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Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 13 Sep 2019, 08:20:09

Cherry-picking red-herring. You can pick production of about anything against the world debt and the graph will look about the same - logarithmic, or worse.


We are waiting for your copious examples of such correlations. Without substantiation we can assume that you pulled that out of your wazoo. Oil is what powers modern civilization, and oil was picked as the cherry because it is the only one on the tree. Then perhaps you are one of the disillusioned that believe the world is powered with Fairy Dust and Unicorn Farts. Oil is the proxy for all all production, including debt.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby marmico » Fri 13 Sep 2019, 08:48:12

Fairy Dust and Unicorn Farts.


That's the ETP Map.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 13 Sep 2019, 08:54:05

dissident wrote:We are in the era of diminishing returns and unconventional oil is not able to change this.


Perhaps, but ETP's conclusion that price will go lower rather than higher is bunk.

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 13 Sep 2019, 09:17:45

DAILY UPDATE (September 12th to 13th) – Mixed Real Earnings Still Were on Track for a Third-Quarter Annual Decline / Falling Gasoline Prices Depressed August CPI-U to a Gain of 0.05% in the Month, 1.75% Year-to-Year, While Also “Boosting” August 2019 PPI by 0.1% in the Month, 1.8% Year-to-Year / After Three Years of Gains, 2018 U.S. Real Median Household Income Was Stagnant / Extreme Income Variance Held in Place, Which Tends to Lead Financial and Economic Crashes / August Labor Conditions Deteriorated Sharply, in Line With the Unfolding New Recession (see Flash Update No. 7)

http://www.shadowstats.com/

The good news is: that before there is a depression there has to be a recession. At least that used to be the theory?
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 13 Sep 2019, 17:10:44

We are waiting for your copious examples of such correlations. Without substantiation we can assume that you pulled that out of your wazoo.


Here is one that actually correlates better than your ETP nonsense.....US Debt versus temperature (temperature in red with blue arrow, debt in black with purple arrow). Using the same reasoning it must be the increasing debt levels have caused temperature to rise!! :roll:

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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby radon1 » Fri 13 Sep 2019, 17:14:13

shortonoil wrote:We are waiting for your copious examples of such correlations. Without substantiation we can assume that you pulled that out of your wazoo.

No, you are just lacking education and basic reasoning ability. With the help of a bit of abstract thinking, you don't need to plot endless charts with factual data to see the point. Functions have an attribute called "power", and exponential function is far more "powerful" than most naturally occurring functions. It is so "powerful" that a linear function, or parabolic, or hyperbolic and so on, will all look about the same as ratios against the exponential function.

If oil production somehow approximates GDP growth, then it is clear production of any other commodity or goods has the same or weaker "power" than oil production, since GDP growth puts a natural limit on them. And their production/debt ratio graph should look about the same as oil's or even weaker.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby tita » Sat 14 Sep 2019, 06:12:44

shortonoil wrote:We are waiting for your copious examples of such correlations. Without substantiation we can assume that you pulled that out of your wazoo. Oil is what powers modern civilization, and oil was picked as the cherry because it is the only one on the tree. Then perhaps you are one of the disillusioned that believe the world is powered with Fairy Dust and Unicorn Farts. Oil is the proxy for all all production, including debt.


There are coupious examples of spurious correlations possible. Check this website:
https://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby asg70 » Sat 14 Sep 2019, 09:13:20

tita wrote:
shortonoil wrote:We are waiting for your copious examples of such correlations. Without substantiation we can assume that you pulled that out of your wazoo. Oil is what powers modern civilization, and oil was picked as the cherry because it is the only one on the tree. Then perhaps you are one of the disillusioned that believe the world is powered with Fairy Dust and Unicorn Farts. Oil is the proxy for all all production, including debt.


There are coupious examples of spurious correlations possible. Check this website:
https://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations


The correlation/causation trap has been pointed out numerous times since 2008 but it doesn't stop the doomer-faithful from continuing onward--blissfully ignorant. When your desire to push a given narrative is that strong you're immune to facts and logic.

