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Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Cog » Tue 20 Aug 2019, 11:59:30

I forget doomers. Is it hyperinflation you are pushing this week or is it deflation? Cause I'm pretty sure they aren't the same thing.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 20 Aug 2019, 12:03:38

rockdoc123 wrote:
With no new oil coming on online to replace what we are using; the unpredictable will become very predictable. 7.4 billion predictably hungry residents are going to be acting unpredictably.

For the thousandth time, in the US oil production is being replaced ~130% on a running 5 year basis. Globally the replacement rate is around 150%. The US rates are published yearly by Ernst and Young and the BP replacement rates are identified by looking at any changes year on year with regards to oil life.

So please stop repeating this utter nonsense.

That's all the fast-crash doomers have. Cherry picking doom, with low quality citations, if any. Facts be damned. Any hint of weak numbers get promoted, and any good numbers get ignored.

And the time-frame -- in our face keeps getting moved forward, since they're perpetually wrong.

For example: 7.4 billion predictably hungry residents. With the global population at about 7.7 billion, where does that number even come from? His wonderful high quality citations list, or the concept that facts don't matter -- only the doomer narrative?

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/

Oh, and even IF oil production persistently dropped by 50%, what are the odds that the entire global population would be "perpetually hungry"? I'd say zero. (The first world, for example, not even close.) Whining about fuel costs? Whining about having to drive HEV's, PHEV's, and BEV's? Whining that they can't afford to fly on vacation? THOSE sorts of numbers might well be huge, but whining (or more generally, inconvenience) isn't starving, now is it?

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php

(Of course for doomers like armageddon, the lower surplus oil production numbers the facts show and are credibly forecast -- would imply a supply shortage and certain doom, given how he calls economic expansion "recession" if the expansion slows somewhat.) :roll:

Oh, and I'd say the odds that global oil production will drop to roughly half within the next decade are roughly zero, even IF we have a huge global recession. But with fast crash doomers, looking at historical global numbers, trends, and then using logic are no-no's, as they interfere with the false image of massive doom in our face.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby StarvingLion » Tue 20 Aug 2019, 12:13:38

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
rockdoc123 wrote:
With no new oil coming on online to replace what we are using; the unpredictable will become very predictable. 7.4 billion predictably hungry residents are going to be acting unpredictably.

For the thousandth time, in the US oil production is being replaced ~130% on a running 5 year basis. Globally the replacement rate is around 150%. The US rates are published yearly by Ernst and Young and the BP replacement rates are identified by looking at any changes year on year with regards to oil life.

So please stop repeating this utter nonsense.

That's all the fast-crash doomers have. Cherry picking doom, with low quality citations, if any. Facts be damned. Any hint of weak numbers get promoted, and any good numbers get ignored.

And the time-frame -- in our face keeps getting moved forward, since they're perpetually wrong.

For example: 7.4 billion predictably hungry residents. With the global population at about 7.7 billion, where does that number even come from? His wonderful high quality citations list, or the concept that facts don't matter -- only the doomer narrative?

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/

Oh, and even IF oil production persistently dropped by 50%, what are the odds that the entire global population would be "perpetually hungry"? I'd say zero. (The first world, for example, not even close.) Whining about fuel costs? Whining about having to drive HEV's, PHEV's, and BEV's? Whining that they can't afford to fly on vacation? THOSE sorts of numbers might well be huge, but whining (or more generally, inconvenience) isn't starving, now is it?

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php

(Of course for doomers like armageddon, the lower surplus oil production numbers the facts show and are credibly forecast -- would imply a supply shortage and certain doom, given how he calls economic expansion "recession" if the expansion slows somewhat.) :roll:

Oh, and I'd say the odds that global oil production will drop to roughly half within the next decade are roughly zero, even IF we have a huge global recession. But with fast crash doomers, looking at historical global numbers, trends, and then using logic are no-no's, as they interfere with the false image of massive doom in our face.


How do you explain the stock charts of XOM, BP, SHell, EOG in the past 6 months? Total collapse. They are going out of business, obviously. Thats why I started by account in late 2013.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 20 Aug 2019, 12:17:06

shortonoil wrote:
The world is dying of energy starvation, and the economists still believe that by tweaking interest rates that they can fix the problem. If ignorance was bliss they would all be in heaven.

With credible sources showing there is still a global liquid fuels surplus, and that one is forecast through at least 2020:

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php

With other energy sources like wind, solar, natural gas, etc. all scaling up over time:

https://yearbook.enerdata.net/total-ene ... ction.html

https://www.iea.org/weo2018/fuels/

You claiming the world is "dying of energy starvation" has to be called galactically stupid -- even for you, and that's really saying something. :idea:

But do carry on. The more you post on energy and economic doom, the less credible you are. I have faith that your credibility can reach zero soon, given your track record.

