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Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 19 Sep 2019, 12:43:55

Still waiting for St. Angelo to interview (with the corresponding transcript) Bozo Bedford aka ETP Bozo on petroleum thermodynamics from the oil field to the fuel tank.


Since we are almost 2,000 miles apart, it will have to wait until after Christmas.

But, if ExxonMobil continues to publish negative free cash flow, and has to borrow to pay dividends, then it's only a matter of time before major shareholders tell management to CUT & RUN from shale before it destroys their balance sheet.


Moody's is likely to end Exxon's shale rein before its stockholders get the chance.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 19 Sep 2019, 16:28:31

shortonoil wrote:Moody's is likely to end Exxon's shale rein before its stockholders get the chance.

Yeah, sure it will. Meanwhile, in the real world trend, it would seem the results re XOM credit rating from Moody's is rather positive.

https://www.moodys.com/credit-ratings/E ... ing-273500
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby SRSroccoReport » Fri 20 Sep 2019, 16:17:55

shortonoil wrote:
Still waiting for St. Angelo to interview (with the corresponding transcript) Bozo Bedford aka ETP Bozo on petroleum thermodynamics from the oil field to the fuel tank.


Since we are almost 2,000 miles apart, it will have to wait until after Christmas.

But, if ExxonMobil continues to publish negative free cash flow, and has to borrow to pay dividends, then it's only a matter of time before major shareholders tell management to CUT & RUN from shale before it destroys their balance sheet.


Moody's is likely to end Exxon's shale rein before its stockholders get the chance.


AH-HA... there you are...LOL.

Yes, indeed... the overdue ETP-THERMODYNAMICS INTERVIEW.

Unfortunately, been lots of COALS in the FIRE. But in due time, everything will be explained. Regrettably, the market and many of these POWER-SHALE OIL BULLS are going to be eating CROW. Story at ELEVEN.

Anyhow... BAZOOKA BEDFORD, I will be in touch. This information needs to be shared with those who still have an open mind and haven't yet succumbed to BRAIN DAMAGE.

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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Baduila » Tue 29 Oct 2019, 14:13:26

Its time for an update. The green dotted line is the ETP-MAP. The solid and dotted blue lines are connecting the WTI price peaks. With a delay of two years, the maxima of the oil price follow the ETP-MAP.

Not bad for a projection done in ~2013.

Image
Image Take care of the second law.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 29 Oct 2019, 14:24:21

Baduila wrote:Its time for an update. The green dotted line is the ETP-MAP. The solid and dotted blue lines are connecting the WTI price peaks. With a delay of two years, the maxima of the oil price follow the ETP-MAP.

Not bad for a projection done in ~2013.

Image

With a delay of two years? Why not just claim EVERY SINGLE graph ever published is "not bad" if you just change things around for no reason?

Did you ever take any math in school?

Hint: In the real world, the green line (MAP prediction) is completely and utterly wrong. This was already beaten pretty much to death in various ETP threads on this site.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Cog » Tue 29 Oct 2019, 19:05:24

Two bad etp doomers don't have a time machine so they can go back in time to fix all their failed predictions.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Baduila » Wed 30 Oct 2019, 14:14:32

Only one prediction has been totally wrong: The Oil Price did not raise to 100 $/barrel or higher, in contrast what you predicted.

Up to now, neither outcast nor cog has checked why ETP is necessary for oil extraction: The temperature of the earth crust is changed by moving heat out of the earth interior. The temperature equilibrium of the crust gets distorted. The yellow parts in the diagram require energy. The amount is simple to determine.

Image

Outcast, you feel yourself to be a math expert, are you able to do the calculation ? Try it for a single shale well with 60% water cut.
Image Take care of the second law.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 30 Oct 2019, 14:34:49

Baduila wrote:Only one prediction has been totally wrong: The Oil Price did not raise to 100 $/barrel or higher, in contrast what you predicted.

Up to now, neither outcast nor cog has checked why ETP is necessary for oil extraction: The temperature of the earth crust is changed by moving heat out of the earth interior. The temperature equilibrium of the crust gets distorted. The yellow parts in the diagram require energy. The amount is simple to determine.

Image

Outcast, you feel yourself to be a math expert, are you able to do the calculation ? Try it for a single shale well with 60% water cut.

Blabbering the same nonsense repeatedly doesn't make it correct.

Folks like Cog and Rockdoc and I have LONG asserted that it's financials (AKA profit over time) that determines whether oil gets produced, NOT hare brained ETP assertions.

But do carry on. Clearly the ETP crowd has convinced themselves.

In 2022 when the price of WTI oil isn't $2 or below and the world hasn't ended, you can regale us with tales of how it will be in 2032, because of heat moving out of the earth's interior. :roll:

Speaking of learning things: try googling "why is the interior of the earth hot". Then you can read about how the earth's magnetic field causes lots of heating in the earth's interior. That's why there's things like scary magama, volcanos, etc.