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby kublikhan » Sat 14 Sep 2019, 09:17:34

Notice: EIA corrected the data issues that delayed the August Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM). The report and the data series included in the PSM are now available. We appreciate customers’ patience during this delay.
Petroleum Supply Monthly
The oil barrel is half-full.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 15 Sep 2019, 22:26:46

radon1 wrote:If oil production somehow approximates GDP growth, then it is clear production of any other commodity or goods has the same or weaker "power" than oil production, since GDP growth puts a natural limit on them. And their production/debt ratio graph should look about the same as oil's or even weaker.

There you go using logic and data and mathematical concepts again.

How can you hope to win an argument against shorty using concepts like that, when he has clever words like "wazoo" to spearhead his argument? :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 16 Sep 2019, 12:18:53

There are coupious examples of spurious correlations possible. Check this website:


Are you talking about the old classic example: woman’s hemlines, and the stock market? It takes a little more than a plot to establish a hypothesis. There has to be a high correlation coefficient, and an established physical relationship. Flies and rotting meat have a fairly good correlation, but there is no physical relationship to indicate that flies cause meat to rot. That was an old wives tale that persisted for centuries. As my old statistic professor used to say when a high correlation shows up with no physical relationship apparent, start looking for a third, as yet, undefined variable. Many significant breakthroughs have arrived as a result of that approach. For the rotting meat that approach resulted in the discovery of bacteria. Many investigators have also spent years chasing phantoms with no results.

To be valid the hypothesis established from the correlation must be testable. The sample size must also be large enough to be statically significant for the population distribution being studied. To test the hypothesis embed in graph 222a above simply shut off the world's oil supply, and see what the GDP would be? That result can be concluded "a priori" without starving 7.4 billion people to death. The probability of a false positive is so close to zero that only an obsessive compulsive idiot would deny it.

There are several of those obsessive compulsive idiots who frequent this site. They offer an opportunity to study really disturbed minds. There are also several hypothesis that state when 5%, or more of a society becomes mentally deranged the society collapses. We are likely to be testing that hypotheis in the very near future.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby SRSroccoReport » Mon 16 Sep 2019, 16:01:08

EXXONMOBIL BORROWS MONEY TO PAY DIVIDENDS

It’s quite amazing how closely the shortfall of Free Cash Flow to Dividends was made up by net debt issuance.

Here is Exxonmobil’s combined financial data for 2015-1H 2019

2015-1H 2019 Free Cash Flow = $43.7 billion
2015-1H 2019 Dividend Payout = $58.5 billion
2015-1H 2019 FCF – Dividends = $15.1 billion
2015-1H 2019 Net Debt Issuance = $14.9 billion

So, with Exxonmobil now ramping up shale, it has been forced to borrow money to pay dividends. While the Saudi Drone strike may help Exxon’s financial situation briefly, I wouldn’t count on it over the longer run.

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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 16 Sep 2019, 21:48:57

SRSroccoReport wrote:EXXONMOBIL BORROWS MONEY TO PAY DIVIDENDS

It’s quite amazing how closely the shortfall of Free Cash Flow to Dividends was made up by net debt issuance.

Here is Exxonmobil’s combined financial data for 2015-1H 2019

2015-1H 2019 Free Cash Flow = $43.7 billion
2015-1H 2019 Dividend Payout = $58.5 billion
2015-1H 2019 FCF – Dividends = $15.1 billion
2015-1H 2019 Net Debt Issuance = $14.9 billion

So, with Exxonmobil now ramping up shale, it has been forced to borrow money to pay dividends. While the Saudi Drone strike may help Exxon’s financial situation briefly, I wouldn’t count on it over the longer run.

SRSroccoReport

Let's pretend if XOM decides to cut the dividend down the road that the world will end.

You must make $billions selling financial "insight" with all that razor sharp perception you have. :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Cog » Mon 16 Sep 2019, 23:00:59

All roocobrain sells is bad advice about hoarding gold.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby StarvingLion » Tue 17 Sep 2019, 11:31:44

Cog wrote:All roocobrain sells is bad advice about hoarding gold.