For you, if ignorance was bliss, they'd have to invent a new scale to measure it. :roll:

Given how little you understand re economics, you calling professional economists ignorant is a real belly laugh. Maybe you should pursue stand-up comedy.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 20 Aug 2019, 13:02:28

How do you explain the stock charts of XOM, BP, SHell, EOG in the past 6 months? Total collapse. 



Yeah right, total collapse. :roll: At it’s current price XOM is up 18% on its low in 2009 and the dividend yield is at 5.04%, EOG is up 180% since the bottom of the recession with a decent dividend yield for a growth company of 1.5%,

Cherry-picking historical stock price is a mugs game if you don't understand the price drivers….in mid-2014 EOG had a high of $114 but dropped to $67 by early 2016, it recovered and hit its all time high in late 2018 at $122 and it has dropped since to $77. It follows oil price and the market.

I suspect you should stay out of the stock market if you want to hold onto your own capital. :roll:
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 20 Aug 2019, 14:40:28

Yeah right, total collapse. At it’s current price XOM is up 18% on its low in 2009 and the dividend yield is at 5.04%, EOG is up 180% since the bottom of the recession with a decent dividend yield for a growth company of 1.5%,


The S&P is under 3,000 and will stay there for rest of eternity. The oil age is over, and half of the world has riots in the streets.

Bankruptcy Filings Rise Among US Energy Producers, Report
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-08- ... -producers

Image

And with SocGen's Albert Edwards warning about a deflationary bust, it seems that the inflation downturn could force commodity prices much lower, could kick off the tidal wave of energy bankruptcies during the 2020 election year.


Take a laxative, the back up is clogging up your brain!
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Yoshua » Wed 21 Aug 2019, 06:11:01

"RUSSIA'S ROSNEFT HAS NOTIFIED BUYERS OF OIL PRODUCTS THAT FUTURE TENDER CONTRACTS WILL BE IN EUROS, NOT DOLLARS, AS EARLY AS THIS YEAR - FIVE SOURCES"
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby StarvingLion » Wed 21 Aug 2019, 11:26:30

Look at Bankrupt Ponzimerica go down the drain!

Fake Fake Fake Money...nuthin but Fake Money.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 21 Aug 2019, 15:01:24

Yoshua wrote:"RUSSIA'S ROSNEFT HAS NOTIFIED BUYERS OF OIL PRODUCTS THAT FUTURE TENDER CONTRACTS WILL BE IN EUROS, NOT DOLLARS, AS EARLY AS THIS YEAR - FIVE SOURCES"

When the FX market goes away, so anyone with a brain and financial means can't hold ANY MIX of major currencies they want, long, short, hedged, etc. -- be sure and get back to us on why that matters a bit.

Given your cluelessness about economics, I won't be holding my breath for a meaningful rebuttal.

Big hint: It's not the 70's or even the 80's. Good, reliable, fast computer networks exist for all sorts of major markets, not just currencies. And futures on many of those markets trade 24x7.

Meanwhile, in the real world, the most complaints you see re the dollar is that it is too strong, re discussions of trade, etc.

So much for the random claims of folks like the ETP bozo that the dollar is "toilet paper", etc.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 21 Aug 2019, 15:33:00

Look at Bankrupt Ponzimerica go down the drain!


Did you mean PonziWorld to go down the drain. The world has $323 trillion in debt, and it is growing exponentially! Is Santa Claus, or the Chinese going to cover that? We are all going down the drain of the late Great Planet Earth. The US is nothing in comparison to the real show that is coming up.

War, disease, famine, and mass genocide are baked into this cake. Yemen is the practice run.

Now back to your fantasy reality.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Yoshua » Thu 22 Aug 2019, 01:45:25

The dollar is the world reserve currency. The dollar is needed to conduct world trade.

The U.S has weaponized the dollar by threatening to impose sanctions on European companies that take part in the Nord Stream 2 project or conduct trade with Iran, by cutting them of the dollar payment system...which would mean a death kneel to those companies.

Now...if the dollar wasn't needed to conduct world trade...things would change?

I don't know why Russia would want to switch from the dollar to the euro. The euro is hardly a safe haven with a weak Eurozone and insolvent banks.

The Russian decision might have more to do with trying to break down the Atlantic alliance and the Western banking/ financial cartel.

