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Guy McPherson Pt. 1

Re: Ehrlich and McPherson conversation

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 20 May 2016, 22:25:30

ennui2 wrote:Toba catastrophe was "challenging" too.


Sure, but at the time of the Toba eruption modern Homo Sapiens were limited to one continent, Africa, and we survived. At the same time Neanderthal inhabited Europe and Denosovans inhabited Siberia and we know that they both survived as well despite even harsher climate conditions in those regions. We know for certain they survived because traces of their DNA are found in modern Humans, and our most direct ancestor was limited to Africa, so for inter breeding to have been prevalent enough for DNA traces to remain in modern humans both sub groups had to have had viable breeding populations for at least 10,000 years after Toba erupted.

Nobody with any sense says the transition from the 1900 climate regime to the 2, 4, 6 C increase climate regime is going to be a walk in the park with a nice little picnic at the end. Hard times and significant population crash do not sound the least bit like a good time to me, YMMV. My point is you can go from 10,000,000,000 down to 10,000 where only 1 in a million survive and you will still have a viable breeding population. If we had not gone through the genetic bottle neck when Toba erupted you could go down to around 1,000 and still have a viable breeding population.
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Re: Ehrlich and McPherson conversation

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 21 May 2016, 00:02:37

Tanada wrote:
onlooker wrote:Revi, from the book 6 degrees by Mark Lynas, makes it pretty clear from the available science that 4C would mean pretty much 6C and that WOULD spell extinction for humanity. In fact one can make the case from the book that at around 2C, feedbacks are activated that will inevitably lead to 6C or above.


I have actually read the book and Mark Lynas said things would be challenging in the 6C world, not extinction of all humanity. Some people like to spin out extinction every other breath Onlooker, but in terms of hard science there isn't a whole lot to satisfy the claim.

Yes your right T, I checked the book. The author finds it unlikely. However, saying it is unlikely to saying it is not possible are two different things. So, while my use of words made it out to be a certainty it is a possibility given the tremendously inhospitable environment 6C represents.
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Re: Ehrlich and McPherson conversation

Unread postby Revi » Tue 24 May 2016, 10:00:50

Excellent conversation!

These two guys are definitely shouting into the wind.

We'll see what happens, but they are right, and have been right for a long time.

Will anyone hear them? Who knows?
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
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When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby jedrider » Thu 13 Oct 2016, 13:36:11

Just finished listening to Guy McPherson who seems to have semi-retired and bugged out to Central America as a 1st World-er now living in a 3rd World Agrarian country.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C8Y1gGxUgFQ

He seems to be well past the alarm stage and is just waiting for it to happen now: He says our wait is just 10 years out or so.

Reminds me of this following song if one substitutes for the lost love, our love affair gone wrong with our "Civilizational Heat Engine (as he calls it)":

Michael Franks wrote:Your specialty is not eroticism
I guess your boyfriend's into masochism
Your body temperature is 10 below
When it's over, it's over, it's over, it's over
When it's over, it's over, it's over, it's over
It's me myself is just a game you played
You do exactly what your parents say
If that's identity then "Bird" can't blow
When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over
When it's over, it's over, it's over, it's over
All those books upon your shelf
Did they teach you how to cure yourself
Not even Sigmund Freud could save you from the love you destroyed
It wasn't hard to make the big decision
My life with you was like a bad collision
Just like a river now I'm free to flow
When it's over, it's over, it's over, it's over
When it's over, it's over, it's over, it's over
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Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 13 Oct 2016, 14:12:23

Thanks, jed.

Other songs also come to mind:
Roy: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h9JArvEJ64M
Boz: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LA7YYub ... iS&index=7
Neil: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jCH31u__eXI
Jim, too: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JSUIQgEVDM4
And of course, from Bob, our new Nobel Prize winner in Literature: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=af7ngGxEusE

"...yonder stands your orphan with his gun
crying like a fire in the sun
look out the saints are coming through
and it's all over now, baby blue..."
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Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 13 Oct 2016, 14:34:57

jedrider wrote:Just finished listening to Guy McPherson who seems to have semi-retired and bugged out to Central America as a 1st World-er now living in a 3rd World Agrarian country.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C8Y1gGxUgFQ
He seems to be well past the alarm stage and is just waiting for it to happen now: He says our wait is just 10 years out or so.


https://fractalplanet.wordpress.com/201 ... -it-wrong/
In many ways, McPherson is a photo-negative of the self-proclaimed “climate skeptics” who reject the conclusions of climate science. He may be advocating the opposite conclusion, but he argues his case in the same way. The skeptics often quote snippets of science that, on full examination, doesn’t actually support their claims, and this is McPherson’s modus operandi. The skeptics dismiss science they don’t like by saying that climate researchers lie to keep the grant money coming; McPherson dismisses inconvenient science by claiming that scientists are downplaying risks because they’re too cowardly to speak the truth and flout our corporate overlords. Both malign the IPCC as “political” and therefore not objective. And both will cite nearly any claim that supports their views, regardless of source— putting evidence-free opinions on par with scientific research. (In one example I can’t help but highlight, McPherson cites a survivalist blog warning that Earth’s atmosphere is running out of oxygen.)

