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Guy McPherson Pt. 1

Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 14 Oct 2016, 07:06:53

Kaiser your designation of Doomers is farcical. One reason I like being here is because we talk about reality without blinders. The majority of people are in active or passive denial about what is going on in this planet. Doomers are in fact realists. The full reality of what is going on is just too much for most to handle. That does not make the reality and facts any less real. As Cid stated we are ALREADY witnessing the destabilization of the planets climate system. It does not get more shocking than that. So name calling of the kind you and Jesus are resorting to, is a sign of how emotionally invested you are. I can just as easily call you cowards. But I prefer not too and it is against the COC of this site
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Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby regardingpo » Fri 14 Oct 2016, 07:12:39

kiwichick wrote:funny thing ......how many reports by credible scientists working on climate related issues are saying the problems are not as bad as previously thought?

Around zero. Compared to a seemingly endless stream of scientific papers that claims things are actually worse than they thought.

But that doesn't mean McPherson is right. He is too extreme. His position is that all humans will go extinct by 2030. And he claims it will definitely happen and that it's unstoppable.

He doesn't have any reliable sources or research to back up that claim. That claim simply doesn't follow from the scientific papers that he cites (and sometimes misinterprets).

In fact the only source he has for his ludicrous claim is a blog post by some random dude, which has been debunked by the way. You can find multiple debunkings online if you look for them, here's one:
We discuss the central role played in Guy’s dating scheme, the time of our extinction, by a single “paper” (which turns out to be just a blog post) by Malcolm Light of the Arctic News. I’ve written extensively about the unreliable nature of Malcolm Light’s pretty wild prediction, including the very month and year all humans will be gone from the Northern Hemisphere.

In what looks like a scientific paper, complete with complex graphs and charts, we find this stunning announcement: “The absolute mean extinction time for the northern hemisphere is 2031.8 and for the southern hemisphere 2047.6 with a final mean extinction time for 3/4 of the earth’s surface of 2039.6.“

Well that’s pretty precise isn’t it? In August 2031, say goodbye for those of us in the Northern Hemisphere.

http://www.ecoshock.info/2014/09/human- ... -much.html
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Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby jesus_of_suburbia » Fri 14 Oct 2016, 07:18:58

onlooker wrote:Kaiser your designation of Doomers is farcical. One reason I like being here is because we talk about reality without blinders. The majority of people are in active or passive denial about what is going on in this planet. Doomers are in fact realists. The full reality of what is going on is just too much for most to handle. That does not make the reality and facts any less real. As Cid stated we are ALREADY witnessing the destabilization of the planets climate system. It does not get more shocking than that. So name calling of the kind you and Jesus are resorting to, is a sign of how emotionally invested you are. I can just as easily call you cowards. But I prefer not too and it is against the COC of this site

He engages on his own amount of name calling, so I don't see what your point is. The fact if the matter is that his claim to fame here was ESAS blowout hysteria. Dissident absolutely embarrassed him to the point of Cid running off to the comfort of a board where he knew everyone agreed with him and would stroke his ego. Taking that into consideration, who is the one heavily invested in their worldview?
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Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby regardingpo » Fri 14 Oct 2016, 07:38:26

KaiserJeep wrote:AGW, if real, is a symptom.

It is real. There is no scientific debate at this point about whether it's real. There is no debate whether it's dangerous. There is no debate that we're seeing some effects right now. There's no debate that we're talking decades, not centuries, before major things start happening. The only debate is how dangerous, exactly when, where, what etc.

This is a good site that debunks many deniers' myths:
http://www.skepticalscience.com/argument.php

The only debate that exists is a false political debate which is limited to countries like US and Australia - countries with strong fossil fuel lobbies and an abundance of people who are proud of their willful ignorance. Contrast that for example with countries like France, Germany etc. where no major political parties are even trying to deny climate change.

Deniers' arguments are so moronically stupid and easily debunked by anyone who is actually interested in finding out the truth. Here's a funny compilation:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uMGjk-RO4Uk

My favorite is the last bit where Barry talks about a snowball, referring to this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3E0a_60PMR8
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Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 14 Oct 2016, 08:20:08

KJ, if he is real, should go stuff himself!! :lol: :lol:

Guy certainly picks worst case scenarios and occasionally some studies that are less than scientific. But his detractors in criticizing him also cherry pick--only selecting his weakest evidence. He presents much more than that. I don't happen to agree with the conclusions he comes to, but he certainly does draw on many legitimate studies in coming to it.