It's up to you to explain how your theory ignores little details like that, and yet is valid. :idea:

Oh, and quickly verifying this, I see that the earth's core is about a thousand degrees hotter than previously thought. That's a hell of a lot of extra heat, with more being produced all the time, if you're worried about the earth running out of heat to produce oil. Not to mention the giant yellow thing in the sky constantly pouring many terajoules of energy onto the earth, of course. 8)

https://www.livescience.com/29054-earth ... otter.html


Logic, data, facts, and science are things to consider, before endlessly blabbering meaningless myopic theories.


And if those simple tools are beyond you, try some common sense. All the oil produced annually is roughly a cubic mile in volume.

That's a VERY tiny amount of oil compared to the volume of the earth. With 4/3 * PI * R**3, using a radius of 4000 miles for a back-of-the-envelope estimate, I get:

1.33 * 3.14 * 64 billion cubic miles or 267 + billion cubic miles. So, even IF there weren't factors like the sun and the magnetic field heating the earth, you'd have to extract that oil for many million years before it would have a meaningful impact on the heat stored in the earth.

If you're going to wave your arms at "alarming" statistics, try getting beyond something about as silly as flat-earth conspiracy theory.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 30 Oct 2019, 15:15:54

The temperature of the earth crust is changed by moving heat out of the earth interior. The temperature equilibrium of the crust gets distorted.


For that to be true (which it isn't) the temperature that is provided to the crust from the asthenosphere and mantle would have to be static and not replacing itself. We know that to be untrue. Through time the temperature of reservoir fluids at reservoir conditions do not decrease due to production unless they are invaded with colder injected fluids. And even in that case those fluids eventually equilibrate to the temperature of surrounding rock which is driven by heat production from below...something independent of any oil production. As well by the time oil reaches the surface temperature has dropped from reservoir conditions to that approaching STP or by about 100 C. All of that temperature is lost to tubing or the surrounding wall rock.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Baduila » Thu 31 Oct 2019, 14:33:13

Oh boy, both of you don't have the faintest idea what thermodynamics is. And both are convinced to have a vast knowledge. You both have a severe Dunning Kruger Syndrom.

Rockdoc, do you earn money for understanding nothing ?

Each explanation is a waste of time.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 31 Oct 2019, 14:55:04

Oh boy, both of you don't have the faintest idea what thermodynamics is.


OK. You are suggesting that oil pulled from the ground has thermal energy that is lost during its production, and that the earths crust cools as a result of that production....is that correct?

Then please explain how that oil maintains that heat as it is brought up through tubing and put into separators and then shipped? Doesn't happen. If I walk out onto a lease today a could grab a cup of oil leaking at the surface and it would be warm not at 100 C. If that wasn't the case all those drillers back in the twenties in East Texas who ran around getting barrels of oil spurted on to them as they got wells under control would all have been in hospital.

The temperature that oil is at is imposed on it by the surrounding rock mass and that temperature comes from below, constrained from above. The rock heats the oil, not the other way around.

So precisely how does the earths crust come into a state of disequilibrium? The oil that is produced is replaced by formation water which means the temperature down there is precisely the same as it was when the oil was sitting there. If it was going into temperature disequilibrium then we would see a steadily declining bottom hole temperature through time would we not? (that doesn't happen either). Are you trying to suggest that the earth's crust is steadily cooling because of oil production? What about magma eruptions, geysers etc? Given all of that having gone on for 4 billion years if the earth wasn't maintained in relative thermal equilibrium from the mantle and asthenosphere we would be living on a cold shell rather than something that is thousands of degrees C at depth.

So please show us the proof. And yes I understand the Laws of Thermodynamics from my physics course decades ago....you are just applying them incorrectly.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Baduila » Thu 31 Oct 2019, 16:26:27

Three months ago i posted this image https://peakoil.com/forums/mid-year-etp-map-update-t74464-240.html#p1427238, without the oil production curve, but the following text:

The green dotted line (line of demand destruction) connects the maxima of the oil price per barrel since 2014. Each maxima shows the maximum oil price the world economy can afford.
The blue line, connecting the minima, shows the minimum price the oil producers can allow. When the oil price gets below the blue line, the oil producers cut in.
In April 2020 both lines clash. This indicates the begin of the steep edge of the seneca cliff of oil production. Then it will become clear that peak oil is behind us.


Image

Oil Production data are from EIA, with the two last points using OPEC data.
Image Take care of the second law.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 31 Oct 2019, 17:48:49

The green dotted line (line of demand destruction) connects the maxima of the oil price per barrel since 2014.


Other than the fact that the reason oil dropped from it's highs in 2014 had nothing whatsoever to do with affordability it had to do with the fact there was too much supply available as we have said numerous times here. Repeating the same nonsense every few months doesn't make it any more correct.

The green dotted line (line of demand destruction) connects the maxima of the oil price per barrel since 2014. Each maxima shows the maximum oil price the world economy can afford.


Which would be fine other than the fact oil is not becoming more expensive to produce, certainly not in the past two years and the breakeven price is falling, not rising.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 31 Oct 2019, 18:12:47

Baduila wrote:Oh boy, both of you don't have the faintest idea what thermodynamics is. And both are convinced to have a vast knowledge. You both have a severe Dunning Kruger Syndrom.