When people on either side of the debate have to engage in science denial and cite conspiracy theories to bolster their case, then how do they earn ANY credibility for the claims they make?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby Ibon » Thu 13 Oct 2016, 15:09:19

Outcast_Searcher wrote:When people on either side of the debate have to engage in science denial and cite conspiracy theories to bolster their case, then how do they earn ANY credibility for the claims they make?


Denial on one side, apocalypse on the other, they orbit each other like binary stars.
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Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 13 Oct 2016, 15:20:37

My evaluation from the facts and data is humanity is up against staggering problems. On the other hand we are a very resilient species and the future is unknown. Hope ALWAYS exists
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Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby jesus_of_suburbia » Thu 13 Oct 2016, 15:25:53

If we're talking about McPherson, this song comes to mind: https://youtu.be/7xxgRUyzgs0
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Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby kiwichick » Thu 13 Oct 2016, 16:23:58

funny thing ......how many reports by credible scientists working on climate related issues are saying the problems are not as bad as previously thought?
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Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 13 Oct 2016, 20:07:24

kiwichick wrote:funny thing ......how many reports by credible scientists working on climate related issues are saying the problems are not as bad as previously thought?

Not being a climate scientist, I can only comment on the big picture. The trend I see is that the scientific consensus (overall) gets worse and worse as we learn more about AGW and its effects.

I liken it to a tornado prediction path. The path continues to shift toward a more dangerous route (faster) over time.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Thu 13 Oct 2016, 20:26:09

Bad analogy Tornado paths have a duration of minutes, and no trend analysis. Hurricane/Typhoon tracks are of days and weeks duration, subjected to heavy trend analysis.

Those who predict Doom repeatedly have a form of mental illness. You can see them in two large forums, which are Evangelical religious programming, and Climate Change media. Then there is one smaller Forum, PeakOil.com.

So far, every one of the tens of thousands of confident predictions of the End of Days, the Apocalypse, and the fall of technology have been wrong.

I suppose that it is possible, a minute mathematical possibility, a probability figure with a zero before the decimal and many zeroes after the decimal. But I just don't see it ever happening.

I mean, a lot of people will be hurting when energy gets expensive. But won't be the End of the World.
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Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby GHung » Thu 13 Oct 2016, 20:31:03

kiwichick wrote:funny thing ......how many reports by credible scientists working on climate related issues are saying the problems are not as bad as previously thought?


How many? Credible examples?
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Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby jjhman » Thu 13 Oct 2016, 20:48:31

I'm taking a "senior citizen's" economics class. The obviously very smart instructor is simply dumbfounded by the notion of there being a limit to growth. He forsees a per capita income in the US of $450,000 in 20 years, excluding inflation!

There's a limit to growth, there's a limit to resource extraction, there's a limit to abuse of the natural world. All of these concepts are obvious but recognizing them is very painful for anyone with "expertise" in making the system work.

Will the end come with peak oil? I certainly thought so 10 years ago. Now I am overwhelmed by the resiliance of the current paradigm. It's gonna end. Will it be gradual, like Mayan civilization or abrupt like Nazi Germany? Nobody knows.
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Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Thu 13 Oct 2016, 20:58:51

The end of what, exactly?

Are you talking about the end of affordable under $3/gallon gasoline, the end of the human race, the end of life on Earth, or the heat death of the Universe? All will happen eventually, it is certain.

The end IMHO is not any event of any duration. It is a process. It began around 1800 AD when the number of humans surpassed that generally accepted number of 1 billion humans. The End continues today, and it continues to accelerate. Resource depletions, species extinctions, relative poverty, and human angst are all real.

Life will become steadily more difficult, more desperate, and possible only for dwindling numbers of humans. I doubt if it will take less than one century, or more than ten centuries.

We need to look for another place to live.
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Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Thu 13 Oct 2016, 21:24:40

It began around 1800 AD when the number of humans surpassed that generally accepted number of 1 billion humans.


Accepted by who? 1 billion has never been sustainable.