The gist of his arguments seems to be that at some point China (and probably the world) will have an economic downturn. This will lead to the shuttering of many of their coal plants, plants which currently generate much of the aerosol that forms the aerosol umbrella that is keeping the earth temperature lower than it otherwise would be. Loss of this 'umbrella' will, by his calculation, cause a sudden jump in global temperature (I think he claims 2 degrees or more), which in turn will trigger any number of feedback mechanisms...

First, coming up with an exact date for any (not astronomical) future event is not generally a very good idea.
The aerosol issues is, though, indeed a tough one--another horrible bind we have gotten ourselves into. The problems with his analysis on this front, however, are at least two-fold: not all coal plants are going to be shuttered at once, and the forcing from aerosols, while still not well understood, looks from latest studies to be more like .5 degrees C, not 2.

Finally, probably carbon feedbacks won't kick in quite as quickly as he proposes. But these again are, indeed, very serious problems. And there are plenty of unknowns.

So for me, his time scale is almost surely off, and the amount of increase is also very likely off, but the general direction that he thinks that things are likely to go at some point...I find little to disagree with. And those that notice that scientists keep seem to be surprised that things are going south faster than they thought might be forgiven for lending an ear to someone who just sets all parameters on worst possible outcomes. A tad of humility from him, though, would be nice to see once in a while.

But maybe I'm missing something?
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Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Fri 14 Oct 2016, 09:46:34

regardingpo, I will acknowledge that the globe is warming, has been warming since the Pleistocene Ice Age, and will continue to warm for another 2000-20,000 years from entirely natural causes. Evidence of warming is not evidence of AGW, you must prove that the warming itself is caused by mankind. For all of the computer modelling of climate and the billions in funding, this remains unproven. Even if you were able to prove such, we have burned so many FF's it is actually irrelevant whether this has mildly accelerated the naturally warming climate or not. The Warming won't be what kills us, compared to running out of cheap FF's and cheap energy.

Plantagenet, I agree that everything that can be consumed by humans on the planet is doomed. Accessible FF's, clean water, naturally growing foods, in fact most species on the planet, as we multiply and consume at advanced rates. Eventually, only humans and the human food species will remain, aside from isolated pockets of the few remaining animal and plant species we have no use for. Not a happy thought.

Onlooker, I did not call anybody a Doomer, and I agree if I had done so, it would be a violation of the rules. I used "Cid" which is a derivative of his screen name, and was respectful when I asked for a clarification of his prediction of Doom. I used "Doomers" to refer to the collection of users at PO.com who are confidently predicting Doom, until some of them (like Pops) just decide to live without predicting a Doom that never comes. Neither of the terms "Doomies" or "AGW fanboys" are against the rules, when not applied to a specific user. If you choose to include yourself in that category, you may - recall I referred to myself as a Doomie.

Jesus of Suburbia, careful of the rules, please. You must not verbally abuse other members.
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Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby ralfy » Fri 14 Oct 2016, 10:50:51

One important point to consider is found in one of the comments here:

https://fractalplanet.wordpress.com/201 ... tastrophe/

That is, the blog writer doesn't deny the "urgency of climate change." In which case, it can happen sooner or later, but it will still be over. And since we're dealing with multiple crises amplifying each other (global warming, peak oil, environmental damage, etc.), then it's only logical to assume a worst-case scenario. That way, communities can prepare earlier.
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Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby jesus_of_suburbia » Fri 14 Oct 2016, 10:56:30

Communities aren't going to prepare, and we are probably not going to see any positive collective action. We are likely headed for the worst case that will happen rapidly on a geological timescale. However, that doesn't mean we should entertain self-serving doom peddlers like McPherson and Cid Yama.
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Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby eugene » Fri 14 Oct 2016, 11:17:02

If we get a large, sudden release of methane, it will be over suddenly. I am greatly amused by the inability of people to even entertain the idea that McPherson is right. When potentials, I don't like, are ignored, one can find him/herself in deep shit totally unprepared. More and more climatologists see quick changes occurring in the situation we may be in ie abrupt climate change.

I view people who resist any idea of a negative potential, I am reminded of myself. Twice in my life, I denied the potential only to have it happen. It is not a pleasant experience. But if the potential for an unpleasant reality frightens you, denial is an option.
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Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Fri 14 Oct 2016, 11:17:59

jesus_of_suburbia wrote:Communities aren't going to prepare, and we are probably not going to see any positive collective action. We are likely headed for the worst case that will happen rapidly on a geological timescale. However, that doesn't mean we should entertain self-serving doom peddlers like McPherson and Cid Yama.


