there. This article I found is revealing in so much as the "On one side of this debate are those declaring the apocalypse is nigh due to, what they think, is an inevitable catastrophic methane release driven by an unprecedentedly rapid human warming of the Arctic. A release large enough to wipe out global human civilization. These doomsayers are fueled by a number of scientists (usually Arctic observational specialists) who continue to express concern — due to an increasing number of troubling, if not yet catastrophic, rumblings coming from the Arctic carbon store. The Arctic is warming faster than it ever has, they accurately note. And this very rapid rate of warming is putting unprecedented and dangerous stresses on carbon stores, including methane, that have lain dormant for many millions of years. The risk of catastrophic release, therefore, is high enough to sound the alarm. On the other side are a number of mainstream news outlets backed up by a group of established scientists. This group claims that there’s generally no reason to worry about a methane apocalypse." https://robertscribbler.com/2015/03/09/ ... n-craters/


Onlooker, the extreme positions do frame the argument and serve a purpose. Worst case scenarios apply interestingly enough to both the physical dynamics of climate change and to the human response to consequences. Keep in mind KJ's comment that industrial civilization could still persist using 15% of current ff consumption. Apply that idea to the physical consequences as well. We do not know the exact built in resiliency to climate change consequences but for argument sake we can assume that it is similarly elastic and not quite so brittle as to be taking us inevitably to extinction. Too many factors as discussed many times here at play from micro climates to elevation gradients to ocean currents etc. etc.

There is this band width when consequences unfold where humans will finally address and adapt to these changes. That bandwidth has some elasticity both in energy requirements as KJ pointed out as well as still livable bio regions as temperatures rise.

It is within that bandwidth that cultural adaptation finally happens, probably not without a major die-off in the latter part of this century and the few that follow. Anyone who makes black and white claims as to where we are heading are fools. We are not fools though in accurately identifying the trigger points that will move us into the age of consequences.

Pinpointing accurately is impossible. Understanding the forces is however is valuable. We can't do more than that and you cant read anything more into all the charts than acknowledging that forces are upon us that will be life altering and represent a major game changer.

Embrace climate change as a solution to human overshoot is pragmatic and prudent. At 7 billion plus humans are extremely vulnerable to stresses that will unfold. Unknowns are in how well we will adapt within that ever diminishing banddwidth.

Wiggle room gets narrower and narrower which paradoxically is exactly what has to happen to affect change.
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Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 16 Oct 2016, 09:28:32

Ibon, normally I would side with your point of view as it is very sensible and reasonable. However, what I have already read especially from Cid's postings truly sounds catastrophic. Just to list some key points as I see it.
First: Vast methane releases are implicated in most Mass Extinction Events on Earth
Second. We have a humongous world population that we must feed
Third. The Arctic and in particular the East Siberian Shelf has stored very large amounts of methane.
Fourth: This methane is very vulnerable to escape because of shallow ocean depths and solely being imprisoned by the permafrost which NOW is increasingly melting and becoming permeable and ruptured.
Fifth: Experts on that area have sounded the alarm that a release of a catastrophic amount of methane can happen at any time.
Sixth: Because of the GHG properties of methane, it would deliver probably a death blow to many agricultural areas on the planet by rapidly increasing global temperatures.
Seventh: With the methane released the process would play out logically as an extinction level event given the celerity of the warming and the scientific understanding that runaway global warming is a process that has happened and can happen again.
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Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Sun 16 Oct 2016, 12:10:07

I am a devotee of Kunstler and his work The Long Emergency. IOW I believe in the slow crash scenario, and that the next few generations of people will lead lives of increasing discomfort and eventually, quiet desperation.

Kiwichick, it is already true in the USA and most modern nations that the native populations would be slowly shrinking were it not for new immigrants. I think this is also an evolutionary adaption, to slow the population overshoot. But to return to my coin analogy, the flipside of this one is that a comfortable place to live is a magnet for disadvantaged and endangered refugees.

Obviously, one cannot preserve those comforts of civilization, or preserve a standard of living high enough to take a caretaker approach to the environment, with open borders. Although it is unpopular "Trump politics", the wall around a First World country is necessary if any humans are to survive, because in the Third World, the natural urge of evolution requires that one have enough kids that those that survive will continue to feed the grandparents.

Inevitably, we must close the borders. I would advocate a realistic approach - say a half mile stretch of "no man's land" patrolled by automated killer robots and armed aerial drones. Anybody in the zone dies, no appeals, no alternatives. Anything short of this is actually too cruel - you have to make it impossible to immigrate by illegal means, or illegal immigrants will continue to die as they do today. I realize this has a political downside, but having thought it through all the way to the end, it is far less cruel than having hundreds perish every year in the long treks in the deserts along our SouthWest borders.

Temper this with whatever alternatives and quotas you want for legal immigration. But such immigrants must submit to biometric confirmation of identity, pay taxes, and assimilate into mainstream American culture. The melting pot approach does work if the cultures are not kept separate and unequal.

I would also favor mandatory public service for all citizens. Say five years of public service in infrastructure renewal, the military, public healthcare, whatever. This service earns the right to vote and the birthrights for your own children.

I understand the massive implications of just these few changes I have proposed. Just consider the alternatives before you reject them out of hand.

Otherwise, it's all over, indeed.
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Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 16 Oct 2016, 13:34:26

KaiserJeep wrote:
Inevitably, we must close the borders. I would advocate a realistic approach - say a half mile stretch of "no man's land" patrolled by automated killer robots and armed aerial drones. Anybody in the zone dies, no appeals, no alternatives.


That is not inevitable at all.