Try 5 million. The world population at 8000 BC when farming and animal husbandry took us from our numbers being limited by environmental factors to us exceeding our natural limits through our cleverness.

When hunter-gathering was no longer possible as the sole means of sustenance due to environmental degradation because of how many of us there were. (Why we took up farming and raising livestock.)

Prior to that we were nomadic, allowing areas to recover.
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The level of injustice and wrong you endure is directly determined by how much you quietly submit to. Even to the point of extinction.
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Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Thu 13 Oct 2016, 22:38:01

I just have to laugh now at the deniers and lukewarmers. It is happening as we speak. They can protest all they want, make up whatever scenario in their mind they want. But the meat's about to meet the metal. And all their nonsense will have been wasted breath.

Reality could care less how much you protest, or what you care to believe. Physical laws are physical laws, they are neither open to interpretation or influence. It is what it is.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6OdVYnnp0Uw
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The level of injustice and wrong you endure is directly determined by how much you quietly submit to. Even to the point of extinction.
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Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Fri 14 Oct 2016, 04:51:13

Cid, what makes your predictions of Doom unique and correct, versus the tens of thousands of predictions that have come and gone since we humans began the practice (during the hunter/gatherer phase) of predicting the End of Days?

Because you see, (the event) Doom hasn't happened yet, no matter what the prediction, from what source. This is self-evidently true, because we are still here, still raping the FF's out of the Earth and burning them. Still multiplying, still squabbling, still coming up with a constant stream of "absolutely certain" predictions of Doom.

Image
Ezekial in the Valley of dry bones

I understand that you have computers, mathematical formulae, lots of data from instruments and observations, etc., etc. All that "stuff" that the ape tribe Shaman of 15,000 BC didn't have, he had to cast a handful of dry bones and interpret the resulting pattern to distinguish his approaching Doom.

So, please share with us what separates your particular Doom prediction from the tens of thousands of incorrect predictions of Doom before yours. I mean, you have to admit that the odds are not in your favor, none of the prior Doom predictions actually came about.

But it is a catchy song with lyrics:
Image

As for that magic prediction of how many humans can live without killing the planet, the modern computer generated figure has a low bound of 125 million (assumes no new technology, only known sustainable agrarian methods) and a high bound of 1 Billion (assumes wildly unlikely future tech). It is an interesting topic we have debated at length before this at PO.com, but one thing everybody can agree upon is that 7.3+ Billion is too many people, and the planetary ecology dies because of human overshoot. The only interesting topic really is WHEN.

Peak Oil is a symptom.

Resource depletions of all kind are just symptoms.

AGW, if real, is a symptom.

The popularity of Zombies in media is a symptom.

The confident predictors of Doom are a symptom.

I believe in Doom myself, I absolutely do. Too many people, one small planet, not enough stuff for all of us. My prediction I have mentioned already in this thread, between one and ten centuries from now, unless we choose the nuclear option.

(My <insert deity name here>, tweaking Doomies is even more fun than tweaking AGW fanboys.)
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Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 14 Oct 2016, 06:07:23

Doom isn't a 'yes or no" question.

SHORT OF A NUCLEAR WAR, THE WHOLE PLANET ISN'T DOOMED.

But certain things are doomed.

Sea ice in the Arctic Ocean is doomed. This means the entire ecology of the Arctic Ocean is doomed.

The Greenland Ice SHeet is doomed. This means 5 m of sea level rise and the doom of all coastal cities.

Going back to a a normal climate in California is doomed. This means agriculture, and forests in the Sierra Nevada, and things like that are doomed.

So not everything is doomed---just some things.
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Re: When it's over, it's over, it's over,it's over

Unread postby jesus_of_suburbia » Fri 14 Oct 2016, 06:35:37

Cid_Yama wrote:I just have to laugh now at the deniers and lukewarmers. It is happening as we speak. They can protest all they want, make up whatever scenario in their mind they want. But the meat's about to meet the metal. And all their nonsense will have been wasted breath.

Reality could care less how much you protest, or what you care to believe. Physical laws are physical laws, they are neither open to interpretation or influence. It is what it is.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6OdVYnnp0Uw

Get the fuck out of here with NTHE methane blowout crap you clown.

I remember you crowing on and on like you were some kind of authority along with what I assume were your clone accounts. That was until dissident, someone who knows what he's talking about, joined the conversation and absolutely dick slapped you. You then mysteriously vanished for a few months, likely out if embarrassment. Lo and behold, despite getting completely pantsed, you're still complete blowhard with an inflated sense of self importance.
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