Cog, your "colleague" rockdoc has revealed himself to be a battery loving Cultural Marxist. Why don't you ask your pinko friend how battery manufacture can possibly occur when you cannot secure the oil to finance it in the first place? Same goes for Nuclear.

rockdoc: "There needs to be more incentives to move towards EV's and a lot more research and development directed towards batteries and storage. Identifying the key issues that get in the way of complete acceptance (expense, battery life, all wheel drive capability etc) will help immensely. I'm convinced that along with some nuclear, wind, water etc from the renewable side of things that we could have a much more sustainable system in the not too distant future. "
Last edited by StarvingLion on Tue 17 Sep 2019, 12:01:53, edited 1 time in total.
Commie Cog: "I get 0% free money and that makes me an "investor""
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 17 Sep 2019, 11:52:44

All roocobrain sells is bad advice about hoarding gold.


what I find amusing is he already posted this very cherry picked bit of financial analysis on XOM and had a hard time defending it. Didn't stop him from posting it once again perhaps thinking everyone here has a short memory span so after a couple of weeks it would seem new again. A bit like those scam artists who keep calling your home phone telling you that the IRS is after you and you need to pay some money. It doesn't work (because most people aren't idiots) but it doesn't stop them from continuing to call. I guess all they need is one dimwit to respond and all this guy needs is one person to go to his website and buy his reports extolling the virtues of metals investment.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 17 Sep 2019, 12:01:21

rockdoc123 wrote:
All roocobrain sells is bad advice about hoarding gold.


what I find amusing is he already posted this very cherry picked bit of financial analysis on XOM and had a hard time defending it.

Yep. I was hoping if he was rejected by multiple folks/ideas, he'd begin to get the point.

Given the crowd his "advice" tends to run with, probably not. 8O
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 17 Sep 2019, 13:04:27

The Risk Of A Liquidity-Driven Event Is Rising
"It is actually quite the opposite, debt is a detractor of growth over the long-term as it diverts productive capital from investment to debt service."
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/risk- ... ent-rising

So, with Exxonmobil now ramping up shale, it has been forced to borrow money to pay dividends. While the Saudi Drone strike may help Exxon’s financial situation briefly, I wouldn’t count on it over the longer run.

SRSroccoReport



We could straight line Exxon's cash burn numbers, but straight lines in oil only work for reservoir engineers. Assuming that Shale never gets profitable (more of a certainty than an assumption) when would you expect Exxon to go cash flow negative. That would give us some insight into the time table for the fate of all of the world's oil producers.

Exxon will not be getting out of the Shale business any time soon. It needs that production to cover the decline in its conventional fields (which it can't replace) and it needs the diluent to process the conventional that it has. It is likely, however, to cut back on its Shale development as its balance sheet deteriorates. With only $44 billion in free cash flow on sales of $279 billion even a mild recession is likely to wipe out most of its free cash flow. Since Exxon is an icon in the IG bond market their entry into the Shale patch is likely to have serious repercussions on that entire market. Any thoughts​?
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby SRSroccoReport » Wed 18 Sep 2019, 21:05:49

shortonoil,

While it may be true that Exxonmobil needs Shale Oil as a cover to continue BAU, major shareholders might share that sentiment. Unfortunately, most investors in shale companies haven't realized they got HOODWINKED, but that will likely change in the next 1-2 years.

ExxonMobil is robbing Peter (Non-U.S. sector) to pay Paul (U.S. sector). As long as ExxonMobil makes enough free cash flow to pay dividends, well, it will likely continue. But, if ExxonMobil continues to publish negative free cash flow, and has to borrow to pay dividends, then it's only a matter of time before major shareholders tell management to CUT & RUN from shale before it destroys their balance sheet.

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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby marmico » Thu 19 Sep 2019, 07:01:13

most investors patreons in shale companies SRSrococReport [sic] haven't realized they got HOODWINKED, but that will likely change in the next 1-2 years.


Still waiting for St. Angelo to interview (with the corresponding transcript) Bozo Bedford aka ETP Bozo on petroleum thermodynamics from the oil field to the fuel tank.
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