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Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 26 Aug 2019, 14:50:03

Sys1 wrote:I used to think peak oil would cause civilisation collapse.
Not any more. The problem is not how much oil is left or how oil production will decrease post peak.
The problem is we have far too much oil and far too much fossil fuels easy to access, which will destroy biosphere within our lifetime.


That scenario is very likely.

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 27 Aug 2019, 15:29:16

The dollar is the world reserve currency. The dollar is needed to conduct world trade.


62% of the world's foreign held debt is denominated in dollars. The FED may be leaving soon, but the $ isn't going any where.

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.


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One Happy Meal short the box.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby jupiters_release » Thu 29 Aug 2019, 23:21:38

Sys1 wrote:I used to think peak oil would cause civilisation collapse.
Not any more. The problem is not how much oil is left or how oil production will decrease post peak.
The problem is we have far too much oil and far too much fossil fuels easy to access, which will destroy biosphere within our lifetime. There will be still plenty of oil, coal and gas when mankind will disappear.
This year in France, we had record temperatures we never had (more than 43°C in Paris), every year if not every months, global temperatures are reaching new absolute records, primal forests around the world are burning at a pace never seen ever, arctic is melting, oceans are dying. And as if it were not enough, we go on throwing CO2 in the atmosphere at 100mbpd while barely complaining about the consequences.


Guy McPherson will probably be right, yet TPTB have many convinced a mini ice age is coming.
Do not seek the truth, only cease to cherish opinions.
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Triangle of Demand Destruction

Unread postby Baduila » Fri 30 Aug 2019, 05:53:06

The green dotted line (line of demand destruction) connects the maxima of the oil price per barrel since 2014. Each maxima shows the maximum oil price the world economy can afford.
The blue line, connecting the minima, shows the minimum price the oil producers can allow. When the oil price gets below the blue line, the oil producers cut in.

Image

In April 2020 both lines clash. This indicates the begin of the steep edge of the seneca cliff of oil production. Then it will become clear that peak oil is behind us.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 30 Aug 2019, 09:49:12

The green dotted line (line of demand destruction) connects the maxima of the oil price per barrel since 2014. Each maxima shows the maximum oil price the world economy can afford.


How convenient, at least until you try to explain the oil price prior to 2014. There is zero reason to choose 2014 other than it was the highest oil price of recent years.

The blue line, connecting the minima, shows the minimum price the oil producers can allow. When the oil price gets below the blue line, the oil producers cut in.


There is zero reason to assume that the minimums you chose are the “minimum price oil producer can allow”. Over a two year period from 2016 to 2018 the breakeven price of oil in any basin that drives recent global price (major basin in Arabia, Russia, and the onshore US) did not suddenly rise by $10/bbl, not even close.

You are simply drawing lines on a chart that somehow suit an outcome you want, there is no rationale behind any of it.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 30 Aug 2019, 10:02:39

shortonoil wrote:
The dollar is the world reserve currency. The dollar is needed to conduct world trade.


62% of the world's foreign held debt is denominated in dollars. The FED may be leaving soon, but the $ isn't going any where.

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.


Image

One Happy Meal short the box.

Yeah, YOU calling people "mental" is SO credible.

Maybe if 3rd grade name calling weren't your go-to mode when people point out one of your many mistakes...

But do carry on, it's always good for a laugh.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 30 Aug 2019, 10:08:44

rockdoc123 wrote:You are simply drawing lines on a chart that somehow suit an outcome you want, there is no rationale behind any of it.

Bingo. And it's the primary game the ETPers have been playing for years. No wonder there is little connection of their predictions to reality aside from their imaginations re what they know about oil and economics.

And then there is all the detailed charts and nonsense trotted out by the ETP bozo to conclusively demonstrate how little ETP has to do with the real world, month after month, year after year.

But of course, he can always claim everyone else is crazy. Since that works so well for the folks in the loony bin, no doubt that will be a successful strategy for him maintaining yuuuuge credibility with anyone who actually cares about real world data. :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Yoshua » Fri 30 Aug 2019, 13:52:19

OPEC + did actually cut production when the oil price was at the blue line.

When the oil price hit the dotted green line there were actually protests around the world against high fuel prices.

...and that is what Baduila is saying...