Nevertheless, Cid is a longtime member in good standing who obeys the rules. Even "self-serving doom peddlers" is borderline for this particular online community - when applied to another member by name. Anything goes (within the bounds of normal language decorum) as far as opinions about outside publishers such as McPherson, as they are not PO.com users.

You haven't - quite - exceeded the rules. We appreciate good and respectful dialogue as it promotes interaction and furthers understanding.

So feel free to abuse "self-serving doom peddlers" as much as you wish, as long as you do not include other members by name in the group being abused. If they feel themselves that the descriptor "self-serving doom peddlers" includes them, then that is their problem. You are also free to borrow "AGW Fanboys" and "Doomies" from me, and heap derision upon them, without naming other members.
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Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby jesus_of_suburbia » Fri 14 Oct 2016, 11:23:39

eugene wrote:If we get a large, sudden release of methane, it will be over suddenly. I am greatly amused by the inability of people to even entertain the idea that McPherson is right. When potentials, I don't like, are ignored, one can find him/herself in deep shit totally unprepared. More and more climatologists see quick changes occurring in the situation we may be in ie abrupt climate change.

I view people who resist any idea of a negative potential, I am reminded of myself. Twice in my life, I denied the potential only to have it happen. It is not a pleasant experience. But if the potential for an unpleasant reality frightens you, denial is an option.

He's not "entertaining" his own possibility. He's saying it's practically guaranteed. He's saying this out of his own interest. He's developed a personality cult around it.

Furthermore, no is saying it isn't possible. That's strawman bullshit. They're saying that current evidence doesn't put us on the path to extinction by 2030, or that the ESAS isn't gushing 3.5 gigatons of methane per year.
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Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby jesus_of_suburbia » Fri 14 Oct 2016, 11:26:14

KaiserJeep wrote:
jesus_of_suburbia wrote:Communities aren't going to prepare, and we are probably not going to see any positive collective action. We are likely headed for the worst case that will happen rapidly on a geological timescale. However, that doesn't mean we should entertain self-serving doom peddlers like McPherson and Cid Yama.


Nevertheless, Cid is a longtime member in good standing who obeys the rules. Even "self-serving doom peddlers" is borderline for this particular online community - when applied to another member by name. Anything goes (within the bounds of normal language decorum) as far as opinions about outside publishers such as McPherson, as they are not PO.com users.

You haven't - quite - exceeded the rules. We appreciate good and respectful dialogue as it promotes interaction and furthers understanding.

So feel free to abuse "self-serving doom peddlers" as much as you wish, as long as you do not include other members by name in the group being abused. If they feel themselves that the descriptor "self-serving doom peddlers" includes them, then that is their problem. You are also free to borrow "AGW Fanboys" and "Doomies" from me, and heap derision upon them, without naming other members.

I'm not playing nice with these people. They know full well what they are doing, and it's not done in the best interest of others, only themselves. If I get banned, I can live without this board. I won't come back under a different account like others do.
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Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 14 Oct 2016, 11:35:41

How is pointing out "headed for the worst case " by McPherson and Cid Yama then self-serving peddling? The only ambiguity to me is time span as estimated by McPherson and Cid Yama . Even there we don't and will not know till and when it happens or does not . So why label them prematurely
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Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby jesus_of_suburbia » Fri 14 Oct 2016, 11:46:04

The act of assigning these precise dates to event is a common doomer tactic. It's done draw attention to oneself. When you hit on one of your dates, you proclaim your own genius. When you miss, you skillfully evade criticism and then decide to start talking about the insignificance of dates in relation to the bigger picture. It goes like this:

1) Doomer proclaims X will happen by this date.
2) That date approaches and X seems like it's not going to happen.
3) Doomer says, "Oh, so I didn't get exact date. If it happens a few years later, what does it matter? I'll still be right."
4) Date passes. Doomer takes heat and usually lies low for a while. Maybe doesn't disappear, but is less strident.
5) Heat on the doomer subsides. Doomer ratchets up and doubles down on a new predicition.
6) Repeat cycle
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Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Fri 14 Oct 2016, 11:48:27

onlooker wrote:How is pointing out "headed for the worst case " by McPherson and Cid Yama then self-serving peddling? The only ambiguity to me is time span as estimated by McPherson and Cid Yama . Even there we don't and will not know till and when it happens or does not . So why label them prematurely


That puzzled me, too. I can see how "self-serving doom peddlers" applies to McPherson and his website, but I don't see how it would apply to Cid, who has nothing to gain or lose other than the respect of other PO.com members. He does a good job justifying his assertions and beliefs, even if I don't share some of them.