What is far more likely is that Hillary and the Ds will greatly expand Obama's current policy of facilitating legal and illegal immigration That's actually one of her campaign promises.

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Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 16 Oct 2016, 13:45:47

Ah, another fact free discussion. How nice.

"500 million small farms and provide over 80 per cent of the food ... They produce 70 per cent of Africa's food supply"

https://www.ifad.org/documents/10180/66 ... 2d1f01d5dd

Big FF soaked ag is not feeding the world. Don't believe the hype.

The amount of ff's the world's poorest use is miniscule compared to what most first world countries use per capita.

Furthermore: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-afric ... SKCN12B254

As prices plunge, Africa surges into clean, cheap solar energy

(And, by the way, Kunstler devotes an entire chapter--chapter five, to be specific--of The Long Emergency to Climate Change and to its horrific effects...one might think that someone devoted to that book might have noticed that fact.)
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Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby kiwichick » Sun 16 Oct 2016, 14:14:25

@ d...thankfully our agriculture in New Zealand is mainly grass based......and we are not yet over populated...although at the current rate we will be in less than 35 years
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Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 16 Oct 2016, 17:45:42

(Also, since people seem to be deeply ignorant on this front, as well: http://www.pewhispanic.org/2015/11/19/m ... o-the-u-s/ "More Mexicans Leaving Than Coming to the U.S.")
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Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Sun 16 Oct 2016, 18:40:50

dohboi wrote:(Also, since people seem to be deeply ignorant on this front, as well: http://www.pewhispanic.org/2015/11/19/m ... o-the-u-s/ "More Mexicans Leaving Than Coming to the U.S.")


Another meaning-free post by the doughboy. Understand that Mexicans are but one of the Hispanic populations crossing the Southern US border. The other countries of origin are mainly El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Ecuador, and Brazil. Official figures are 11.3 million illegals, certainly way low. Unofficially, probably 30+ million.
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Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 16 Oct 2016, 19:45:13

Ah, another uncited, limp and link-less post by KJ. Quelle suprise! :lol: :lol:
OT for this thread, too. Take it elsewhere.
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Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby jedrider » Mon 17 Oct 2016, 01:11:15

How FAST can we CRASH? I think that is the question for this thread.

CENTURY -- Not even a credible possibility, even though the IPCC seems to be based upon this scenario. This is where deniers are probably now.

HALF CENTURY -- This probably encompasses the beliefs of many who accept the seriousness of our dilemma. But is this realistic now? This is where optimists reside.

SCORE LEVEL -- This seems to be where we are headed if we take worst case scenarios. Would this give us enough time to do foolish things? Who knows.

DECADE LEVEL -- This would require the Methane Bomb and seems far fetched, or is it? Widespread P-A-N-I-C would ensue.

Whichever timeline you choose, it's OVER in too short a time. Our belief that civilization can mitigate against this is certainly OVER.

(KJ. The Slow Crash was postulated as a response to peak oil, not abrupt climate change.)
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Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Mon 17 Oct 2016, 04:55:02

Except that the unproven theory of AGW is just that. A theory. Even if it were real and not a theory, the idea that abrupt climate change can happen ignores the climate feedback loops, or rather, it assumes that such feedbacks increase the rate of temperature change rather than decrease - they get the polarity wrong.

The very idea that we have working mathematical climate models defies logic. The state of the art in computing is two orders of magnitude from being adequate to construct a working climate model. Which is why all of the existing models do not work.

Doomies get so wrapped up in their shared fantasy, it really is pathetic.
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Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Mon 17 Oct 2016, 05:20:07

What's pathetic is you actually believe what you just posted. :roll:
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Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Mon 17 Oct 2016, 06:06:26

Yeah, I do. I worked for 37 years in the computing field, and I understand the limitations of mathematically modeling complex systems with computers. But after speaking thousands of words, I have not successfully communicated this to anybody here. So just the highlights:

Please identify a climate model which works, just one. We will test it by going back in the online temperature archives and then comparing the predicted global temperatures with the actual measurements in the archive. If the predicted temperatures match the recorded measurements, we will consider the model to be correct.

Every climate model so far tried fails this simple test. I believe that present computing resources are at least two orders of magnitude too small to build a successful model of global climate. But I allow for the possibility that there may exist an adequate computer in the near future.

This was the most powerful computer produced by my prior employer:
Image

It does a fine job of modeling electrical grid performance at the NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory) when various combinations of renewable energy sources get attached to the power grid. It's one of the most powerful computers of it's type in the world, and it's inadequate to the task I described. Yet our tax dollars are paying for thousands of idiots who are running "climate models" using PC spreadsheets, which are four orders of magnitude too weak for global climate modelling.
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Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 17 Oct 2016, 06:49:40

As noted above, you don't need models or computing to figure out that AGW is real and dangerous. Arrhenius figured out the basic physics 120 years ago without any computers or models. The electromagnetic wavelength absorption spectrum of CO2 is about as well established as the temperature that water boils at. The further confirmation that this basic physics is now playing out around us is just basic measurements of how much we burn, how much CO2 concentrations have gone up, and how much global temperatures have gone up.

Oh, the other requirements are a tiny amount of honesty and a couple of brain cells to rub together to connect these glaringly obvious dots. Hard to tell which (if not both) are lacking in JK's case! :lol: :lol:
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Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 17 Oct 2016, 06:55:06

KaiserJeep wrote:?...thousands of idiots who are running "climate models" using PC spreadsheets, which are four orders of magnitude too weak for global climate modelling.


Actually global climate models are run on the fastest supercomputers currently available.

AND a next generation "exacomputer" ----faster then any current supercomputer----is being planned to further improve climate modeling.

exacomputer for GCM

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