The Fed had to pump in trillions of dollars into the European banks after the GFC trough swap lines to save the U.S and European interconnected banking system. Things are complex out there in the "real world".
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Yoshua » Thu 22 Aug 2019, 03:30:29

London City is the financial center of the world, twice as big as New York. London City uses the dollar in its financial operations. The Eurodollar market (Off- shore dollar market) is a USD 30 Trillion market.

Hong Kong is another Eurodollar financial center. Just by coincidence Britain will have a hard Brexit at the end of October, while Hong Kong is facing mass protests and Chinese corporations are defaulting on their dollar denominated debt...while there's a trade war between the U.S and China.

The Eurodollar market is unregulated and very fragile. I don't know what's going on, but things are starting crack in the Eurodollar market.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 23 Aug 2019, 08:17:10

The Eurodollar market is unregulated and very fragile. I don't know what's going on, but things are starting crack in the Eurodollar market.


The FED is attempting to repatriate their dollars before the SHTF. At a world Debt/ GDP ratio of 349% that won't be long in coming. At $4 trillion a year it doesn't look like they are going to make it? There is going to be a lot more claims on US wealth than there will be wealth to cover them. Powell had better spend more time in the "help wanted" section of the paper.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Yoshua » Mon 26 Aug 2019, 04:00:24

TIP/TLT pointing at an oil price crash...and this time all support levels are broken.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EC3VSO3WwAA ... name=large
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 26 Aug 2019, 10:49:35

TIP/TLT pointing at an oil price crash...and this time all support levels are broken.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EC3VSO3WwAA ... name=large


The oil market has been as phony as the stock market for some time. They have both been held together with FED supplied baling twine, and duck tape. The debt curve turned up very sharply in 2006; the same time that black oil production peaked. That is not a coincidence. After taking about 5 mb/d off the market by crushing Venezuela, and Iran there is no place remaining from which to reduce supply. The next crisis, which is going to be one for the record books, will bring the price of oil back to the MAP. At $28 the industry will begin to shutdown around the globe, and the age of oil will have been completed.

The ERoEI of petroleum is now below 8.0 : 1. World debt has passed $323 trillion; the slope of the curve is 88°. The next can kick hits the wall!

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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 26 Aug 2019, 13:04:38

Yoshua wrote:TIP/TLT pointing at an oil price crash


So terrifying.

Image

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 26 Aug 2019, 13:19:04

asg70 wrote:
Yoshua wrote:TIP/TLT pointing at an oil price crash


So terrifying.

Yes, the "economics expert" thinks interest rate ETF's are pointing at an oil price crash.

As if future oil prices are at the CENTER of interest rate fluctuations.

And to think adults keep on posting total nonsense like this month after month, year after year, and expect to be taken seriously.

Of course, then we have examples of similar behavior re shorty, armageddon, and the fast crash doomer crowd overall, so never mind, I guess.

I suppose from time to time, the sheer scale of the stupidity just jars me, even coming from that crowd.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Yoshua » Mon 26 Aug 2019, 13:54:22

It is all connected. A beautiful but gloomy web.

Looks as if are headed for deflation not seen before. The central banks have countered deflation with ZIRP and QE before. Shortonoil is suggesting that the Fed won't do it this time. That would lead to collapse of weaker nation around the world.

Well...we will just have to wait and see what happens. EM currencies have started to break down again as seen by the contraction of the global money supply in dollar terms.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 26 Aug 2019, 14:05:27

Yoshua wrote:It is all connected. A beautiful but gloomy web.

Looks as if are headed for deflation not seen before. The central banks have countered deflation with ZIRP and QE before. Shortonoil is suggesting that the Fed won't do it this time. That would lead to collapse of weaker nation around the world.

Well...we will just have to wait and see what happens. EM currencies have started to break down again as seen by the contraction of the global money supply in dollar terms.

Correlation is NOT causation.

Try learning for a change.

Shortonoil suggests lots and lots of things. 99% of it is nonsense, and his track record is essentially zero. Do you also listen to flat earthers and their ilk because they suggest things?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Sys1 » Mon 26 Aug 2019, 14:31:20

I used to think peak oil would cause civilisation collapse.
Not any more. The problem is not how much oil is left or how oil production will decrease post peak.
The problem is we have far too much oil and far too much fossil fuels easy to access, which will destroy biosphere within our lifetime. There will be still plenty of oil, coal and gas when mankind will disappear.
This year in France, we had record temperatures we never had (more than 43°C in Paris), every year if not every months, global temperatures are reaching new absolute records, primal forests around the world are burning at a pace never seen ever, arctic is melting, oceans are dying. And as if it were not enough, we go on throwing CO2 in the atmosphere at 100mbpd while barely complaining about the consequences.
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