Which is more than I can say for "jesus_of_suburbia", who loses points for abusive language, profanity, and fails to explain his opinions. I'm not using the derivative "jesus" for anybody, either. So "Sub", explain yourself.

Edit: As for the message posted as I was typing mine, that doesn't explain anything, it is (as far as I can tell) a reasonably accurate description of some of the behaviors seen in some bloggers. It doesn't seem to apply to Cid or in fact anybody here.
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Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby jesus_of_suburbia » Fri 14 Oct 2016, 12:02:55

KaiserJeep wrote: That puzzled me, too. I can see how "self-serving doom peddlers" applies to McPherson and his website, but I don't see how it would apply to Cid, who has nothing to gain or lose other than the respect of other PO.com members. He does a good job justifying his assertions and beliefs, even if I don't share some of them.


Mr. Buck Rogers,

Have you ever been on Reddit? There are people on the site who use their dead and sick relatives, make up elaborate fabrications about themselves,etc. to earn fake Internet points. Humans have motivations outside of financial ones. Cid also maintains a blog and writes pretty extensive posts on it. I'm assuming if you are writing for the the general public, you have some sort of social desire for people to read what you write and respond to it. He views himself as some kind of shepherd for people coming to terms with his revelations.

KaiserJeep wrote: Which is more than I can say for "jesus_of_suburbia", who loses points for abusive language, profanity, and fails to explain his opinions. I'm not using the derivative "jesus" for anybody, either. So "Sub", explain yourself.


Take a look at the Runaway Global Warming pt 6 thread. The one where he and his clone accounts disappeared for a while. You'll see how good of a job he does "justifying his assertions and beliefs" when the grown ups arrive.
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Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Fri 14 Oct 2016, 12:16:30

Cid and I have traded opinions in the past about AGW, and frankly the AGW Fanboys bore me, and I won't read such threads. FWIW, I don't think that any amount of common sense and any amount of data disproving AGW will ever register with the fanboys. AGW is the thing that for most of them occupies the hole in their souls left when they excised religion.

Once you understand that, you understand that you will never change their minds, and that they will continue to exclude from consideration the copious and growing amounts of data disputing AGW. At that point, you are in effect disputing somebody's religion, even if most of them would resentfully insist that they have no religion. What that means is Science is their religion, and the men in white lab coats are their priests.
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Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby jedrider » Fri 14 Oct 2016, 12:21:32

KaiserJeep wrote:The end of what, exactly?
...
We need to look for another place to live.


Your second comment is foolish. We don't have time. This is clearly evident.

McPherson has been using the date 2030 for quite some time now (from my memory), maybe, since 2005. So, he appears to be stuck on that date, which is quite an aggressive date. So, let's look at the evidence retrospectively. It is all over (I mean, everywhere you look)! So, if apocalypse, as guy would call it (I think) is so near at hand, then, by 2020 we will probably know for sure. The degrees C above baseline have to keep growing (as they have, actually), without a significant pause even.

Clearly, breakdown of our civilization could be OVER by 2030. We could read deeper into it, but that is bad enough because there is no resilience in our system. We could be at the stage of Aleppo, Syria easily. Guy seems to be going further, somewhere where most of us cannot yet go.
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Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby jesus_of_suburbia » Fri 14 Oct 2016, 12:22:44

KaiserJeep wrote:Cid and I have traded opinions in the past about AGW, and frankly the AGW Fanboys bore me, and I won't read such threads. FWIW, I don't think that any amount of common sense and any amount of data disproving AGW will ever register with the fanboys. AGW is the thing that for most of them occupies the hole in their souls left when they excised religion.

Once you understand that, you understand that you will never change their minds, and that they will continue to exclude from consideration the copious and growing amounts of data disputing AGW. At that point, you are in effect disputing somebody's religion, even if most of them would resentfully insist that they have no religion. What that means is Science is their religion, and the men in white lab coats are their priests.

I'm not really on board with that- evidence denying global warming. I'm arguing against the 3.5 gigatons of methane that have been gushing out of the ESAS yearly since around 2009, that has somehow been hiding away in the atmosphere all this time.
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Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby Ibon » Fri 14 Oct 2016, 13:01:45

More profound is to ask why in the first place is there a need to fix a date or level of doom?
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