There's probably much more to economy and prices than what we humans understand. We just don't know it all.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 30 Aug 2019, 13:58:27

Image

The slopes make perfect sense. The maximum affordability has to go down at the same rate that the cost of production, in energy terms, goes up. The question is; are the slopes correct? According to the Etp Model between 01/01/16 and 12/31/18 the Total Production Energy increased by 7.54%. Taking that into consideration, and just eyeballing your graph it appears the the blue line should intersect with the green line sometime around the end of 2021. Although the correlation between production, and GDP was almost perfect for more than half a century, at Rsq. = 0.94, that correlation began breaking down about 2012 at a world debt load of $113 trillion. In other words the cost of crude began losing its relationship to its affordability to the economy.

With the world now in an exponentially exploding debt situation, and the central banks performing completely insane maneuvers to avoid it, the cost of crude will become more unstable as the monetary system continues to implode. As past follies continue to compound, it shouldn't be surprising when the price of oil completely collapses. Sometime during the next couple of years is almost a certainty. Thanks for the graph.

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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby marmico » Fri 30 Aug 2019, 14:52:12

In April 2020 both lines clash.


Wow. Another triangle of doom. ROTFLMFAO.

You fell off the stage dancing with the sine curve. :lol:

post1412805.html#p1412805
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Saudis

Unread postby Baduila » Sat 31 Aug 2019, 13:37:40

The Saudis (and OPEC) begin/try to cut production if they get 60 $ or less per barrel. Because there is a spread between WTI and Brent, they cut at about 55 $/Barrel WTI.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Saudis-Need-Deeper-Cuts-To-Sustain-60-Oil.html

They must do that, because their government needs the money to run the whole state.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-economy-imf/saudi-arabia-would-need-oil-at-80-85-a-barrel-to-balance-budget-imf-official-idUSKCN1Q01N0

ARAMCO needs 40 $ Brent to be profitable. If the price falls for a long time below 40$/barrel, ARAMCO will stop all oil production forever. Then the end of the steep edge of the Seneca cliff will come.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/20 ... db676d1c02

Most LTO producers in the US need more than 55$/Barrel.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 31 Aug 2019, 14:34:15

Most LTO producers in the US need more than 55$/Barrel.


Most producers in the "world" need $55/ barrel without replacement. With replacement they would need over $125. $125 is at least three times what the economy can afford to pay, so when existing reverses are gone the pumps will shut down. But most of the world's major producers are already using EEM, or tertiary methods to keep produce elevated. That approach is only good for 2 to 20% of OOIP. Many of them have already been using tertiary methods for decades, including horizontal drilling techniques to skim remaining deposits. That Seneca cliff is going to show up sooner, rather than later.

When the true reality of the situation does become know the world's economy will go into a permanent state of shock! The smell of fear will be so strong that places like Wall Street, and the London Financial district will become virtually uninhabitable. The world seems to be ignoring everything even though the Wolf is at the door, and the pack is howling around the house. Ignorance is bliss until the monement it kills you!
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby StarvingLion » Sat 31 Aug 2019, 16:43:42

Most LTO producers in the US need more than 55$/Barrel.


HAHAHAHAHA...nevermind that there is nothing left of Shale "oil" to produce. The "price" of oil is gigantic fraud.

BW and Yoshua are on the streets selling Shale "oil" bonds as we speak. Worthless paper.

Anybody who thinks the fake price of oil will ever go up is a retard.

Rubber stamping fake money (hahah "debt" by windmills and shale "Oil") isn't a demand for oil. Its a hoax.

Have fun watching the "price" of oil go down while you'all get poleaxed.

The joke "Economy" of pressing buttons on a e-gizmo and staring into a computer monitor will soon be over.

The "price" of oil is going straight to $0
Last edited by StarvingLion on Sat 31 Aug 2019, 17:01:57, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby StarvingLion » Sat 31 Aug 2019, 16:58:40

Face it, you all got about 6 months to invent an above ground CTL refinery process to replace the shale "oil" that no longer exists or you will be in front of firing squads. Then you gots to invent the scalable Quantum Computer to control all the industrial hardware and reinvent electronics industry.

And you got fake physics from the "federal" "reserve" to helps ya.

Otherwise the $ is toast.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 01 Sep 2019, 13:47:04

shortonoil wrote:When the true reality of the situation does become know the world's economy will go into a permanent state of shock!

So are you lobbying to have your picture used with the definition of "irony"? Because the body of your posts show anything BUT you having a clue re "true reality" re economics or oil production.

Ignorance is bliss until the monement it kills you!

In your case, that's a very fortunate thing, else you'd be dead long ago. :!:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 05 Sep 2019, 11:48:46

In your case, that's a very fortunate thing, else you'd be dead long ago.