Rockdoc, do you earn money for understanding nothing ?

Each explanation is a waste of time.

You're COMPLETELY divorced from reality aren't you?

Rockdoc does have plenty of knowledge about oil, unlike you.

I don't, and don't pretend to. However, I CAN do simple arithmetic, whether you can grasp the consequences of things like relative sizes re how nonsensical your crustal heat claims are, or not. :roll:

And I do know a little science, and I can look basic concepts up and read about them. 8)

The more you babble the less credible you are, so by all means, carry on.

Or, here's an idea. Show where my simple math was wrong. Or show why you can ignore all other heat inputs and your energy depletion re the earth's crust is right, EVEN as removing ALL the oil annually only impacts well under one in 200 billionth of the volume of the earth.

Oh, and re your supposed knowledge of thermodynamics, once again -- you are completely ignoring the giant yellow thing in the system pouring vast amounts of energy onto the earth for the next several billion years or so. Until that burns out, it overwhelms any worries about local thermodynamics re moving a very tiny fraction of the earth's crustal material around.

But since you're so clever -- go ahead -- show us specifically re more than spewing the word "thermodynamics" why you're right and basic math and the primary heat sources re the sun and the earth's magnetic field and the heating it does don't matter.

Oh, it had better be good, because science pretty clearly backs up the obvious big picture observations re those major heat sources. :idea:

I'm predicting you can't even BEGIN to do so in a way that makes a shred of sense. But of course, it's everyone else that's stupid. :lol:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 31 Oct 2019, 20:24:16

This thread is a joke. How many ETP evangelists are left here?

ETP is long dead. Stick a fork in it.

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Yoshua » Mon 04 Nov 2019, 02:42:36

I have a kettle of boiling water. I pour cold water into that kettle. The water cooled. The heat from the stove will in time give me boiling water again.

Injecting cold water into an oil reservoir will cool the oil in the reservoir. In time the magma will heat the water and oil in the reservoir again.

The problem is that even with a constant temperature in the reservoir only on average 35 percent of the oil in the reservoirs globally can be extracted economically. The lighter oil is extracted and heavier oil remains in the reservoir.

To extract the heavier oil more energy must be transferred into the reservoir. More energy must be used to refine heavier oil. The energy cost to continue oil production increases as the quality of the oil declines.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Yoshua » Mon 04 Nov 2019, 03:49:34

The Etp Model is based on the Second Law of Thermodynamics: the increase of entropy as a process moves forward in time. To overcome the increase in entropy (decaying quality of oil) more energy must be used as the process moves forward in time.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Yoshua » Mon 04 Nov 2019, 04:17:21

Etp Model Predictions

Peak conventional oil in 2005. ✓

Convention oil peaked in 2005 and the oil price spiked in 2008 which led to the GFC. The Fed had to pump in USD 4 Trillion to save the economy.

The Energy Halfway Point in 2012. ✓

With the oil price at USD 100 right at the MAP the Arab Spring and the Eurocrisis erupted. The ECB had to pump in Euro 4 Trillion into the economy.

The Fed ends QE in 2014 and the oil price collapsed below the MAP.

The MAP predicts USD 30 oil in 2019. ✓

With WTI at 55 the world is burning down in violent riots. The Fed and the ECB restarts their QE programs and will now continue to pump in money into the economy until the system collapses.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Yoshua » Mon 04 Nov 2019, 04:25:59

The oil prices are too high for the global economy.

Something will have to break.

https://mobile.twitter.com/hks55/status ... 32/photo/1
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 04 Nov 2019, 09:34:32

With WTI at 55 the world is burning down in violent riots. The Fed and the ECB restarts their QE programs and will now continue to pump in money into the economy until the system collapses.


Everything is slowing down! GDP growth is down 62%; personal consumption down 17%; services down 50%; gross private investment down 111%; (YoY, US Commerce Dept). Since 1960 petroleum (per unit) has lost 77% of its capacity to deliver energy to the end consumer., and increasing production can no longer make up the difference. Other fossil fuels are following oil. At first oil lost enough of its energy delivery capacity that growth stopped; now it has lost enough that to maintain the economy existing assets must be consumed. The requirement for the consumption of existing assets is accelerating, and the result is that the debt is growing exponentially. The world is falling ever deeper into debt, and that is causing the monetary system to break down.

The world's economy is failing from energy starvation. The days of high growth powered by fossil fuels is over. The days of any growth powered by fossil fuels are over. The stock market is going up as our roads and bridges are falling down. The mass printing of fiat without real wealth to back it is a ploy to disguise the underlying malaise. It is a ploy that has pushed up the price of oil, and all other assets while the real income of the man on the street is going down. France is now burning along with eighteen other Nation States around the world. We are a civilization that was erected on high quality oil that is no longer there. We are a civilization on the edge of the abyss!

Let's not fool ourselves; the time to pay the piper is at hand.

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