Is that another of your comments that are full of wit, and the kind of insight that comes with in-depth training, and experience? Considering all of the original contributions that you have made here; or .... well, if you ever "do" make an original contribution; on the other hand, let's just suppose that you make an original contribution here? In that event -- does anyone else see pigs flying by?
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 05 Sep 2019, 13:22:05

Most producers in the "world" need $55/ barrel without replacement. With replacement they would need over $125.


complete and utter horseshit. Talking with authority with nothing to back it up....especially disgusting since it is complete crap.

According to Rystad Energy’s UCube analysis the full-cycle break-even price for producing fields (requiring no replacement) averages at $26/bbl, for onshore Middle East (requiring additional drilling and replacement) it is $42/bbl, for North America tight oil the average across all basins for full cycle replacement is $46/bbl, for Russian onshore it is $58/bbl but with a wide range from around $30/bbl to $62/bbl. The absolute highest is oil sands at $83/bbl full cycle break even (which includes all replacement) and the highest end of that range is less than $100/bbl.


But most of the world's major producers are already using EEM, or tertiary methods to keep produce elevated.


again complete and utter BS. I've posted on this numerous times whenever you or PStarr made this claim. There are actually very few fields that are producing with Tertiary recovery methods. None in Saudi Arabia which accounts for most of the production (there is a test project of CO2 inject at Haradh but that is mainly for CO2 sequestration evaluation) and the main producers such as US tight oil aren't anywhere near looking at Tertiary recovery. You seem to know absolutely zip about the subject but keep posting as if you are an expert. I would think you would get tired of making a fool of yourself. :roll:
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 06 Sep 2019, 11:26:58

complete and utter horseshit. Talking with authority with nothing to back it up....especially disgusting since it is complete crap.


Of course another one of your subjective, and empirically unsubstantiated rants and raves. If it cost less than $55 a barrel to pump oil then that would show up in their profit margins. Those hypothetical margins that you are claiming don't exist.

You can now return to your next fray into the bloated, blustering absurd. Redefine the laws of gravity, and restate the speed of light.

The ERoEI of petroleum has now declined below 8.0:1, and the world's economy is falling apart.

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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 06 Sep 2019, 12:14:41

Of course another one of your subjective, and empirically unsubstantiated rants and raves. If it cost less than $55 a barrel to pump oil then that would show up in their profit margins. Those hypothetical margins that you are claiming don't exist. 


Well first of all Rystad Energy, BP and Ernst & Young all come up with similar numbers so I guess you should be claiming that some of the largest players from several sectors of the business don’t know what they are talking about and you do. Where is your backup for your ridiculous estimates of breakeven costs? Sorry, pulling them out of your backside doesn’t count.

Image

And as I have said here numerous times you do not have a clue how to read a balance sheet and certainly not one that is related to oil and gas E&P. Profits include non-cash related entries DD&A which can amount to numbers larger than total revenues in a particular year but have zero to do with the companies cash profits in a particular year nor their ability to reinvest that capital. Profits also are reported after reinvestment not before. E&P companies that are publicly traded always reinvest the vast majority of their cash flow into land and additional wells as their model is growth. Even the large integrated E&P companies look to have as little cash on hand on a yearly basis as possible either reinvesting into land and drilling/acquisitions or dividends.

You can now return to your next fray into the bloated, blustering absurd. Redefine the laws of gravity, and restate the speed of light.


I’m afraid you continue to demonstrate your ignorance on pretty much everything to do with oil and gas E&P. Yet you somehow think that people here will buy into your ETP nonsense regardless of that lack of understanding. Garbage in, garbage out.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 07 Sep 2019, 07:38:22

Here is the graph that I promised onlooker. TinyBics is out of business, like so may others, and the oil industry is soon to follow. I'll put it up the old fashion way for now.

The velocity of money is going down in lock step with the debt which is going up. World debt is presently growing exponentially at about $47 trillion a year. The debt is following petroleum depletion almost perfectly. It looks like things broke at petroleum's ERoEI of 8:1, or during August of this year. 6.9:1 is oil's "dead state", or the point where the "average" barrel is no longer worth taking out of the ground.

As the velocity of money falls, so also does the available liquidity in the monetary system. That will result in a failing economic system as the world's $323 trillion in debt succumbs to cascading defaults. Exponentially rising debt, the falling velocity of money, and the subsequent decline in interest rates, that include a large amount of negative yielding debt are indicators of a failing monetary system. ERoEI falling close to its "dead state" is an indicator of a failing petroleum production system.

We can expect major economic, political, and socioeconomic disruptions in the very near future. The world will appear to be going off the rails even faster than it already is!

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